Web/Tech

  • Elon Musk Is The Richest Person In The World

    On the 7th, it was announced that Elon Musk's wealth passed Jeff Bezos's $185 Billion net worth to become the wealthiest person in the world. This is driven by Musk's many companies – SpaceX, The Boring Company, OpenAi, Neuralink, and of course, Tesla.

    ErJJUk3VkAEwDzzThat valuation comes after Tesla's market value passed $700 Billion for the first time. His company is worth more than Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, GM, and Ford combined (despite not having nearly the distribution) based on Market Capitalization.

    Screen Shot 2021-01-10 at 2.55.18 PMvia EEAGLI

    NIO, BYD, and Xpeng should be on the list, but their market cap has increased so rapidly it seems the list used missed it. 

    With Tesla's almost meteoric rise, it raises the question of whether the value is based on the ongoing global expansion, or speculation driven primarily by traders believing other traders want it as well.  To put it in perspective, Tesla's revenue has been rising 50% a year, which is impressive, but the stock has increased 800% in a year. Its P/E ratio is over 1400. As well, Tesla's revenue is less than a tenth of many of the companies on this list – and many of the companies are launching their own electric vehicles. 

    To better compare the companies, a much better test is enterprise value which takes into consideration the company's debt obligations. 

    Screen Shot 2021-01-10 at 3.12.18 PMvia Radiatin

    This shows that Tesla is still very impressive – just slightly less impressive than the markets would have you believe. They have clearly taken on less debt than many of those companies, and their market cap likely helps them take on cheaper loans when they do pursue more debt. 

    I have a lot of faith in the future of Tesla as a company – but as a reminder, at the height of the 1990s tech bubble, Yahoo was worth more than all of the newspaper companies in the US. Toyota alone brings in 10x the revenue that Tesla currently does, and manufactures 25x as many cars. 

    Regardless – congratulations to Musk for the achievement. If you were curious how he intends to use his "newfound" wealth, Musk is committed to using his money for two major goals 1) Sustainable energy and 2) extending life/consciousness beyond Earth. 

    I guess you have to shoot for the stars … or at least planets.

  • Language Is A Limitation

    Man acts as though he were the shaper and master of language, while in fact language remains the master of man. - Martin Heidegger

    Words are powerful. They can be used to define reality, obscure reality, or create reality. Words can be constructive or destructive … uplifting or demoralizing. 

    In a sense, the power of words is seemingly limitless.  But that power cuts both ways. Language is also the cause of many of our problems. 

    We created language to aid social interactions and to facilitate our understanding of the world.  However, language also remains a constraint in how we perceive the world and a limitation on our understanding of new things (e.g., ideas, advances in technology, etc.).

    Before I go into where language fails us, it’s important to understand why language is important.

    Language Facilitates Our Growth

    Because without our language, we have lost ourselves. Who are we without our words? – Melina Marchetta

     

    Languageasalimit

     

    Language is one of the major keys to advanced thought. As infants, we learn through watching our environment, reading faces, and learning to infer things from body language. As we begin to understand "language," our brains develop faster.  In this context, language isn't limited to the spoken word – intelligence grows with the catalyst of language, whether it's vocalized or not.

    It's this ability to cooperate and share expertise through language that has allowed us to build complex societies and advance technologically – but it is becoming an increasingly inadequate tool as the world becomes more complex.

    Language as a Limitation

    When it comes to atoms, language can be used only as in poetry. The poet, too, is not nearly so concerned with describing facts as with creating images. -Niels Bohr

    In Buddhism, there's the idea of an Ultimate Reality and a Conventional Reality. The Ultimate Reality is the objective nature of something, and the Conventional Reality is tied inextricably to our cognition – heavily influenced by our language.

    Language conveys cultural values and biases, personal values and biases, and influences how we perceive “reality.” Linguistic differences create a wedge between various political groups – even when people probably want similar things.  In these cases, differences in language and perception create strife (rather than define it). 

     

    Ohsnapreality

     

    We use language and our past to sift and categorize existence into heuristics instead of exploring the true nature of things (in part because if you're trying to survive in the jungle, shortcuts increase your chance of survival by saving time and energy … and accuracy is secondary to survival). 

    On the other hand, when you're trying to expand the breadth and depth of humanities' capabilities, those same heuristics become shackles (or at least blinders). Ultimately, they can lead to issues like groupthink and echo chambers that limit not only innovation but communication. 

    Look at groups like Democrats v. Republicans or Israelis v. Palestinians. In reality, there are more similarities than differences. Nonetheless, on a day-to-day basis, each of them focuses more on their differences than finding collaborative solutions for life's tougher problems (or focusing on the things they do agree upon).

    Throwing rocks at our enemies also counterintuitively makes us feel better and promotes in-group unity. The problem is it comes at the cost of progress and true unity. 

    This is not to say that there aren't real (and important) differences between those groups. It simply recognizes that part of the problem is our willingness to accept "get-to-next" compromises rather than seeking understanding and committing to coming up with real and complete solutions.

    Humans Are The Real Black Box

    But if thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought - George Orwell

    People often refer to Artificial Intelligence as a "black box" – because the complexity and coding of the algorithms, etc. make it mysterious to a layman. But, Artificial Intelligence is programmed; it is precise and predictable. It is only influenced by the coding used to create it and the data fed to it; this creates its own form of transparency (and bias). 

    Meanwhile, humans are nuanced and (to some extent) non-rational creatures. We’re prone to cognitive biases, fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes. We create heuristics on previous experiences, and we can’t process information as cleanly or efficiently as a computer. 

    When humans explain their own behavior, they’re often inaccurate – what we hear is more likely a retrospective rationalization or confabulations than a summary and explanation of the choices they made.

    All-in-all, it results in a lot of confusion in trying to understand world events, each other, and even ourselves. 

    Conclusion

    I have friends on both sides of the political divide in America, and once you get past the rhetoric – there's a lot more in common than it seems. Excluding extremist groups, most are looking for unity, the "truth", and solutions to the problems in front of us.

    Conflict is often a symptom, not the disease.

    On a smaller scale, inside my company, I focus on creating a universal lexicon for our "intellectual shortcuts" because alignment starts with shared understanding.  If the language I'm using means something else to another team member, even if we think we're moving toward the same goal, we'll slowly stray further and further apart. 

    As a practical matter, spending too much time moving away from each other (or measuring the distance we are from each other) creates a self-fueling irritation that becomes increasingly annoying, and ultimately caustic. 

    Today's problems can't be fixed purely with semantics and semiotics, but they are not bad places to start. 

    If we start from a place of agreement and common desire to pursue something worthwhile, the distinctions will call us forward rather than pull us apart.

    I hope this helps.  Let me know what you think!

  • Google’s Year In Search

    While 2021 already feels like a long year – taking a look at the search trends from 2020 reminds us how much we can pack into a year.

    Google tracks the terms people search for using its platform.  Over time, the data about what people search for (and how many people are searching for it, and how long that topic stays relatively interesting to them) is interesting in and of itself.

    An infographic like this is interesting and valuable as a normalized contextual map of the "shock" and "awe" ripples felt by humans as a result of events (real or imagined) that happened around them.  

    It's worth noting that each graph is on a 100% scale, so "Death" having no drop off means it had a relatively consistent search history throughout the year. 

    The visualization is in chronological order to help highlight major events as they happened in 2020 (which is different than presenting the most searched terms in rank order). 

     

    V78l5due4b561via Roshaan Khan

    The only constants were death, Tesla, and TikTok … sounds about right. 

    It might be interesting to see a similar graph of the relative air-time given to topics on various news sources (e.gl, Fox News, MSNBC, Breitbart, NYTimes, WSJ, Washington Post, etc.).  The comparison of the word cloud, the intensity, the frequency, and the duration of the coverage would be interesting as well.  So would a comparison of your social media news feed to your choice of news source.

    On a different note, as I think back on last year, what's really crazy about this list is how many major events didn't make it (for example,  the wildfires, the Hong Kong protests, murder hornets, nuclear threats, cyber-attacks, Zoom, market crashes, etc.).

    The data is also somewhat biased.  While this is a global list, it's clearly dominated by India and the USA. That has a lot to do with the tech stack populations are allowed to use.  Remember that countries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea prevent their citizens from using the same "Internet" that we use and "encourage" them to use approved tools to surf, chat, or search. As such, their searches didn't impact Google's findings fully.

    you want to see more about this, Google put together a video and a more comprehensive list

    Best wishes for a great 2021.

    Onwards!

  • Getting To Here: Primal King Podcast

    Here is a podcast worth listening to at the beginning of a new year.

    A friend of mine, Derek Wilson, interviewed me about mindsets, decision-making, and calling the future you want into existence.

    I think it's a good episode,  and it feels very fitting as we start the new year. Check it out.  Or download a transcript made with Otter.AI

     

    Screen Shot 2021-01-02 at 11.26.13 PMv2

     

    You can also find his podcast on Apple Podcasts.

    Best wishes for a great 2021!

  • Processing A Bigger Future

    Whether you think you can or you think you can't. You're right. – Henry Ford

    Processing the possibilities of tomorrow is very difficult for humans.  Part of the problem is that we're wired to think locally and linearly. It's a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth … let alone its implications.  For example, consider what happened to seemingly smart and forward-looking companies like Kodak, Blockbuster Video, or RadioShack. 

    The world changes quickly.

    Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it, or not). 

    As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up … or the longer-term pain of being left behind.  Said a different way, you have to choose between chaos or nothing. 

    It is hard to keep up – and harder to stay ahead.

    Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie.  Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.

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    My company may not really do "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We use exponential technologies like high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning. 

    But, as we get "techier," I get less so … and my role gets less technical, over time, too.

    Because of my age, experience, and tendency to like pioneering … I've battled technology for decades. 

    Don't get me wrong, technology has always been my friend.  I still love it.  But my relationship with it is different now.

    I tend to focus on the bigger picture.  Also, I tend to appreciate technology on a more "intellectual" or "conceptual level" – but in a far less detailed way (and with much less expectation of using the technology, directly, myself).

    The Bigger Picture

    My father said, not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.

    You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress.  Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built.   That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting "how'. Why? Because technology doesn't often look for a problem; rather, it is the response to one.

    Here's a video from 1974 of Arthur C. Clarke making some very impressive guesses about the future of technology. 

     

    via Australia Broadcasting Corporation

    Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, and a host of exponential technologies are going to change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself).  Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities … but what they enable is virtually limitless.

    Where do see this going?

    We certainly live in exciting times.

    Onwards.

  • Why We Don’t See Aliens

    This week, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that we've been contacted by Aliens from a Galactic Federation – and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

    How naive to think that election news would be the craziest stuff you'd hear this holiday season …

    Back to aliens (for the record, that was a sentence I haven't typed before).  There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret. In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

    For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high-probability estimates for their existence. 

    To simplify the issue, there are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies), which are similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets. It isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us. Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies – interstellar travel isn't absurd. 

    Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and length of time we are talking about) … it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

    If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

     

    via TED

    In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

    1. Habitability and stability of their planet
    2. Building blocks of life 
    3. Technological advancement
    4. Socialness/Communication technologies

    But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

    Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life – and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. 

    E23

    What do you think?

    Here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

    To Infinity and Beyond!

  • Are We Alone In The Universe?

    Information Is Beautiful has an interactive data visualization to help you decide if we're alone in the universe. 

    As usual, for them, it is well done, fun, and informative. 

    For the slightly geeky amongst us, the model lets you adjust the estimate by playing with two equations: the Drake equation and the Seager equation.

    The Drake equation estimates how many detectable extraterrestrial civilizations exist in our galaxy and then in the Universe based on factors like habitable planets, change of life, and then intelligent life, and then the amount of time a civilization sends signals into space. 

    The Seager equation is a modern take on the equation focusing on bio-signatures of life that we can currently detect – for example, the number of observable stars/planets, what % have life, and then % chance of detectable bio-signature gas. 

     

    Screen Shot 2020-12-13 at 2.49.56 PMvia Information Is Beautiful

    For both equations, Information Is Beautiful lets you look at various default options but also playing with your own numbers to do the math. 

    For example, the skeptic default answer for Drake's equation shows 0.0000062 communicating civilizations in our galaxy and which is still 924,000 in the universe. The equivalent for Seager's equation shows 0.0009000 planets with detectable life in our "galactic neighborhood" and 135,000,000 planets in our universe. 

    Even with the "lowest possible" selection chosen, Drake's equation still shows 42 communicating civilizations (Douglas Adams, anyone?) in the universe.

     

    Screen Shot 2020-12-13 at 2.54.27 PMvia Information Is Beautiful

    One of the most interesting numbers (and potentially influential numbers for me) is the length of time a civilization sends signals into space. Conservative numbers are 420 years, but optimistic numbers are 10,000+. 

    If any aliens are reading this … don't worry, I won't tell.  But, we will find out if you voted in the last election.

  • Do Candles Smell Worse?

    Covid-19 rates are still rising in many places, and there's an unexpected consequence …

    Candle companies are getting much more negative reviews. Angry people everywhere seem to be reporting that the candles have no smell!  With Covid, perhaps they need to check if they've lost their sense of smell or taste (and whether they have a mild fever). 

    Katie Petrova, on Twitter, did some research to check if there was really a correlation. 

    En2drsoXUAMNU6tvia Katie Petrova

    And the results were as expected. In 2020, consumer ratings for scented candles declined much more than unscented candles, and there are spikes in reviews mentioning lack of scent during months with increased cases. 

    Since the beginning of this year, the proportion of reviews mentioning lack of scent grew from < 2% in January to close to 6% in November.

    That being said, unscented candle reviews are lowering too … which makes you think about the confounding variables. Are sales simply increasing to the point where reviews (and thus negative reviews) are increasing? Is it a result of people being bored/frustrated at home?

    I'd be curious to see how much candle (or other home scent improving products) purchases increased during 2020.

  • Trends To Watch Due To The Pandemic

    The pandemic has affected many things beyond basic health. Increasingly, I see research showing meaningful increases in pornography consumption, suicide rates, and a host of other trends that are shaping our world today … but, in the longer-term, it is also affecting the face of tomorrow. 

    Flexible Workplaces

    In May, after only several months of lock-down, I was surprised how many businesses decided that they had no intention of ever requiring their employees to come back into the office

    As we close in on a year in the pandemic, I am surprised how easily we adapted to the new normal.  Even with a vaccine in sight, I suspect many of the adaptations will remain.

    Personally, I like going to the office.  Most days, I still do … even though a tiny fraction of our people are there.

    With that said, I know that our business matured.  We are better at the skills, tools, and mindsets that make remote work possible or profitable. We've gotten better at deciding what's a meeting (versus an e-mail or an online chat). People are working hours that are more comfortable for them, and we see meetings happen both earlier and later than they used to, before the quarantine. 

    As a macro trend, we also see a flight from urban centers.

     

    Migration-from-urban-areas

    via visualcapitalist

    I keep hearing about people moving far from their work-places.  Ultimately, they decided that remote work enables a new form of freedom for them – to live where they want, regardless of what they do (or who they do it for).

    Over time, I'm curious how a remote workforce will impact the quality and the amount of work done. 

    Adding to my initial concerns, flexible workspaces cause (or exacerbate) other issues, including cybersecurity, digital collaboration, defining the new workday, and a host of other challenges. 

    Digital Explosion

    I remember the early 2000s and the distress I felt watching how many time cycles my son "wasted" being on his phone (which to me, at that time, seemed like "all-the-time"). But, in retrospect, that was nothing

    Flash forward to 2019, and everything was even more "digital" and "smart."  Refrigerators, exercise bikes, billboards, and more all had screens, and 2-year-olds were already digitally literate. "All-the-time" took on a whole new meaning.

    Somehow, the pandemic still took our reliance on the digital world (or our augmented alternate reality) to the next level. 

     

    PAN Graph for HEALTH Survey

    via Alaska DHSS

    Kids are also getting less physical activity and human contact, and spending much more time online.  Contributing to this is the reality that much of their academics have been forced online.  Likewise, adults also are shifting more of their attention and activity cycles to the digital world.

    Continued screen-time increases coincide with video game revenue spiking and Internet traffic increasing by more than 50% worldwide. 

    As the world opens up, I still expect digital reliance numbers to stay above pre-COVID benchmarks. People's reliance on digital to feed their need for information, entertainment, and companionship is growing.

    Changing Business Landscape

    Starting with consumers, we've seen a massive movement toward frictionless and touchless payment. Even physical stores are prioritizing getting in and out without having to deal with another human. In addition, there's a massive move toward delivery services for groceries and meals

    On top of the changes to normal retail services, reliance on online shopping has increased, while the time it takes for electronic purchases to your door has decreased. Combined, these factors will terraform commerce.  Consequently, this year was likely an inflection point for e-commerce penetration … and, from that perspective, life will never be the same again.

     

    Ecommerce-forecastvia visual capitalist

    Despite the growth of online retail, many small businesses that couldn't move online are struggling, and many have already gone under. 

    Which leads to the next trend …

    Increasing Wealth Stratification

    While small business owners and front line workers have been struggling, billionaires saw their wealth increase by over half a trillion dollars

    Part of this is due to government aid toward large companies, part of it is due to tax laws, and part of it is due to the digital rise mentioned in the previous section. The big tech companies were already thriving, and the pandemic created a positive inflection point. 

    Despite those gains, the pandemic hit millennials and small businesses hard. 

     

    200928_millennial-covid-impact_fullwidthvia Morning Consult

    The longer the economy is affected by COVID-19 measures, the larger the wealth inequality will grow, and the more people you can expect looking for government assistance. The strong will thrive while others will suffer increasingly from learned helplessness.

    Obviously, the 2020 quarantine has created impacts in many other areas – including family stress, community isolation, political radicalization, etc. Moreover, these effects won't be isolated to this year – and we should expect many to impact our "new normal" for years to come.

    Some people consider this a challenge. I think it's the playing field. It's going to be true for everyone. What you make it mean, and what you choose to do, it is up to you.  Some will be like a cork, floating on the water, going where the tide takes it. Others will recognize the situation as an opportunity and thrive.

    The impact has been global, but the choices you make are local … and they are still your to make.

    Here is to making 2021 our best year yet!

    Onwards!