Business

  • Americans’ Top Financial Concern

    It's no secret that the economy is slowing – with high inflation rates and rising interest rates. 

    According to Mohamed El-Erian, from Queens College at Cambridge University, we're experiencing stagflation – which is when inflation is high but growth is slowing significantly. Theoretically, that leads to recession. 

    Inflation-Top-Financial-Concern_Infographicvia visualcapitalist

    The Consumer Price Index has also grown by over 8% in the past year, so the American household is facing financial threats from many angles. 

    Many feel that the Fed has responded disappointingly recently, and their response (or lack thereof) will be a major dictator of whether we enter a recession. 

    I believe that emotions play a role too. When people are afraid, they spend less and hoard what they can to save themselves from an unknown future. They feel anticipatory grief.  And their fear, uncertainty, and doubt ripple through society and our lives. 

    Personally, I've weathered my heaviest storms by sailing toward the future regardless of the threats. An abundance mindset is a powerful tool, and as more people feel confident it becomes a macroeconomic trend with real influence. 

    I'd encourage you to think about what opportunities there are and will be. There are always seasons of change … Winter eventually comes – and goes. Nevertheless, winter can be a great opportunity to plan your next moves and build the infrastructure to sow more seeds in the coming spring. 

    As well, unlike nature, you can personally have springtime while the majority are in winter. We're currently in an A.I. springtime – and I believe that will continue regardless of economic trends. 

    Happy to talk about this … Let me know what you are thinking and feeling!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – July 2nd, 2022

    Businessman-stands-in-front-of-a-diving-stock-market-graph-with-trough-lab-new-yorker-cartoon_u-l-pgqnyd0

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • How Bad Were The Markets In The First Half Of 2022?

    The S&P 500 has had its worst first half performance since 1970. 

    Screen Shot 2022-07-01 at 3.30.06 PMvia AXIOS

    But, the S&P's performance isn't the only danger indicator. 

    Screen Shot 2022-07-01 at 3.32.52 PMvia Fortune

    Stocks, bonds, crypto, and more, all saw rapid declines in the first half of 2022. 

    It's hard to pin the blame on any one factor. Was it the result of the actions we took to stabilize the economy during the throes of Covid? Is it the runaway inflation, Russia, or the continuing supply-chain issues? 

    It feels like everything that could go wrong – is going wrong. I mean, how often do stocks and bonds fall at the same time?

    On a positive note, bear markets are often much shorter than bull markets.  Also keep in mind that while global growth is slowing, innovation isn't!

    Don't forget, “Winter” for the economy or a particular industry doesn't have to be winter for you. 

    Onwards! 

  • Companies With The Most Patents in 2021

    Intellectual Property is an important asset class in exponential industries.

    Why?  Because I.P. is both a property right (that increases the owner's tangible and intangible value) and a form of protection.

    They say good fences make good neighbors.  But you are also more willing to work to build an asset if you know that your right to use and profit from it is protected.

    As a result of that thinking, Capitalogix has numerous patents – and we're developing a patent strategy that goes far into the future.  So, it's a topic that's front of mind for me.

    Consequently, this visualization of which companies got the most patents last year caught my eye.  In 2021, the U.S. granted over 327,000 patents.  Here is who got them.

     

    DS-Top-25-Companies-with-the-Most-New-Patents-in-2021-main-Apr20Raul Amoros via VisualCapitalist

    While IBM isn't the public-facing industry leader they once were, they've been topping the list for most patents for the past three decades.  Their patents this past year cover everything from climate change to energies, high-performance computing, and A.I.. 

    What ideas and processes do you have that are worth patenting?  And, what processes are worth not patenting – to keep from prying eyes?

    Food for thought … Onwards!

  • Thoughtful Entrepreneur Podcast

    Recently I had a chance to talk with Josh Elledge on his Thoughtful Entrepreneur podcast. We talked about AI's inevitable influence on trading as well as my experience as an entrepreneur. 

    Getson Wide

    Despite mis-spelling Capital Logix … it's Capitalogix … the conversation we had is worth a listen. 

    Check it out.  

  • Happy Father’s Day 2022

    For Father's Day, my youngest son took me to see Top Gun 2 in DFX.  It's been a while since I've been in a movie theatre, and this was a movie worth doing the right way.  It lived up to the hype. 

    He also took me to brunch and invited his girlfriend – a rare occasion that I hope becomes more common.

    It's been ten years since he started working with me at Capitalogix. Here's his first professional pic and his most recent.  Time flies while you are getting older!

    B5AF31D4-F28F-4149-8F13-9E20CA46BCDB

    As a father, having great kids is a double blessing.  On one hand, it's nice to be proud of who your kids are and the things they do.  On the other hand, it's also nice to feel proud of the small part you played in helping them become who they are.  It's also my first Father's Day as a grandfather.   After decades of messing with my kids, now I get to mess with a new generation! 

    Of course, I also look back … and spent some time thinking about my father and his terrific influence on so many lives.  

    IMG_2766

    My Dad was incredibly loving.  Yet, he was also incredibly demanding.

    For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, I watched him run down from the stands.  I figured he was coming down to celebrate.  Instead, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was disappointed that I did not throw a personal best that day?  I replied: "But Dad, I won." He smiled and recognized that winning was important too … then he reminded me that the other throwers were not the real competition.  In life, to be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself; and we both knew I could do better.

    My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He explained that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted by other things and meeting the minimum standards for them as well.

    Here is something else worth sharing; it was one of his favorite sayings.  "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things.  For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them.  The point is to set a higher standard and to have a better life.

    Well, that should explain a little of the dysfunction …  but, if you can't mess up your own kids, whose kids can you mess up?

    Hopefully, you had a happy Father's Day weekend. 

  • Visualizing Oil Prices in Response to Economic Events

    In the past, I've talked about where America gets its oil, and how data is more than just "the new oil". 

    During the worst of the pandemic, oil prices dropped almost 40%. They've now risen 216% from that pandemic low. With gas prices skyrocketing, it's probably time to look at historical oil prices.

    Visual Capitalist put together a simple infographic. 

    Historical_Oil_Pricesvia visualcapitalist

    So why are prices so high? Unfortunately, large portions of the world's oil reserves are in regions prone to political conflict.

    Currently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is leading to supply uncertainty and rising prices.

    Meanwhile, oil companies are bringing in record profits. 

    Oil prices are a complicated topic because supply and demand aren't particularly responsive to price changes in the short term. Regardless of price, people need to drive. And, regardless of demand, it takes time and money to drill new oil wells. 

    As a result, you can see mismatches, like today, where uncertainty has raised prices, but oil companies are doing tremendously well. 

    The question now becomes … where does it end? Does it take a resolution to the current conflict? Or, will prices reach a ceiling and fall back down based on other factors?

  • Dall-E …. Not Wall-E: AI-Generated Art

    Neural networks creating images from text isn't new.  I wrote about it in 2019 when AI self-portraits were going viral. 

     


    Mauro Martino via YouTube

    Just like VR is getting a new lease on life, despite its age, AI-generated art is getting another 15-minutes of fame. 

    This past week, a new model called Dall-E Mini went viral.  It creates images based on the text prompts you give it – and it's surprisingly good.  You even can give Dall-E absurd prompts, and it will do its best to hybridize them (for example, a kangaroo made of cheese). 

    Unfortunately, like our current reality, Dall-E may not be able to produce cheap gas prices.  Nonetheless, it is fun to try.  Click the image to enter the concepts you want Dall-E to attempt to represent.

    My projectvia Dall-E mini

    While the images themselves aren't fantastic, the tool's goal is to understand and translate text into a coherent graphic response.  The capabilities of tools like this are growing exponentially (and reflect a massive improvement since I last talked about AI-generated images).

    Part of the improvement is organic (better hardware, software, algorithmic evolution, etc.), while another part comes from stacking.  For example, Dall-E's use of GPT-3 has vastly increased its ability to process language. 

    However, the algorithms still don't "understand" the meaning of the images the way we do … they are guessing based on what they've "seen" before.  That means it's biased by the data it was fed and can easily get stumped.  The Dall-E website's "Bias and Limitations" section acknowledges that it was trained on unfiltered internet data, which means it has a known, but unintended, bias to be offensive or stereotypical against minority groups. 

    It's not the first time, and it won't be the last, that an internet-trained AI will be offensive. 

    Currently, most AI is essentially a brute force application of math masquerading as intelligence and computer science.  Fortunately, it provides a lot of value even in that regard. 

    The uses continue to get more elegant and complex as time passes … but we're still coding the elegance. 

    An Elegant Use Of Brute Force_GapingVoid

     

    Onwards!

  • A Look At The Best Athletes

    There is a huge difference between good and great.

    Apparently, there is often a huge difference between the great and the greatest.

    In sports, there are many fantastic athletes whose names we will remember.  Then there are the athletes who stand apart from the rest … like Michael Phelps or Usain Bolt. 

    I recently stumbled upon a few charts highlighting the stratification between the top 1% and the #1. 

    Tom Brady

    Screen Shot 2022-06-03 at 4.16.30 PMvia NY Times

    To put that statistic in perspective, no other quarterback has even played in 35 postseason games …  but that is another measure of Tom Brady's greatness. 

    Jerry Rice

    9ykdftkjfe391sdbernard via Reddit

    Some prominent names are missing from this list – like Julio Jones or Megatron – but, clearly, Jerry's performance stands apart from other legends of the game.  For context, Julio Jones only had 61 TDs, which is relatively low on this chart, but averages 92 yards per game … which is so high that he'd be off the chart. 

    Wayne Gretzky

    GoalsAssistsvia NumberHound

    Wayne Gretzky is a sports legend, but this chart really puts it in perspective.  Leader by a large margin in both assists and goals.  He also has one of my favorite quotes –

    “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.”

    Here's another interesting Wayne Gretzky stat: 

    Together, Wayne and Brent hold the NHL record for most combined points by two brothers – 2,857 for Wayne and 4 for Brent,[2] and are second overall in points scored by any number of brothers (behind the six brothers of the Sutter family who combined for 2,934 NHL points – 73 more than Wayne and Brent, although the Gretzkys' combined totals are greater than any five of the six Sutters.) – Wikipedia on Brent Gretzky

    Serena Williams 

    Chart_shows_just_how_much-82a81387685f09e2c50777f1027c79ebvia Yahoo!Sports

    What about Nature versus Nurture?

    Genetics and upbringing might play a part in greatness.  There are several great sibling combos like the Gretzkys, the Mannings, and the Williams sisters. 

    Both Venus and Serena are dominant athletes, but Serena is in the running for one of the most dominant athletes in any sport. 

    Have you seen any other crazy stats like these?  I'd love to see them. 

  • Don’t Touch That Dial

    History may not repeat itself exactly … but it often rhymes. News stories, however, seem to replicate.

    There is nothing wrong with your television. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are now controlling the transmission. We control the horizontal and the vertical. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive. – The Outer Limits (1963)

     

    via YouTube

    It almost feels like an episode of Black Mirror, watching these stations quote the same pre-determined diatribe on fake news and its danger to our democracy.

    The very message they are purportedly supporting, in the video above, directly contradicts their actions. 

    Most people realize this happens to some degree, but it seems different when presented like this.

    I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

    Meanwhile, Sinclar Broadcast Group owns nearly 200 stations in 80 different markets and wants to buy more. That is a powerful platform to deliver mass messages and influence the zeitgeist of its audience.

    It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

    The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

    We see and hear it every day about politics, wars, economic issues, and many other things we don't focus on enough to notice.

    As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens. Especially with the growth of deepfakes. 

    What do you think about this?