President Obama played a game of H-O-R-S-E with former NBA star Clark Kellogg during the Final Four telecast yesterday. My expectations were low, and I expected it to be corny.
Unlike the North Korean Supreme Leader's penchant for hitting fictional hole-in-one shots on the golf course, Obama started slow and was willing to show some weakness. Nonetheless, throughout the video, he seemed confident and athletic. Moreover, the bantering and interplay seemed to provide some insights into the President's psyche.
All-in-all, I thought it was a good move by him … and that it did a nice job of polishing-up his image and reminding people why he is so popular.
George Soros' ex-partner at the Quantum Fund isn't afraid to share his thoughts. In a recent CNBC interview, Jim says he doesn't pay attention to the Fed, and that he expects Western Currencies to be weak. However, many will focus on these comments: “Yes, we’re going to have another recession, I guarantee you … By 2012 say, it’s time for another recession, … and the next time it’s going to be worse, because we’ve shot all of our bullets”. Here is the video.
For a different look at how the economy's recovery is doing, here is a look at consumer spending.
Is
Consumer Spending a Reliable Leading Indicator of GDP?
The Consumer Metrics Institute produces a U.S.
consumption index based on actual transaction data for a range of major
discretionary purchases such as cars, houses, durable goods, and
vacations. As such, this index was designed to react quickly to
significant consumer spending changes
in a number of
different segments of economy.
George Soros' ex-partner at the Quantum Fund isn't afraid to share his thoughts. In a recent CNBC interview, Jim says he doesn't pay attention to the Fed, and that he expects Western Currencies to be weak. However, many will focus on these comments: “Yes, we’re going to have another recession, I guarantee you … By 2012 say, it’s time for another recession, … and the next time it’s going to be worse, because we’ve shot all of our bullets”. Here is the video.
For a different look at how the economy's recovery is doing, here is a look at consumer spending.
Is
Consumer Spending a Reliable Leading Indicator of GDP?
The Consumer Metrics Institute produces a U.S.
consumption index based on actual transaction data for a range of major
discretionary purchases such as cars, houses, durable goods, and
vacations. As such, this index was designed to react quickly to
significant consumer spending changes
in a number of
different segments of economy.
The terms "Internet
of Things" and "System of Systems" are concepts that help to explain a great deal about what
is happening, now, where the digital world meets the physical and
intellectual.
In the video below, from IBM, you get a glimpse of it …
Imagine if your alarm clock talked to your calendar and knows you
need to catch the
ferry in 1-1/2 hours to get to work, so it wakes you up. But, a half hour before it wakes you, it turned on the heater in your bathroom; and other sensors started your morning coffee and de-iced
the windshield in your car.
Here are some excerpts from the film:
“Over the past century, but accelerating over the past
couple of decades, we have seen the emergence of a kind of global data
field. The planet itself – natural systems, human systems, and physical
objects – have always generated an enormous amount of data, but we
didn’t used to be able to hear it, to see it, or to capture it. Now we can
because all of this stuff is now instrumented. And it’s all
interconnected, so now we can actually have access to it. So, in
effect, the planet has grown a central nervous system.
Look at that complex set of relationships among all of these complex
systems. If we can actually begin to see the patterns in the data, then
we have a much better chance of getting our arms around this. That’s
where societies become more efficient, that’s where more innovation is
sparked.
When we talk about a smarter planet, you can say that it has two
dimensions. One is to be more efficient, less destructive, and to
connect different aspects of life which do affect each other in more
conscious, deliberate and intelligent ways. But the other is also
to generate fundamentally new insights, new activity, and new forms of
social relations. So you could look at the planet as an information,
creation and transmission system, and the universe was hearing its
information but we weren’t. But increasingly now we can, early days,
baby steps days, but we can actually begin to hear the planet talking to
us.”
This framework applies to many other things (for example, trading and markets). Expect to hear more about this type of insight and automation.
The terms "Internet
of Things" and "System of Systems" are concepts that help to explain a great deal about what
is happening, now, where the digital world meets the physical and
intellectual.
In the video below, from IBM, you get a glimpse of it …
Imagine if your alarm clock talked to your calendar and knows you
need to catch the
ferry in 1-1/2 hours to get to work, so it wakes you up. But, a half hour before it wakes you, it turned on the heater in your bathroom; and other sensors started your morning coffee and de-iced
the windshield in your car.
Here are some excerpts from the film:
“Over the past century, but accelerating over the past
couple of decades, we have seen the emergence of a kind of global data
field. The planet itself – natural systems, human systems, and physical
objects – have always generated an enormous amount of data, but we
didn’t used to be able to hear it, to see it, or to capture it. Now we can
because all of this stuff is now instrumented. And it’s all
interconnected, so now we can actually have access to it. So, in
effect, the planet has grown a central nervous system.
Look at that complex set of relationships among all of these complex
systems. If we can actually begin to see the patterns in the data, then
we have a much better chance of getting our arms around this. That’s
where societies become more efficient, that’s where more innovation is
sparked.
When we talk about a smarter planet, you can say that it has two
dimensions. One is to be more efficient, less destructive, and to
connect different aspects of life which do affect each other in more
conscious, deliberate and intelligent ways. But the other is also
to generate fundamentally new insights, new activity, and new forms of
social relations. So you could look at the planet as an information,
creation and transmission system, and the universe was hearing its
information but we weren’t. But increasingly now we can, early days,
baby steps days, but we can actually begin to hear the planet talking to
us.”
This framework applies to many other things (for example, trading and markets). Expect to hear more about this type of insight and automation.
March Madness is in full force. What's a $ Trillion here, or a $ Trillion there?
A Look at the Markets.
Most people consider it "bullish" when markets go up 14 of 16 days. That should make people happy, right?
Recently, though, I've had conversations with several "old-pro" traders who expressed a sense of frustration. They view the recent push higher with skepticism. Trading discipline is allowing them to make money on the upside, but it's not as satisfying as being "right".
What do the Charts Show?
Let's look beyond the obvious up-trend. The following chart and video, from Brian Shannon's Alphatrends site, shows that price is now below the volume-weighted average price paid since Fed Decision to leave rates unchanged.
There is now a lot of support under our recent highs, so many expect the market to correct a little, then resume its move higher.
How Far Can the Rally Go?
On a basic level, the recent market rally shows that there's more buying
demand than selling pressure. However, when there is little selling
pressure, it doesn't take much demand to keep prices going higher.
At this point, the rally has gone on long enough that many of the participants who profited
from the extended move up are now becoming defensive.
Also, some trading
relationships that tend to move together have decoupled. The following
chart shows the recent weakness of the China Shanghai Index and the Euro
in comparison to the U.S. Markets.
Some see the U.S. Market's continued relative strength as a precursor to a new leg of the bull market, while
others see it as a temporary anomaly.
Adding to the bearish case is that several sentiment indicators show
very little fear. The VIX
is moving back to the extreme levels of complacency. Odd-lot shorts
recorded a 13 week low, indicating that the "little guy" has virtually
given up on shorting. Likewise, the lack of fear is downright scary when
you look at CBOE's
Equity Put-to-Call
Ratio. These readings are contrary indicators, meaning they often occur at
turning points in the market.
And with quad-witching
expiration behind us, and an unpopular health-care issue in
the news, the bears will have another chance to show their conviction … or lack of it.
We'll see what happens. I hope you have a good week.
March Madness is in full force. What's a $ Trillion here, or a $ Trillion there?
A Look at the Markets.
Most people consider it "bullish" when markets go up 14 of 16 days. That should make people happy, right?
Recently, though, I've had conversations with several "old-pro" traders who expressed a sense of frustration. They view the recent push higher with skepticism. Trading discipline is allowing them to make money on the upside, but it's not as satisfying as being "right".
What do the Charts Show?
Let's look beyond the obvious up-trend. The following chart and video, from Brian Shannon's Alphatrends site, shows that price is now below the volume-weighted average price paid since Fed Decision to leave rates unchanged.
There is now a lot of support under our recent highs, so many expect the market to correct a little, then resume its move higher.
How Far Can the Rally Go?
On a basic level, the recent market rally shows that there's more buying
demand than selling pressure. However, when there is little selling
pressure, it doesn't take much demand to keep prices going higher.
At this point, the rally has gone on long enough that many of the participants who profited
from the extended move up are now becoming defensive.
Also, some trading
relationships that tend to move together have decoupled. The following
chart shows the recent weakness of the China Shanghai Index and the Euro
in comparison to the U.S. Markets.
Some see the U.S. Market's continued relative strength as a precursor to a new leg of the bull market, while
others see it as a temporary anomaly.
Adding to the bearish case is that several sentiment indicators show
very little fear. The VIX
is moving back to the extreme levels of complacency. Odd-lot shorts
recorded a 13 week low, indicating that the "little guy" has virtually
given up on shorting. Likewise, the lack of fear is downright scary when
you look at CBOE's
Equity Put-to-Call
Ratio. These readings are contrary indicators, meaning they often occur at
turning points in the market.
And with quad-witching
expiration behind us, and an unpopular health-care issue in
the news, the bears will have another chance to show their conviction … or lack of it.
We'll see what happens. I hope you have a good week.
The Markets are showing signs of health and strength. These charts, from Stockcharts.com, show the internal strength and breadth powering the move higher and supporting the current rally.
Here is an intra-day chart of the S&P 500 Index for the past three weeks. It is a modified version of something I saw on Breakpoint Trades' site. It shows the decision-point; price has pulled-back to the trend-line.
In bull markets, this is where Buyers tend to appear. In contrast, Sellers probably see the bearish wedge and negative divergence as signs of waning momentum. Add the potential sell-signal from over-bought stochastics, and we have an interesting set-up for next week.
Even if the markets sell-off from here, there are now a number of support levels close by.
The markets have continued to do well, what about the economy? I think the Employment situation is a primary indicator.
We Stand Out – With Respect to the Severity of our Under-Employment Situation.
There is disagreement about whether the recent jobs number was a positive sign. Some are focusing on the slowing decline; others are focusing on the continued weakness … still others are focusing on the continued downwards adjustments. Nonetheless, this chart makes something clear. Compared to other recessions, the job losses (and lack of job gains), of this Recession are truly unprecedented.
Here is a different way to look at what that chart means.
The Markets are showing signs of health and strength. These charts, from Stockcharts.com, show the internal strength and breadth powering the move higher and supporting the current rally.
Here is an intra-day chart of the S&P 500 Index for the past three weeks. It is a modified version of something I saw on Breakpoint Trades' site. It shows the decision-point; price has pulled-back to the trend-line.
In bull markets, this is where Buyers tend to appear. In contrast, Sellers probably see the bearish wedge and negative divergence as signs of waning momentum. Add the potential sell-signal from over-bought stochastics, and we have an interesting set-up for next week.
Even if the markets sell-off from here, there are now a number of support levels close by.
The markets have continued to do well, what about the economy? I think the Employment situation is a primary indicator.
We Stand Out – With Respect to the Severity of our Under-Employment Situation.
There is disagreement about whether the recent jobs number was a positive sign. Some are focusing on the slowing decline; others are focusing on the continued weakness … still others are focusing on the continued downwards adjustments. Nonetheless, this chart makes something clear. Compared to other recessions, the job losses (and lack of job gains), of this Recession are truly unprecedented.
Here is a different way to look at what that chart means.
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