Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Lincoln: The Entrepreneurial President

    A few months ago, I brought my cousin Matt Pinsker, an expert in civil war history and Abraham Lincoln, to talk to an exclusive mastermind. He did an outstanding job of relating Lincoln's letters and history to the entrepreneurial mindset. 

    It was a hit. 

    So, I'm excited that I also convinced him to do a podcast with me, Dan Sullivan, and Steven Krein on the ultimate entrepreneurial president. Steven Krein is also my cousin, so it was a family affair. 

    We talk about revolutions, technology, future-orientation, and more. It's a great episode, and worth listening to for entrepreneurs, history buffs, and anyone looking to thrive in a changing world. 

    Hope you enjoy it. 

  • The Unicorns of 2021

    In 2020, I shared a list of the highest-valued startups in the world – they're colloquially called Unicorns.

    A unicorn startup is a private company with a valuation of over $1 billion. When I last wrote about unicorns, there were over 400. Now there are over 800 unicorns. Variants include a decacorn, valued at over $10 billion, and, soon, a hectocorn, valued at over $100 billion. 

    With that, let's see how they changed in 2021. Click the image to see it in full size. 

     

    Biggest-Startups-Top-Unicorns-of-2021-Main via visual capitalist

    There has been a surprising amount of change since last year. Perhaps, not as surprising, AirBnB got kicked off the list. 

    Another significant shift occurred in the distribution of unicorns by country. In 2020, China and the U.S. both had four names on the list – though China had the two biggest. China still has the biggest Unicorn – Bytedance – now worth double what it was, but only has one name on the list. The U.S. now has five names on the list with SpaceX, Stripe, Instacart, Databricks, and Epic Games. 

    For a few more interesting facts about the list: 

    • 77% of unicorns valued at over $10B are tech-related; the most unicorns are in Fintech
    • Many of the "non-tech" companies are really tech companies at their core
    • The U.S. and China accounted for over 70% of the top 35 startups.

    Interesting stuff. Any companies you think will breakthrough in 2022?

  • The Most Terrifying Infographic of 2022

    As we enter the new year, it feels appropriate to focus a little on our mortality. What better time for an existential crisis? 

    Below is an infographic that shows events in the life of a typical American. However, you can personalize it to display how long you likely have to live by filling in your education level, sex, country of birth, and when you were born. Seeing where you are … versus how many dots are left can be jarring.

     

    220103 Life of a Typical American

    via Coruscant Consulting

    Looking at the chart done with my information reminded me how important it is to make the most of the time I have left. 

    Time is funny. Sometimes it seems to fly by … and other times, it almost seems to stand still.

    Everyone has the same 24 hours each day. Some use it better than others. 

    Sometimes we are conscious of how we use this precious resource. Sometimes it gets away from us.

    Here is a video that illustrates how most of us spend our time. It is called The Time You Have (In JellyBeans).

     

    zefrank via YouTube

    The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

    How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?

    What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or to miss an important event because "life happens". But, if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person … doesn't it become more special?

    In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" – and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life. 

    That is an example, but I want to take it one step further. 

    To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

    • Hitting flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
    • Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
    • Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say – Wow!
    • Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
    • Experiencing peace and relaxation;
    • Feeling pure joy.

    It's easy to get lost and take for granted these moments when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left, they take a whole new meaning. 

    How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

    To start, think about different time frames:

    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

    Make those lists … it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

    Seriously, try it.  

    Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose.

    Onwards!

  • Getting Ready For The New Year

    I love planning for the new year – both personally and professionally. 

    I've always been a big picture person – so I tend to think in 5, 10, 25-year increments … but thinking about the coming year is helpful too.

    I think about it a bit like using a map.  Even if you know your intended destination, you still have to start with 'where you are' in order to figure out the best way to get there.

    There are seemingly infinite potential paths … but motion in a direction isn't really "progress" if it doesn't take you towards your desired destination.

    As we reach the final week of 2021, I thought I'd revisit how I set New Year's resolutions. 

     

    Future

     

    To start with, resolutions only work if you actually "want" to make them happen. It's one thing to hope that something magically falls in your lap; it's another to want to put in the work. 

    With that being said, here are some tips. 

    • Focus on What You Want.
    • Focus on Why You Want It.
    • Focus on Ways You Might Get it.
    • Focus on Evidence of Progress.

    Below, I'll take you through an example of each of the four steps.

    Moving Towards a Solution, Rather Than Suffering From the Problem.

    Before I got back into my health, my first instinct was to think, "I need to lose weight."  Knowing that "you're fat" isn't helpful … my head quickly translates that to something a tad more positive, yet generic, like: "I choose to be healthy and vital, and to live a healthy lifestyle."

    Blah, blah … They are just words.  What I needed was something specific, measurable, and actionable.  How about: "I will lose 15 pounds and stop eating after dinner."  OK, but that isn't inspiring, and there isn't much for me to do. I can do better than that.

    Figure-Out a Big Enough WHY, Rather Than Worrying about the HOW's.

    This post isn't about health and fitness; it is about the mindset and techniques you can use to set empowering goals and plans in any situation.

    So, while I could list many ways to lose weight (and I might even remember to do some of them), leveraging a driving force creates momentum.  In other words, the first step in "Doing" is knowing WHY you want something.

    I really do want to be healthy, fit, and vital (it sure beats the alternatives), and I want to have the energy and confidence to live and enjoy my life fully.  The world is my playground, and I want to take advantage of more opportunities to play with family and friends.  However, to do those things, I must find better ways to live a healthy lifestyle.

    The WHYs are just as important for business goals too.

    Focus on Potential Solutions, Rather than Problems or Challenges.

    Obstacles Exist. The bad news: I don't eat fish, and I don't like vegetables (unless French Fries are vegetables).  My joints aren't close to healthy from years of violent contact sports. I rarely get 7 hours of sleep, and who'd have thunk it, but being a CEO of a startup is stressful.  The good news: is none of those things matter; and even if they did, it just would mean that I have a lot of room for progress.

    It is natural to focus on obstacles. But most obstacles are surmountable – with a big enough WHY, even I'll start to eat vegetables. Instead of dwelling on the limitations, use them as a reminder to focus on potential solutions instead. They are beacons, pointing the way.

    How do you do it?  To focus on solutions, you can make two action-based lists: one is of things To-Do … and another is of things Not-To-Do.

    Here are some of the sample To-Do Items:

    • I will drink more water than coffee.
    • I will stretch, or do basic calisthenics, on days that I do not go to the gym.
    • I will make a healthy shake as a meal replacement rather than a snack of min-meal.
    • I will focus on relaxation and meditation as much as I focus on strength & physical exercises.

    Here is the actionable list of Not-To-Do Items.

    • I will not buy new bigger pants or wear stretchy pants because of an expanding waistline.
    • I will not eat snacks out of their container – and will portion out what I want first.
    • I will not compare my current level of fitness to what I used to be able to do. Instead, I will focus on my actions and improvement.

    Create Healthier Habits.

    It is easy to follow a routine.  So, here's another tip … make your routine better.  Here are some examples of things you could do to make being healthier happen with less effort.

    • Pre-sort your vitamins into daily doses, and keep them by the coffee machine.
    • Buy healthy snacks, like fruit, raw nuts, or organic energy bars (instead of chips).
    • Enjoy listening to music or listening to a book/podcast during your "exercise time." Dedicating time to something doesn't mean you can't be multitasking.
    • Park at the end of the parking lot, so you get to walk.
    • Meet with friends at the gym or a hiking spot rather than a bar or restaurant.

    You get the idea.  Get in the habit of looking for ways to create better habits.  What habits could you alter slightly to make a big difference?  Which things can you automate or outsource?

    For two books about the subject, I recommend Tiny Habits by B.J. Fogg and Willpower Doesn't Work by Benjamin Hardy. 

    Focus on Your Progress.

    In this case, it really is about the journey.  Instead of keeping track of how far you have to go … notice how far you've come. Utilize an internal locus of control. It is about creating energy, momentum, and a sense of possibility.  You may have a big, hairy, audacious goal in mind.  That's fine, as long as you realize that reaching each milestone along the way is still an accomplishment.

    • Find shoes that don't hurt your feet.
    • Pick a gym or a personal trainer that you enjoy.
    • Run more than two laps without stopping.

    It doesn't matter what they are … they all count, as long as you know that you are moving in the right direction.

    Summary

    The point of this exercise was not really to focus on fitness. These techniques and goal-setting tools work in any situation. The principles are:

    1. First, figure out what you want and why it is important to you. Only focus on the few things that are actually important to you. 
    2. Second, find something you can do, right now, which moves you in the right direction.
    3. Third, notice which things create (rather than take) energy. Spend your time on those, and automate or create routines to take care of the rest.
    4. Fourth, plan forward, but measure backward. Set milestones so that you can recognize and celebrate your progress.

    In my business, this translates to having a mission and vision – it's what we want, why it's important to us, and a basic strategy to get there. Then we create yearly "Big 3" goals that move us toward that long-term vision. Then, the team creates SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely) and KPIs (key performance indicators) so they know where to spend their time, and what milestones tell them they're on the right track.

    It isn't magic, but it works.

    Hope this helped.

  • Visualizing Global GDP in 2021

    There are numerous ways to look at or measure the global economy (including trade blocsbig industry movers, or debt). Another way to get a global overview is to compare GDP.

    When trading was slower and more deeply tied to an investor mindset, economics played a more significant role in fundamental analysis. As the holding period (or "time in trade") shrinks, there is less focus on predicting markets over the long term … and more on determining which techniques are making money now.

    Even though markets are not the same as the economy, on a macro scale, many believe that it is possible to create value by understanding and the global economy better.  

    With that, take a look at the $94 trillion world economy, divided by region. 

     

    Global-GDP-by-Country-2021-V15-Mobile-1 via visualcapitalist 

    Some thoughts: 

    • Global GDP was $87 trillion in 2019 and $84 trillion in 2020. So, while COVID did negatively impact GDP initially, it has rebounded and risen again as if 2020 hadn't interrupted the trend. 
    • Since 2018, China has been slowly gaining ground on the U.S.'s lead 
    • Global GDP isn't zero-sum, so countries doing better doesn't necessarily mean other countries are doing worse 
    • The top four countries – U.S., China, Japan, and Germany – make up over half of the world's GDP. 
    • Based on GDP growth, Libya, Guyana, Macao, the Maldives, and Ireland have the world's fastest-growing economies. 

    To put these numbers in perspective, the world economy was approximately $3 trillion in 1970, and GDP is estimated to double again by 2050. 

    Crazy stuff.

  • How’d These 2021 Predictions Fair?

    I write about the future of technology often

    But, sometimes, it's fun to see what others have to say as well.

    Every year Visual Capitalist puts together a list of their predictions for the coming year. As we reach the final two weeks of 2021, I figure it's worth taking a look!

    Here was their "bingo card" for 2021.

    Prediction-consensus-2021via visualcapitalist

    Honestly, that was a pretty good set of predictions.  While some of this list didn't pan out, much of it did. We're seeing a growing exodus from major cities (where people lived to pursue opportunities previously available only in such places), movies are recovering, and hybrid work models are all the rage. 

    Could they have predicted how much of an issue COVID would pose throughout the year? Probably not. 

    As we near the end of 2021, there's a lot of uncertainty in the air.

    Global markets have the jitters – and we don't see the increased volatility changing anytime soon. 

    What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022?