Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Enter The Hivemind

    It can be hard to visualize AI.

    You might imagine something based on pop culture references of virtual lifeforms with sentience and free will … but, at least for now, that's far from the truth.

    Here's an infographic debunking 8 common AI myths.

    Modern AI does many things and has many applications, but it's still relatively primitive. It works in the background, silently collecting vast amounts of data, and performs increasing amounts of work.

    AI may not currently compare with the Star Trek character Data, yet it already is transforming our economy at warp speed.  For a recent example, McDonald's is now doing a 10-store pilot replacing their human drive-thru attendants with AI. 

    Some current uses of AI and robotics are genuinely impressive.  Here's a video taking you into "The Hive" a supermarket warehouse run by a "Hivemind" AI. With thousands of "bots" and various other forms of AI and technology, this will give you a glimpse of the future of AI and automation. 

    via Tom Scott

    This system is from Ocado in the UK. If you want more info, here is an article from Forbes about it.

    Pretty cool! 

  • An Insider’s Look at Markets

    Just because we perceive something, doesn't mean it's true.

    Ten people can witness an accident, and all perceive different things. 

    Often, our eyes see, and our ears hear, just what we expect them to see or hear.

    And with news, rumors, and urban myths, it is important to remember that just because many people say something – it doesn't mean it's true either.

    Confirmation bias is dangerous whether we are looking for a reason to do something or not do something.  Likewise, confirmation bias is dangerous whether you are looking to buy or sell. 

    The truth is that humans can make things up … but we also can notice things and infer meanings that aren't there. Sometimes we also assume cause when coincidence is more likely.

    I suppose there was an evolutionary benefit to our ancestors who were able to infer danger before it ate them. Nowadays, it's probably better if we temper those instincts a little.

    Why Do We See Patterns In Random Data?

    The human mind is especially good at finding patterns in data. 

    Often, I believe that I can see a pattern in random data.  OK, I understand that I don't really see patterns in random data; but to me, it seems like there are patterns in the random data. 

    This happens because we don't look at data neutrally.  That means when the human eye scans a chart, not all data points get equal weight.  Instead, we tend to focus on outstanding cases, and we tend to form our opinions on the basis of these special cases. 

    In other words, it is human nature to pick up the stunning successes (or failures) of the method and to overlook the more common performances. It's one of the reasons that I moved from marking up charts myself, to using computers, to leveraging a team of data scientists and advanced A.I. 

    Human fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes make it hard for humans to understand or predict markets. 

    Understanding Markets

    In reality, there is no such thing as a "Market" … It is really just a collection of separate traders – and only some are human.

    One of the reasons that markets experience great volatility is that different groups buy or sell for different reasons at different times.

    Consequently, even if one group trades using a consistent set of rules, a strategy that effectively combats it only works until that group stops trading those rules.

    And though there are "patterns" in trading, they're essentially random to you or me. Because they can happen in different time frames, or scales, or orders. 

    I shot a video that goes into more detail.

     

    Conclusion

    In trading, predicting markets is much different than using math and statistics to measure the performance of a technique (or a library of techniques). If markets are random, why waste even a minute trying to predict random. Instead, figure out something valuable that you can predict or know.

    While I often believe I see patterns in markets, I know better than to make trading decisions off of those perceptions. 

    The amount of traders is growing, the diversity of traders is growing, and the speed at which trades are made is growing. As a result, there's more confusion, more volatility, and more noise. 

    It's all about finding the signal from the noise, and making finer distinctions – because if you don't know what your edge is, you don't have one. 

    Hope that helps. 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – July 5th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     
     

     

    Trading Links:

     
     

  • Happy 4th Of July

    Hope you had a happy 4th of July – grilled out, saw some fireworks.

    Here's a video of Robin Williams reminding us that it's never a bad time to feel patriotism.

     

     

    And here's a picture of my brother-in-law Eran representing the U.S. well. 

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    I enjoyed the long weekend, hope you did too.  Now on to the second half of the year!

  • The First Website And The Spread of The World Wide Web

    When people think about CERN, they generally think about nuclear research, the Large Hadron Collider, and other physics research. 

    But, CERN was also where Tim Berners-Lee invented the World Wide Web. In March of 1989, he published “Information Management: A Proposal” which outlined his vision for what would soon become the World Wide Web.  CERN also had the first website to ever exist. Luckily, they kept the site up and will let you view it in the old school line mode.  

     

    Screen Shot 2021-06-21 at 10.36.26 AMvia CERN

    It's been 32 years since the release of the World Wide Web (the internet is said to be invented 6 years earlier with the invention of TCP/IP). Think how much that one invention has had on the world. 

    Information Gathering 

    I remember being in law school, going to the library and scanning through microfiche (or actual books) to study or do research.

    I remember reading encyclopedias (and photocopying relevant articles). 

    I remember paying for newsletters that were mailed to me (or paying extra for fax delivery).

    Having access to more data or faster delivery was a huge advantage.

    Today, you have all the information you could ever ask for at the tip of your fingers … Google and Wikipedia are just the tip of the iceberg.

    There is almost too much information now.  It is hard to separate the signal from the noise.  It seems like anyone can find justification for almost anything.  The result is lots of data, but too little knowledge.

    Part of what is needed is a way to help people make better decisions about what to trust, what it means, and what to use.

    Social Interaction

    People record every moment, every intimate detail of their lives online, contrasted by a fear of strangers and letting children roam. 

    While riding around the neighborhood on your bike to see if your friends could come out to play is by no means outlawed – it does seem passé. 

    Chat rooms, Facebook, Online multi-player … many people's key friendships are born and kept online. 

    I remember my son, 13 years old at the time, sending 10,000+ texts a month and thinking it was a phase. I was wrong. 

    The internet has radically changed the structure of relationships – for better, or often worse. 

    Privacy ( … or the lack of it)

    One of the biggest changes is that we as individuals have become productized. We take advantage of all these free resources at the cost of being pixeled and cookied into oblivion. We've chosen convenience over safety. 

    Remember, if you’re not paying for a product – you are the product.

    Little bits of our private information, demographics, and psychographics are sold to advertisers to create smarter ads, new offers, and realistically we have very little control over that.

    It’s been proven time and time again that these giants like Google and Facebook will find ways to sneak your data to advertisers even when it’s “illegal” with a slap on the wrist.

    Data protection is a massive issue not only for corporations but for individuals. While many companies are trying to manage your privacy while still monetizing your data, there are just as many companies who couldn’t care less.

    The GPDR - while frustrating for many – is a step towards protecting individuals.

    Every action has a reaction, and every benefit has a cost. The internet is an amazing tool – but it can also be a weapon. 

     

    What will the next 30 years of the internet hold?

    "The Internet will disappear. There will be so many IP addresses, so many devices, sensors, things that you are wearing, things that you are interacting with, that you won't even sense it. It will be part of your presence all the time. Imagine you walk into a room, and the room is dynamic. And with your permission and all of that, you are interacting with the things going on in the room." — Eric Schmidt

     

    It has been 30 years since its inception, and there's still radical growth coming. 

    We’ve gone from bit speeds to megabyte speeds. We’ve gone from crappy-quality video taking hours to download to streaming HD quality video live.

    How do imagine that the internet will evolve?

    What influence do you think the Internet of Things will have?

    It’s hard to foresee how innovation and regulation will change the internet, but it’s clear there will be change.

    We live in exciting times!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 27th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • A New Experience For Me

    We had Nick Nanton and his crew in our office, recently, to film for a documentary on 'Getting to Next' – How AI is transforming the world and humanizing technology. 

     

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    Nick has been involved with many cool projects from a documentary on Peter Diamandis to Operation Underground Railroad (and more). He's also won more than 20 Emmys. 

    Nick is also working on a documentary with Chris Voss – who wrote Never Split the Difference. I spent time in D.C. watching Nick shoot with Chris and his son Brandon Voss, who is the president of Black Swan Group. 

    While I've done podcasts and interviews before, this was a surprisingly fun and cool experience for me.

    It was also interesting to watch some of our more introverted data scientists in front of the camera. 

    The documentary just started shooting – but I look forward to showing you the finished product when it's ready. 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 20th, 2021

    On Father's Day I thought I'd go with some bad humor … I mean dad humor. 

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Inflation and Other Economic Effects: Will They Last?

    I've recently posted about the rise in global & national debt and the increasing dissonance between markets and the economy. This post is about inflation and the long-term economic effects of 2020. 

    We're currently operating on $6 trillion of stimulus. The Trump administration approved the first 4 trillion dollars, and Biden's administration added another $1.9 trillion. Around $3.5 trillion of that went to purchasing government securities. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury also printed another $2B in dollars (more than they produce in a normal year).

    Here is an infographic showing the programs enacted to counteract the pandemic's economic impact.

     

    2021-total-coronavirus-legislation-graphicvia PGPF (3/15/21)

    These strategies make credit easier to get by growing the money supply and lowering interest rates with banks having more reserves. Without these and the Fed's other emergency measures, the economy likely would have crashed … but was it a "fix" … or did it just delay the inevitable?

    In the short term, the stimuli did a pretty good job of creating liquidity, preventing a substantial market crash, and increasing faith in the system. 

    Markets became more erratic and harder to predict. And other ripples are starting to show in the economy. 

    Inflation: Temporary?

    It's not hard to tell that prices have risen recently. But, while consumer prices have risen 2%, on average, investors continue to invest in treasuries and push the price of 10-year yields down to where they were in February of last year. That seems to imply that despite inflation and stimulus, investors still have faith in the Fed. 

    The hope would then be that the inflation is transitory and not a long-term effect of the stimulus. 

    Screen Shot 2021-06-18 at 3.18.22 PMvia Wall Street Journal

    It's possible that this inflation is the result of a post-Covid demand surge (and not the beginning of a larger trend).  You can also assume that the surge in prices of airfares, hotels, and sports games will drop once they become "normal" again. And, even if they don't, if wages don't rise with that new demand, it's easy to picture demand returning to normal. 

    The last time the Fed created money on a similar scale (the Great Recession), high long-term inflation didn't materialize, so it might not happen again. 

    Conclusion

    I think it's unlikely that we see another 1970s style surge – and I think it's equally unlikely we see major deflation. With that said, I still don't think we've seen the end of the effects of the pandemic and the pandemic stimulus either. 

    One of the practical results of the Fed's bond purchases is that it creates money to finance the gigantic debt run up by Congress. With the national debt at almost $25 Trillion, it gets harder to pick a measuring rod of financial health that isn't woefully inefficient. The idea of "sound money" or a sustainable fiscal path seems increasingly questionable. But, if you believe in Modern Monetary Theory and in the United States' amazing ability to borrow, it's possible that there truly is no worry. Japan is a potential example of that – with a debt-to-GDP ratio of double the U.S.

    So, even if inflation continues, it's hard to judge how bad a sign it is. 

    Whether or not there's a crash tomorrow (or 7 years from now), at some point, we know there will be a "correction."

    Predicting the future is hard!

    Curious to hear what you think.

  • I’m Going to Be a Grandpa

    Happy Father's Day!

    Both of my children are adults now. It's strange to consider them fully-functioning autonomous adults – because I remember their childhood like it was yesterday (like worrying whether the soft spot on their heads would ever fill in and harden up, or if they'd ever stop sleeping with a nightlight). 

    Today, they're men doing great things … and I get to watch and be proud of them.  I also get to be proud of my role in their growth and proud of passing down the wisdom of my dad, and his father, and the rest who came before me.

    I also get to be excited because my oldest is about to have a child. Meaning the chain of education continues, and the wisdom of each generation builds upon and becomes greater than the last. 

    6a00e5502e47b288330263e951d107200b-600wiThree Generations of Getsons

    As I come to grips with becoming a grandpa, I think about my children's grandpa – my father.

    It has been over 20 years since my father died … Crazy how time flies! He was my best friend and an amazing mentor. His vision for what I could become helped shape and inform my goals, my accomplishments, and yes, me.

    For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, my dad came down from the stands onto the field.  He hugged me and told me that he knew I could do it. Then, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was a little disappointed?  "Disappointed?" I asked. "But, Dad, I won."  He looked at me and said, "Winning is great … but you didn't throw a personal best."   He was proud, and he loved me.   He recognized that winning was important … but he wanted to remind me that the other throwers weren't my real competition.  

    In life, to be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself; and we both knew I could do better.

    My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He taught me that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted or complacent.

    One of his favorite sayings was, "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things. For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them. 

    As time goes on, I recognize how much of my Dad is in me. And, likewise, how much his father was a part of him … and how parts of all of us have somehow become a part of my children. 

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    Many of the lessons he taught me became the lessons I taught my children – and my company. It's easy to focus on the big stories and the big lessons – but as I look back and consider what had the biggest impact, it was what happened in between … It was his incredibly consistent and unconditional love and his focus on what was possible.

    The standards I hold people to are high, and it can be tough for them to meet those standards.  Hopefully, they understand that it's because I love them (as my dad loved me) and that I see the greatness in them and available to them.

    I like to think each generation becomes better (as people and parents) due to the cumulative experience of the generations that came before them. 

    We stand on the shoulders of giants. 

    I look forward to seeing how my grandchildren turn out, and how little pieces of me and their great-grandfather show up. 

    Hope you had a great Father's Day weekend.