Business

  • Remember Everything with Evernote

    I have been using a software tool you might find useful.  It solves a problem that you probably have, even if you don't think about it often.

    A Cure for Information Overload.

    It In the old days, you could photocopy something and put it in a file.  So finding it was relatively straight-forward. 

    Captureeverything_art_global Today, you are faced with a different type of challenge (and chances are your filing system is so "1990s").  Nowadays, you might be looking for a picture, audio snippet,  or video … a document (or more likely, just a part
    of one) … or a scrap you saved (like a quote, web-link, or blog post).

    Moreover, as you use the computer for more things (and a bigger percentage of the work you do), it gets harder to find a random "something" that you might be looking for.

    Part of the problem is that we are getting more efficient at creating "stuff", so there is more of it.  In addition, that stuff is a lot more varied than it used to be.

    Capture
    Everything to     Your Personal Digital Memory.

    Evernote makes it easy to store, organize, and find virtually anything.  Even better, it is also good at sharing it with others (award-winning good at it).

    Chances are, if you can see it or think of it, Evernote can help you remember it. Type a text note. Clip a web page. Snap a photo. Grab a screen-shot. It will be there when you need it.

    Finding it Fast, Wherever You Are.

    Everything you capture is automatically processed, indexed, and searchable. That means you can find things quickly and easily.

    You can search for items by keywords, titles, and tags. Evernote even makes the printed and handwritten text inside your images searchable, too (for example, the text on a photo of your white-board).

    There is an application program. However, you can also access your
    information through a Web interface (wherever you are, even if you are away from your computers). In addition, there are versions that work on
    various smart phones and Evernote
    provides "Capture" buttons that integrate with Microsoft Outlook and whatever browser you
    might use. What that means is that it's easy to use, and it's there
    when you need to use it.

    Here is a video showing you how it works.

    One Tool That Takes the Place of Many Others.

    I've tried dozens of programs that do similar things. In the old days, they were called "personal information managers".

    Many of these tools are specialized, so to handle it all you might use a to-do list (or "Getting Things Done" organizer), Internet bookmark manager, screen-capture utility, document management system, and free-form database.

    Evernote does all that, and virtually anything else you throw at it … yet, it doesn't cost you anything until you throw enough stuff into it to pass its generous monthly threshold.  For what it is worth, I clipped over 200 items before passing the limit.

    100510 Evernote LogoBottom-Line:  Use Evernote to save your ideas, things you see, and things you like. Then find them all on any computer or device you use. For free.  It's worth a try, you might like it.

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  • What Really Caused the Markets’ Melt-Down?

    Have you heard the commentators trying to explain Thursday's massive move down in the markets by blaming computer trading, a trader's error, or the news about what's happening in Greece?

    I don't believe that any of those explanations are the "cause" of the melt-down.

    100508 The Real Cause of the CrashThere's a difference between things that happen near the same time, and things that cause other things to happen. In statistics this is the difference between a coincident and a causal indicator.

    An Unlikely Explanation.

    Even if some trader accidentally tried to sell a billion shares of Procter & Gamble rather than 1 million shares … Do you really believe a broker's or exchange's risk-management protections would allow a billion share order (sure, an error … but not that error)? Or, do you really believe that a "fat-fingered" sale in America would cause Asia's market to go down 8%?

    Think about how many market participants there are around the world. Free market buying and selling is supposed to take care of mispriced assets. If
    something is too high, then people won't buy it. When something's too
    low, speculators swoop in to grab the bargain.

    A More Likely Scenario.

    The real story is that people are scared. And unlike the recent rally, the move down was met with selling rather than buying.

    There's an old trading adage that says markets climb a wall-of-worry one step at a time, then fall off the roof. In a normal up-trend, chances are you'll just hold what you own; because you have no real incentive to take action.  Consequently, as recent policies and actions pushed the markets higher, many market participants simply smiled and felt good about their good fortune.

    However, it doesn't work the same way when markets go down. In order to protect your profits, or avoid losses, it is important to take risk off the table. As more people start doing that, prices start to move faster, which feeds the fire … and finds even more sellers. As a result, there actually is an incentive to take massive action.

    But Don't You Have to Blame Someone?

    One of the interesting arguments that I've heard recently is that the crash was caused as high-frequency trading firms stopped trading in the market. In other words, the lack of liquidity caused these massive price moves.

    To me, it makes sense that high-frequency trading (or other algorithmic trading systems) stopped trading during times of market turmoil. One of the primary lessons from last year's bear market is to recognize that certain systems are designed only for normal market periods.

    As price and volatility move outside normal levels, we now tighten our risk and cash management parameters. Once we got past those limits, we stopped trading. Why? Because of the massive pain inflicted by not doing that the last time we saw those types of price moves and volatility.

    Likewise, I suspect it's the same for many other systems traders. Each of them went through a process of figuring out what works, and what doesn't work, during different market conditions. It makes sense that they learned to trade less when they don't have an edge.

    Consequently, the patterns of price movement and liquidity changed during the big move down.

    Let the Investigations Begin.

    Trying to figure-out what caused people to be afraid is silly. Fear
    cause people to be afraid. Human nature weighs the fight or flight
    instinct … and often chooses flight during dangerous situations.

    And if people are trying to sell, but no one is buying, then price
    will continue to fall until it's low enough that people feel they're
    getting a bargain again.

    On a side note, if a trader puts in a limit order to buy an asset if
    gets down to a certain price (let's say $0.01 for a share of Accenture)
    and there is no other buyer to fill a "market order", then crazy as it
    sounds, that is what happens.

    Will More Regulation Help Here?

    I see both sides.  On one hand, I am surprised that the Specialists weren't there to back-stop the market and take more sales at falling (yet, realistic) prices. Perhaps that merits some scrutiny?

    On the other hand, in a free market environment, do you really believe that it is in our best interests for the governments and the exchanges to figure-out how to prevent markets from going down?

    When the NYSE started to enforce trading curbs and slowdowns, sophisticated investors started off-loading some of their sales to other markets and exchanges around the world. The result is that prices continued to go down.

    Again, I don't believe that an error caused prices to go down, though it may have been in error in judgment caused by human nature for masses of the population to feel so scared.

    However, remember that fear and greed are the fuel that drives the engine of the markets.  I suspect that limiting fear will have unintended consequences.

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  • What Really Caused the Markets’ Melt-Down?

    Have you heard the commentators trying to explain Thursday's massive move down in the markets by blaming computer trading, a trader's error, or the news about what's happening in Greece?

    I don't believe that any of those explanations are the "cause" of the melt-down.

    100508 The Real Cause of the CrashThere's a difference between things that happen near the same time, and things that cause other things to happen. In statistics this is the difference between a coincident and a causal indicator.

    An Unlikely Explanation.

    Even if some trader accidentally tried to sell a billion shares of Procter & Gamble rather than 1 million shares … Do you really believe a broker's or exchange's risk-management protections would allow a billion share order (sure, an error … but not that error)? Or, do you really believe that a "fat-fingered" sale in America would cause Asia's market to go down 8%?

    Think about how many market participants there are around the world. Free market buying and selling is supposed to take care of mispriced assets. If
    something is too high, then people won't buy it. When something's too
    low, speculators swoop in to grab the bargain.

    A More Likely Scenario.

    The real story is that people are scared. And unlike the recent rally, the move down was met with selling rather than buying.

    There's an old trading adage that says markets climb a wall-of-worry one step at a time, then fall off the roof. In a normal up-trend, chances are you'll just hold what you own; because you have no real incentive to take action.  Consequently, as recent policies and actions pushed the markets higher, many market participants simply smiled and felt good about their good fortune.

    However, it doesn't work the same way when markets go down. In order to protect your profits, or avoid losses, it is important to take risk off the table. As more people start doing that, prices start to move faster, which feeds the fire … and finds even more sellers. As a result, there actually is an incentive to take massive action.

    But Don't You Have to Blame Someone?

    One of the interesting arguments that I've heard recently is that the crash was caused as high-frequency trading firms stopped trading in the market. In other words, the lack of liquidity caused these massive price moves.

    To me, it makes sense that high-frequency trading (or other algorithmic trading systems) stopped trading during times of market turmoil. One of the primary lessons from last year's bear market is to recognize that certain systems are designed only for normal market periods.

    As price and volatility move outside normal levels, we now tighten our risk and cash management parameters. Once we got past those limits, we stopped trading. Why? Because of the massive pain inflicted by not doing that the last time we saw those types of price moves and volatility.

    Likewise, I suspect it's the same for many other systems traders. Each of them went through a process of figuring out what works, and what doesn't work, during different market conditions. It makes sense that they learned to trade less when they don't have an edge.

    Consequently, the patterns of price movement and liquidity changed during the big move down.

    Let the Investigations Begin.

    Trying to figure-out what caused people to be afraid is silly. Fear
    cause people to be afraid. Human nature weighs the fight or flight
    instinct … and often chooses flight during dangerous situations.

    And if people are trying to sell, but no one is buying, then price
    will continue to fall until it's low enough that people feel they're
    getting a bargain again.

    On a side note, if a trader puts in a limit order to buy an asset if
    gets down to a certain price (let's say $0.01 for a share of Accenture)
    and there is no other buyer to fill a "market order", then crazy as it
    sounds, that is what happens.

    Will More Regulation Help Here?

    I see both sides.  On one hand, I am surprised that the Specialists weren't there to back-stop the market and take more sales at falling (yet, realistic) prices. Perhaps that merits some scrutiny?

    On the other hand, in a free market environment, do you really believe that it is in our best interests for the governments and the exchanges to figure-out how to prevent markets from going down?

    When the NYSE started to enforce trading curbs and slowdowns, sophisticated investors started off-loading some of their sales to other markets and exchanges around the world. The result is that prices continued to go down.

    Again, I don't believe that an error caused prices to go down, though it may have been in error in judgment caused by human nature for masses of the population to feel so scared.

    However, remember that fear and greed are the fuel that drives the engine of the markets.  I suspect that limiting fear will have unintended consequences.

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  • Did You Claim the Banks as Dependents On Your Taxes This Year?

    Tax-Time came and went last week.  Can you imagine all the calls
    the IRS had to take from Tea-Party participants and other citizens.

    100419 Banks as Dependents Cartoon

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  • Did You Claim the Banks as Dependents On Your Taxes This Year?

    Tax-Time came and went last week.  Can you imagine all the calls
    the IRS had to take from Tea-Party participants and other citizens.

    100419 Banks as Dependents Cartoon

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  • I Played With an iPad, and I Liked it

    100412 iPad Bookshelf The iPad is a revolutionary machine. I had a chance to spend time using one this weekend.

    Overall, the experience was impressive and compelling.

    The screen was beautiful. Looking at a website was
    better than expected. For example, reading the New
    York Times     online (using their iPad App) was, in many ways, a
    better experience than with the actual paper. Likewise, the e-book interface was stunning, easy
    to use, and also more compelling than paper.


    An Incredible "Consumption" Device.

    At first glance, the iPad seems like an incredible tool to
    consume media.

    • If you like to sit on your couch and read the paper or
      magazines, the iPad will clearly make that better.  Why?  Because you will have
      a much wider range of reading material available in one place, along
      with access to multimedia, streaming video and internet links.
    • If
      you play Sudoku or crosswords, again, the iPad will clearly
      make that better. You will have access to extra games, more varieties of
      games, and the ability to play against other people.
    • If you want to do research for something you're writing, it's the
      perfect platform to browse through websites, blogs, or to launch a news reader to scan RSS
      feeds      .
    • You can even use it to watch videos and browse through pictures.

    Here is a video review.

    So, will I buy one?  Not yet; and I do have some mixed feelings about this device.

    So What Was "Wrong" With It?

    To be sure, it is fast and powerful enough to do many of the things I do on a laptop.
    However, I don't think that it's a great "creation" device (at least for me). In other words, I don't believe that I would want to use it to do extensive
    writing, spreadsheet editing, or that type of "computer" work.

    Also, its big beautiful screen makes the device "too big" for me to imagine carrying around.

    One of the primary benefits of my iPhone is that I have it with me everywhere.  That means I use it at the grocery store, while I'm waiting for my car at the car-wash, and to look up something during a business meeting or lunch.  That wouldn't happen with the iPad. 

    Instead, I'd want one in my briefcase, another one in the living room, and another in the bedroom.

    Again, the iPad seems designed to be a "consumption" device for media.  As the price point comes down, I believe that consumers will buy several of them (much the way they have
    TVs in different rooms).

    100412 iPad iBroke Cartoon

    Even though it so impressive and compelling, I will probably wait for its next generation before buying. 

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  • I Played With an iPad, and I Liked it

    100412 iPad Bookshelf The iPad is a revolutionary machine. I had a chance to spend time using one this weekend.

    Overall, the experience was impressive and compelling.

    The screen was beautiful. Looking at a website was
    better than expected. For example, reading the New
    York Times     online (using their iPad App) was, in many ways, a
    better experience than with the actual paper. Likewise, the e-book interface was stunning, easy
    to use, and also more compelling than paper.


    An Incredible "Consumption" Device.

    At first glance, the iPad seems like an incredible tool to
    consume media.

    • If you like to sit on your couch and read the paper or
      magazines, the iPad will clearly make that better.  Why?  Because you will have
      a much wider range of reading material available in one place, along
      with access to multimedia, streaming video and internet links.
    • If
      you play Sudoku or crosswords, again, the iPad will clearly
      make that better. You will have access to extra games, more varieties of
      games, and the ability to play against other people.
    • If you want to do research for something you're writing, it's the
      perfect platform to browse through websites, blogs, or to launch a news reader to scan RSS
      feeds      .
    • You can even use it to watch videos and browse through pictures.

    Here is a video review.

    So, will I buy one?  Not yet; and I do have some mixed feelings about this device.

    So What Was "Wrong" With It?

    To be sure, it is fast and powerful enough to do many of the things I do on a laptop.
    However, I don't think that it's a great "creation" device (at least for me). In other words, I don't believe that I would want to use it to do extensive
    writing, spreadsheet editing, or that type of "computer" work.

    Also, its big beautiful screen makes the device "too big" for me to imagine carrying around.

    One of the primary benefits of my iPhone is that I have it with me everywhere.  That means I use it at the grocery store, while I'm waiting for my car at the car-wash, and to look up something during a business meeting or lunch.  That wouldn't happen with the iPad. 

    Instead, I'd want one in my briefcase, another one in the living room, and another in the bedroom.

    Again, the iPad seems designed to be a "consumption" device for media.  As the price point comes down, I believe that consumers will buy several of them (much the way they have
    TVs in different rooms).

    100412 iPad iBroke Cartoon

    Even though it so impressive and compelling, I will probably wait for its next generation before buying. 

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  • Reminiscences of a Retreat

    I just got back from a weekend retreat with a group of entrepreneurs.

    It consistently surprises me how valuable it is to take time to get away from your daily routines, in order to focus on the bigger picture.

    Part of the benefit is simply taking the time to do it.  Another part is listening to others, and hearing a fresh perspective.

    100409 Retreat Rock Band Activity

    Having fun helps too. 

    Guitar Hero

    I've watched my kids play Guitar Hero and Rock Band on their gaming systems; however, it was quite a different experience watching a bunch of middle-aged children play it at the retreat.

    I was particularly embarrassed that I knew so few of the songs.  And when I tried participating … I reminded myself more of my father, than of a rock-star. 

    Yet, for what it's worth, it turned out to be a great group activity to loosen-folks-up at the retreat.

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  • Reminiscences of a Retreat

    I just got back from a weekend retreat with a group of entrepreneurs.

    It consistently surprises me how valuable it is to take time to get away from your daily routines, in order to focus on the bigger picture.

    Part of the benefit is simply taking the time to do it.  Another part is listening to others, and hearing a fresh perspective.

    100409 Retreat Rock Band Activity

    Having fun helps too. 

    Guitar Hero

    I've watched my kids play Guitar Hero and Rock Band on their gaming systems; however, it was quite a different experience watching a bunch of middle-aged children play it at the retreat.

    I was particularly embarrassed that I knew so few of the songs.  And when I tried participating … I reminded myself more of my father, than of a rock-star. 

    Yet, for what it's worth, it turned out to be a great group activity to loosen-folks-up at the retreat.

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  • Will “Things” Use the Internet Better than People Do?

    The terms "Internet
    of Things    " and "System of Systems" are concepts that help to explain a great deal about what
    is happening, now, where the digital world meets the physical and
    intellectual.

    In the video below, from IBM, you get a glimpse of it …

    Imagine if your alarm clock talked to your calendar and knows you
    need to catch the
    ferry in 1-1/2 hours to get to work, so it wakes you up. But, a half hour before it wakes you, it turned on the heater in your bathroom; and other sensors started your morning coffee and de-iced
    the windshield in your car.

    Here are some excerpts from the film:

    “Over the past century, but accelerating over the past
    couple of decades, we have seen the emergence of a kind of global data
    field. The planet itself – natural systems, human systems, and physical
    objects – have always generated an enormous amount of data, but we
    didn’t used to be able to hear it, to see it, or to capture it. Now we can
    because all of this stuff is now instrumented. And it’s all
    interconnected, so now we can actually have access to it. So, in
    effect, the planet has grown a central nervous system.

    Look at that complex set of relationships among all of these complex
    systems    . If we can actually begin to see the patterns in the data, then
    we have a much better chance of getting our arms around this. That’s
    where societies become more efficient, that’s where more innovation is
    sparked.

    When we talk about a smarter planet, you can say that it has two
    dimensions. One is to be more efficient, less destructive, and to
    connect different aspects of life which do affect each other in more
    conscious, deliberate and intelligent ways. But the other is also
    to generate fundamentally new insights, new activity, and new forms of
    social relations. So you could look at the planet as an information,
    creation and transmission system    , and the universe was hearing its
    information but we weren’t. But increasingly now we can, early days,
    baby steps days, but we can actually begin to hear the planet talking to
    us.”

    This framework applies to many other things (for example, trading and markets).  Expect to hear more about this type of insight and automation.

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