Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Microsoft’s Surprising Windows 7 Promotion

    091031 Win 7 Burger King AdMicrosoft released Windows 7 last week.

    Being an early adopter, I found this exciting, challenging, and frustrating all in the same week.

    Speaking of Windows 7, I saw an interesting ad where Microsoft was promoting the launch in Japan through a cross-promotion with Burger King. Here's the ad.

    Who knew that the best way to promote a new operating system and your expected user experience was with seven congealing meat patties and the smell of onions? 

    Maybe Apple took out that ad?

    This is almost as funny as their Songsmith ads.

  • Microsoft’s Surprising Windows 7 Promotion

    091031 Win 7 Burger King AdMicrosoft released Windows 7 last week.

    Being an early adopter, I found this exciting, challenging, and frustrating all in the same week.

    Speaking of Windows 7, I saw an interesting ad where Microsoft was promoting the launch in Japan through a cross-promotion with Burger King. Here's the ad.

    Who knew that the best way to promote a new operating system and your expected user experience was with seven congealing meat patties and the smell of onions? 

    Maybe Apple took out that ad?

    This is almost as funny as their Songsmith ads.

  • Key Points from Jim Collins’ “How the Mighty Fall – And Why Some Companies Never Give In”

    0910 Verne Harnish and Jim Collins Two business thought leaders that I highly recommend are Verne Harnish and Jim Collins

    They both wrote books I love.  Verne' "Rockefeller Habits" is terrific.  And Jim's "Good to Great" and "Built to Last" are both classics.

    Recently, I heard Jim Collins talk about his new book, "How the Mighty Fall – And Why Some Companies Never Give In". It's a quick read makes a lot of sense.

    Before I talk about the book, here are three things he said that caught my attention. Even out of context they are worth repeating:

    1. It's better to be interested, than to be interesting.
    2. Don't worry about survival or success; instead, wrestle with how to be useful.
    3. Great leaders don't always know the answers … they are, however, great at knowing great questions.

    The Point of the Book: Keep-Up the Disciplines that Make You Great.

    One of the key points was to be terrified of your success. Not because success is bad, in-and-of-itself. Rather, because success often takes you away from the disciplines of building greatness.

    The difference between good and great is often a culture of discipline and a focus on having the right people filling the key seats in the company.

    It is One Thing to Have the Right People On the Bus … How Well Are Your "Key Seats" Filled?

    How many "Key Seats" are there in your company? Perhaps more importantly, ask yourself what percent of these Key Seats do you have empirical proof, and confidence, that the right people are already in-place, doing the right job? Then, ask yourself whether the percentage is increasing, decreasing, or holding steady? 

    If this is important to your company … what are you going to do about it?  And how often are you going to focus on this?

    Most Companies Measure and Manage the Wrong Things.

    Another point he stressed was that what gets measured, gets managed. However, one of the disciplines of greatness is to get beyond measuring what's easy, to define what needs measurement and management. Recognizing the key performance indicators in the key measures of success go a long way towards moving in the right direction, together, as a company.

    Agree to A Committed Action.

    He reminds that great companies are not without disagreement. Instead, they use it as a catalyst to see issues from different perspectives, to get tough conversations out into the open, and then commit to a course of action. Not everyone has to agree with the course of action; yet, everyone should have clarity about what they are agreeing to and what course of action will be.

    "How the Mighty Fall – And Why Some Companies Never Give In"?


    One of the main points of his new book is the downturns are predictable and to some extent, inevitable; however, it doesn't have to be fatal. In fact, it can be the catalyst to the next round of growth on the path to greatness.

    He asks the question: "Why do truly great companies limit growth and set absolute minimum standards, which must be exceeded?" Here is a high-level view of the answer. 

    • It ultimately comes down to rigorous strategic thinking.
    • It means knowing what you do, and doing it well.
    • It means having an important stretch goal, and pursuing it in a disciplined manner. 
    • And it means doing all this with the right people, doing the right jobs, and great management.

    Bottom Line: Stay disciplined … and keep the Main Thing, the main thing.

  • Key Points from Jim Collins’ “How the Mighty Fall – And Why Some Companies Never Give In”

    0910 Verne Harnish and Jim Collins Two business thought leaders that I highly recommend are Verne Harnish and Jim Collins

    They both wrote books I love.  Verne' "Rockefeller Habits" is terrific.  And Jim's "Good to Great" and "Built to Last" are both classics.

    Recently, I heard Jim Collins talk about his new book, "How the Mighty Fall – And Why Some Companies Never Give In". It's a quick read makes a lot of sense.

    Before I talk about the book, here are three things he said that caught my attention. Even out of context they are worth repeating:

    1. It's better to be interested, than to be interesting.
    2. Don't worry about survival or success; instead, wrestle with how to be useful.
    3. Great leaders don't always know the answers … they are, however, great at knowing great questions.

    The Point of the Book: Keep-Up the Disciplines that Make You Great.

    One of the key points was to be terrified of your success. Not because success is bad, in-and-of-itself. Rather, because success often takes you away from the disciplines of building greatness.

    The difference between good and great is often a culture of discipline and a focus on having the right people filling the key seats in the company.

    It is One Thing to Have the Right People On the Bus … How Well Are Your "Key Seats" Filled?

    How many "Key Seats" are there in your company? Perhaps more importantly, ask yourself what percent of these Key Seats do you have empirical proof, and confidence, that the right people are already in-place, doing the right job? Then, ask yourself whether the percentage is increasing, decreasing, or holding steady? 

    If this is important to your company … what are you going to do about it?  And how often are you going to focus on this?

    Most Companies Measure and Manage the Wrong Things.

    Another point he stressed was that what gets measured, gets managed. However, one of the disciplines of greatness is to get beyond measuring what's easy, to define what needs measurement and management. Recognizing the key performance indicators in the key measures of success go a long way towards moving in the right direction, together, as a company.

    Agree to A Committed Action.

    He reminds that great companies are not without disagreement. Instead, they use it as a catalyst to see issues from different perspectives, to get tough conversations out into the open, and then commit to a course of action. Not everyone has to agree with the course of action; yet, everyone should have clarity about what they are agreeing to and what course of action will be.

    "How the Mighty Fall – And Why Some Companies Never Give In"?


    One of the main points of his new book is the downturns are predictable and to some extent, inevitable; however, it doesn't have to be fatal. In fact, it can be the catalyst to the next round of growth on the path to greatness.

    He asks the question: "Why do truly great companies limit growth and set absolute minimum standards, which must be exceeded?" Here is a high-level view of the answer. 

    • It ultimately comes down to rigorous strategic thinking.
    • It means knowing what you do, and doing it well.
    • It means having an important stretch goal, and pursuing it in a disciplined manner. 
    • And it means doing all this with the right people, doing the right jobs, and great management.

    Bottom Line: Stay disciplined … and keep the Main Thing, the main thing.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 11/01/09

    Last week it started to feel like the markets were breaking-down.   Most of the major US equity indices broke down through their 50-day moving averages and also below their up-trend lines. Likewise, the Dow is back under 10,000 again.

    The chart, below, shows that we are that an important support and resistance level that goes back to November of last year. In addition, we're back to price levels from late July. That means that we've had three months of rally, good news, and talks of "green shoots", with no real price advancement and a decrease of momentum.

    091031 Russell 2000 Index at Support

    From a technical analysis standpoint, this would be a good place to
    reverse and rally. However, longer-term charts and the sheer size of
    the recent rally suggests that we might have a little more market
    correction to go before the decline reverses.

    A Rising VIX Often Means Falling Prices.

    The CBOE Volatility Index  (better known as the "VIX") is a measure of the implied volatility of
    S&P 500 Index options, with very low numbers indicating extreme bullishness
    and very high numbers severe bearishness. It is also referred to as the “fear
    gauge” of US stock markets and is used as a contrary indicator as it moves
    inversely to equity prices. So a rising VIX often means falling prices.  As shown below, the VIX spiked to its highest level
    since early July.

    091031 Rising VIX Falling Prices

    I'm watching the VIX for clues about the direction of the next big move. If fear subsides quickly, then the rally will likely continue.  On the other hand, volatility will increase if the markets remain jumpy.

    What's GDP Got to Do with It?

    Going back to last week, Bears started jumping in on estimates that GPD would fall from 3.0% to 2.7%. Then GDP came in at 3.5%, and suddenly there were a bunch of headlines and news reports that the Recession was over.  As a result, the market blasts 2% higher in one day. My guess, that was more a result of massive short-covering, rather than actual bullish buying behavior.

    It's worth noting that the GDP number was annualized. Real GDP growth for the quarter was 0.87%.

    So far, the Stimulus spending/ Bailouts have
    cost the US more than WWI, WWII, and the New Deal combined… and we get
    GDP growth of 0.87% for Q3?    That's not a sign of a
    strong economy.

    Longer Term: How Does This Compare to Other Bear Market Rallies?

    Here is an interesting inflation-adjusted comparison of three
    Mega-Bear Markets
    . It
    aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000,
    the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

    091031 mega-bear-2000-extended

    Something to keep in mind … while history doesn't always repeat itself … it often rhymes. If so, the next big move is down.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • 2010 Economic Forecast: Don't Hold Your Breath for Fast Growth. (WP Carey)
    • U.K. GDP Numbers Worse Than Most Thought – Down about 5% this Year. (WSJ)
    • Bank Failures Hit 106 Year-to-Date -  Most Since 1992. (MarketWatch)
    • Will Retailers Top Last Year's Holiday Sales? (WSJ)
    • The Good, Bad & Exaggerated in Michael Moore's New Film 'Capitalism'. (Wharton)
    • Venture Firms Making Bets On Forex Start-Ups. (WSJ)
    • Ten Odd Economic Indicators: From Hot Waitresses to Men’s Underwear. (Time)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 11/01/09

    Last week it started to feel like the markets were breaking-down.   Most of the major US equity indices broke down through their 50-day moving averages and also below their up-trend lines. Likewise, the Dow is back under 10,000 again.

    The chart, below, shows that we are that an important support and resistance level that goes back to November of last year. In addition, we're back to price levels from late July. That means that we've had three months of rally, good news, and talks of "green shoots", with no real price advancement and a decrease of momentum.

    091031 Russell 2000 Index at Support

    From a technical analysis standpoint, this would be a good place to
    reverse and rally. However, longer-term charts and the sheer size of
    the recent rally suggests that we might have a little more market
    correction to go before the decline reverses.

    A Rising VIX Often Means Falling Prices.

    The CBOE Volatility Index  (better known as the "VIX") is a measure of the implied volatility of
    S&P 500 Index options, with very low numbers indicating extreme bullishness
    and very high numbers severe bearishness. It is also referred to as the “fear
    gauge” of US stock markets and is used as a contrary indicator as it moves
    inversely to equity prices. So a rising VIX often means falling prices.  As shown below, the VIX spiked to its highest level
    since early July.

    091031 Rising VIX Falling Prices

    I'm watching the VIX for clues about the direction of the next big move. If fear subsides quickly, then the rally will likely continue.  On the other hand, volatility will increase if the markets remain jumpy.

    What's GDP Got to Do with It?

    Going back to last week, Bears started jumping in on estimates that GPD would fall from 3.0% to 2.7%. Then GDP came in at 3.5%, and suddenly there were a bunch of headlines and news reports that the Recession was over.  As a result, the market blasts 2% higher in one day. My guess, that was more a result of massive short-covering, rather than actual bullish buying behavior.

    It's worth noting that the GDP number was annualized. Real GDP growth for the quarter was 0.87%.

    So far, the Stimulus spending/ Bailouts have
    cost the US more than WWI, WWII, and the New Deal combined… and we get
    GDP growth of 0.87% for Q3?    That's not a sign of a
    strong economy.

    Longer Term: How Does This Compare to Other Bear Market Rallies?

    Here is an interesting inflation-adjusted comparison of three
    Mega-Bear Markets
    . It
    aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000,
    the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

    091031 mega-bear-2000-extended

    Something to keep in mind … while history doesn't always repeat itself … it often rhymes. If so, the next big move is down.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • 2010 Economic Forecast: Don't Hold Your Breath for Fast Growth. (WP Carey)
    • U.K. GDP Numbers Worse Than Most Thought – Down about 5% this Year. (WSJ)
    • Bank Failures Hit 106 Year-to-Date -  Most Since 1992. (MarketWatch)
    • Will Retailers Top Last Year's Holiday Sales? (WSJ)
    • The Good, Bad & Exaggerated in Michael Moore's New Film 'Capitalism'. (Wharton)
    • Venture Firms Making Bets On Forex Start-Ups. (WSJ)
    • Ten Odd Economic Indicators: From Hot Waitresses to Men’s Underwear. (Time)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • RoboForm: the Best Password Manager and Form-Filler

    091031 RoboForm logo Here's something that I use many times, every day, and still think is a terrific piece of software.

    Besides completely automating password entry and form-filling, RoboForm it allows you to: 

    This tool will save you time and help keep you safe on an increasingly dangerous web. Here is a screenshot of the toolbar it installs in your browser.

     091031 RoboForm Screenshot

    There is no need to remember passwords anymore … and even better, it keeps track of web addresses too (like bank and credit-card sites or any site you need to enter your member credentials). Type a few letters into the RoboForm search bar, click the website it suggests, then it takes you to the appropriate address and fills in the log-in credentials, automatically. It's fast, safe, and easy.

    091031 RoboForm Awards Lots of Ways to Use It.

    RoboForm has a version that runs from a USB stick (so you can take it with you anywhere and use it without installing anything on someone else's computer). There are also versions for various smart-phones, including the iPhone. In addition, it links to their tremendous file synchronization tool, which is also worth taking a look at.

    RoboForm was named PC Magazine Editor's Choice, and CNET Download.com's Software of the Year.

    I've used this software for many years, and watched it get better and smarter. The author never tried to charge an upgrade fee, and continues to add new features and more intelligent algorithms to fill-out web forms as they continue to evolve.

    All-in-all, this is a high-quality utility worth having on your computer. Hope that helps.

  • RoboForm: the Best Password Manager and Form-Filler

    091031 RoboForm logo Here's something that I use many times, every day, and still think is a terrific piece of software.

    Besides completely automating password entry and form-filling, RoboForm it allows you to: 

    This tool will save you time and help keep you safe on an increasingly dangerous web. Here is a screenshot of the toolbar it installs in your browser.

     091031 RoboForm Screenshot

    There is no need to remember passwords anymore … and even better, it keeps track of web addresses too (like bank and credit-card sites or any site you need to enter your member credentials). Type a few letters into the RoboForm search bar, click the website it suggests, then it takes you to the appropriate address and fills in the log-in credentials, automatically. It's fast, safe, and easy.

    091031 RoboForm Awards Lots of Ways to Use It.

    RoboForm has a version that runs from a USB stick (so you can take it with you anywhere and use it without installing anything on someone else's computer). There are also versions for various smart-phones, including the iPhone. In addition, it links to their tremendous file synchronization tool, which is also worth taking a look at.

    RoboForm was named PC Magazine Editor's Choice, and CNET Download.com's Software of the Year.

    I've used this software for many years, and watched it get better and smarter. The author never tried to charge an upgrade fee, and continues to add new features and more intelligent algorithms to fill-out web forms as they continue to evolve.

    All-in-all, this is a high-quality utility worth having on your computer. Hope that helps.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 10/25/09

    Traders are starting to sell into strength.  That is something to watch.

    This Heat Map, from FinViz, shows that last Friday was a tough day in the markets.  Most everything was red.  However, Amazon was up almost 27%.  And Microsoft had a pretty good day too.  Realize that the averages would have been even weaker without those outlier performances.

     091023 SP500 Map of the Market

    But big up-moves on big down days are another sign of volatility, confusion and disagreement.  These are simply things I've learned to notice. 

    Price is still the primary indicator.  So keep an eye on the trend-line of your choice.

    Items In the Rear-View Mirror May Only Be Half as Big as They Seemed.

    Why isn't the world beating a path to our markets, driving-up prices and volume?  Perhaps because they don't see our market the same way we do. 

    This next chart caught my eye because it shows our 20% rally (since May) is less than a 10% rally, when it is measured in Euros instead of Dollars.

     091025 Rally Measured in Euros

    A similar phenomena is playing-out with Gold too.

    Venture Capital Charts are Eye-Opening … But Not Wallet-Opening.

    The third quarter was rough for VCs, with 17 firms raising just $1.6 billion. That's the fewest number of firms to raise money in 15 years; and it's the smallest amount of money raised since Q1 2003, says the National Venture Capital Association.

    How tough was it?  Venture Capital funding fell 42% through the third quarter compared with last year, and had an 81% drop quarter-to-quarter from a year ago.

     091025 VC Funds Not Raising Money

    The more I think about this, the less it worries me.  There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, and I believe that we just aren't in the stage of the cycle where late-majority money flows to speculative investments.  There is a similar situation going on in the M&A cycle too.

    When the longer-term economic recovery gets moving, so will the money.

    The Jobs Flu.

    The real virus affecting the economy is unemployment. 

    For example, Sun says it is about to cut 3,000 jobs.  Frankly, I hear chatter from a number of companies planning to reduce headcount in meaningful and painful ways.  Bottom Line: Without a clear path to more sales, the pressure to make numbers is driving further reductions.

    It seems several things are thinning the workforce.

    President Obama declared swine flu a national emergency.  Officials described the move as similar to a declaration ahead of a hurricane making landfall; though perhaps it was more a "call to action," like how they hand out Nobel Peace Prizes.

     091023 Flu or Layoff

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • What Happens When the Fed's Buying Binge Ends? (WSJ)
    • McKinsey Says Global Capital Markets Entering a New Era (McKinsey)
    • Sharp Drop in Start-Ups Bodes Ill for Jobs & Growth Outlook. (WSJ)
    • Bank of America Lost $1 Billion in Q3, & It's Now Testing Support. (NYTimes)
    • Great Chart of Google's Long Road Back To $500 (BusinessInsider)
    • Nokia Slaps Apple with Lawsuit about Wireless Patents. (Forbes)
    • Some Reasons Not to Care about Dow 10K. (CuriousCapitalist)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • A $1 Million Research Bargain for Netflix, & Maybe a Model for Others. (NYTimes)
    • Forbes Lists the 50 Most Influential Management Gurus. (Forbes)
    • Does Social Media Mark the End of the Email Era? (WSJ)
    • 54% of CIOs Forbid Use of Social Networks at Their Companies. (WallSt&Tech)
    • Gout: The Missing Chapter from Good Calories, Bad Calories. (Ferriss)
    • Study – Touch Money And You Feel Less Pain. (CreditCards)
    • Disney Offers Refunds on Baby Einstein. (TDB)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
  • Capitalogix Commentary 10/25/09

    Traders are starting to sell into strength.  That is something to watch.

    This Heat Map, from FinViz, shows that last Friday was a tough day in the markets.  Most everything was red.  However, Amazon was up almost 27%.  And Microsoft had a pretty good day too.  Realize that the averages would have been even weaker without those outlier performances.

     091023 SP500 Map of the Market

    But big up-moves on big down days are another sign of volatility, confusion and disagreement.  These are simply things I've learned to notice. 

    Price is still the primary indicator.  So keep an eye on the trend-line of your choice.

    Items In the Rear-View Mirror May Only Be Half as Big as They Seemed.

    Why isn't the world beating a path to our markets, driving-up prices and volume?  Perhaps because they don't see our market the same way we do. 

    This next chart caught my eye because it shows our 20% rally (since May) is less than a 10% rally, when it is measured in Euros instead of Dollars.

     091025 Rally Measured in Euros

    A similar phenomena is playing-out with Gold too.

    Venture Capital Charts are Eye-Opening … But Not Wallet-Opening.

    The third quarter was rough for VCs, with 17 firms raising just $1.6 billion. That's the fewest number of firms to raise money in 15 years; and it's the smallest amount of money raised since Q1 2003, says the National Venture Capital Association.

    How tough was it?  Venture Capital funding fell 42% through the third quarter compared with last year, and had an 81% drop quarter-to-quarter from a year ago.

     091025 VC Funds Not Raising Money

    The more I think about this, the less it worries me.  There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, and I believe that we just aren't in the stage of the cycle where late-majority money flows to speculative investments.  There is a similar situation going on in the M&A cycle too.

    When the longer-term economic recovery gets moving, so will the money.

    The Jobs Flu.

    The real virus affecting the economy is unemployment. 

    For example, Sun says it is about to cut 3,000 jobs.  Frankly, I hear chatter from a number of companies planning to reduce headcount in meaningful and painful ways.  Bottom Line: Without a clear path to more sales, the pressure to make numbers is driving further reductions.

    It seems several things are thinning the workforce.

    President Obama declared swine flu a national emergency.  Officials described the move as similar to a declaration ahead of a hurricane making landfall; though perhaps it was more a "call to action," like how they hand out Nobel Peace Prizes.

     091023 Flu or Layoff

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • What Happens When the Fed's Buying Binge Ends? (WSJ)
    • McKinsey Says Global Capital Markets Entering a New Era (McKinsey)
    • Sharp Drop in Start-Ups Bodes Ill for Jobs & Growth Outlook. (WSJ)
    • Bank of America Lost $1 Billion in Q3, & It's Now Testing Support. (NYTimes)
    • Great Chart of Google's Long Road Back To $500 (BusinessInsider)
    • Nokia Slaps Apple with Lawsuit about Wireless Patents. (Forbes)
    • Some Reasons Not to Care about Dow 10K. (CuriousCapitalist)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • A $1 Million Research Bargain for Netflix, & Maybe a Model for Others. (NYTimes)
    • Forbes Lists the 50 Most Influential Management Gurus. (Forbes)
    • Does Social Media Mark the End of the Email Era? (WSJ)
    • 54% of CIOs Forbid Use of Social Networks at Their Companies. (WallSt&Tech)
    • Gout: The Missing Chapter from Good Calories, Bad Calories. (Ferriss)
    • Study – Touch Money And You Feel Less Pain. (CreditCards)
    • Disney Offers Refunds on Baby Einstein. (TDB)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.