Capitalogix

Market Commentary as of February 22nd, 2008

Market Commentary Most major US equity indices are in a "triangle" consolidation pattern (like the one shown in the chart below). I view this as constructive, even if it results in lower prices short-term. The bear-swing down, from late December through January, had a lot of momentum. The consolidation worked-off a lot of that. Consequently, another move down would result in many positive divergences - and would likely be strong support for the next rally.

Choppiness increased as we moved further to the point of the "triangle" shown above. It makes sense, doesn't it? The upper and lower boundaries for market swing is getting smaller (both in size and in time). The result is choppiness - or volatility that we've seen recently.

Think of this as a well-contested battle between the bulls and the bears. Neither side has given-up much ground, yet. Soon, though, one side will have had enough and the market will surge again.

Every once in awhile I feel the need to remind people that regardless of my personal opinion, we rely on the mechanical trading models to determine our market posture. And that my comments are intended for information and context.

Finding Your Center

Managing stress and controlling mental states are important components of being successful personally and in business. I know that I operate and respond better when I am in flow, or "in-the-zone." So, I value tools and techniques that help me get there.

One of these tools is called Holosync. It is still incredibly useful to me, even though I've been using it for over five years.

It induces relaxation and meditative states without any effort or technical know-how. Simply put on the headphones and listen to seemingly normal music. The sounds are specially encoded to do all the work.

The basic premise is that sound waves can affect brain waves.

Bill Harris has built a business around figuring out the brain wave patterns for meditation, creativity, compassion, etc. - and finding a way to send tones through headphones to help guide your brain waves into the chosen pattern.

It is a very pleasant experience. Bill was a musician and has made sure that the scientific stuff is well-hidden beneath, nicely arranged musical scores and relaxation sounds.

My heart rate calms down, my head clears, and In a few minutes I'm in a measurably better state. How do I know? Because I have a biofeedback device that measures my pulse, heart rate, galvanic skin response, and other readings to help me learn to relax better.

I have tried various breathing and focus techniques, with varying degrees of success. However, without fail, I simply put on the headphones, and I relax.

Not just me, though, either. I've demonstrated this to skeptical children, friends, and even my wife. All of them experience the same thing. We hook them up to the biofeedback machine, we put the headphones on them, and they relax.

I use it several times a week, and almost every time I travel. I find myself using Holosync mostly at night. However, our portfolio manager uses it at the beginning of the day. He claims that it helps him concentrate and it puts him a better state to do his job.

You be the judge, though. Bill has a free trial at his website. Here is the link. All in all, this is certainly a technology worth investigating.

What follows is from a promotional piece for Holosync. Normally I wouldn't include this type of information. However, I use the product and agree with the message.

-HMG

_________________________________

OK, I admit it... I'm amazed!

I know from personal experience how beneficial and effective the Centerpointe Holosync® program has been in my life. And I know how valuable it's been to many of my closest friends and associates...

As you know, our passion here is to make available to people just like you--the best and most effective ways to...

• Dramatically improve your mental, emotional, and spiritual health...
• Help you create real and constant happiness in your life, regardless of your past or present circumstances...
• Improve your creativity, intelligence, and mental functioning...
• Significantly improve your overall sense of well-being and inner peace...
• Help you create your own success in the world, along with the personal satisfaction and sense of fulfillment that comes with being successful.

Well, judging from the mail I've received about Centerpointe's, The Holosync Solution™, we've obviously hit the nail on the head.

I've actually recommended this program many times over the past several years, and I've always been impressed by the positive comments I've received from so many people who have used it.

The common thread running through most of these comments is that Centerpointe's Holosync audio technology really does create the benefits mentioned above.

I'll tell you a few brief points about the program in a moment, but you really need to go to Centerpointe's website.

Now, here's just a "taste" of what The Holosync Solution can do for you...

1. It can allow you to effortlessly reach states of deep meditation--even the very first time you use it...
2. It can dramatically accelerate your mental, emotional, and spiritual growth, giving you the results you always THOUGHT you were supposed to get from meditation (but, if you're like most people, never really got)...
3. It can dramatically raise your threshold for stress and cause stress-induced dysfunctional feelings and behaviors (including anger, depression, fear, anxiety, substance abuse, and many others) to fall away … and
4. It can increase your self-awareness, inner peace, and happiness, as well as your ability to connect with other people and create successful relationships.

If you've tried meditation, or some of those other personal growth approaches that just didn't deliver, or just want to go MUCH deeper, with faster results... or if you just want to grow and improve your life at an accelerated pace, I know you'll love The Holosync Solution.

Look. I don't recommend things to my friends and clients lightly. But I'd be doing you a disservice if I didn't share this with you. There's no risk to check it out, and I know you'll be glad you did.

Are You a Dictator?

Inertia is tough.  There is often no barrier too small to halt progress. 

• After a meeting, do your notes get into your computer?
• Do you send the follow-up correspondence you thought about and know you should? 
• When you think of something that you need to do - do you capture the idea and add it to your list?
• Do you regularly store your thoughts, plans and insights (even when they occur at odd times)?

For me, sitting down to write or type has been the biggest barrier to action.  Now, rather than type, I use two great transcription services: Jott and CopyTalk.

Jott is free; and currently offers unlimited 30 second transcriptions.  This is perfect for To-Do list items or one-thought notes to yourself or others.

It turns out that I often want a longer talk time.  CopyTalk offers unlimited 4-minute transcriptions.  Perfect for letters, memos, journaling, etc.  Obviously it is a great business productivity tool; yet, I also use it as an always available electronic journal.

CopyTalk is now a speed dial on my phone – and using caller ID – it knows it is me … so I just start dictating.  I get the text in my e-mail typically within the hour. 

Here is a picture of CopyTalk's web interface for their phone dictation transcription service. 

Very convenient, and I like it a lot!

I use Microsoft's OneNote as my content management tool.  So when I get back a dictation from the service, I choose to categorize it either as something to go in my weekly commentary, an item for this blog, a personal journal item, or correspondence.

I found that I do best when I dictate right after a meeting.  However, I also found it very helpful to schedule time to dictate every day.  Sometimes I get a great nugget, right in the middle of a whole bunch of (pardon the French) crap.  Nonetheless, for me, dictating has been a good habit and a good muscle to develop.

Of course I see myself as a benevolent dictator.

If you have questions about CopyTalk call Chris Clayton at (866) 267-9825 ext 406.  Please let Chris know that I referred you.

My Exercise Experience

I just finished a physical for an insurance policy. My blood pressure was 120/80. My resting pulse was 68 and my weight has been coming down. Combine that with a good week in the market and the new portfolios, and I was feeling pretty good about myself.

So, I went to the gym to work-out with a personal trainer and my 15-year-old son, Zachary.  At the beginning of the session, I was lifting weights, feeling good, looking in the mirror and thinking "won't be long until I'm in my skinny pants." Skip forward twenty minutes into the session; my cheeks were bright red, I was huffing and puffing, and I was wondering how my son was doing so much more than I did. Ten more minutes and I was on my butt, gasping. To paraphrase a country song, “I may not be as good as I once was; but I'm as good, once, as I ever was.” Now I know what they are talking about.

Sometimes it is better not to wait too long before fixing things.

080215 Market Commentary

The Markets may still have some room to downside. Basic chart reading says it is bearish when the 200 day moving average is higher than the 50, which in turn is higher than the 20. That is math-speak for "we are in a bearish down-swing." The S&P closed at its 20-day moving average.

 

 

Notice also that the NASDAQ/S&P 500 ratio (the indicator below the main chart, shown above) has been falling since early November. That line would have to start rising for the Nasdaq to begin to show some market leadership. Right now, it's still leading to the downside.

However, the NASDAQ is approaching its rising three-year trendline, so we could see a bottom soon.

This chart is from www.theinformedtrader.com.  

When Getting In Is the Hardest Part

The Wharton business school has what may be the most sophisticated, confusing, and effective, course-registration system ever devised (it is an auction). I don’t know how it is relevant; yet,  I thought it was interesting and worth sharing.  You can click the link to read more.  

First Post

This is the first post in this blog.  I'm excited to start using this area to share opinions, ideas and musings about trading and the tools I use.  This means that there will be postings on:

• The Market, including some commentary and charts;
• Ideas on Portfolio Construction and Risk Management; as well as
• Reviews of books, courses, software, web services, other blogs, and gadgets.

This will be about a lot more than the business of trading.