Capitalogix

Fed Treasury Holdings Set to Surpass China - Is That a Contest We Want to Win?

According to Bloomberg,the Federal Reserve and Japanese investors are poised to pass China and become America’s largest creditors following efforts from U.S. policy makers and the Bank of Japan to stimulate growth.

This chart shows the U.S. central bank’s Treasury holdings have risen to a record $821.2 billion, approaching China’s $846.7 billion. The figure for Japan is $821 billion, the most ever. China overtook both the Fed and Japan in 2008 as the communist nation bought dollars to hold down the yuan as a way to aid exporters, funneling the greenbacks into U.S. debt.

Does it seem strange to you that we are about to be our own biggest creditor?

Perhaps, as a sovereign nation, it makes sense if you plan on printing money to pay it back.

Economics Doesn't Always Make Sense.

Related articles

• America Is Now Making Out Like A Bandit Selling Bonds To China (businessinsider.com)
• Obama Bond Demand Insatiable With Japan to Pass China (businessweek.com)
• G-20 to Avoid 'Competitive Devaluation,' Leaders to Prod China (businessweek.com)
• The Fed's Mission Creep - Taking Too Many Roles Means Doing None of Them Well (nakedcapitalism.com)
• QE2: Yabba Dabba Doooooooo! (ritholtz.com)

Capitalogix Commentary 10/25/10 - Don't Fight the Fed

Barry Ritholz had a great quote this week.

"If your job is to identify opportunities and risks in the market, you have to recognize that when the Fed is pouring fuel on the fire, when they send their minions out to discuss the Greenspan put, some people rush for the fire hoses ... but my job is to go grab some marshmallows and sticks and head over to the Boy Scout jamboree campfire.  If your job is a policy analyst, well that’s a different situation. But if you’re an asset manager, you can’t fight the tape constantly. You have to recognize when massive Federal Reserve liquidity is going to goose the market. But I’m not going to argue with people who say this ends badly. Hey, every bull market eventually ends badly. You know, I can’t tell you if it’s a 25% correction or down 1,000 [points]. But you know what? You’ll have plenty of time to make that decision. Right now, as long as they are giving us an opportunity to make some hay, you have to participate while the sun is shining."

Dow Stalls With High Volume Near April High.

With a surge from 10,000 to 11,200, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading near its April highs and close to a 52-week high. However, it has started to stall with high volume. The chart shows the Dow battling the 11100 area with above average volume the last seven days. Arthur Hill notes that the trend since late August is still up.  Nonetheless, a high volume stall could give way to a short-term reversal that starts a correction. High volume is often present at or near inflection points.

 

The yellow areas on the chart show volume surges that occurred at turning points.

For now, the Dow has yet to show any signs of weakness on the price chart. The Average established support at 10,900 with two lows over the last few weeks. This support level looks similar to the April support level. Notice how the April support break provided a clear signal. The bulls are in good shape as long as current support holds. A move below 10900 would argue for a correction that would be expected to retrace a portion of the prior advance.

Are there any other clues we can watch?

How Does the Dollar Affect the Dow?

Looking at the charts below, it is easy to see that there is a strong inverse correlation between the U.S. Dollar and the Dow. According to TSP Talk, this is not always the case ... but when it is, it does assist us to predict direction changes.


The upcoming quantitative easing (QE2) by the Fed could be seen as a catalyst for the dollar's decline, as more money being pumped into the system means a weaker dollar. If QE2 is priced-in to the market already, then we could have a “buy the news” reaction in the dollar, which in turn would likely hurt the stock market.  In the mean time, the trend is clear.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Industrialized Nations Target Currency Policies. (WashingtonPost)
• Why You Should Feel Up When the Dollar Is Down. (TechReview)
• AIG Raises $17.8 Billion in Record Hong Kong IPO. (BusinessWeek)
• Flush With $51 Billion in Cash, What's on Apple's Shopping List? (NYTimes & Forbes)
• Ten Laws of Technical Trading From John Murphy. (StockCharts)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Sun Tzu: The Best Leadership Teacher Of All Time?  (Forbes)
• Coffee May Combat High Blood Pressure. (WebMD)
• 10 Most Expensive Zip Codes: Monocles & Top-Hats Not Included. (Advisor)
• Should You Nap at Work If You Really Need One?  (Newser)
• Obama Booked to Appear on Jon Stewart's 'Daily Show' & Mythbusters. (EW)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Related articles

• "Dollar hits fresh 15-year-low against yen - Yahoo! News" and related posts (signaleer.blogspot.com)
• Time to Buy Into the Market as Dollar Keeps Falling (minyanville.com)
• Market Internals Suggest A Correction Ahead (tradersnarrative.com)
• Has the Market Priced in QE2 Already? (pragcap.com)

Global M&A Deal Activity Has Increased 38 Percent This Year

The Q3 2010 IntraLinks Deal Flow Indicator™ (DFI) was just released and reports a 38 percent increase in global M&A deal activity in Q3 2010 versus Q3 2009. In the last quarter, deal activity is up nine percent compared to Q2 2010, a 68 percent increase from the Q1 2009 low.

Results show six straight quarters of growth in M&A deal volume, with a 68 percent increase from Q1 2009

The overall positive trends are consistent with the following factors in the marketplace:

• General improvement and stability in the market
• Impending tax environment changes and stockpiles of committed capital have provided the return of private equity buyers and sellers
• Reduced strategic buyer fear of “double dip” recession resulting in more exploration of opportunities to supplement slow organic growth prospects and enter new markets.

Here is a chart.

Read the Q3 2010 IntraLinks Deal Flow Indicator at www.intralinks.com/dealflow.

Related articles

• Middle-Size M&A Deals Are Back, Barclays' Parker Says (businessweek.com)
• Around the investment globe in 5 minutes (investmentpostcards.com)
• IntraLinks Finally Gets the IPO Prize (dailyfinance.com)

Capitalogix Commentary 10/18/10 - Are Expectations Priced In Yet

Well, it is possible to dig out of a big hole.

Bernanke Outlines 'Case for Further Action' to Spur Economy Forward.

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has some ideas about pumping more money into the flagging recovery to get us out of a different kind of hole.  In talks last week, he clearly presents the case for more action.

• He predicts a weak recovery and continued high unemployment.
• Bernanke talks about a mandate-consistent 2% inflation rate -- further emphasizing this idea that the Fed will aggressively target positive inflation.

Barry Ritholz posted a word cloud of the speech.  It speaks for itself.

You can read Bernanke's whole speech here.

According to the WSJ, the Fed sent an even clearer message in its written remarks.  How? Bernanke used italics only four times in the report.  Do those four instances constitute a 'font of wisdom' message from the Fed chairman. Let's look at the message.

First, Mr. Bernanke said the Fed takes its cues from two primary objectives: the "longer-run sustainable rate of unemployment" and the "mandate-consistent inflation rate." He later made clear what the Fed thinks about both right now: Inflation is "too low" and unemployment "too high."

That makes further Quantitative Easing pretty much a given, to the relief of investors who have already priced it in with a 12% surge in the S&P 500 since late August.

However, some commentators (like David Rosenberg) are skeptical about how much of the gain is priced-in already.  His message: Sell the news, Quantitative Easing will do more harm than good.

Market Commentary

Even though stocks are overextended after a seven week run, I have not yet seen compelling evidence of weakness that would signal the start of a correction or pullback.

Nonetheless, I'm watching a few things closely.  For example, we are seeing some negative divergences in the banking and financial sectors.  They have not enjoyed the same success as the rest of the market over the last several weeks, and this may be telling us something.

On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 Index (comprised of the large capitalization tech stocks) is leading the move higher. The recent strength in this index not only made a new 52-week high last week, it also hit levels not seen since late 2007.  Should the S&P 500 Index follow this leader, the short-term future looks good.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Currency Wars Prove Decoupling Is a Myth. (MarketWatch)
• IMF Cuts U.S. & World 2011 Growth Outlook.  (StreetInsider)
• Why Is Wall Street Like a Church? Buffett Supplies The Answer. (InestmentNews)
• Scary Smart: The Next Trillion-Dollar Industry. (Forbes)
• Obama's Fed Nominee Wins Nobel Prize. (TDB)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Google's Billionaire CEO Eric Schmidt Sits Down with Stephen Colbert. (Forbes)
• Heavy Drinkers Outlive Non-Drinkers, Study Finds. (Time)
• De-Bunking Urban Myths: At Snopes, Rumors Are Held Up to the Light. (NYTimes)
• Is the 2nd Generation iPad Coming This Holiday Season? (iPadGuide)
• Cyberwar: Implications of the Stuxnet "Cyber-Missile". (Economist & Eset)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Related articles

• What Bernanke left out (ftalphaville.ft.com)
• El-Erian: What did Bernanke tell us this morning? (ftalphaville.ft.com)
• Fed Is Fooling Itself With Inflation Targets (minyanville.com)

The Big Mac Index - A Feast of Burgernomics

Image by Simon Miller via Flickr

The Economist's Big Mac index seeks to make exchange-rate theory more digestible.  They say it is arguably the world's most accurate financial indicator to be based on a fast-food item.

The Big Mac index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), according to which exchange rates should adjust to equalize the price of a basket of goods and services around the world. For them, the basket is a burger ... a McDonald’s Big Mac.

According to this measure, the most undervalued currency is the Chinese yuan, at 40% below its PPP rate.  In China, a McDonald’s Big Mac costs just 14.5 yuan on average, the equivalent of $2.18 at market exchange rates. In America, the same burger averages $3.71.

The tensions caused by currency misalignments prompted Brazil’s finance minister to complain last month that his country was a potential casualty of a “currency war”. The Swiss, who avoid most wars, are in the thick of this one. Their franc is the most expensive currency on our list.

The table below shows by how much, in Big Mac PPP terms, selected currencies were over- or undervalued.

The index is supposed to give a guide to the direction in which currencies should, in theory, head in the long run. It is only a rough guide, because its price reflects non-tradable elements ­such as rent and labor. For that reason, it is probably least rough when comparing countries at roughly the same stage of development.

Which Currencies Are Beating-Up On the Dollar?

You know the dollar has been in freefall since the middle of the summer. BusinessInsider posted a chart, from Morgan Stanley, showing which currencies have appreciated the most since then.

The big winner? The Swedish Krona. Note that the much-hyped yen is just in the middle of the pack.

Related articles

• What is PPP or Purchasing Power Parity? (brainz.org)
• Dollar Falls to 15-Year Low Versus Yen on Fed Policy Outlook (businessweek.com)
• Asian Currencies Have Seventh Weekly Gain as Growth Lures Funds (businessweek.com)
• Global Finance Chiefs Fail to Resolve Currency Spat (businessweek.com)

Capitalogix Commentary 10/11/10 - Until Sellers Get Bold

Something's got to give - job growth and spending swing in the balance.

The job loss situation continues to get worse.  This is still one of the scariest charts I've seen.  And the numbers continue their trend of downward revisions.

 

Market Commentary.

The markets continue higher despite concerns about the economy.  Remember, the markets do not reflect what is happening in the economy (nor are they supposed to).  Markets reflect the expectations and speculations about the markets themselves. 

There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, and if we don't get selling pressure -- then it doesn't take much to push things higher. 

The S&P 500 Has Risen Back to Its Down-Trend Line.

The bigger picture shows that the S&P 500 Index has rallied back up to the trend-line from its 2007 highs.  Bulls will likely feel more confident if price can stay above this level.

How high can it go?  This is a likely area for Bears to try to sell.  Not only are we at overhead resistance, but the market is getting overbought.

How Can You Measure Whether the Market Is Overbought?

More than 88% of all stocks traded on the NYSE are above their 50-day moving average.  We have seen similar levels three times in 2010, all resulted in large sell-offs. 

The push higher will continue until sellers get more bold.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Propelling the Profit Comeback - Big Earnings From Lower Revenue. (WSJ)
• Wall Street’s Profit Engines Are Slowing Down. (NYTimes)
• Bernanke Says Fed's Additional Asset Purchases Improve Economy. (Bloomberg)
• Where Every Major Country Is in the Global Debt Cycle. (BusinessInsider)
• Just Manic Enough - Seeking Perfect Entrepreneurs. (NYTimes)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• A Genuine 'Elixir of Life' Extends Mouse Lifespans 12%. (Telegraph)
• Billionaires' Ball: 7 Intriguing Facts From the 'Forbes 400'. (TheWeek)
• Why Larry Kudlow Is Angry About The Obama/Rahm Hug. (Dealbreaker)
• 'Glee' Topples Beatles Record for Most Hit Singles. (RollingStone)
• The Photo Making People Rethink Chicken Nuggets. (Salon)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

 

Related articles
• "The Riskiest Market I've Ever Seen" (fool.com)
• Price Overbought But Neutral Breadth (bespokeinvest.com)
• Cumulative Breadth Not Keeping Up With Indexes (tradersnarrative.com)
• Chaikin Money Flow: An Early Reversal Sign (minyanville.com)

Capitalogix Commentary 09/27/10 - Still Following the Script

The market followed it's well-orchestrated script last week. After finally pushing above the key resistance level, there was a pause, as we waited for buyers to jump in and rally things higher. However, the market saw little real buying, and prices drifted back down to re-test the 1020 support level. When the sellers didn't jump at the opportunity, it was time for another gap higher.  And that is exactly what we got.

What Does Wall Street Sentiment Show?

The weekly Wall Street Sentiment Survey is unique because the poll is taken after the close on Friday, and those polled are asked only to predict where the market will close as of the end of the following week -- up, down, or neutral (no opinion). In other words, everyone is on the same page, and only short-term projections are solicited.

Carl Swenlin notes that bearish readings of greater than 65% often precede price tops by a week or two. Reliability seems to be enhanced if a high percentage of bears occurs during an advance.


The most recent reading of 75% bears has occurred during a modest advance, so it is probably a good idea to curb bullish enthusiasm.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Volcker is Pessimistic, Says 'Financial System Is Broken'. (Dealbook)
• The Housing Crisis: A New Wave Of Distressed Home Sales. (WP)
• Do B-of-A Layoffs Signal Weakness in Investment Banking and M&A? (Fox)
• Blockbuster Files for Bankruptcy. (Dealbook)
• Dell Looks For $60 Billion in Revenue This Year. (Reuters)

• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Bill Gates Tops Forbes 400 Ranking of Richest Americans With $54 Billion. (Bloomberg)
• Is that Bill Gates Mug-Shot Hiding in Outlook 2010? I'll Bet He Didn't Know. (arstechnica)
• Women Apologize More Frequently Than Men: Here's Why. (ScientificAmerican)
• Michael Douglas Cashes-In Again on No. 1 'Wall Street'. (USAToday)
• Myths That Everyone Believes. Well, not "Everybody" ... (MyDoubts)

• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Sentiment Overview: Week Of September 23rd, 2010 (tradersnarrative.com)
• Job Change Post-Recessions (ritholtz.com)
• Comfort Zone Investing: What I Think the Markets Are Saying (bloggingstocks.com)
• The 10 Best Quotes From Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps (businessinsider.com)
• How Oliver Stone Got the Greed Right (businessweek.com)

Putting the Great Recession's Duration Into Context.

This cartoon made me smile. 

 

Are you over the recession?

 Earlier this week, the National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of recession dates) declared that the recession that began in December 2007, ended in June 2009.

For some perspective on the recession just past (a.k.a. the "Great Recession"), Chart of the Day illustrates the duration of all US recessions since 1900. There are a couple points of interest. Of the 22 recessions that occurred over the past 110 years, the most recent recession is tied for fifth in terms of duration. It is also worth noting that the recession just passed was above average in duration and the longest since the Great Depression.

 

 Well, now that the Great Recession is over, the rest should be easy ... right?

What About the Economy - How Did It Do in the Third Quarter?

Clearly, unemployment and housing are two issues that need to improve to kickstart the economy.  Moreover, economic growth in the second quarter slowed to an anemic 1.6% from 5.0% in the December quarter, and 3.7% in the first quarter. 

Because of this, the Fed has now signaled next round of Quantitative Easing, which likely will send the U.S. Dollar and bond yields to new lows, while sending stock and commodity prices materially higher.

Do You Care if the Market Moves Because of Intervention?

From my perspective, it doesn't matter that intervention is taking the place of the invisible hand and free-market pricing. From a traders perspectives, price is price. And, as I've discussed before, it also makes sense from a practical standpoint. If intervention is the policy, then it is best for it to happen during periods of slow market activity (because it's easier and cheaper to accomplish with less resistance).

Nonetheless, it's also interesting to note how little organic buying and selling is happening in the equity markets. If you remove the moves made by (or on behalf of) governments, the trading required by ETF's or indexes, and the volume that simply comes from program trading or high-frequency trading ... there's really not a lot of interest in the equity market right now.

In contrast, however, asset classes like gold and bonds are seeing a lot of interest.

But, if you are looking for something positive, remember that the "powers that be" officially declared the recession over.

Related articles by Zemanta

• A Complete Look At The History Of Recessions In America (businessinsider.com)
• David Rosenberg: Here's Why The NBER's Declaration Of The Recovery Is A Joke (businessinsider.com)
• Consumer Metrics: Double Dip or Banana Split? (jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com)

Capitalogix Commentary 09/20/10 - Why a Gap-Up is Likely

When you have a hammer ... every problem looks like a nail.

Why Do the Big Gains Come on Monday Mornings?

Bespoke posted an interesting piece that points out that much of the market gains this year occurred on Monday morning gaps.  Since the start of the year, there have been 11 times that the S&P 500 index gapped higher by at least 0.5% to start the week.  Looking at the equity market's performance for the rest of the day and the rest of the week shows a mixed picture.

How can you explain the government's continued interventions?  If the government believes that intervening in the market is in the public's best interest, then the best way to push the market higher is to do it during light futures trading periods (like weekends or after-hours).  Why?  Because it takes less capital (and thus costs less to do it) after-hours than it would have during periods of thicker trading. 

Remember, this is a free market; so if the market "disagrees" with the push higher, then sellers can freely take their profits or positions. The bigger issue, here, is that even though the markets have been pushed higher, we still haven't gotten to the point that triggers selling volume.

Monday seems like a good time to expect the next gap up.  It would likely get prices above the clearly drawn line in the sand. 

What Do the Charts Show?

The S&P 500 is testing the top of its four month trading range, sitting just under resistance.  Will the third time be the charm, or will there be a sell-off from this triple-top ?

The past two times we saw failed rally attempts on declining volume before the market cratered.  A sustained move above the 1140 level will likely give the index plenty of room to rally. We'll see.

Sentiment Has Flipped to Bullish.

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey is interesting to watch. Retail investors are notoriously wrong at market turning points.  Consequently, many look at extreme readings of the AAII Sentiment Survey as a contrary indicator.  So, where is it now?

Bullish sentiment (meaning expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months) rose 7.0 percentage points to 50.9%. This is the highest level of optimism since August 13, 2009. The historical average is 39%.

Bearish sentiment (meaning expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months) fell 7.4 percentage points to 24.3%. This is the lowest level of pessimism since December 31, 2009.

Not only is the data at extreme levels, it also represents an abrupt sentiment reversal. Just four weeks ago in the late August reading of the AAII Bull Ratio (the percentage of bulls divided by the percentage of bulls and bear) fell below 30%. That level of pessimism is often seen at the turning point of significant market bottoms.

In contrast, now we are seeing the opposite side of the sentiment spectrum.  The current reading of 51% bulls and only 24% bears, results in a bull ratio of 68% - the highest for the whole year.  That level of optimism is often seen at the turning point of significant market tops.

As you can see on the chart, in recent years, we’ve seen this level reached only a handful of times: in late December 2009, May 2008, and October 2007. A quick glance at the chart of the S&P 500 will tell you that all of those instances were much better times for selling rather than buying.

Another market getting a lot of attention lately is Gold. 

Soros: Gold "Not Safe".

Billionaire financier George Soros said last week that while gold prices might continue to rise after hitting record highs, he renewed a warning that gold is the "ultimate bubble".  With economic and fiscal weakness crimping the developed world, Soros said all investments are at risk because "this is a period of great uncertainty so nothing is very safe." For more of his observations, watch this video.

 

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Which Sector Do Experts Believe Will Lead the Next Bull Market? (Barrons)
• Senate Clears $30B Small-Business Measure. (Newser)
• The 10 Biggest Myths About Gold. (SmartMoney)
• Pimco Makes an $8.1B Bet Against Deflation. (InvestmentNews)
• Why Men Do Worse Than Women As Investors? (Forbes)

• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Bull Market in Men's Cosmetics: Just Don’t Call it “Makeup”. (NYTimes)
• Poll: 1-in-5 Incorrectly Think Obama is a Muslim. (Newser)
• 1st Marijuana TV Ad Airs on a Fox Affiliate in CA: Smell the Taxes? (SFGate)
• Japanese Men Flocking to Resorts With Video-Game Virtual Girlfriends. (TheWeek)
• The 20 Richest People of All Time.  The list might surprise you.  (BusinessInsider)

• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Soros: China Saved The Euro (businessinsider.com)
• Chart Analysis on GLD (by Mike Paulenoff) (slopeofhope.com)
• S&P on Verge of Correction as Gold, Silver Challenge New Highs (minyanville.com)

Capitalogix Commentary 09/13/10 - Pavlov's Banker

President Obama promised to roll-out “new ideas” to boost growth and spur hiring during an economy-focused trip to the Midwest. He says the economy is moving in “the right direction; we just have to speed it up.”

Consequently, the President is asking Congress to help small businesses by passing legislation that includes $12 billion in tax breaks and $30 billion worth of aid to free up credit. The question, of course, is whether the White House can turn these ideas into a political reality.

Seems to me I've seen this play a few times.

Ed Stein reminds: "Every time these guys refuse to lend money, the government ponies up more billions. If it were me, I'd keep playing that game until the Treasury was empty, which apparently is exactly what the bankers are doing. There's a reason why they're rich."

Market Commentary

The markets continued higher on light trading.  We are coming into the top of the consolidation zone.

There is not much to say, other than we are approaching a clear decision-zone.  A sustained move above the 1040 level will most likely trigger some real buying.

Sign of the Times: McDonalds Hitting All-Time High.

Here is something we haven't seen often lately, a stock hitting all-time highs.  Well, McDonalds recently hit $75.13 which is a long way from the $13 it hit in 2003.  Must be the special sauce?

Successful Patterns.

Why do patterns work? 

Elephants leave tracks ... and smart traders follow the big money.

Large traders like governments, sovereign wealth funds, or a mutual fund can affect markets while they buy or sell; however, when they're done, some other group's strategy becomes the dominant force.

It is important to understand "who is in control"  ... not necessarily why they are trading.

That means you don't have to figure out every bit of information or rationale behind their strategy in order to make money.

For example, if you were about to walk into a movie theater, but were suddenly confronted with hundreds of people running in the other direction screaming, you don't have to understand exactly why it's happening in order to respond intelligently.

On a superficial level, that's the basis of trend following.  It is also an example of pattern recognition.

You Can Find Patterns Everywhere.

If you don't believe there is a consistent formula for success, then you should watch this collection of songs made-up from the same four chords.  The video is from an Australian Comedy group, called "Axis of Awesome".

Quite clever.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Goldman's Hedge Fund Factory Closing Due to New Regulatory Limits? (MarketWatch)
• U.S. Economy Slips to 4th in W.E.F.'s Competitiveness Rankings. So Who's #1? (ABC)
• Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds: Another Great Michael Lewis Piece. (VanityFair)
• The Scariest Boring Phrase In Finance: "Sovereign Credit Spreads Are Widening". (NPR)
• MBAs Are For Wusses: In Israel, Start-Ups Fight for Army Veterans. (Economist)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Putting Things in Perspective: The World's Oldest Living Things. (TED)
• Breath Like the Rest of the World: Fresh Air for Sale in Hong Kong. (GreenBlog)
• Army Yoga: Making Soldiers Fit to Fight Without the Situps. (NYTimes)
• Re-Thinking American Options About Iran. (Stratfor)
• Mate Selection: Identifying Which Dance Moves Make Men Attractive to Women. (Economist)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

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• Obama Pledges New Measures to Boost Economic Growth and Hiring (businessweek.com)
• Asia Stocks Rise for Second Week as Jobs Reports Fuel Optimism (businessweek.com)
• Ultra-Rich in Finance Are Meaner Than Rest of Us: Matthew Lynn (businessweek.com)
• Sunday links: past as prologue (classic.abnormalreturns.com)