Web/Tech

  • How Confident Are You About Who Will Win the Presidential Election?

    With two days to go, Obama's odds of winning re-election have reached 85%, their highest level, according to the Five Thirty Eight forecast.

     

    121104 Barack Obama Favored to Win 

    Prediction market, Intrade, also has the President maintaining a solid lead, with a 65% chance of winning.

     
    121104 Barack Obama Favored to Win by Intrade Markets  
    The difference between the national polls and these results, is that the
    national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Nate Silver's Five
    Thirty Eight forecast focuses on state-by-state polls aimed at
    determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the
    Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls.

    Nonetheless, it is a close race, and what you see depends on where you look … Some polls still seem favorable for Romney (especially on Fox).

    But, as election day approaches, and we continue to get bombarded by both sides, remember to take it with a grain of sand and a smile while you remember they are just doing their job.

    Mark Twain said it many years ago: "Don't ever let the facts spoil a good story."

     

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  • In God We Trust — The Media, Not So Much Anymore …

    new survey from Gallup suggests that sixty percent of Americans have little trust in the mass media to deliver the news "fully, accurately and fairly." This marks a record amount of distrut since Gallup began tracking the trend.

    The question asked was: "In general, how much trust and confidence do you have in the mass media—such as newspapers, TV, and radio—when it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately and fairly—a great deal, a fair amount, not very much, or none at all?"

    Sixty percent answered either "not very much" or "not at all," with the remaining 40 percent opting for either "a great deal" or at least "a fair amount."

    Since you probably don't believe this information, here's the chart straight from Gallup; so you can interpret it yourself.

     

    121008 Gallup Trust in Media

    According to the pollsters, this year's drop in media trust is being fueled largely by self-identified Republicans and independents. Twenty-six percent of Republicans said they trusted the media either greatly or a fair amount, similar to the level of trust the GOP reported back in 2008, another election year.

    Here is the Gallup chart:

     

    121008 Gallup Trust in Media by Party

     

    Independents, meanwhile, are much more negative about the media than
    they were in 2008, something that Gallup says suggests "the group that
    is most closely divided between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney  is quite dissatisfied with its ability to get fair and accurate news coverage of this election."

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  • How Many Times Have You Heard “Gangnam Style”?

    There is no escaping "Gangnam Style," the meteoric dance craze performed by South Korean rapper Psy.

     

     

     

    OK, it has a catchy tune and fun dance moves … but how do you explain the
    incredible global response to "Gangnam Style," a song that's almost
    entirely in Korean?

     

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  • Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

    Ever wonder how the stock market works?

     

    120929 How Does the Stock Market Work

    Real Life Adventures by Gary Wise &Lance Aldrich

     

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

     

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Here Are Some Interesting Links to Read This Weekend

    The iPhone 5 is cutting edge … and Siri is getting smarter.  Too bad it can't answer the tough questions.  Here's a cartoon that imagines what would happen if asked "Can the economy be fixed in the current political climate?"

     

    120922 iPhone 5 Ask Siri About the Economy

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

     

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • The Spoof of the iPhone 5 Video is Hilarious

    I was watching some of our team chat about the new iPhone 5.  They shared the link for the video and said things like "Wow, dude … I want one so bad!"

    Here is a link to Apple's official iPhone 5 promotional video.

     

    120920 iPhone 5 Video
     

    There is also a spoof of the video.  It is very funny … worth watching
    for a laugh and some perspective on how "big" the Apple brand promise
    has become.

     

     

     

    In many ways, the spoof made me want the phone even more.

    As a side-note, wouldn't it be great to design a product that was spoof-worthy?

     

    As
    you think about what a spoof of your product or service would be,
    perhaps the bit of "truth" in the humor points at the real competitive
    advantage … or at least towards the roadmap that leads towards
    creating one?

     

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  • How Hard Was It to Get an iPhone 5 Upgrade?

    Perhaps you heard, Apple sold a few new iPhones last week.

    According to TechCrunch, iPhone 5 Pre-Orders sold-out 20X faster than the 4 and 4S did.

    If a picture is worth a thousand words, this should tell quite a story.

    The first picture shows the first hurdle … just strong demand … right?

     

     IMG_0207

     

    At a little after 2am CST, the iPhone 5 seemed close.  The upgrade process starts.

     

     IMG_0208

     


    Clicking the button, however, resulted in no joy. The site was unavailable.

     


    IMG_0209

     


    OK, lots of people must be hitting the site all at once.  Let's try again … and again …

    Progress; at least this is a new page. They must have fixed things?

     


    IMG_0210

     


    It's after 3:30am and the next picture shows why pillows seem more likely than gadget love.

     


    IMG_0211

     


    Give AT&T credit for good planning. How many ways can you anticipate failing?

     


    IMG_0212

     


    I sleepily imagine my propeller beanie being taken away for failing to score … my early adopter status is wavering as much as my sleep deprived body.

     

     IMG_0213

     


    Oh, Apple's site probably sucks less than this …

     


    IMG_0214

     


    Alas, there's still a chance to wait in line this Friday.

    Are you planning on getting the new iPhone?

     

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  • Here Are Some Interesting Links to Read This Weekend

     

    120915 Bruce Lee

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

     

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

    If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them.

  • A Great Way to Suck Less at Managing Teams – a Look at the 15Five Process

     

    Energy flows where
    focus goes … and questions are a great way to direct focus.

     

    Planning is one
    thing, “real life” is another.  So, how do
    you give stakeholders a clear picture of what’s happening, the relevant business
    terrain, and the best path for them to navigate given their daily challenges
    and objectives?


    120914 15five-logo15Five is a
    management tool that can help with those issues.  It consists of a few simple questions that
    each of your direct reports has an opportunity to fill out each week.

    The name, “15Five”, comes
    from the concept that it should take someone 15 minutes to think about and fill
    out their answers to these questions; while it should take you about five
    minutes (per person) to review those answers and give feedback. These responses
    can be public or private, as you see fit.

    The good news is that
    15Five is simple and usable.  You’ve
    probably heard the phrase “Garbage in, garbage out.”  More importantly, though, “Nothing in,
    nothing out.”  If people don’t use a
    tool, it is tough to benefit from it, regardless of how “good” it is.

      
    120914 Know the Pulse of Your Company

    So, How Did Our Team Respond to This New
    Tool?

     

    Predictably, after a
    week or two of using it, several members of the team approached me to ask how
    long they'd have to do this. However, just a few weeks later, some of those
    same people shared how much they're enjoying the process.

    Ultimately, they
    recognize that it's helping them raise their focus from the immediate to a
    chunk higher. They also recognize that it's a chance to have a one-on-one
    conversation with their boss about what they want to talk about … without
    taking time away from their work or interrupting their focus time.

    The 15Five process
    also gives respondents a chance to think about and prepare worthy answers
    (rather than to feel tongue-tied or regretful that they failed to mention
    something when they had the chance).  The
    result is something they are likely to be proud of – and something to build
    upon.

    For the manager, it
    is a chance to give individual attention to each respondent. It also provides
    an easy way to comment (or ask for additional information) about specific
    ideas. Just click a button and write your note. The other party gets an email
    that they can respond to directly, or they can see it in the conversation
    thread for that week’s report.

      
    120914 How It Works

    Where Is Value Added?

     

    15Five helps people
    think about the business (rather than simply working through their daily grind).
    It helps them recognize why what they are doing matters, and how what they are
    doing helps move things in the right direction. 
    As a result, using the tool builds confidence and momentum. Ultimately,
    15Five helps people steer themselves to take appropriate actions and make
    better decisions.

    As a trader, I
    understand that price is the primary indicator of the market. However, to get a
    better understanding, many traders use secondary indicators (like sentiment,
    momentum, rate of change, or even the response to good or bad news).  Beyond a direct communication tool, these are
    the types of insights that the 15Five feedback mechanism makes possible.

    For example, don't
    just look at one week's set of responses in a vacuum. Instead, notice the tone
    and the amount of care that someone uses when they send you their information.


    Coachable Moments.

     

    Here is another
    example.  If someone typically writes
    three or four sentences to respond to a particular question, but this week they
    only responded with three words, that might be an important thing to pay
    attention to and note.

    Sometimes a
    non-answer is important. Last week one of the questions was “What
    challenges are you facing? How are you going to fix it, and where do you need
    help?” 
    Someone answered that
    they were not facing any new challenges that week. Great, right?  Or, is that really an opportunity for
    coaching? 

    In that situation, my
    response was: “There are always challenges. Sometimes they are easy to spot
    because they clearly present themselves as problems.  Other times they can show up as opportunities
    or choices … Sometimes, however, they are harder to identify because they could
    stem from something as subtle as conflicting desires. Remember that the goal of the question to look above the
    day-to-day activities to focus on your higher level intent and purpose
    .”

    The point is that 15Five
    gives you great opportunities to add value – and the time to notice coachable
    moments. Here are some examples:

     

    • Is
      somebody telling you what they “don't
      want
      ” rather than what they
      intend to do
      ?
    • Are
      they so focused on the obstacles and challenge that they forget to recognize the opportunity or potential
      competitive advantage
      ?
    • Are
      there opportunities to include other
      people
      to create a unique ability team rather than a solo effort?
    • Are
      there things that you can express
      gratitude
      about or help the other person to feel proud about?
    • Are
      they focused on the forest for the trees? If so, what is a quick compass check to ensure that we are moving in the
      right direction
      ?
    • Are
      they focused on the right part of the problem; and have they right-sized it into chunks small enough to work on
      effectively
      ?
    • What does this
      accomplishment make possible
      ? And
      how can we continue to build confidence and momentum?

                                                                 

    From my perspective, the
    thought process and preparation may be more important than the answers
    themselves
    .

     

    So, Is It Worth Paying For?

     

    15Five helps avoid
    communication problems by creating and preserving appropriate context for
    decision-making.  In addition, it is a
    tool you can use to effectively direct focus and “steer” the company.

    It is also worth
    noting that 15Five feels like a separate tool. 
    Because of that, I suspect people respond differently to it than they would
    to a simple email or a discussion thread on the corporation’s private intranet.


    120914 15 and then 5Ultimately, this
    process is something that people like better and gain more value from as they
    do it more and do it better.

     

    Bottom Line: It
    clearly adds value. Give it a try.

    Energy flows where
    focus goes … and questions are a great way to direct focus.

     

    Planning is one
    thing, “real life” is another.  So, how do
    you give stakeholders a clear picture of what’s happening, the relevant business
    terrain, and the best path for them to navigate given their daily challenges
    and objectives?

                         

    15Five is a
    management tool that can help with those issues.  It consists of a few simple questions that
    each of your direct reports has an opportunity to fill out each week.

     

    The name, “15Five”, comes
    from the concept that it should take someone 15 minutes to think about and fill
    out their answers to these questions; while it should take you about five
    minutes (per person) to review those answers and give feedback. These responses
    can be public or private, as you see fit.

     

    The good news is that
    15Five is simple and usable.  You’ve
    probably heard the phrase “Garbage in, garbage out.”  More importantly, though, “Nothing in,
    nothing out.”  If people don’t use a
    tool, it is tough to benefit from it, regardless of how “good” it is.

     

     

    So, How Did Our Team Respond to This New
    Tool?

     

    Predictably, after a
    week or two of using it, several members of the team approached me to ask how
    long they'd have to do this. However, just a few weeks later, some of those
    same people shared how much they're enjoying the process.

                                                         

    Ultimately, they
    recognize that it's helping them raise their focus from the immediate to a
    chunk higher. They also recognize that it's a chance to have a one-on-one
    conversation with their boss about what they want to talk about … without
    taking time away from their work or interrupting their focus time.

     

    The 15Five process
    also gives respondents a chance to think about and prepare worthy answers
    (rather than to feel tongue-tied or regretful that they failed to mention
    something when they had the chance).  The
    result is something they are likely to be proud of – and something to build
    upon.

     

    For the manager, it
    is a chance to give individual attention to each respondent. It also provides
    an easy way to comment (or ask for additional information) about specific
    ideas. Just click a button and write your note. The other party gets an email
    that they can respond to directly, or they can see it in the conversation
    thread for that week’s report.

     

     

    Where Is Value Added?

     

    15Five helps people
    think about the business (rather than simply working through their daily grind).
    It helps them recognize why what they are doing matters, and how what they are
    doing helps move things in the right direction. 
    As a result, using the tool builds confidence and momentum. Ultimately,
    15Five helps people steer themselves to take appropriate actions and make
    better decisions.

     

    As a trader, I
    understand that price is the primary indicator of the market. However, to get a
    better understanding, many traders use secondary indicators (like sentiment,
    momentum, rate of change, or even the response to good or bad news).  Beyond a direct communication tool, these are
    the types of insights that the 15Five feedback mechanism makes possible.

     

    For example, don't
    just look at one week's set of responses in a vacuum. Instead, notice the tone
    and the amount of care that someone uses when they send you their information.

     

    Here is another
    example.  If someone typically writes
    three or four sentences to respond to a particular question, but this week they
    only responded with three words, that might be an important thing to pay
    attention to and note.

     

    Sometimes a
    non-answer is important. Last week one of the questions was “What
    challenges are you facing? How are you going to fix it, and where do you need
    help?” 
    Someone answered that
    they were not facing any new challenges that week. Great, right?  Or, is that really an opportunity for
    coaching? 

     

    In that situation, my
    response was: “There are always challenges. Sometimes they are easy to spot
    because they clearly present themselves as problems.  Other times they can show up as opportunities
    or choices … Sometimes, however, they are harder to identify because they could
    stem from something as subtle as conflicting desires. Remember that the goal of the question to look above the
    day-to-day activities to focus on your higher level intent and purpose
    .”

     

    The point is that 15Five
    gives you great opportunities to add value – and the time to notice coachable
    moments. Here are some examples:

     

    • Is
      somebody telling you what they “don't
      want
      ” rather than what they
      intend to do
      ?
    • Are
      they so focused on the obstacles and challenge that they forget to recognize the opportunity or potential
      competitive advantage
      ?
    • Are
      there opportunities to include other
      people
      to create a unique ability team rather than a solo effort?
    • Are
      there things that you can express
      gratitude
      about or help the other person to feel proud about?
    • Are
      they focused on the forest for the trees? If so, what is a quick compass check to ensure that we are moving in the
      right direction
      ?
    • Are
      they focused on the right part of the problem; and have they right-sized it into chunks small enough to work on
      effectively
      ?
    • What does this
      accomplishment make possible
      ? And
      how can we continue to build confidence and momentum?

                                                                    

    From my perspective, the
    thought process and preparation may be more important than the answers
    themselves
    .

     

     

    So, Is It Worth Paying For?

     

    15Five helps avoid
    communication problems by creating and preserving appropriate context for
    decision-making.  In addition, it is a
    tool you can use to effectively direct focus and “steer” the company.

     

    It is also worth
    noting that 15Five feels like a separate tool. 
    Because of that, I suspect people respond differently to it than they would
    to a simple email or a discussion thread on the corporation’s private intranet.

     

    Ultimately, this
    process is something that people like better and gain more value from as they
    do it more and do it better.

     

    Bottom Line: It
    clearly adds value. Give it a try.

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