Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Remember Everything with Evernote

    I have been using a software tool you might find useful.  It solves a problem that you probably have, even if you don't think about it often.

    A Cure for Information Overload.

    It In the old days, you could photocopy something and put it in a file.  So finding it was relatively straight-forward. 

    Captureeverything_art_global Today, you are faced with a different type of challenge (and chances are your filing system is so "1990s").  Nowadays, you might be looking for a picture, audio snippet,  or video … a document (or more likely, just a part
    of one) … or a scrap you saved (like a quote, web-link, or blog post).

    Moreover, as you use the computer for more things (and a bigger percentage of the work you do), it gets harder to find a random "something" that you might be looking for.

    Part of the problem is that we are getting more efficient at creating "stuff", so there is more of it.  In addition, that stuff is a lot more varied than it used to be.

    Capture
    Everything to     Your Personal Digital Memory.

    Evernote makes it easy to store, organize, and find virtually anything.  Even better, it is also good at sharing it with others (award-winning good at it).

    Chances are, if you can see it or think of it, Evernote can help you remember it. Type a text note. Clip a web page. Snap a photo. Grab a screen-shot. It will be there when you need it.

    Finding it Fast, Wherever You Are.

    Everything you capture is automatically processed, indexed, and searchable. That means you can find things quickly and easily.

    You can search for items by keywords, titles, and tags. Evernote even makes the printed and handwritten text inside your images searchable, too (for example, the text on a photo of your white-board).

    There is an application program. However, you can also access your
    information through a Web interface (wherever you are, even if you are away from your computers). In addition, there are versions that work on
    various smart phones and Evernote
    provides "Capture" buttons that integrate with Microsoft Outlook and whatever browser you
    might use. What that means is that it's easy to use, and it's there
    when you need to use it.

    Here is a video showing you how it works.

    One Tool That Takes the Place of Many Others.

    I've tried dozens of programs that do similar things. In the old days, they were called "personal information managers".

    Many of these tools are specialized, so to handle it all you might use a to-do list (or "Getting Things Done" organizer), Internet bookmark manager, screen-capture utility, document management system, and free-form database.

    Evernote does all that, and virtually anything else you throw at it … yet, it doesn't cost you anything until you throw enough stuff into it to pass its generous monthly threshold.  For what it is worth, I clipped over 200 items before passing the limit.

    100510 Evernote LogoBottom-Line:  Use Evernote to save your ideas, things you see, and things you like. Then find them all on any computer or device you use. For free.  It's worth a try, you might like it.

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  • Remember Everything with Evernote

    I have been using a software tool you might find useful.  It solves a problem that you probably have, even if you don't think about it often.

    A Cure for Information Overload.

    It In the old days, you could photocopy something and put it in a file.  So finding it was relatively straight-forward. 

    Captureeverything_art_global Today, you are faced with a different type of challenge (and chances are your filing system is so "1990s").  Nowadays, you might be looking for a picture, audio snippet,  or video … a document (or more likely, just a part
    of one) … or a scrap you saved (like a quote, web-link, or blog post).

    Moreover, as you use the computer for more things (and a bigger percentage of the work you do), it gets harder to find a random "something" that you might be looking for.

    Part of the problem is that we are getting more efficient at creating "stuff", so there is more of it.  In addition, that stuff is a lot more varied than it used to be.

    Capture
    Everything to     Your Personal Digital Memory.

    Evernote makes it easy to store, organize, and find virtually anything.  Even better, it is also good at sharing it with others (award-winning good at it).

    Chances are, if you can see it or think of it, Evernote can help you remember it. Type a text note. Clip a web page. Snap a photo. Grab a screen-shot. It will be there when you need it.

    Finding it Fast, Wherever You Are.

    Everything you capture is automatically processed, indexed, and searchable. That means you can find things quickly and easily.

    You can search for items by keywords, titles, and tags. Evernote even makes the printed and handwritten text inside your images searchable, too (for example, the text on a photo of your white-board).

    There is an application program. However, you can also access your
    information through a Web interface (wherever you are, even if you are away from your computers). In addition, there are versions that work on
    various smart phones and Evernote
    provides "Capture" buttons that integrate with Microsoft Outlook and whatever browser you
    might use. What that means is that it's easy to use, and it's there
    when you need to use it.

    Here is a video showing you how it works.

    One Tool That Takes the Place of Many Others.

    I've tried dozens of programs that do similar things. In the old days, they were called "personal information managers".

    Many of these tools are specialized, so to handle it all you might use a to-do list (or "Getting Things Done" organizer), Internet bookmark manager, screen-capture utility, document management system, and free-form database.

    Evernote does all that, and virtually anything else you throw at it … yet, it doesn't cost you anything until you throw enough stuff into it to pass its generous monthly threshold.  For what it is worth, I clipped over 200 items before passing the limit.

    100510 Evernote LogoBottom-Line:  Use Evernote to save your ideas, things you see, and things you like. Then find them all on any computer or device you use. For free.  It's worth a try, you might like it.

    Related articles by Zemanta
    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

  • What Really Caused the Markets’ Melt-Down?

    Have you heard the commentators trying to explain Thursday's massive move down in the markets by blaming computer trading, a trader's error, or the news about what's happening in Greece?

    I don't believe that any of those explanations are the "cause" of the melt-down.

    100508 The Real Cause of the CrashThere's a difference between things that happen near the same time, and things that cause other things to happen. In statistics this is the difference between a coincident and a causal indicator.

    An Unlikely Explanation.

    Even if some trader accidentally tried to sell a billion shares of Procter & Gamble rather than 1 million shares … Do you really believe a broker's or exchange's risk-management protections would allow a billion share order (sure, an error … but not that error)? Or, do you really believe that a "fat-fingered" sale in America would cause Asia's market to go down 8%?

    Think about how many market participants there are around the world. Free market buying and selling is supposed to take care of mispriced assets. If
    something is too high, then people won't buy it. When something's too
    low, speculators swoop in to grab the bargain.

    A More Likely Scenario.

    The real story is that people are scared. And unlike the recent rally, the move down was met with selling rather than buying.

    There's an old trading adage that says markets climb a wall-of-worry one step at a time, then fall off the roof. In a normal up-trend, chances are you'll just hold what you own; because you have no real incentive to take action.  Consequently, as recent policies and actions pushed the markets higher, many market participants simply smiled and felt good about their good fortune.

    However, it doesn't work the same way when markets go down. In order to protect your profits, or avoid losses, it is important to take risk off the table. As more people start doing that, prices start to move faster, which feeds the fire … and finds even more sellers. As a result, there actually is an incentive to take massive action.

    But Don't You Have to Blame Someone?

    One of the interesting arguments that I've heard recently is that the crash was caused as high-frequency trading firms stopped trading in the market. In other words, the lack of liquidity caused these massive price moves.

    To me, it makes sense that high-frequency trading (or other algorithmic trading systems) stopped trading during times of market turmoil. One of the primary lessons from last year's bear market is to recognize that certain systems are designed only for normal market periods.

    As price and volatility move outside normal levels, we now tighten our risk and cash management parameters. Once we got past those limits, we stopped trading. Why? Because of the massive pain inflicted by not doing that the last time we saw those types of price moves and volatility.

    Likewise, I suspect it's the same for many other systems traders. Each of them went through a process of figuring out what works, and what doesn't work, during different market conditions. It makes sense that they learned to trade less when they don't have an edge.

    Consequently, the patterns of price movement and liquidity changed during the big move down.

    Let the Investigations Begin.

    Trying to figure-out what caused people to be afraid is silly. Fear
    cause people to be afraid. Human nature weighs the fight or flight
    instinct … and often chooses flight during dangerous situations.

    And if people are trying to sell, but no one is buying, then price
    will continue to fall until it's low enough that people feel they're
    getting a bargain again.

    On a side note, if a trader puts in a limit order to buy an asset if
    gets down to a certain price (let's say $0.01 for a share of Accenture)
    and there is no other buyer to fill a "market order", then crazy as it
    sounds, that is what happens.

    Will More Regulation Help Here?

    I see both sides.  On one hand, I am surprised that the Specialists weren't there to back-stop the market and take more sales at falling (yet, realistic) prices. Perhaps that merits some scrutiny?

    On the other hand, in a free market environment, do you really believe that it is in our best interests for the governments and the exchanges to figure-out how to prevent markets from going down?

    When the NYSE started to enforce trading curbs and slowdowns, sophisticated investors started off-loading some of their sales to other markets and exchanges around the world. The result is that prices continued to go down.

    Again, I don't believe that an error caused prices to go down, though it may have been in error in judgment caused by human nature for masses of the population to feel so scared.

    However, remember that fear and greed are the fuel that drives the engine of the markets.  I suspect that limiting fear will have unintended consequences.

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    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

  • What Really Caused the Markets’ Melt-Down?

    Have you heard the commentators trying to explain Thursday's massive move down in the markets by blaming computer trading, a trader's error, or the news about what's happening in Greece?

    I don't believe that any of those explanations are the "cause" of the melt-down.

    100508 The Real Cause of the CrashThere's a difference between things that happen near the same time, and things that cause other things to happen. In statistics this is the difference between a coincident and a causal indicator.

    An Unlikely Explanation.

    Even if some trader accidentally tried to sell a billion shares of Procter & Gamble rather than 1 million shares … Do you really believe a broker's or exchange's risk-management protections would allow a billion share order (sure, an error … but not that error)? Or, do you really believe that a "fat-fingered" sale in America would cause Asia's market to go down 8%?

    Think about how many market participants there are around the world. Free market buying and selling is supposed to take care of mispriced assets. If
    something is too high, then people won't buy it. When something's too
    low, speculators swoop in to grab the bargain.

    A More Likely Scenario.

    The real story is that people are scared. And unlike the recent rally, the move down was met with selling rather than buying.

    There's an old trading adage that says markets climb a wall-of-worry one step at a time, then fall off the roof. In a normal up-trend, chances are you'll just hold what you own; because you have no real incentive to take action.  Consequently, as recent policies and actions pushed the markets higher, many market participants simply smiled and felt good about their good fortune.

    However, it doesn't work the same way when markets go down. In order to protect your profits, or avoid losses, it is important to take risk off the table. As more people start doing that, prices start to move faster, which feeds the fire … and finds even more sellers. As a result, there actually is an incentive to take massive action.

    But Don't You Have to Blame Someone?

    One of the interesting arguments that I've heard recently is that the crash was caused as high-frequency trading firms stopped trading in the market. In other words, the lack of liquidity caused these massive price moves.

    To me, it makes sense that high-frequency trading (or other algorithmic trading systems) stopped trading during times of market turmoil. One of the primary lessons from last year's bear market is to recognize that certain systems are designed only for normal market periods.

    As price and volatility move outside normal levels, we now tighten our risk and cash management parameters. Once we got past those limits, we stopped trading. Why? Because of the massive pain inflicted by not doing that the last time we saw those types of price moves and volatility.

    Likewise, I suspect it's the same for many other systems traders. Each of them went through a process of figuring out what works, and what doesn't work, during different market conditions. It makes sense that they learned to trade less when they don't have an edge.

    Consequently, the patterns of price movement and liquidity changed during the big move down.

    Let the Investigations Begin.

    Trying to figure-out what caused people to be afraid is silly. Fear
    cause people to be afraid. Human nature weighs the fight or flight
    instinct … and often chooses flight during dangerous situations.

    And if people are trying to sell, but no one is buying, then price
    will continue to fall until it's low enough that people feel they're
    getting a bargain again.

    On a side note, if a trader puts in a limit order to buy an asset if
    gets down to a certain price (let's say $0.01 for a share of Accenture)
    and there is no other buyer to fill a "market order", then crazy as it
    sounds, that is what happens.

    Will More Regulation Help Here?

    I see both sides.  On one hand, I am surprised that the Specialists weren't there to back-stop the market and take more sales at falling (yet, realistic) prices. Perhaps that merits some scrutiny?

    On the other hand, in a free market environment, do you really believe that it is in our best interests for the governments and the exchanges to figure-out how to prevent markets from going down?

    When the NYSE started to enforce trading curbs and slowdowns, sophisticated investors started off-loading some of their sales to other markets and exchanges around the world. The result is that prices continued to go down.

    Again, I don't believe that an error caused prices to go down, though it may have been in error in judgment caused by human nature for masses of the population to feel so scared.

    However, remember that fear and greed are the fuel that drives the engine of the markets.  I suspect that limiting fear will have unintended consequences.

    Related articles by Zemanta
    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

  • Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 05/10/10

    Well, that was something you don't see very often … a nearly 2000 point swing in the Dow.

    Here is what that looked like intra-day.

    100506 Tough Day in the Markets
    There has been unusual volatility for a while, but this was noteworthy. 

    A Weekly View of the S&P 500 Index Shows the Bigger Picture. 

    The recent rally stalled at a well-known Fibonacci retracement level.  In addition, it doesn't bode well for the bulls (at least in the short-term) that price just broke down through critical support, and on high volume.

    100509 SP500 Decision Zone

    When markets are ready to change course, we often see violent moves. The side that was enjoying the trend is fighting to keep it alive. The new side, taking over, will have nothing to do with that. Back-and-forth it goes … then all it takes is a massive move to spark a little fear and greed … and you saw what can happen.

    What Does the VIX Show?

    Here is a chart of the Volatility Index ("VIX") from Bespoke.

    100509 VIX Shows Fear Entered the Market

    Apparently, the VIX is not the only way to measure fear in the markets.  Another way is to follow what "insiders" do.  The idea is that if they believe the market will get stronger, then they hold their stock.

    So, What Does Insider Activity Tell Us?

    According to Trader's Narrative, insider selling continues to dominate buying by a wide margin. We’ve seen a continuously extreme reading from insider activity measures for the past 12 months. The market has – until recently – ignored this vote of "no-confidence" and plowed ahead. This sustained level of selling pressure by insiders is unprecedented in recent history. Usually we see the buy/sell ratio fluctuate between the two extremes.

    NYSE CEO Explains the Sell-Off.

    NYSE Euronext CEO, Duncan L. Niederauer, says his exchange slowed trades of stocks including 3M, Accenture and P&G during the 998 point drop.  So, you'll be happy to hear that it was a "feature" … not an "error".

    We are now pretty over-sold and due for a bounce. Throughout the recent rally, pull-backs triggered buying.  It would surprise me if that happened again here.

    Business Posts Moving the
    Markets     that I Found Interesting This Week    :

    • Questioning Whether the Recovery Can Be Sustained? (FTAlphaville)
    • Unpalatable Choices re Euro for Germany & European Central Bank.
      (WSJ)
    • Obama to Nominate Three to the Central Bank. (NYTimes)
    • Merger Will Cause Continental-Size Problems for American Airlines. (WSJ)
    • What Comes After Exhausting 99 Weeks of Unemployment Benefits. (LATimes)
    • More Posts
      Moving the Markets      .

    Lighter Ideas and
    Fun Links
    that I Found Interesting This Week

    Related articles by Zemanta
    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

  • Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 05/10/10

    Well, that was something you don't see very often … a nearly 2000 point swing in the Dow.

    Here is what that looked like intra-day.

    100506 Tough Day in the Markets
    There has been unusual volatility for a while, but this was noteworthy. 

    A Weekly View of the S&P 500 Index Shows the Bigger Picture. 

    The recent rally stalled at a well-known Fibonacci retracement level.  In addition, it doesn't bode well for the bulls (at least in the short-term) that price just broke down through critical support, and on high volume.

    100509 SP500 Decision Zone

    When markets are ready to change course, we often see violent moves. The side that was enjoying the trend is fighting to keep it alive. The new side, taking over, will have nothing to do with that. Back-and-forth it goes … then all it takes is a massive move to spark a little fear and greed … and you saw what can happen.

    What Does the VIX Show?

    Here is a chart of the Volatility Index ("VIX") from Bespoke.

    100509 VIX Shows Fear Entered the Market

    Apparently, the VIX is not the only way to measure fear in the markets.  Another way is to follow what "insiders" do.  The idea is that if they believe the market will get stronger, then they hold their stock.

    So, What Does Insider Activity Tell Us?

    According to Trader's Narrative, insider selling continues to dominate buying by a wide margin. We’ve seen a continuously extreme reading from insider activity measures for the past 12 months. The market has – until recently – ignored this vote of "no-confidence" and plowed ahead. This sustained level of selling pressure by insiders is unprecedented in recent history. Usually we see the buy/sell ratio fluctuate between the two extremes.

    NYSE CEO Explains the Sell-Off.

    NYSE Euronext CEO, Duncan L. Niederauer, says his exchange slowed trades of stocks including 3M, Accenture and P&G during the 998 point drop.  So, you'll be happy to hear that it was a "feature" … not an "error".

    We are now pretty over-sold and due for a bounce. Throughout the recent rally, pull-backs triggered buying.  It would surprise me if that happened again here.

    Business Posts Moving the
    Markets     that I Found Interesting This Week    :

    • Questioning Whether the Recovery Can Be Sustained? (FTAlphaville)
    • Unpalatable Choices re Euro for Germany & European Central Bank.
      (WSJ)
    • Obama to Nominate Three to the Central Bank. (NYTimes)
    • Merger Will Cause Continental-Size Problems for American Airlines. (WSJ)
    • What Comes After Exhausting 99 Weeks of Unemployment Benefits. (LATimes)
    • More Posts
      Moving the Markets      .

    Lighter Ideas and
    Fun Links
    that I Found Interesting This Week

    Related articles by Zemanta
    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

  • Iron Man 2 is Good Mindless Fun

    100508 Iron Man 2 Image Have you seen it yet?  It is certainly generating some "buzz" and box-office traffic.

    My recommendation: let go of your expectations and simply enjoy the
    spectacle.

    Even Freud has to agree, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar … and sometimes, a movie is just a movie.

    Iron Man 2 was a fun and action-packed movie that I'm glad I watched on a big screen.

    Does It Live-Up to Its Hype?

    Before its release, there were a number of very negative reviews and predictions that it would be "unwatchable". Nonetheless, audiences are watching and, according to Rotten Tomatoes, enjoying the movie.

    I had fun seeing it with my son this weekend. It was good enough in virtually every way.

    The story held together well enough that I didn't think much about the plot (not that there was much of a plot to think about).

    The graphics didn't "wow" me, the way that Avatar's did; but they were good enough that I didn't think about them (even though many of the special effects had to have been computer-generated). 

    Here is a Trailer so you can see it for yourself.

    Here are more videos.

    Related articles by Zemanta
    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

  • Iron Man 2 is Good Mindless Fun

    100508 Iron Man 2 Image Have you seen it yet?  It is certainly generating some "buzz" and box-office traffic.

    My recommendation: let go of your expectations and simply enjoy the
    spectacle.

    Even Freud has to agree, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar … and sometimes, a movie is just a movie.

    Iron Man 2 was a fun and action-packed movie that I'm glad I watched on a big screen.

    Does It Live-Up to Its Hype?

    Before its release, there were a number of very negative reviews and predictions that it would be "unwatchable". Nonetheless, audiences are watching and, according to Rotten Tomatoes, enjoying the movie.

    I had fun seeing it with my son this weekend. It was good enough in virtually every way.

    The story held together well enough that I didn't think much about the plot (not that there was much of a plot to think about).

    The graphics didn't "wow" me, the way that Avatar's did; but they were good enough that I didn't think about them (even though many of the special effects had to have been computer-generated). 

    Here is a Trailer so you can see it for yourself.

    Here are more videos.

    Related articles by Zemanta
    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

  • The President, as Comedian-In-Chief

    Seal of the President of the United States

    President Obama was a hit at the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner last week.

    Jay Leno was the
    headliner at the dinner, and Obama called him "the only person whose
    ratings fell more than mine."

    Leno observed that Obama was less aloof
    than he appears … "He loves to socialize … health care, car
    companies," naming industries where the Obama administration has
    intervened.

    The President got more laughs than Leno.  Perhaps part of that was in
    deference to positional power; however, give Obama some credit – he hired staff writers
    from The Daily Show to come up with his material.

    Related articles by Zemanta

    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

  • The President, as Comedian-In-Chief

    Seal of the President of the United States

    President Obama was a hit at the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner last week.

    Jay Leno was the
    headliner at the dinner, and Obama called him "the only person whose
    ratings fell more than mine."

    Leno observed that Obama was less aloof
    than he appears … "He loves to socialize … health care, car
    companies," naming industries where the Obama administration has
    intervened.

    The President got more laughs than Leno.  Perhaps part of that was in
    deference to positional power; however, give Obama some credit – he hired staff writers
    from The Daily Show to come up with his material.

    Related articles by Zemanta

    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]