Web/Tech

  • The U.S. Is Back On The Moon!

    When I was young, the Space Race captured the hearts and souls of Americans.  But, for the past few decades, it was in the background.  Recently, that has changed.  The space race is getting hot again.  Resources are pouring into this area, and SpaceX is leading the pack. 

    In 2018, I shared excitement that the boosters he used were reusable.  Today, people are talking about how his ship, Starship, could render other rocket programs obsolete. 

    Fifty-one years after we last landed on the moon, the U.S. is back, and it wasn’t Elon, but the private company Intuitive Machines finally accomplishing the feat. 

    Odysseus, the unmanned lander, is now sending data back to Earth. 

    Despite the massive leapfrog in technology over the past 51 years, this is still a massive achievement for several reasons.  It was done by a private company, it was still very expensive, it precedes a 2026 manned flight from NASA, and it’s the first commercial flight – not just from the U.S. – to make it to the moon.  The trip’s goal is to research the area NASA plans to use for an upcoming mission.  They believe there are beads of frozen water in the area, which could help sustain a permanent settlement. 

    For many years, landing on the moon wasn’t getting any money.  Money was scarce.  We brought back over 800 pounds of moon rock on our last visit, and what little money there was went to more novel missions.  The moon landing symbolizes excitement about the long-term potential of the moon, not just space travel. 

    I love spaceflight for a lot of the same reasons I love AI. 

    It’s a global initiative heralding innovation and improvements that transform the world.  It’s the genesis of many exponential technologies. 

    Many astronauts, even from back in the Apollo days, talk about the incredible feeling they get after a few days in space.  As they gaze on the Earth from above, they lose their sense of borders and nationality.  The Saudi astronaut Sultan bin Salman Al-Saud, who flew on the Space Shuttle in 1985, commented on this, saying, “The first day or so we all pointed to our countries.  On the third or fourth day, we were pointing to our continents.  By the fifth day, we were aware of only one Earth.”

    It reminds me of Carl Sagan’s video on “The Pale Blue Dot.” 

    In 1977, five years after we left the moon, the Voyager 1 launched into space.  Just over a dozen years later, the Voyager 1 spacecraft had traveled farther than any spacecraft/probe/human-made anything had gone before.  It was approximately 6 billion kilometers away from Earth.  At that point, the Voyager 1 was “told” by Carl Sagan to turn around and take one last photo of the Earth … a pale blue dot. 

    The resulting photo is impressive precisely because it shows so little in so much.

    “Every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there–on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.” – Carl Sagan

    Earth is in the far right sunbeam – a little below halfway down the image.  This image (and the ability to send it back to Earth) was the culmination of years of effort, the advancement of technology, and the dreams of humankind.

    The resulting speech from Carl Sagan is still profound, moving, and worth a listen. 

     

    via Carl Sagan

    Here’s the transcript: 

    _____

    Look again at that dot.  That’s here.  That’s home.  That’s us.  On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives.  The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every “superstar,” every “supreme leader,” every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there–on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.

    The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena.  Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot.  Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of this pixel on the scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner, how frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds.

    Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the Universe, are challenged by this point of pale light.  Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark.  In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.

    The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life.  At least in the near future, there is nowhere else to which our species could migrate.  Visit, yes.  Settle, not yet.  Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand.

    It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience.  There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world.  To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we’ve ever known.

    ____ 

    Today, we have people living in space, posting videos from the ISS, and high-resolution images of space and galaxies near and far. 

    We take for granted the immense phase shift in technology.  You have more computing power in your pocket than we first used to go to the moon.

    As humans, we’re wired to think locally and linearly.  We evolved to live in small groups, fear outsiders, and stay in a general region until we die.  We’re not wired to think about the billions and billions of individuals on our planet, or the rate of technological growth – or the minuteness of that all in regard to the expanse of space.  

    However, today’s reality necessitates thinking about the world, our impact, and what’s now possible.

    We created better and faster ways to travel, we’ve created instantaneous communication networks across vast distances, and we’ve created megacities.  Our tribes have gotten much bigger – and with that, our ability to enact massive change has grown as well. 

    Space was the first bastion of today’s innovation, but today, we can look toward AI, medicine, epigenetics, and more. 

    It’s hard to comprehend the scale of the universe and the scale of our potential … but that’s what makes it worth exploring!

    Onwards!

  • The Doomsday Clock Is Ticking

    There are a number of destabilizing events that make me hope for peace, love, and prosperity.  There are increasingly dangerous active military conflicts, a contentious election in front of us, and a host of other issues related to the promise or peril associated with the clash between exponential technologies and human fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.

    With that said, random worry isn't a good strategy.  I like to measure subjective things as objectively as possible.  With that in mind, this post discusses something called the Doomsday Clock.

    The History of the Doomsday Clock

    The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 (following the successful testing of the first atomic bomb by the United States) to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons.  The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world.  The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.

    In 1953, after both the US and Soviet Union tested hydrogen bombs, the clock was set at two minutes to midnight, which is the closest it has ever been to a global catastrophe.  In recent years, the clock has taken into account not only nuclear weapons but also climate change and other emerging threats.

    The Significance of the Doomsday Clock in Modern Times

    Today, the Doomsday Clock remains an important symbol of humanity's vulnerability and the need for urgent action to prevent a global disaster.  The clock serves as a reminder that we must work together as a global community to address existential threats facing our planet.

    The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board determines where to set the clock each year based on international events and scientific advancements.  As such, it provides an objective measure of how close we are to destruction.

    Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one.  A list of the most significant existential threats to humanity includes:

    1. Nuclear War: The threat of atomic weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.

    2. Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.

    3. Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.

    4. Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not adequately regulated and controlled.

    5. Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.

    6. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.

    Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat.  So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive.  Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.

    The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947.  In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times.  The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds.  This was a small but significant shift.  But, this year, 2024, there was no shift. 

    Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception. 

    Doomsday-shifts

    via flowingdata

    The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity.  Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act. 

    And necessity is often the mother of invention.

    We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions).  Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges. 

    With collaboration among the brightest minds across the globe and private industry, we can solve even the world's most significant problems.

    If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity. 

    Onwards!

  • An Early Look At The Upcoming Election

    You know it's election season when Jon Stewart steps back in to host The Daily Show

    Unsurprisingly, the antagonism and hatred from both sides of the fence are still in full force – now with extra boosts from fake news and AI's influence. 

    Surprisingly (to me), the frontrunners are still Biden and Trump, despite them being 81 and 77, respectively … or despite Trump's several cases against him and Biden's horrible approval ratings … or … (it seems like we could keep finding reasons to be surprised).

    Truthfully, I am surprised neither party is running someone "better" in this election. 

    It feels like almost everyone I talk with is voting for the "lesser of two evils," even though they know it may not serve the greater good.

    Here is a chart showing third-year approval ratings of first-term Presidents since WWII.

    ApprovalRatings_Site

     

    I thought the last Presidential election was pretty interesting, but this one's shaping up to be even more so. If it were fiction, no one would believe it.

    The most popular issue on people's minds is the economy, but we also have controversial issues around trust in the government, immigration, abortion, foreign policy, and even the fate of Democracy in America itself. 

    For all the economic woes and complaints, the unemployment rate remains low, GDP growth is strong, and the S&P 500 recently hit record highs. Yet, Americans are still feeling it in their pockets as the price of goods has gone up. 

    It is a good reminder that the "facts" are often less important than how it feels. 

    It is still early, but what do you think will happen?

  • Going With The Flow: Functional Mapping

    There’s a concept in design and transportation called Desire Paths

    The desired path is the path that users take despite the intended path by the builder of a community or application. 

    Here’s a great example

    6tj18p093vb81

    Reddit via itstartswithani

    And, here’s a whole community forum focused on desire paths

    It’s often easier to take advantage of human nature … or just nature … than fight against it. 

    To that effect, I shot a short video on how this relates to your business and tech adoption.  I call it functional mapping.  Check it out

     

    Understanding the natural path for both technology and your clients makes it easier to understand and anticipate the capabilities, constraints, and milestones that define your path forward.   That means you actually have to understand the different types of users and what they expect to do.

    6a00e5502e47b28833026bded38d1b200c-600wi

    Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desired capabilities and automation.

    It isn’t really about building the technology; rather, it is about supporting the desire.

    You don’t have to get it right.  You just have to create momentum in the right direction.  This means that if you understand what is coming, you don’t have to build it … but you should figure out where you want to build something that will move things in the right direction.

    You’ve probably heard me talk about how Capabilities become Prototypes.  Then, Prototypes become Products.  And ultimately, Products become Platforms.

    This model is fractal.  That means it works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

    What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.

    SpaceX’s goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now … but once it’s achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.

    This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them. 

    It helps you anticipate which potential outcomes you want to accelerate.  Rather than simply figuring out the easiest next step … you have to figure out which path is the best next step to your desired outcome.

    The world is changing fast!  I hope you’re riding the wave instead of getting caught in the riptide!

  • Natural Technologies

    Nature can be pretty cool. 

    It turns out that a lot of what we think humans "invented" was so "natural" that nature created it first.

    For example, the British Planthopper has mechanical gears in its legs.

     

    Or the fact that the T4 Bacteriophage looks like a lunar lander and has 20 sides.

    Bacteriophage structure

    via biology4u

    Interestingly, some of man's greatest inventions are so innate that natural selection (or intelligent design) created them before we did. 

    Want another example?

    Hospital-acquired infections are diseases caught due to organisms people are exposed to at a hospital (or other healthcare-related areas). They account for over 99,000 deaths a year.

    Because of that, R&D worked extensively to find bacteria-killing surfaces …. It turns out Dragonflies have been doing it for centuries.

    Research companies (and dragonflies) have used nano-textured surfaces to create a "bed of nails" that destroys bacteria by puncturing the cell wall. 

    If you like stuff like this, Check out this link on order vs. chaos.

     There is always opportunity around you … You just have to know where to look.

  • New Beginnings or Evolutionary Growth

    Last week, I started getting “Happy Work Anniversary!” messages on LinkedIn … and I was a bit confused because people kept mentioning 24 years. 

    Twenty-four years … That can’t be right.  Can it?

    For context, here’s what I looked like around that time.

     IMG_5265

    My eldest son (who’s now married with a baby) was in middle school.  I was just out of the events I described in my TEDx talk

    However, depending on your definition, the 24th anniversary can be true or false.  Legally, the Capitalogix that exists today is distinct from the initial iteration.  Additionally, the company has expanded, its direction has shifted, and what was once a one-person operation has grown into a team of over 20 individuals focused on advancing and commercializing the field of Artificial Intelligence through something we call Amplified Intelligence (which is the ability to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually improve performance).

    Thinking back on the effort, the ideas, the people, the inventions, and even the purpose … in some respects, it feels like change is the only constant.  However, there are certain things that remain unchanged.  It is by observing these unaltered elements that you can truly understand the essence of the thing itself.

    It reminds me of the Ship of Theseus (also known as Theseus’ Paradox), which is a philosophical thought experiment that poses the question of whether an object that has had all of its parts replaced is still considered to be the same object.  It raises issues of identity, continuity, and change over time.  The concept can be applied to physical objects, living organisms, and even organizations or businesses.  It challenges our understanding of what it means for something to be fundamentally the same, and if an object can remain unchanged despite undergoing significant changes over time.

    The name “Capitalogix” originated in 2000, and a surprising amount of the original “North Star” purpose still exists.  Looking back at my early notes and plans, I’m surprised by how much holds up despite 20+ years of passing … but almost all of it has needed some course correction to adjust to changing tides.  

    Regardless, it’s staggering to think about how long I’ve worked in A.I. (since 1991, when it was hard to spell A.I.) and how far we’ve come. 

    If I had known how difficult it was going to be at the beginning, I would have probably never pursued it.  However, after experiencing the challenges and realizing how hard it is to make meaningful progress, I feel better that I did.  This is because I now know that we didn’t just create a competitive advantage – we learned how to create a sustainable competitive advantage.

    It’s easy for people to focus on a capability; it’s another to make it industrial-grade, robust, reliable, and able to work in challenging conditions. 

    They say that things that don’t kill you make you stronger.  It’s true for people, but it’s also true for technologies.  

    Life (and Business) constantly expose us to conditions and opportunities that lead to new beginnings and evolutionary growth.

    As I write this, I see it at Capitalogix as we pursue new possibilities and probabilities. 

    We didn’t come this far — just to come this far!

    What about you?

    Onwards!

  • Ranking The Most Popular AI Tools

    Last week, I shared some of the tools I've been using recently to help run my business and life. 

    As we all know, several AI tools are taking the world by storm – notably ChatGPT, but others as well. 

    It only took ChatGPT 5 days to reach a million users. But the whole AI tools market is growing at a surprising rate.

    VisualCapitalist put together a nice infographic on the most popular AI tools of 2023

    OC_AI-Tools_V1_NC

    via VisualCapitalist.

    I am familiar with some of the apps mentioned (such as Quillbot, Character.ai, or Hugging Face), but I don't use them. On the other hand, I had no prior knowledge of others (such as NovelAI, Janitor AI, and Civitai).  

    It's remarkable how much of the market ChatGPT currently controls on its own. In 2023, it is estimated that ChatGPT attracted 14.6 billion visitors, or more than 60% of all AI tool visits.

    With that said, it's a marathon, not a sprint. The "feel" of this AI market reminds me of the dot-com bubble times of the late 90s and early 2000s. Many products took the world by storm only to be overthrown by a more robust competitor. For example, consider how few early web browsers or search engines still exist. I suspect that will be true of many early leaders here, too.

    It isn't sexy, but it is a safe bet that Google's Bard and Microsoft's Copilot will continue to grow because of investment, acquisition, and distribution.

    Remember, new technologies lead to new products and new platforms … and the current crop of these AI tools are still only at the beginning of their cycles. I anticipate that many innovative frontstage products like ChatGPT will gain greater importance and profitability (albeit with less prominence) as they move backstage to become the backbone or plumbing infrastructure of various other products and services.

    The development of new technologies brings about the emergence of new products and platforms. 

    AI capabilities and adoption are growing exponentially. It will be interesting to see what else stays on the list three years from now. 

    Posts like these are helpful reminders to consider technology adoption and hype cycles.

    It's only the beginning … Onwards!

  • Predictions for 2024

    At the beginning of 2022, I shared VisualCapitalist's predictions for the year, and then at the end of the year, we checked to see how well they did

    Since they posted a 2024 version, I figured, why not do it again? 

    OC_Prediction-Consensus_03via VisualCapitalist.

    You can find forecasts anywhere … but since they're basically guesswork and I don't know what data they are using or excluding, I don't spend much time on them.

    That said, I found this infographic easy to look at and think about. So, it's as good a place to start as any. Also, VC draws from a database of 700 expert forecasts to make this chart. 

    Some are pretty easy to predict – like GenAI's shift to text-to-video. Or, an increase in lawsuits and regulations around AI. Others are questionable. In the past few months, we've seen TikTok investing heavily in the growth of its e-commerce business. Insiders have stated they believe they're trying to compete with Amazon. We'll see how that goes?

    On a positive note, it seems like most are predicting positive effects on the market & economy, including a decrease in inflation and interest rates, bonds on the way back, and record highs in the S&P 500.

    I'd love to hear your predictions. What do you think?

  • Some New AI Tools I’ve Been Hearing Good Things About

    At the core of Capitalogix's existence is a commitment to systemization and automation. 

    Consequently, I play with a lot of tools.  I think of this as research, discovery, and skill-building.  There is a place for that in my day or week.  However, few of those tools make it into my real work routine.

    Here is a list of some of the tools that I recommend.  I'm not saying I use them regularly … but in some cases, I should (it reminds me of some exercise equipment I have). 

    Screenshot 2024-01-19 at 4.56.40 PM

    Since the late 90's, I've been collecting tools to make my business more efficient and my life easier. 

    It's a little embarrassing, but my most popular YouTube video is an explainer video on Dragon NaturallySpeaking from 13 years ago.  It was (and still is) dictation software, but from a time before your phone gave you that capability. 

    Today, I have more tools than I know what to do with, but here are a few that keep coming up in conversations. 

    Daily.AI – AI Newsletters

    We've launched a new newsletter that is AI-curated by Daily.ai.  It matches the tone and style of my newsletters, gets good engagement, and (honestly) looks much better than what we put out.

    Our handwritten newsletters still do better on some metrics – but it's a nice addition and a promising technology. 

    For transparency, our handwritten newsletters get around 45% opens, and 10% click-throughs and our new AI newsletter is averaging around 38% opens but around 30% click-throughs.  Our normal newsletter isn't focused on links – which is why the click-through isn't as good. 

    That said, Daily.AI is a great tool that creates compelling two-way communication with your audience way easier and cheaper (time, money, and effort) than something similar done manually.

    This is an example of how people won't get replaced by AI … people will get replaced by people who use AI better. 

    Opus.pro – AI Video Repurposing 

    Opus.pro takes your long-form video content and cuts it into short-form content that you can post as teasers to other channels like YouTube Shorts, TikTok, or Instagram Reels. 

    For me, I tend to do more long-form content naturally.  I go on a podcast, speak at a conference, or to a mastermind group.  I end up with a 30-minute+ video that I don't have the time or interest in using.  This tool allows me to find the best parts quickly – and still allows editing to make it perfect. 

    For someone interested in really pursuing video, it's not worth it.  If you're interested in being present online, and not worried about making it your career, this is a great tool to streamline and systematize your process. 

    Type.AI 

    Type.AI is an interesting AI-first document editing tool.  At its core, Type is a faster, better, and easier way to write.

    A lot of people are using chat GPT for some editing.  Type is a good example of a next-generation tool that incorporates ChatGPT and other LLMs under the surface.  It is aware of what you are doing and lets you know what it can do. 

    Type jumpstarts the creative process and banishes the blank page.  Underneath its gorgeous UI are powerful features for generating ideas, querying your document, experimenting with different models, and easily formatting your work.

    The point is that with a tool like this, you don't have to be good at prompt engineering.  The tool does that for you – so you can focus on the writing.

    GetVoila.AI 

    Voilà is an all-in-one AI assistant in a browser extension.  That means it goes with you everywhere you go on the web and supercharges your browser by making it use ChatGPT to do what it does best without you having to do more than check what is available.
     
    Voilà simplifies the process of working with the content of websites and URLs, making it easy to convert them into various types of content, summarize them, or extract key information.  For example, if I am watching a YouTube video, I can right-click and choose "Summarize" – it creates a short video summary from the transcript.  Or, while writing this sentence, a simple right-click lets me choose: Improve, Fix grammar, Make longer, Make shorter, Summarize, Simplify, Rephrase, or Translate.
     
    This is more useful than I thought.  I use it well … then forget about it.  When I use it again, I often find that it got better.  I think you will find that with a lot of the tools these days.

     Don't worry about how well you use tools like this.  It is enough that you get better at using tools like these to accomplish what you really want.

    Explore a little.  Then, let me know what you found worth sharing.