Web/Tech

The Secret To Competing Against Tech Giants
The last time I drove in New York City traffic, I complained that "I didn’t understand why people came here" because it was too crowded.

That reminds me of one of Yogi Berra’s famous quotes. “Nobody goes there anymore because it’s too crowded.”

He said that about a famous restaurant where he used to work.

The same is true in business. Opportunity draws a crowd … but the best opportunities are often in areas of less competition.

For entrepreneurs, oversaturation can turn products into commodities, reducing profit potential. Conversely, many shy away when a challenge seems insurmountable, creating unexpected opportunities for those willing to take the risk.

As an entrepreneur, I’m drawn to projects others might dismiss as science fiction. These are the challenges that often lead to the most groundbreaking and rewarding outcomes.

Moonshot Projects

Moonshot projects offer a unique advantage. While they may seem daunting, their audacious nature often means less competition and greater potential for transformative impact and extraordinary profits.

A moonshot project is a highly ambitious, transformative endeavor that seeks to solve a significant problem or create a revolutionary innovation. These projects are characterized by:
- Audacious Goals: They aim for breakthroughs that seem nearly impossible to achieve.
- Disruptive Impact: They strive to create solutions that are vastly superior to existing offerings, often by introducing entirely new paradigms.
- High-Risk, High-Reward: These projects embrace the potential for failure in pursuit of groundbreaking results.
- Long-Term Focus: They prioritize long-term impact over short-term gains.
- Technological Advancements: They leverage cutting-edge or even nascent technologies.
- Paradigm Shifts: They challenge conventional wisdom and industry norms.
Moonshot projects are inherently challenging. They demand significant resources, interdisciplinary collaboration, and a willingness to venture into the unknown. This perceived difficulty often deters potential competitors, creating a unique opportunity for those willing to take the risk.

When successful, they push the boundaries of what is possible and redefine the landscape of their respective fields.

In part, that is why a 10X mindset is particularly well-suited for Moonshot projects. By aiming for a tenfold improvement over existing solutions, you’re essentially operating in a space with little to no competition or opposition. This allows you to redefine the rules of the game and establish a sustainable competitive advantage.

Our strategy of creating a unique, sustainable competitive advantage aligns perfectly with the Moonshot approach. By choosing to play a different game (with an asymmetric edge), we’re not just competing; we’re fundamentally changing the playing field.

I’m not interested in going head-to-head with tech giants on their turf. Instead, the goal is to carve out our own niche, focused on using our unique abilities to push boundaries and extend our edge. Being slightly ahead of the competition can be a powerful attractor. It often leads potential competitors to seek collaboration rather than confrontation. They might approach you with ideas, money, or opportunities, aspiring to share in your advanced position and capabilities. This dynamic can create unexpected partnerships and accelerate progress in ways that benefit everyone involved.

When interviewing potential team members, I often share a crucial insight: if you’re seeking a job where you work 9-to-5 solving problems so you can go home feeling satisfied, this might not be the right fit.

We tackle challenges of a different magnitude. Our projects rarely have quick solutions. Instead, we focus on making steady progress towards ambitious goals.

I sometimes joke that our motto should be: “We suck less.” Nevertheless, the underlying truth is more profound. It’s about understanding your ultimate objective and recognizing that each step moves you in the right direction, no matter how small.

This approach aligns with our belief in playing a different game. We don’t just compete; we redefine the rules of engagement, creating our own metrics for success and pushing boundaries in ways that traditional thinking often overlooks. Kind of like this quote:

“I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.” - Thomas Edison

It doesn’t make sense to challenge a bigger and better-funded competitor in an area where they have an asymmetric advantage. In other words, don’t compete with giants at their own game.

Choose to play a game you expect to win.

Playing a different game is a theme at Capitalogix. We believe that you control the game you’re playing, the rules, how you keep score, and even how you evaluate success. These things inform where to spend time, where to invest money, and even what looks like an opportunity to you.

Wouldn’t you rather compete in areas where you can create a unique, sustainable competitive advantage? Personally, I want to invest in the things that extend the edges that let us win.

Why? Because … Mediocrity Is Expensive!

What you lack in size or computer power, you can make up for in creativity, agility, and innovation.

We sought to create a niche in the investment industry, not through computing power, but through unique approaches to age-old problems. We use AI and data science to enhance decision-making.

We have an incredibly narrow and consistent focus. Within that area, we are willing to take on problems others avoid and pursue goals that others say are impossible.

Our niche limits risk and lets us fail faster … and learn faster. This allows us to take confident action while others are tentative.

Most big companies – and most of our competitors – are afraid to be wrong. They have to protect their infrastructure, cash cows, and short-term performance metrics. It makes sense (from their perspective) that playing it safe means they’re secure. – but that’s not how it works.

You can’t challenge the status quo when you are the status quo.

10x Improvement Is Often Easier To Achieve Than 10%

Astro Teller via TED

"In 1962 at Rice University, JFK told the country about a dream he had, a dream to put a person on the moon by the end of the decade.The eponymous moonshot. No one knew if it was possible to do, but he made sure a plan was put in place to do it if it was possible.That's how great dreams are. Great dreams aren't just visions, they're visions coupled to strategies for making them real." – Astro Teller

Incremental change is hard – it’s finding new ways to do the same thing, and you often end up competing in very red oceans – saturated markets where you’re competing on price.

Moonshots sound harder, but you create your own niche, and the constraints of a new idea force creativity and energy. If you’re going after a goal that no one has accomplished before, it’s impossible to be in a red ocean, and it’s easier to mobilize a team around something exciting and new than decreasing some arbitrary metric by 2%.

There are a couple of important lessons to keep in mind when pursuing the unknown.
- Forget what you know – self-reported “experts” are limited by their worldview. If you’re trying to get a different result, you won’t do it by playing by the same rules your predecessors followed. Heuristics are great for making life easier – but they’re very limiting when trying to create something new.
- Attack the hardest problems first – your biggest problems are your biggest opportunities. If you don’t deal with the big problems now, you’ll never get around to it, and you’ll waste time, energy, and potentially realize you have to pivot much too late.
- Be comfortable being uncomfortable – Most people find failure taboo, and they’re deathly afraid of it. Tony Robbins talks about our tendency to avoid pain more actively than we pursue pleasure, and it’s true in business. But failure is a part of business. The people I consider most successful got there through incredible pain tolerance and increasingly intense problems that they continued to conquer.
- Have a short memory for pain – Focus on the gain, not the pain. People often focus on not having enough money, not enough time, or simply not having enough. That scarcity mindset is dangerous and can lead to getting lost in pain and fear. Acknowledging the pain/fear and moving forward from a place of abundance and opportunity helps create opportunities.
As well, a clear identity is important. You have to understand what you’re pursuing and how you want to attack the problem. At Capitalogix, we’ve gotten very in tune with our goals.

We invent techniques that identify and adapt to what happens in markets. We apply the lessons learned from past experiences, data science breakthroughs, and hard work to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that are the downfall of most traders and decision-makers.

Small businesses don’t have a monopoly on these mindsets and these opportunities, but companies like Y Combinator, X(and no, I don't mean the company formerly known as Twitter), or HeroX are few and far between … Elon Musk is famous for moonshots like Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, Xai, etc. Google and Microsoft pursue moonshots as well.

Good news … the future is big enough for them and you.

Choose something that lights you up and leverages what you already know and who you already are.

So what’s your moonshot?
September 15, 2024
The Cities Of The Future
Studying historical changes in human population trends offers valuable insights into the factors that have propelled or hindered human development throughout time.

From ancient civilizations to modern metropolises, population dynamics have influenced everything from economic prosperity to social structures.

A Window Into Our Past Gives Us a Glimpse at Our Future.

By studying this critical aspect of human history, we can gain valuable insights into the past, present, and future of societies.

Population growth is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon with far-reaching implications. It offers a fascinating glimpse into the demographic trends that have shaped our world and continue to influence our trajectory.

Historically, human populations grew steadily but relatively slowly … until something changed that.

Scientists estimate that humans have existed for over 130,000 years. However, it took until 1804 for us to reach 1 Billion. We doubled that population by 1927 (123 years later) and then doubled it again only 47 years later (which was 1974).

Looking back, early population growth was driven by the agricultural revolution. Since 1804, the Industrial Revolution, health and safety advances, along with technology, have significantly improved quality of life, spurring the rapid population growth. Here is a quick overview of some of the key factors.

Shaping the Future

It’s hard to predict some things accurately. So, one goal in data science is to figure out what we can “know” in order to “guess” less.

Population growth is a prime example. One of the easiest ways to predict how many 60-year-olds there will be in 40 years is to look at how many 20-year-olds there are today. Obviously, the number won’t be exact, but it’s a pretty good head start.

This principle of using known data to make educated predictions applies to many aspects of future planning, including urban development and resource allocation. By leveraging current demographic information, we can better prepare for the challenges and opportunities that will likely impact the cities of tomorrow.
- Economic Implications: A growing population can expand the workforce, fueling economic growth. However, it can also strain resources, requiring increased investment in infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
- Social and Environmental Pressures: Demographic shifts, such as aging populations or youth bulges, can profoundly affect social structures, healthcare systems, and the environment.
Why It Matters

Population growth is more than just a numerical metric. It is a fundamental lens through which we can analyze:
- Historical Development: By understanding past population trends, we can better appreciate the factors that have shaped human civilizations.
- Future Planning: Governments, businesses, and organizations can use population data to make informed decisions about resource allocation, infrastructure development, and social policies.
Have World Population Growth Numbers Peaked?

World population growth rates peaked in the late 1960s and have declined sharply in the past four decades, but we’re still on a positive trend. We’re expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050, but a lot of that growth comes from developing countries – they also almost exclusively come from urban areas.
via Axios (Click for an Interactive Graph)

Urbanization: Megacities

In the 1800’s, about 10% of the population lived in urban areas. Since 2014, over 50% of the world’s population has lived in urban areas – today it’s approximately 55%. That number is growing.

Ironically, as we grow more digitally connected, our world is shrinking, and our populations are concentrating.

An interesting consequence of this rapid urbanization and population growth in developing countries has been the increased development of Megacities – defined as cities with populations greater than 10 million. Today, there are 33 megacities – more than triple the number in the 1990s.

This creates a set of interesting opportunities and challenges.

For example, how will these cities deal with infrastructure – sanitation, transportation, etc?

via visualcapitalist

Today, in most high-income countries, about 80% of the population lives in urban areas – contrasting the primarily rural populations of lower-income countries.

As a result, we see many of these megacities forming in developing countries. As a side note, we’re also seeing countries like China making substantial investments and alliances in these developing areas. This is likely done to profit from the expected growth and also to shift the future balance of power in their favor. Sometimes, it makes sense to focus on the marathon and not just the sprint.

It’s interesting how the world can become more decentralized – and more globalized – amidst a contraction of where people live.
September 15, 2024
(Re) Inventing The Wheel

When I think about the invention of the wheel, I think about cavemen (even though I know that cavemen did not invent the wheel).

Lots of significant inventions predated the wheel by thousands of years. For example, woven cloth, rope, baskets, boats, and even the flute were all invented before the wheel.

While simple, the wheel worked well (and still does). Consequently, “reinventing the wheel” is often used derogatorily to depict needless or inefficient efforts.

Nonetheless, there are good reasons to reinvent the wheel. Scientists recently developed an innovative shape-shifting wheel that can adapt its form depending on the terrain, enhancing mobility for vehicles like wheelchairs and robots. This new design addresses the limitations of traditional wheels, allowing for real-time adjustments to navigate uneven surfaces.

But how does that compare to sliced bread (which was also a significant invention)?

Even though the wheel is considered a symbol of innovation, it took over 300 years for it to be used for travel. Upon closer examination, this delay is understandable. In order for a wheel to be used for travel, it needs to have an axle and must be durable and strong enough to bear heavy loads, which requires advanced woodworking and engineering skills.

All the aforementioned products created before the wheel (except for the flute) were necessary for survival. That’s why they came first.

As new problems arose, so did new solutions.

Necessity is the mother of invention.

Unpacking that phrase is a good reminder that inventions (and innovation) are often solution-centric.

Too many entrepreneurs are attracted to an idea because it sounds cool. They get attracted to their ideas and neglect their ideal customers’ needs. You see it often with people slapping “AI” onto their product and pretending it’s more helpful.

If you want to be disruptive, cool isn’t enough … your invention has to be functional and fix a problem people have (even if they don’t know they have it.) The more central the complaint is to their daily lives, the better.

Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

Innovation means thinking about and anticipating wants and future needs.

Your customers may not even need something radically new. Your innovation may be a better application of existing technology or a reframing of best practices.

Uber didn’t reinvent a new car; they created a new way to get from where you want with existing infrastructure and less friction. Netflix didn’t reinvent the movie; they made it easier for you to watch one.

As an entrepreneur, the trick is to build for human nature (meaning, give people what they crave or eliminate the constraint they are trying to avoid) rather than the cool new tech you are excited about.

Human nature doesn’t change much … Meanwhile, the pace of innovation continues to accelerate.

The challenge is to focus on what people want rather than the distraction of possibility. That gets harder as more things become possible.

Onwards!

September 2, 2024
Examining Life Expectancy & Longevity
Life expectancy has been on a steady global rise for longer than I've been alive.

via worldometers

Meanwhile … the United States has fallen to 48th on the list of countries with the highest life expectancy.

Hong Kong tops the list with an average life expectancy of 85.63 overall – and 88.26 years for females.

For comparison, the U.S.'s average life expectancy is only 79.46.

Many factors potentially impact the findings, for example, the average height and weight of a population (with shorter & lighter people tending to live longer), diet, healthcare system, and work/life balance.

While some of this is out of your control (OK, a lot of it is) – there are definitely things you can do to increase your healthy lifespan. Meanwhile, some people like Bryan Johnson are doing everything they can to live forever.

Popular Mechanics put together a video series called How to Live Forever, or Die Trying, where they interview scientists and anti-aging gurus to give you insight into pursuing a future without death.

Unfortunately, recent science has shown that adults in their mid-40s to early 60s begin to experience significant changes in their alcohol, caffeine, and lipid metabolism, an increase in risk of cardiovascular disease, and a noticeable decrease in their skin and muscle health. When you hit your 60s, you also begin to see negative changes in carbohydrate metabolism, immune regulation, kidney function, and a further decline in the previously mentioned factors.

Here's the good news. Not only is science and technology getting better, but you're always in control. You can make lifestyle changes to increase your longevity, and you can also find supplements, treatments, and protocols that can reverse those factors of aging. Even simple measures like increasing your physical activity or avoiding alcohol before bed can make a massive difference.

They say a healthy person has thousands of dreams, but an unhealthy person only has one.

That is one of the reasons I spend so much time and energy thinking about staying healthy, fit, and vital.

Focusing on the positive is important … But to extend your healthy lifespan, you have to start by telling the truth and finding out what you and your body struggle with the most.

A doctor friend gave me some advice. He said it doesn't matter if you are on top of 9 out of 10 things … it's the 10th that kills you.

Despite our best efforts, Mother Nature remains undefeated.

With that said, here are some of my previous articles on longevity and health:
The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

I recently joined a fantastic mastermind group called DaVinci 50, run by Lisa and Richard Rossi. It brings together a remarkable collection of medical professionals and entrepreneurs focused on the latest research, treatments, and opportunities in health and longevity.

Another great tool I rely on is Advanced Body Scan. Early detection is crucial, but so is tracking the history of your scans to monitor changes over time. In my opinion, the most valuable scan is always the next one.

Additionally, I use a growing list of trackers and biometric devices to measure my heart rate, along with apps and tools for mindfulness, breathwork, and journaling. Together, these practices recognize that mind, body, and spirit combine to define how you live your life.

To end this post, I'll use a farewell phrase I heard often while growing up … it translates roughly to "go in health, come in health, and be healthy." It's a beautiful way to wish someone well on their journey, emphasizing the importance of health and well-being.

I hope you found something interesting. Let me know what things and practices work best for you.
September 1, 2024
Pattern Recognition In Trading

The Market has been volatile recently, with unusually large gains and losses as we enter the homestretch of the election season. Even though many markets are still near their highs, I'm sensing an increase in anxiety and fear in many of my peers.

While some believe that markets are random, others make money using rule-based trading systems that rely on specific patterns to identify favorable trading conditions.

Traders, at every level, search for a tradable edge. Some find it in fundamental analysis, others in technical analysis or chart-based patterns, while still others rely on an algorithmic or execution-based edge.

So, is there some magic unifying equation that defines the Market? Personally, I doubt it. Even though nothing always works, "something" always works in the markets. The challenge is to identify what that is and to ignore the rest.

Though many patterns work, from time to time, when a particular pattern works may seem random, and here is why.

Understanding the Markets.

There is no such thing as a "Market" … It is a collection of separate traders (each trading based on what they focus on, what they make it mean, and ultimately what they decide to do).

As a result, one of the reasons that markets experience volatility is that different groups buy or sell for different reasons at different times.

Consequently, even if one group trades using a consistent set of rules, a strategy that effectively combats it only works until that group stops trading those rules.

It works the other way too. If a large trader imposes their will, it changes the playing field for smaller traders.

Elephants Leave Tracks.

Smart traders follow the big money.

Large traders like governments, sovereign wealth funds, or mutual funds can affect markets while they buy or sell.

However, when they're done, some other group's strategy becomes the dominant force.

Experienced traders recognize that it is important to understand "who is in control" … but not necessarily why they are trading.

That means you don't have to figure out every bit of information or rationale behind a strategy to make money. For example, suppose you were about to walk into a movie theater but were suddenly confronted with hundreds of people running in the other direction screaming. In that case, you don't have to understand precisely why it's happening to respond intelligently.

On a superficial level, that's the basis of trend following. It is also an example of pattern recognition.

Most hedge funds now use some form of pattern recognition in their trading systems.

Much of the analysis done to get a trading edge is simply a way to identify "who is in control" and what they are doing … rather than why they are trading.

Here, we will examine why some traders rely on specific patterns to identify favorable trading conditions.

Some Patterns Are Logical.

Let's look at a common trading pattern called a "Triangle". You can think of the Triangle as a well-contested battle between the bulls and the bears. It is almost like an arm-wrestling match. Inside the pattern, neither side gives up much ground. However, when one side loses conviction, the market surges in the direction the winners push.

Here is a picture of a Triangle and the pattern's likely price projection.

Triangles are an example of a logical pattern. It is easy to see and easy to understand. In addition, it is easy for a trader to use a setup like this to define the likely risk and reward of a trade they are considering.

Why Do Patterns Form in Markets Repeatedly? The Answer is Human Nature.

Markets are not always logical. Some would argue that Markets are rarely logical. If they were, intelligent people would get rich by following their instincts … but that isn't how it works.

On some level, markets represent their participants' collective thoughts and emotions. So, even though conditions change, the collective response to fear and greed remains reasonably similar.

As a result, many patterns show up in market price data.

In General, Here's What Is Happening.

A move up of a certain degree will be met with some people who fear the move won't go higher … so they decide to sell. Meanwhile, others will believe the move will trigger a whole different group of people to recognize an opportunity … so they decide to buy.

The same thing happens with a big move down. At first, it triggers fear and selling. But at some point, to a particular group of traders, the move down will look like a discounted buying opportunity.

At its core, price is the primary indicator of investors' willingness to buy or sell. Things like velocity or slope are secondary, and show the intensity of their motivation.

So, many of the patterns that you read in books or magazines (with names like "head and shoulders", or "cup and handle", or "double bottoms") are all just ways of explaining the natural response to certain conditions.

There is science involved in recognizing a specific pattern … and art in selecting which pattern to rely on today.

But You Don't Have to Predict Anyone's Action – All It Takes Is An Intelligent Response.

It's the law of large numbers. An insurance company doesn't have to accurately predict when any individual will die; their actuaries have to figure out a reasonable estimate of how many people like that in their risk pool will die during the relevant period … and price the coverage accordingly. Likewise, in the Market, patterns don't predict what an individual will do; they indicate what the majority will likely do.

So now that you understand patterns, the rest is easy … right?

Of course, it's not as easy as it sounds because these patterns are being played out across every Market and happen in different time frames as well. That means some people respond to the Market using a much longer time horizon than others. A pattern for them may be noise at a different level of focus.

It may be comforting to see familiar patterns occur whether you're looking at a minute-by-minute chart of the S&P or a weekly chart of gold … but comfort doesn't make you money. Instead, ask whether what you are looking at is a coincidence or causal. Said another way, does it simply explain what happened, or is it a valid prediction of what will happen?

Since many patterns are playing out across many markets at any given time, a human can't identify, validate, and trade all of them in real-time.

This is where computers and artificial intelligence truly shine. For example, we've developed a pattern mining technology that doesn't rely on traditional technical analysis patterns. Instead, it searches for patterns across various markets and time frames, uncovering edges that humans would never be able to detect on their own.

But even that simply adds more ways to win.

The only thing I can confidently predict is that volatility and noise will increase due to how markets work and the arms race for enhanced technical capabilities and information asymmetry. As volatility and noise continue to rise, what separates smart money from dumb money will likely be the ability to focus on what matters when it matters.

It is hard to do – and even harder to do consistently. But some things are inevitable. While technology may not immediately replace all human traders, it's becoming increasingly evident that those who leverage computers and advanced technology will outperform and eventually replace traders who rely solely on their human capabilities.

We live in interesting times.

August 25, 2024
The Most Hyped Technologies of the 00s
The Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle research provides the raw material for some of my favorite posts every year.

It is a graphical and conceptual presentation used to represent the maturity, adoption, and social application of popular technologies.

Here is a link to a Gartner research note on understanding Hype Cycles.

I’ve found that they are an excellent source of well-researched tech and business analysis. As another example, here is a video of their Top Ten Tech Trends for 2024.

via YouTube

Humans are famously bad at predicting the future of technologies. We tend to overestimate technology’s abilities in the near term and massively underestimate what it can do in the long term.

The shape of that curve has come to be known as the Gartner Hype Cycle, and the five stages of that curve are important for any entrepreneur or investor to understand.

via Gartner

In general, as technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities and disappointed when those expectations aren’t met.

At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where we are in the product’s timeline and how long it will likely take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily lives.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies. It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.

Here are the five regions of Gartner’s Hype Cycle framework:
1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts).
Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like “How will these technologies impact my business?” and “Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?”

If you are curious, here is Perplexity’s explanation of Gartner’s Hype Cycle and related research.

Another methodology uses frequency analysis to identify the “most hyped” concepts and technologies.

VisualCapitalist recently put together an infographic highlighting the most hyped technologies of each year. They call it the “Peak of Inflated Expectations”.

(Click To See Full Infographic) via VisualCapitalist

Here’s a Summary of the most hyped technologies, by year, since 2000.
- 2000 – Wireless Web, ASPs, Bluetooth
- 2001 – Web Services, Enterprise IM, m-Commerce
- 2002 – Biometrics, Grid Computing
- 2003 – Process Portals
- 2004 – Micro Portals, Virtual Content Repositories
- 2005 – P2P VOIP, Biometric ID Documents, BPM Suites
- 2006 – Mashup, Web 2.0
- 2007 – Legal P2P, Digital Video Broadcasting
- 2008 – Green IT
- 2009 – Cloud Computing, e-Book Readers, Social Software Suites
- 2010 – 4G Standard, Activity Streams
- 2011 – Internet TV, NFC Payment, Augmented Reality
- 2012 – BYOD, 3D Printing, Complex Event Processing
- 2013 – Big Data, Gamification, Wearable User Interfaces
- 2014 – IoT, Natural-Language Question Answering, Cryptocurrencies
- 2015 – Speech-To-Speech Translation, Advanced Analytics, Autonomous Vehicles
- 2016 – Blockchain, Cognitive Expert Advisors, Machine Learning
- 2017 – Virtual Assistants, Connected Home, Deep Learning
- 2018 – Biochips, Digital Twin, Deep Neural Networks
- 2019* – 5G, AI PaaS, Graph Analytics
  *Missing from the infographic, but updated by Gartner
As we take our smartphones for granted, it’s hard to imagine Bluetooth, wireless web, or e-book readers as emerging technologies at this point – but at one point in time, the lightbulb was an emerging technology.

It’s also interesting to look at which technologies peaked in a hype cycle … and which now popular technologies no longer appear on this list. For example, despite Virtual Reality being around since the 80s, I still expected to see it on this list.

Cryptocurrencies, “smart homes”, and several older examples are in a recession – but that doesn’t mean they won’t have resurgences.

As a reminder, the hype cycle and the innovation adoption cycle are often on very different time scales. It’s very possible that technologies from the early 2000s may still have their heyday.

What are you surprised wasn’t on the list? And, what do you think is about to get added?

We live in interesting and exciting times!
August 18, 2024
Cultivating An Innovator’s Mindset
To some, new technology is a good thing. To others, less is more.

Most people simply “tolerate” technology transitions, some people drive them, and others crave them and use them as a catalyst for growth or strategic advantage.

The description begins with resistance and progresses towards compulsion. Reversing this sequence allows us to illustrate the innovation adoption process.

Here is a visualization of the innovation adoption model and market share.

In the image above, the blue line represents consumer adoption (taken from Geoffrey Moore’s “Crossing the Chasm,” while the yellow line represents market share.

As you can see, only 2.5% of the population drive innovation (or adopt it early enough to help drive the Alpha & Beta versions of emerging technologies). 13.5% make up the Early adopters, who help get it ready for the mainstream. Then, the early and late majorities are the groups that ultimately consume (or use) the mature product. Meanwhile, Laggards are often forced kicking and screaming into “new” technologies as the early adopters are well on their way to subsequent iterations.

Here is a link to Perplexity’s description of Crossing the Chasm’s innovation-adoption model and other key concepts from the book.

Even if you are not an innovator, here are a few Innovator Mindsets that I find useful.
1. You Believe There’s A Better Way
  - Wherever you are, you know that there is a best next step, and you are eager to find it and take it.
  - You recognize that the opportunity for more (or better) often lies just beyond the constraints or problems of the current way.
  - The bigger future fuels your efforts. When initial excitement fades, understanding what the bigger future can bring helps you power through.
2. You Are Comfortable Being Uncomfortable
  - You understand that Pioneers sometimes take arrows in the back.
  - When creating a new reality, you expect some resistance as a result of the law of averages. Escaping the status quo takes a lot of momentum, but it’s worth it.
  - You recognize when victory is near. In a quirk of human nature, too many people quit just before they would have won. Don’t make that mistake.
3. You Know Where You’re Going, Even If You Are Not Sure How You’re Going To Get There
  - Your goal should be your North Star. A clear direction is essential to ensure that activity leads to progress.
  - Measure progress and momentum rather than the distance from your goal.
  - It is easier to course-correct while in motion.
  - If you’re too committed to a path that isn’t leading in the right direction, you might find what Blockbuster, RadioShack, and Kodak found.
4. You Are Married To Questions (Not Necessarily Answers)
  - Everything works until it doesn’t; and nothing works forever.
  - It’s easy to find an answer (and think it’s correct), but there’s always a best next step or a better way.
  - Figure out what you want and how to get it. This is much more empowering than focusing on what you don’t want … or why you can’t get it.
  - Ask questions that focus on opportunities or possibilities rather than challenges … or what you want to avoid.
  - Energy flows where focus goes.
  - Commit to finding a way!
I plan on sharing more Innovator Mindsets. Let me know what you think.
August 18, 2024
Capturing Gold

The Olympics have officially concluded. For many, it was the ultimate display of the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. For others, it's a way to boast about their country's medal count. If you're curious, here are the final medal standings.

One of the most captivating moments occurred in the men's 100-meter sprint. It made me reflect on how years of preparation can come down to a few thousandths of a second determining the difference between Gold, Silver, and Bronze — or virtual irrelevance.

Last week, Noah Lyles broke a 20-year U.S. drought in the men's 100m final, winning gold with a 9.784 time.

Lyles came into the race ranked No. 1 in the world, but he had to run his fastest time ever to win the Olympic gold medal, and he did so by the slimmest of margins — 0.005 seconds.

In that race, Lyles achieved an average speed of 25.7 mph, and his max speed hit 27.84 mph.

Surprisingly, Lyles didn't lead the race until the final and most important moment. Many thought that Jamaica's Kishane Thompson had the gold … but advanced technology showed that Lyles surged ahead in the final stretch, edging Thompson out by a split second to claim victory. Here is the photo finish.

via ESPN

It took over half a minute (much longer than the race itself) for the judges to announce the winner – it was that close.

As a tech nerd, what I found most interesting about the win was the camera used to certify the win.

Omega, which has been the official Olympics timekeeper for decades, released a new camera that shoots 40,000 frames per second, aimed directly at the finish line.

It reminded me of the facial recognition technology NFL teams like the Dallas Cowboys use to track – theoretically – every person who steps into a stadium. The cameras are so good that when a crime is committed, they can completely track the perpetrator as they travel throughout the stadium. The Cowboys' security office boasts that their camera system surpasses even the ones used by Las Vegas casinos to catch cheaters at the gaming tables. However, it seems like Omega has taken things to a whole new level at the Olympics with its advanced camera technology this year.

Many think the 200m race is Lyles' specialty. His personal best of 19.31 seconds in the 200m is the American record, making him the third fastest in the event.

Unfortunately, Lyles couldn't grasp gold in the 200. He got Bronze instead. However, after the race, he revealed that he ran the race with COVID … which might explain his drop in performance. Still, it stands as a testament of will to me.

As a side note, while the International Olympic Committee does not pay athletes for winning at the Olympics, many countries do!

via Voronai

While the U.S. isn't near the top of the list – American athletes who get gold bring home $37,500. A silver nets you $22,500, and a bronze nets you $15,000.

Of course, these medals can also lead to other compensation and endorsements – but the payout table was still interesting.

The achievements of athletes like Noah Lyles create national pride and open doors to numerous opportunities and rewards.

Meanwhile, the integration of advanced technology in the Olympics highlights the importance of innovation in sports. As we celebrate these victories, we also look forward to the future advancements that will continue to shape the world of athletics and the world itself.

August 11, 2024
The Most Common Pin Codes
There are 10,000 possible combinations in a 4-digit numeric PIN code. Out of those, which is the least commonly used? Which pin code is the least predictable, and which is the most predictable?

Nick Berry sought answers from the data from released/exposed password tables and security breaches.

DataGenetics via InformationIsBeautiful

You guessed it … the most common PIN code is 1234. Unfortunately, that choice accounts for about 11% of all pin codes based on the 3.4 million data points evaluated. After that, 1111 represents 6% of the population, 0000 2% of the population, followed by several other less popular answers. The top 10 include 1212, 7777, 1004, 2000, 4444, 2222, and 6969.

I share these examples mostly to say that if you use one of those codes … change it.

You should also change your pin code if you use your birth date or anniversary year as your pin.

I won't share the least popular PIN codes, as I assume they'll also get added to a hacker's potential key list.

Practicality aside, Nick Berry's article is fascinating if data and analytics interest you.

As a reminder, the greatest weakness in your data, your business's data, and the data of your loved ones … is you.
As for passwords … I recommend not knowing them. You can't disclose what you don't know. Consequently, I recommend a password manager like LastPass, Dashlane, or 1Password.

Some other basic tips include:

Keep all of your software up to date (to avoid extra vulnerabilities).

Don't use public wifi if you can help it (and use a VPN if you can't).

Have a firewall on your computer and a backup of all your important data.

Never share your personal information on an e-mail or a call that you did not initiate – if they legitimately need your information, you can call them.

Don't trust strangers on the internet (no, a Nigerian Prince does not want to send you money).

And, turn on 2-factor authentication … even if it's annoying.

How many cybersecurity measures you take comes down to two simple questions … First, how much pain and hassle are you willing to deal with to protect your data? And, second, how much pain is a hacker willing to go through to get to your data?

It doesn't make sense to put all your data in a lockbox computer that never connects to a network … nevertheless, it might be worth it to go to that extreme for pieces of your data.

Think about what the data is worth to you, or someone else, and protect it accordingly.
August 11, 2024
The 2.9 Trillion Dollar Drop

Last Friday was the stock market’s worst day since COVID.

The media says weak job reports and recessionary fears fueled it. Geopolitics might have played a part, too.

Over 2.9 Trillion Dollars got wiped out.

To visualize what happened, here is a market heatmap of the S&P 500 index stocks categorized by sectors and industries. Size represents market cap. There was very little green in a sea of red.

via FinViz

Last year, I asked if we would see a recession in 2024? Here is an excerpt from that post:

I want to remind people that the U.S. is resilient, and it seems like public sentiment is moving in a positive direction.

That said, 84% of CEOs and 69% of consumers think we're headed toward a recession. Meanwhile, the Fed is positive we won't … and banks are almost positive we won't.

It seems like they know something we don't … or maybe vice versa.

To lend some credence to the bullish sentiment, consumer spending is still high despite inflation and interest rates. In addition, Retailers are still posting solid earnings.

Unfortunately, we're increasingly seeing consumers resort to borrowing (including short-term lending options) to pay for goods. Household debt has hit a record high of $17 trillion in March.

— Are We Going To See A Recession In 2024?, October 2023

Yes, last week was potentially alarming. Even the ordinarily resilient tech giants took a hit.

With the unemployment rate reaching 4.3% in July, the three-month moving average is at least 0.5 percentage points above the minimum of the previous 12 months’ averages. This triggers the Sahm rule, which supposedly signals a recession. According to the rule, reaching the 0.5% threshold indicates a recession. When the jobless rate rises quickly, it suggests the economy is slumping.

But, even the inventor of the rule, Claudia Sahm, says the doomsday narrative may be overblown.

I’m not here to tell you that everything is sunshine and roses, but I am here to remind you that no indicator exists in a vacuum. While the negative performance is real, household income is still growing, and consumer spending and business investment remain resilient.

Not to mention that with graduation, there’s a massive increase in the workforce, which also impacts the numbers.

Recessions can build slowly – but come quickly – but as they build, there is time to react … and even better – there is time to not ‘react’ but ‘respond’.

AI will likely impact the workforce, business, and eventually … the economy.

I’ve learned that the market often feels random because you can’t predict events like global pandemics, threats, assassinations, or cybersecurity outages.

Over time, I’ve focussed less on guessing what will happen and more on responding faster and better to what happens.

With that said, I do have an opinion here. It’s an election year, and I suspect the government will push every button and pull every lever to boost the market leading into November. Even though markets and the economy are not the same thing, many voters believe they are. So, I would say this correction is perfectly timed … and I anticipate a steady ramp-up so that people feel as good as possible about the economy when they vote.

What do you think is going to happen?

August 4, 2024