Personal Development

  • How To Achieve Your Personal Goals in 2025

    A few weeks ago, I shared an article about annual planning (and how Capitalogix does it.) 

    This week, I want to discuss setting and meeting goals. 

    I'm a big-picture guy, and I spend a lot of my time thinking about longer-term possibilities, but it's also important to think about your strategy for the coming year. I tend to break that up by Quarters. Lower timeframes than that are more tactical, and I consider that short-term planning or scheduling.

    I think of it like using a map. To find the best route, you must start by figuring out where you are and where you want to be.

     

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    Activity, alone, isn't as important as many people hope. Think of it this way … from where you are, there are infinite potential paths – but motion in a particular direction isn't "progress" if it doesn't take you toward your desired destination.

    The right action is far more valuable than merely taking action … and that means beginning with the end in mind. You are unlikely to hit the target if you aren't aiming at it.

    Resolutions only work if you actually "want" to make them happen. It's one thing to hope that something happens; it's another to commit to making it happen. 

    With that said, here are some tips. 

    • Focus on What You Want.
    • Focus on Why You Want It.
    • Focus on Ways You Might Get it.
    • Focus on Evidence of Progress.

    Below, I'll take you through an example of each of the four steps.

    Moving Towards a Solution, Rather Than Suffering From the Problem.

    Like many people, I have three distinct collections of clothes: my "fat clothes," what I'm currently wearing, and my aspirational wardrobe. This personal reality reflects how our current state often sits between where we've been and where we want to go. Before I started getting healthy, my first instinct was to think, "I need to lose weight." Knowing that "you're fat" isn't helpful … my head quickly translated that to something a tad more positive yet generic, like: "I choose to be healthy and vital and to live a healthy lifestyle."

    Blah, blah … They are just words. What I needed was something specific, measurable, and actionable. How about: "I will lose 15 pounds and stop eating after dinner?" OK, but that isn't inspiring, and there isn't much for me to do. I can do better than that—and I need to—if I want to commit to the outcome.

    Figure-Out a Big Enough WHY, Rather Than Worrying about the HOW's.

    This post isn't about health and fitness; it is about the mindset and techniques for setting empowering goals and plans in any situation.

    So, while I could list many ways to lose weight (and I might even remember to do some of them), leveraging a driving force creates momentum. In other words, the first step in "Doing" is knowing WHY you want something.

    I really do want to be healthy, fit, and vital (it sure beats the alternatives), and I want to have the energy and confidence to live and enjoy my life fully. The world is my playground, and I want to take advantage of more opportunities to play with family and friends. However, to do those things, I must find better and more sustainable ways to live a healthy lifestyle.

    The WHYs are just as important for business goals, too.

    Focus on Potential Solutions Rather than Problems or Challenges.

    Obstacles Exist. The bad news: I don't eat fish, and I don't like vegetables (unless French Fries are vegetables). My joints aren't close to healthy from years of violent contact sports. I rarely get 7 hours of sleep, and being the CEO of a startup is stressful. The good news: none of those things matter, and even if they did, it just would mean that I have a lot of room for progress.

    It is natural to focus on obstacles, but most obstacles are surmountable—with a big enough WHY, I might even choose to start eating vegetables. Instead of dwelling on limitations, use them as a reminder to focus on potential solutions. They are beacons pointing the way.

    How do you do it? To focus on solutions, you can make two action-based lists: one is of things To-Do … and another is of things Not-To-Do.

    Here are some of the sample To-Do Items:

    • I will drink more water than coffee.
    • I will stretch or do basic calisthenics on days I don't go to the gym.
    • I will make a healthy shake as a meal replacement rather than a snack or mini-meal.
    • I will focus on relaxation and meditation as much as I focus on strength & physical exercises.

    Here is the actionable list of Not-To-Do Items.

    • I will not buy bigger pants or wear stretchy pants because of an expanding waistline.
    • I will not eat snacks out of their container – and will portion out what I want first.
    • I will not compare my current level of fitness to what I used to be able to do. Instead, I will focus on my actions and improvement.

    Create Healthier Habits.

    It is easy to follow a routine. So, here's another tip … make your routine better. Here are some examples of things you could do to make 'being healthier' happen with less effort.

    • Pre-sort your vitamins into daily doses, and keep them by the coffee machine.
    • Buy healthy snacks, like fruit, raw nuts, or organic energy bars (instead of chips).
    • Enjoy listening to music or a book/podcast during your "exercise time." Dedicating time to something doesn't mean you can't be multitasking.
    • Choose to walk the dogs or park at the end of the parking lot, so you get to walk.
    • Meet with friends at the gym or a hiking spot rather than at a bar or restaurant.

    You get the idea. Get in the habit of looking for ways to create better habits. What habits could you alter slightly to make a big difference? Which things can you automate or outsource?

    For three books about the subject, I recommend Tiny Habits by B.J. Fogg, Willpower Doesn't Work by Benjamin Hardy, or Atomic Habits by James Clear. 

    Focus on Your Progress.

    In this case, it really is about the journey. Instead of tracking how far you have to go … notice how far you've come. Utilize an internal locus of control. It is about creating energy, momentum, and a sense of possibility. You may have a big, hairy, audacious goal in mind. That's fine, as long as you realize that reaching each milestone along the way is still an accomplishment.

    • Find shoes that don't hurt your feet.
    • Pick a gym or a personal trainer that you enjoy.
    • Run more than two laps without stopping.

    It doesn't matter what they are … they all count as long as you know you are moving in the right direction.

    Summary

    The point of this exercise was not really to focus on fitness. These techniques and goal-setting tools work in any situation. The principles are:

    1. First, determine what you want and why it is important. Then, focus on only the few things that are truly important to you. 
    2. Second, find something you can do right now that will move you in the right direction.
    3. Third, notice which things create (rather than take) energy. Spend your time on those, and automate or create routines to take care of the rest.
    4. Fourth, plan forward but measure backward. Set milestones so that you can recognize and celebrate your progress.

    In my business, this translates to having a mission and vision – defining what we want, why it's important, and the basic strategy to achieve it. Then, we create yearly "Big 3" goals that move us toward that long-term vision. Then, the team creates SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely) and KPIs (key performance indicators) or OKRs (Objectives and Key Results) that measure evidence of success. Doing those things lets the team know where to spend their time and whether they're on the right track.

    It isn't magic, but it works.

    Hope this helped.

    If you're interested, here are a few more articles I've written on health and longevity. 

    Onwards!

  • Making The Intangible … Tangible

    I remember getting excited when my son finally seemed smart enough that I believed he was more intelligent than our dog. For the record, it took longer than I thought it would.

    Likewise, human and chimpanzee infants start out remarkably similar in their early development. But here's where it gets interesting – their developmental paths take dramatically different turns once human babies begin acquiring language. This cognitive fork in the road fundamentally shapes their future capabilities.

    Language is a big domino. It allows "chunking" and makes learning new things more efficient, effective, and certain.

    Language is powerful in and of itself. Using language consciously is a multiplier.

    Today, I want to focus on one such use of language – the power of naming things. 

    The Power Of Naming Things

    “I read in a book once that a rose by any other name would smell as sweet, but I've never been able to believe it. I don't believe a rose WOULD be as nice if it was called a thistle or a skunk cabbage.” - L.M. Montgomery, Anne of Green Gables

    Before I go into detail, I shot a video on the subject, with a few examples from our business. 

    via Capitalogix's YouTube Channel

    Having a shared language allows you to communicate, coordinate, and collaborate more efficiently. But it's hard to have a shared language when you're discussing something intangible. 

    That's where naming comes in. When you name something, you make the "invisible" visible (for you, your team, and anyone else who might care). 

    I've often said the first step is to bring order to chaos. Then, wisdom comes from finer distinctions. Naming is a great way to create a natural taxonomy that helps people understand where they are – and where they are going.

    I like thinking of it in comparison to value ladders in marketing. 

    Value-ladder

    Each stage of the value ladder is meant to bring you to the next level. By the time someone gets to the top of the value ladder, they're your ideal customer. In other words, you create a natural pathway for a stranger (meaning someone who doesn't know you well) to follow, to gain value, trust, and momentum onwards … ultimately, ascending to become someone who believes in, and supports, what you offer and who you are. 

    Ultimately, successful collaboration relies on a common language. That is part of the reason naming is so important. The act of naming something makes it real, defines its boundaries and potentialities, and is often the first step toward understanding, adoption, and support. 

    Creating "Amplified Intelligence"

    There are always answers. We just have to be smart enough. - John Green

    Here is an example from our business. When we first started building trading systems, all we had was an idea. Then, we figured out an equation (and more of them). Next, we figured out some methods or techniques … which became recipes for success. As we progressed, we figured out a growing collection of useful and reliable ways to test, validate, automate, and execute the things we wanted to do (or to filter … or prevent the things we wanted to avoid or ignore).

    It probably seemed chaotic to someone who didn't understand the organizing principles. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt, which inhibit potential customers and stakeholders (such as a business's employees), compound the problem.

    Coming up with the right organizing principle (and name) makes it easier to understand, accept, and adopt. For example, many traders and trading firms want to amplify intelligence – meaning they want to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and ultimately perform better (which might mean making and keeping more money). To help firms amplify intelligence, we created the Capitalogix Insight Engine (which is a platform of equations, algorithms, methods, testing tools, automations, and execution capabilities). Within that platform, we have functional components (or modules) that focus on ideas like portfolio construction, sensible diversification, alpha generation, risk management, and allocation strategies. Some of those words may not mean much to you if you're not a trader, but if you are, it creates an order that makes sense and a path from the beginning to the end of the process.

    It makes sense. It explains where we are – while informing them about what might come later.

    The point is that naming things creates order, structure, and a contextual map of understanding.

    It is a compass heading used to navigate and guide in uncertain territory.

    On the other hand, beware of the consequences of becoming overly connected to labels. 

    Hope that helps.

  • How AIs (Like ChatGPT) Learn

    I first wrote about this video a few years ago, when artificial intelligence first captured the media's attention. Back then, we were impressed that algorithms could help you pick out your Christmas gifts on Amazon, suggest new music for you on Spotify, and do their best to capture your attention on websites. 

    AI is seemingly everywhere now. And what is surprising to me isn't its prevalence or impact … it is the speed and breadth of its adoption. Last night, at an early holiday dinner, we talked extensively about how easy to adopt and how accessible tools like ChatGPT are (and almost none of us were Nerds). 

    With all that being said, I think it's wise to have a basic understanding of the things that most impact our lives. Even if you're not a big fan of AI, understanding its growing powers will benefit you. 

    The video below is a bit simple in its explanations, but it describes some fundamental concepts worth understanding.

     

    CGP Grey via Youtube

    The video is engaging and easy to understand. It focuses on genetic algorithms (which is one type of machine learning) and ignores some of the other more complicated techniques and approaches. For example

    In my experience, it is more useful for an executive to understand what tools like this can do rather than how they work. Likewise, it is better to understand when to use tools like this rather than knowing precisely how to use them. But, a cursory understanding like this video still adds value. 

    As machine learning gets more complicated and evolves, it gets harder for humans to assess their output or process accurately. Here is something to consider:

    How do you know that the answer it gives is the answer you seek?

    Just because an algorithm responds quickly and confidently doesn't mean it's right.

    While bots can deliver impressive results, their decision-making processes can be opaque. This presents both a risk and an opportunity. Artificial intelligence seems cool, but artificial stupidity is scary … and making mistakes at light speed rarely results in good outcomes.

    It's human nature to feel safer when we understand something. It's human nature to envision machines making human-like decisions, just faster. But we are quickly going beyond that … way beyond that!

    In the past, algorithms were static while data changed. But now we're in a different world – one where the algorithms themselves evolve and dramatically adapt to handle different types of data. While this might sound like a subtle distinction, it represents a fundamental shift in how AI systems learn and operate.

    One of the challenges of understanding exponential technologies is that their progress isn't linear. This makes it difficult for humans to accurately gauge how rapidly these tools will advance in capability. As algorithms grow more complex, they will increasingly operate in ways that may not be fully understood by their developers (and even less so by their users). As a result, we'll likely find ourselves using AI to solve problems and accomplish tasks that aren't even on our radar today. 

    It might sound strange, but it doesn't matter why a bot makes a decision or what inputs it uses to make the decision. What matters is whether it accomplishes its goal and how its performance and level of decision-making rank in relation to its prior performance and other options (and, perhaps, whether the bot is biased).

    Part of what makes artificial intelligence exciting is that it can do a lot of things well that humans are really bad at. And, even when you're using an AI in your domain expertise, it can be a great first step to save you time and effort. 

    It's a brave new world, and not only is Big Brother watching, but algorithms are, too.

    Live long and prosper!

  • Are You Ready For The Holidays?

    As we near the holidays, you'd think people would be getting cheerier. Jollier, you might say. 

    Instead, the holidays tend to bring out the worst in people. 

    Why is it often easier to be nice to a stranger (or a dog) than someone you deal with regularly? Emotional baggage is likely the answer. Things like anger, resentment, pain, fear, uncertainty, and doubt are inhibitors that can affect how we interact with others. Frustratingly, our challenges often stem directly from what we bring to each situation ourselves.

    It reminded me of one of the earliest videos I shot almost 10 years ago. It highlights the importance of allowing energy to flow freely, enabling individuals to remain focused and resilient in the face of challenges. It doesn't matter what happens … what matters is what you choose to focus on, make it mean, and choose to do.

     

    Sometimes, things don't seem to go well. Despite the annoying evidence to the contrary, it's probably not them … Which means it is probably you (or at least what you focus on). 

    The antidote to negative situations is simple – focus on your progress and the reasons behind your efforts.

    The recipe for success (and happiness this holiday season) isn't eggnog … it is to choose to let energy flow and to have an unrelenting focus on your bigger future.

    Bring on 2025!

  • Ready Fire Aim!

    Michael Masterson wrote a book called Ready Fire Aim: Zero to $100 Million In No Time Flat. It is a practical guide for entrepreneurs and business leaders, focusing on the different stages of business growth and the key challenges and priorities at each stage.

    A core message of the book is to start taking action quickly (instead of getting bogged down in over-planning) and use rapid iteration and real-world feedback to refine strategies.

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    The concept is presented in the context of growing a business – yet the lessons apply broadly. 

    Swift action should be your focus … not over-planning or perfect timing.

    Too many companies get stuck in a cycle of brainstorming, getting internal feedback, making changes, and failing to release the product.

    Even for released products, too many fail because they took too long to launch or ignored market feedback. 

    Masterson stresses that the value of live performance is that it helps you course-correct. He also cautions that there is no such thing as perfect timing. The best timing is almost always ‘Now!’

    Now, let’s extrapolate. 

    Let’s say you’re pondering a tricky work problem. You know you need to figure it out before the end of the week … but your brain keeps going in circles. 

    You don’t believe you can take decisive action and course-correct because you feel you have to get it right. 

    So, what can you do? Write it out. Write out the potential paths, ramifications, and worst-case scenarios as holistically as possible. 

    You’ll find that simply by writing it out instead of just ‘thinking,’ you end up more creative with more insight. 

    Writing aids in organizing and clarifying your thoughts. 

    AI As Your ‘Action’ Partner 

    AI can make this process easier, faster, and more manageable. Tools like ChatGPT can help you explore complex topics, run scenarios for you, and provide external feedback. 

    It’s not the same as real-world feedback, but it can shorten the ‘Aim’ part of the process. 

    As you externalize your thoughts in writing them to whatever AI you choose, you also get the same benefit you did writing your thoughts out in our previous example. 

    The business environment is changing faster than ever. Technology is advancing faster, adoption is getting easier, and the average Joe is becoming bullish on AI. Because of that, Masterson’s book is even more relevant now than it was in 2007. Here are a few of the other key takeaways from Ready, Fire, Aim.

    • Adapt Your Role: As a company scales, leaders must shift from “doing” to guiding and from tactics to strategy.
    • Be Sales-Focused: Keep revenue generation as a core priority, especially in the early stages.
    • Build Scalable Systems: Invest in operations and leadership at the right time to support sustainable growth.
    • Innovate Continuously: Avoid complacency by fostering an organizational culture that balances efficiency with creativity.

    AI and exponential technologies are going to compress cycle types. What used to be long-term planning will just be planning. You have to act fast, not only to capitalize on these trends but also to avoid being wiped out by them. 

    Are you keeping up?

  • Have You Started Planning For 2025?

    We’ve officially started our annual planning for the new year.

    The process is relatively straightforward. We start by deciding what the company’s three highest priority goals are. With those goals as the base, each department (and manager) creates a big three representing what they can do to reach the company’s big three. From there, we dive into quarterly rocks, SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, actionable, relevant, and timed), and the explicit tactical steps it will take to accomplish what we set out to achieve.

    The meetings are going well. There is a lot of back-and-forth idea sharing, negotiating, and priority setting.

    Nonetheless, I had a sneaking suspicion that sometimes what seemed like a dialogue was really multiple monologues.

    The reason for the disconnect (or misconnect) was that the participants had fundamental beliefs, at a higher level than we were discussing, that were at odds with each other.

    With that said, another important component of meaningful communication is a shared understanding of a common language. Words can mean different things to different people. Simply agreeing on a “word” is different than agreeing on a common meaning.

    I shot two videos that I think help teams get to alignment.

    Thinking About Your Thinking

    The first video discusses several techniques to enhance your decision-making.

     

    One of the ideas is something called “Think, Feel, Know.” Basically, it explains that you have to deal with superficial thoughts before getting to deeper feelings. Then, you must deal with those feelings before you get to “knowing”.

    Another technique discussed in the video involves adding time to look for “insights” after working on something. Those insights are often the seeds for something greater.

    Chunking Higher

    The second video explains how to chunk high enough to start from a place of agreement. Exploring distinctions from there is relatively easy.

     

    I’m a big fan of picking a Big Hairy Audacious Goal (sometimes called a “BHAG”) and taking actions that move you in that direction.

    One of the keys to this is chunking high enough to name the roles, goals, and strategies you select with timeless language (meaning that the target words hold up even as you pivot and adjust your focus and actions).

    While doing this, I realized that my ideal next chunk of years involves taking Capitalogix to the next level (and beyond) through collaboration, cooperation, and joint ventures.

    Once you know your long-term goal, planning the steps you need to achieve it is relatively easy. Achieving smaller goals reinforces successes, builds momentum, and makes continued progress feel more likely.

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    Extra points if you make them SMARTs (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-Bound).

    Actions speak louder than words, and your words can distract you.

    It’s OK to misstep, and it’s OK to get stuck – but recognize where you are and what you’ve done … and move forward.

    Delayed gratification happens when you want something badly but cannot get it right away. The result is often anger or frustration.

    Meanwhile, the mainstream media broadcasts a seemingly non-stop stream of messages screaming for immediate attention and gratification. The result of that is not good either (for example, it can result in higher rates of obesity, drug abuse, and depression).

    Don’t be fooled. Overnight successes are rarely actually overnight successes (for long).

    To summarize these concepts:

    1. Make sure you have a common language
    2. Begin with the end in mind
    3. Start with the highest level of agreement
    4. Make distinctions from there

    Hope that helps.

    Over the next 25 years, there are many people I want to impact – and many goals I want to accomplish.

    It hasn’t always been easy – but building Capitalogix has been an intensely rewarding passion. It has been easier because I want what I want. Make sure you know what you really want … it makes getting it much easier.

    I look forward to you all being a part of it as well. Here’s to a successful 2025 and an even more successful 2050.

  • Thoughts From a New Beginning

    My son Zach got married this weekend. 

    Watching how thoughtfully and carefully they planned the wedding to keep it intimate and meaningful was heartwarming.

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    The wedding was for them, with parents and siblings as the only guests. They did it at the location of their first date, had their favorite desserts, and wore non-traditional outfits. I believe they will have a party in the spring.

    A wedding is a significant life event. So, I’m sharing a few of the thoughts it triggered.

    Since they were born, I have been struck by how similar and different my two sons have been. My older son, Ben, is very analytical and yet surprisingly heart-centered, while Zach is very emotionally-centered and yet very intelligent. That slight difference in their center of gravity has been impactful. Ben has always been a “less is more” kind of guy, while Zach has always been a “more is more” kind of guy.

    Nature is funny … and I believe that how you do something is how you tend to do almost everything. For example, Ben always had a plan — yet, Zach was different … until he fell in love with rugby, and everything changed. I saw him approach fitness, health, schedules, time, and almost everything differently. That exposes an interesting truth – You don’t tend to win races you don’t want to win. Something deeper has to inspire the effort. When you find something deeper, the rest becomes easier. Even in his 30s, rugby is still his passion. 

    As a parent, a small part of me wished that Zach’s focus on rugby had gone to school or business or something … But that’s not how I really felt. As a father, I knew that once I saw that he knew how to focus on what he wanted, he could focus on anything he wanted. Because once he knew how to do it for one thing, he could do it for anything.

    It was like that for me when I met Jennifer – everything changed. I knew so fast. So, when I saw how everything changed for Zach when he met Sloane, I knew the same thing happened.

    Here's how I knew he really loved her. Zach’s favorite food groups are cheese fries, bacon, and extra grease. So, his falling in love with a gluten-free vegan (and not only tolerating it – but defending it) showed me something massively important. For the record, he’s been protective and focused on Sloane ever since. And because of that, I know how this turns out.

    I want to say how proud I am of Zachary and how happy I am for both of them as we welcome Sloane to the family.

    Her love has brought out the best in Zach, and we can’t wait to see the life they’ll build together.

    That reminds me of something I thought about several times during the wedding … it is that love is both a noun and a verb. It’s a thing (a state, a feeling, or even a target) … but it’s also something that you can choose, commit to, and do. The noun without the verb is frustrating – because you couldn’t move towards it and would have to get lucky to experience it. But the verb without the noun would be exhausting because you’d always be searching without finding or driving toward something that you don’t arrive at. This perspective on love as both a state and an action resonates as a natural truth for me. It is like inhaling and exhaling … one without the other is futile.

  • Finding The Path Of Least Resistance …

    There’s a concept in design and transportation called Desire Paths. 

    A Desire Path is the path users take instead of the path intended by the builder. 

    Here’s a great example. 

    6tj18p093vb81Reddit via itstartswithani

    If you are interested, there is an active online community forum that shares examples of Desire Paths. It may give you some ideas and knowing laughs.

    I am a creature of habit, and even though much of what I think, feel, or do seems to be happening based on real-time choices or decisions, much of that is just a well-worn rut of unconscious behavior.

    As a subtle reminder to my son, who just got married, expect many of your existing Desire Paths to change (even if you don’t want them to).

    The lesson … It’s often easier to account for or take advantage of human nature (or nature) than to fight against it. 

    Here is a short video on how this relates to your business and tech adoption. I call it Functional Mapping. Check it out. 

     

    The video provides additional depth and detail beyond what’s covered in this post. I encourage you to watch it for a more complete perspective.

    Understanding the natural path for both technology and people makes it easier to understand and anticipate the capabilities, constraints, and milestones that define your path forward.   That means you actually have to understand the different types of users and what they expect to do. Here’s a diagram that explains how we build AI-enabled applications.

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    Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desired capabilities and automation.

    It isn’t really about building the technology; instead, it is about supporting the desire.

    You don’t have to get it right. You just have to create momentum in the right direction.   Meaning … if you can anticipate what is coming, you don’t have to build it. Instead, you should figure out where you want to build or create something that will move things in the right direction to help make that happen or benefit from it when it happens.

    You’ve probably heard me talk about how Capabilities become Prototypes. Then, Prototypes become Products. And, ultimately, Products become Platforms.

    This model is fractal. That means it works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

    What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.

    SpaceX’s goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now … but once it’s achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.

    This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them. 

    It helps you anticipate which potential outcomes you want to accelerate. Rather than simply figuring out the easiest next step … you have to figure out which path is the best next step to your desired outcome.

    The world is changing fast! Hope you’re riding the wave instead of getting caught in the riptide!

    Onwards.

  • How Hard Is It To Run A Business In America?

    Running a business is hard. Of course, most people know that – but now VisualCapitalist has put together a chart to help visualize that sentiment. 

     

    This chart tracks the survival rate of businesses founded in 2013, by industry.

    via visualcapitalist

    20% of companies tracked failed in the first year … and only one-third last a decade.

    The numbers are worse than that in tech, mining, and oil & gas. Interestingly, those industries receive some of the largest government subsidies. 

    But, if you are reading this, chances are that you are a survivor. So, take pride in knowing the odds you've overcome … and be thankful. 

    It is Thanksgiving this week.

    Onwards! 

  • Futurism and The Epidemic of Impossible Statistics

    I can’t pretend this is a new phenomenon, but I also can’t pretend it’s not becoming a pet peeve of mine. 

    If you’ve been following me for any amount of time, you’ll know I love the future, and I love random statistics. If I’m not talking about AI or entrepreneurship, it’s generally because I’m sharing some interesting chart or statistic. 

    At the intersection of my two loves comes a pretty severe issue …

    Bullshit statistics. 

    Image_the-true-color-of-white-lies

    Futurists can’t help themselves. If you repeat something enough times, it begins to feel true. This is a key part of the reality distortion field that surrounds charismatic leaders. Their “functional fiction” becomes useful – not because it’s grounded in fact, but because it enables us to envision what’s possible and work to make it real.

    In their defense, nobody minds if you talk about the future broadly. However, a problem arises when directional belief masquerades as fact or science. For example, if someone has thought about something many times, there is a tendency to confidently discuss or project exponential growth with specific timelines and metrics (rather than broadly discussing what will eventually come).

    This tendency can make intelligent people seem delusional (or at least out of touch).

    Elon Musk is a great example. While he has undeniably been a significant force for innovation and progress in the world, here are a few of the outlandish claims he’s made recently.

    Some of those may be true, and all of them might turn out to be right … but they are still wild-ass guesses.

    Elon is by no means the only one doing this. 

    I routinely make up statistics to help me simplify or understand things better. The key is to acknowledge these “shortcuts” are still essentially educated guesses. Here’s an example. When I imagine how advanced AI will become by the end of my lifetime, I have to consider my current age (and expected lifespan) and how rapidly AI is improving. If I assign the number “100” to how good AI will be at the end of my life, what value would I assign to it now? Turns out, I’d give it a value of three. Of course, there’s always the possibility I could get hit by a bus tomorrow. I’m not a scientist. I haven’t done detailed research about chips or when we move to quantum computing. Realistically, I don’t have to. The precise numbers aren’t what matters here. I don’t take that statistic literally. It’s directional, and it gives a sense of the rate of change and the velocity of invention. In that sense, even though it isn’t factual, it’s useful.

    I’d say any serious scientist knows that you can’t reliably predict the future with that level of precision – but it doesn’t take a scientist to know that. 

    First, the statistic or shortcut has to pass a simple “sniff” test. Then, you have to account for likely bottlenecks or constraints. Too many of these crazy estimates assume almost infinitely scaling results with no setbacks or limitations in materials or energy. 

    Don’t underestimate the value of a good rule-of-thumb or mental model. Moore’s Law is a great example of that. It stemmed from an observation and prediction about the semiconductor industry made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965. A grossly simplified version is that computing power doubles every two years. That has held true for more than 50 years.

    I have two Gaping Void illustrations that express fundamental truths about this: “First, Bring Order to Chaos” and “Wisdom Comes from Finer Distinctions.”

    Here’s the reality. The future is exciting … and it’s coming fast. In many ways, it will likely be bigger and cooler than you could have imagined. In other ways, it will radically underperform your expectations. 

    I can say that not because I know any more than you, but because I’m focused on what doesn’t change. We’ve had many periods of innovation … each bigger than the last. It’s likely there will be aspects of the next 20 years no one can predict. But, we know what innovation looks like. 

    We’ve been here before. 

    As a reminder, if it sounds too good to be true … there’s a good chance it is. Yet, to pretend there’s not a chance outlandish claims will come true would be to make too precise a claim again. 

    In many ways, predicting how your business or product will change is much easier than how the world will change.

    The best way to predict the future is to create it – and the most effective way to create it is to focus on the elements within your control.

    While it’s important to play an exponential game … you can start “locally”. 

    Food for thought!