Moneyball is out in theaters. Lots of people consider it a sports movie; but, it is so much more.
Yes, it is the film version of the book by Michael Lewis (which was a pretty good read). Still, underneath the sports story, it is about finding and refining an edge (or sustainable competitive advantage).
If you've ever thought "if I'm so smart and talented, how come I'm here"? You're not alone.
This is a movie about someone who "should" have been a star player ... but never quite got there. Instead, he moved up to the front office of a pro team - and made his mark there, differently than he expected.
The big idea? Rather than following conventional wisdom, find something that gives you an edge. For example, If you ignore a lot of the obvious flaws that damage players in the eyes of professional scouts (bad legs, can't field, too thick in the middle, likes strip clubs or gets high too often), and you focus instead on a single, telltale metric — the percentage of times that they get on base — then tons of players who don't cost very much will turn out to be winners. What would happen if you built an entire team out of these green-diamond misfits?
Where there are undervalued assets to exploit, there are by implication overvalued ones to avoid. Sounds like business or trading, doesn't it? In any case, the scope and scale of the overvaluation is often so large, learning to identify and exploit those situations can be a winning recipe.
Here is a video trailer of the movie.
The underlying message is to focus a critical eye on everything you do and be vigilant about the process, reassessing, challenging assumptions and constraints to find a way that works for you.
What Is the State of the Economy [Infographic]
Walmart just re-instated its Layaway plan for cash-starved consumers. That sends an interesting message; but so did billionaire investor George Soros. Speaking on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund meeting, Soros said that the crisis is worse than the global financial crisis in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008.
Is It Really That Bad?
Thought this was helpful in setting context (sort of an "X" marks the spot; "we are here" graphic) for several key economic and market indicators.
Summary of Market indicators.
So, in general, corporate debt has moved to the high end of the historical range and the VIX has risen aggressively higher, just above the historical range. Interest rates remain in typical ranges. Meanwhile, mortgage delinquencies continue to come down slightly in second quarter 2011. Overall, U.S. equity markets continued to fall in August, with the Russell 3000® Index returning -6.0% for the month.
Yet, things might be getting a little bumpier.
Another Indicator Shows How Volatile Things Have Become.
We just saw the biggest weekly move in 30 year bond since Black Monday (which happened way back in 1987).
30-Year bond rates moved more than three standard deviations this week. Zero Hedge points out that this move can be looked at as a 7 standard deviations of a percentage move basis, given how low rates are at this point.
So much for stability.
Maybe this will make you feel better? Global economic policy-makers gathered, this weekend, for the annual meeting of the IMF. Publicly, they tried to sound united as they try to calm financial market concerns about European sovereign debt and the region’s fragile banks. Word is Europe would do “whatever is necessary” to resolve the crisis. Feeling better already; don't you?
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