My Internet provider recently doubled the speed of service in our area. Seemingly everyone I tell makes a joke about quicker access to porn. In that spirit, here are two videos poking fun at that.
First, the Onion jokes that Congress passed the Pornographic Media Concealment Act, to hide this generation's porn habit from future generations.
The iPad is a revolutionary machine. I had a chance to spend time using one this weekend.
Overall, the experience was impressive and compelling.
The screen was beautiful. Looking at a website was
better than expected. For example, reading the New
York Times online (using their iPad App) was, in many ways, a
better experience than with the actual paper. Likewise, the e-book interface was stunning, easy
to use, and also more compelling than paper.
An Incredible "Consumption" Device.
At first glance, the iPad seems like an incredible tool to
consume media.
If you like to sit on your couch and read the paper or
magazines, the iPad will clearly make that better. Why? Because you will have
a much wider range of reading material available in one place, along
with access to multimedia, streaming video and internet links.
If
you play Sudoku or crosswords, again, the iPad will clearly
make that better. You will have access to extra games, more varieties of
games, and the ability to play against other people.
If you want to do research for something you're writing, it's the
perfect platform to browse through websites, blogs, or to launch a news reader to scan RSS
feeds.
You can even use it to watch videos and browse through pictures.
Here is a video review.
So, will I buy one? Not yet; and I do have some mixed feelings about this device.
So What Was "Wrong" With It?
To be sure, it is fast and powerful enough to do many of the things I do on a laptop.
However, I don't think that it's a great "creation" device (at least for me). In other words, I don't believe that I would want to use it to do extensive
writing, spreadsheet editing, or that type of "computer" work.
Also, its big beautiful screen makes the device "too big" for me to imagine carrying around.
One of the primary benefits of my iPhone is that I have it with me everywhere. That means I use it at the grocery store, while I'm waiting for my car at the car-wash, and to look up something during a business meeting or lunch. That wouldn't happen with the iPad.
Instead, I'd want one in my briefcase, another one in the living room, and another in the bedroom.
Again, the iPad seems designed to be a "consumption" device for media. As the price point comes down, I believe that consumers will buy several of them (much the way they have
TVs in different rooms).
Even though it so impressive and compelling, I will probably wait for its next generation before buying.
The iPad is a revolutionary machine. I had a chance to spend time using one this weekend.
Overall, the experience was impressive and compelling.
The screen was beautiful. Looking at a website was
better than expected. For example, reading the New
York Times online (using their iPad App) was, in many ways, a
better experience than with the actual paper. Likewise, the e-book interface was stunning, easy
to use, and also more compelling than paper.
An Incredible "Consumption" Device.
At first glance, the iPad seems like an incredible tool to
consume media.
If you like to sit on your couch and read the paper or
magazines, the iPad will clearly make that better. Why? Because you will have
a much wider range of reading material available in one place, along
with access to multimedia, streaming video and internet links.
If
you play Sudoku or crosswords, again, the iPad will clearly
make that better. You will have access to extra games, more varieties of
games, and the ability to play against other people.
If you want to do research for something you're writing, it's the
perfect platform to browse through websites, blogs, or to launch a news reader to scan RSS
feeds.
You can even use it to watch videos and browse through pictures.
Here is a video review.
So, will I buy one? Not yet; and I do have some mixed feelings about this device.
So What Was "Wrong" With It?
To be sure, it is fast and powerful enough to do many of the things I do on a laptop.
However, I don't think that it's a great "creation" device (at least for me). In other words, I don't believe that I would want to use it to do extensive
writing, spreadsheet editing, or that type of "computer" work.
Also, its big beautiful screen makes the device "too big" for me to imagine carrying around.
One of the primary benefits of my iPhone is that I have it with me everywhere. That means I use it at the grocery store, while I'm waiting for my car at the car-wash, and to look up something during a business meeting or lunch. That wouldn't happen with the iPad.
Instead, I'd want one in my briefcase, another one in the living room, and another in the bedroom.
Again, the iPad seems designed to be a "consumption" device for media. As the price point comes down, I believe that consumers will buy several of them (much the way they have
TVs in different rooms).
Even though it so impressive and compelling, I will probably wait for its next generation before buying.
I just got back from a weekend retreat with a group of entrepreneurs.
It consistently surprises me how valuable it is to take time to get away from your daily routines, in order to focus on the bigger picture.
Part of the benefit is simply taking the time to do it. Another part is listening to others, and hearing a fresh perspective.
Having fun helps too.
I've watched my kids play Guitar Hero and Rock Band on their gaming systems; however, it was quite a different experience watching a bunch of middle-aged children play it at the retreat.
I was particularly embarrassed that I knew so few of the songs. And when I tried participating … I reminded myself more of my father, than of a rock-star.
Yet, for what it's worth, it turned out to be a great group activity to loosen-folks-up at the retreat.
I just got back from a weekend retreat with a group of entrepreneurs.
It consistently surprises me how valuable it is to take time to get away from your daily routines, in order to focus on the bigger picture.
Part of the benefit is simply taking the time to do it. Another part is listening to others, and hearing a fresh perspective.
Having fun helps too.
I've watched my kids play Guitar Hero and Rock Band on their gaming systems; however, it was quite a different experience watching a bunch of middle-aged children play it at the retreat.
I was particularly embarrassed that I knew so few of the songs. And when I tried participating … I reminded myself more of my father, than of a rock-star.
Yet, for what it's worth, it turned out to be a great group activity to loosen-folks-up at the retreat.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded above 11,000 for the first time since 2008. The real question is whether that is a sign of continued strength or that the rally has climbed too far, too fast?
The chart, below, compares the bets made by small traders (a.k.a. the "Dumb
Money"), to those of large commercial hedgers (a.k.a. the "Smart
Money").
In practice, Confidence Index readings rarely get below
30% or above 70% (they usually stay between 40% and 60%). When they
move outside of those bands, it's time to pay attention.
Even
more noteworthy is when there is a wide confidence spread with bullish bets by the Dumb Money and bearish bets by the Smart Money. This type of
sentiment
spread only happens a few times a year. We
often get substantial bullish reversals when that happens.
Conventional trading wisdom says that Crowds are
usually wrong at turning-points. That doesn't mean they are wrong all
the time (yet I take special notice when the Smart Money clearly disagrees).
Consumer Credit Woes Adding Fuel to the Doubt Fires.
Here is a chart from BusinessInsider showing the Fed's latest consumer credit reading. After starting to recover, total outstanding consumer credit had a massive month-over-month decline.
It is tough to stage a lasting recovery without consumers.
So Where Is the Money Coming From?
U.S. Federal debt has increased rapidly.
In a related chart, Doug Short created an
inflation-adjusted view of the debt and an overlay of the tax brackets. With the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts expiring this year, the question is whether the gross
federal debt will be a factor in determining the direction of future tax
rates? Perhaps, like a young household with good jobs buying a home, the
US can afford the rising level of debt? What do you think?
Speaking of Debt-Laden Countries.
European governments on Sunday offered debt-laden Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates as they try to end Greece's fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded above 11,000 for the first time since 2008. The real question is whether that is a sign of continued strength or that the rally has climbed too far, too fast?
The chart, below, compares the bets made by small traders (a.k.a. the "Dumb
Money"), to those of large commercial hedgers (a.k.a. the "Smart
Money").
In practice, Confidence Index readings rarely get below
30% or above 70% (they usually stay between 40% and 60%). When they
move outside of those bands, it's time to pay attention.
Even
more noteworthy is when there is a wide confidence spread with bullish bets by the Dumb Money and bearish bets by the Smart Money. This type of
sentiment
spread only happens a few times a year. We
often get substantial bullish reversals when that happens.
Conventional trading wisdom says that Crowds are
usually wrong at turning-points. That doesn't mean they are wrong all
the time (yet I take special notice when the Smart Money clearly disagrees).
Consumer Credit Woes Adding Fuel to the Doubt Fires.
Here is a chart from BusinessInsider showing the Fed's latest consumer credit reading. After starting to recover, total outstanding consumer credit had a massive month-over-month decline.
It is tough to stage a lasting recovery without consumers.
So Where Is the Money Coming From?
U.S. Federal debt has increased rapidly.
In a related chart, Doug Short created an
inflation-adjusted view of the debt and an overlay of the tax brackets. With the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts expiring this year, the question is whether the gross
federal debt will be a factor in determining the direction of future tax
rates? Perhaps, like a young household with good jobs buying a home, the
US can afford the rising level of debt? What do you think?
Speaking of Debt-Laden Countries.
European governments on Sunday offered debt-laden Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates as they try to end Greece's fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro.
The rally continues, and the S&P 500 has gotten back to new highs for the past year. Pretty
impressive on many fronts. How does it compare to other markets
though? This chart shows how several other world markets have done in the past twelve months.
This quick glance around the globe shows remarkably similar performance across the markets. Note how closely the price patterns and peaks and valleys are to each other.
It brings up two questions:
Are these countries each really doing the same things right and
wrong?
Are world-wide expectations and responses really this similar?
Perhaps more importantly, it brings up a
third question: What's really causing the markets to behave so
similarly?
Recognizing What Is Happening, Is the First Step to Profiting From It.
To profit in trading, it's more important to recognize what's happening,
rather than to understand what's happening.
The strength of the rallies don't make sense to me based on logic. However, trends don't depend on logic. So, I dusted-off my copy of Trend Following and will simply ride the bucking
bronco.
But I Still Want to Know Why … Don't You?
Occam's Razor suggests that the simplest explanation is most likely to be correct. So, when markets move in a virtual lockstep (despite many unsettling global variables), let's look for simple explanations.
Here are a few ideas (ranging from silly to plausible).
After watching the movie 2012, world leaders decided the one who dies
with the most toys wins.
Human nature is consistent across cultures.
The recession is over, and we have begun a new global bull market.
Something unusual is happening, and we just don't know what it is.
With consumers mostly out of the market, institutions figured-out how to buy and sell from each other, making relatively easy profits with minimal risk.
Governments agreed to temporarily suspend speculating in each other's
markets, other than in the normal course of business.
Governments and central banks agreed to cooperate. Don't fight the Fed, especially when it's a cartel of Feds.
From a Traders Perspective …
There are still many things to watch, from a trader's perspective, despite the strong correlation among markets. For example: divergence patterns can provide early indications of moves in either direction; relative strength comparisons can show which markets are more likely to over or under-perform; and volume spikes can indicate something unusual happening. Nonetheless, the simple observation is that markets are trending higher, so the safest assumption is that the trend continues until evidence proves otherwise.
My grandfather used to say: "you can fool some people, some of the time; but you can't fool all of the people, all of the time." He was not an exceptionally well-educated man, but he was a professional wrestler … so he knew something about stagecraft. My guess is that one of the actors breaks character soon. That tends to happen in most cartels.
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It brings up two questions:
With consumers mostly out of the market, institutions figured-out how to buy and sell from each other, making relatively easy profits with minimal risk.
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