Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Observations on Holiday Season Economic Indicators

    Hopefully, you are having a happy holiday season.

    Technology is changing how I prepare this year.  A major portion of my gift purchases happened online, rather than in-person.  What about you?

     Everything is Moving Online

    I did go to the malls; and what I found was lots of parking spaces and deals that I could easily better with an internet connection.

    It will be interesting to see how consumers spent, and which retailers were naughty and nice.

    Here are a few of the other things I noticed recently.

    The Christmas Lights Economic Indicator?

    In past years, my neighborhood was a flashing Wonderland of Christmas lights.  This year, the displays are much more down-to-earth.  Are people feeling less jolly?  My guess is that fewer people chose to pay someone to hang the lights for them.

    The Blockbuster Indicator?

    When I went to see Avatar, on its opening day at the theater, a quarter of the seats were empty.   Box Office Mojo reports that the opening numbers were respectable, though not phenomenal.  The reviews have been great … so perhaps fewer people chose to pay the $3 per ticket premium to see this movie in 3D because they are more in touch with their budgets and spending limits.

  • Observations on Holiday Season Economic Indicators

    Hopefully, you are having a happy holiday season.

    Technology is changing how I prepare this year.  A major portion of my gift purchases happened online, rather than in-person.  What about you?

     Everything is Moving Online

    I did go to the malls; and what I found was lots of parking spaces and deals that I could easily better with an internet connection.

    It will be interesting to see how consumers spent, and which retailers were naughty and nice.

    Here are a few of the other things I noticed recently.

    The Christmas Lights Economic Indicator?

    In past years, my neighborhood was a flashing Wonderland of Christmas lights.  This year, the displays are much more down-to-earth.  Are people feeling less jolly?  My guess is that fewer people chose to pay someone to hang the lights for them.

    The Blockbuster Indicator?

    When I went to see Avatar, on its opening day at the theater, a quarter of the seats were empty.   Box Office Mojo reports that the opening numbers were respectable, though not phenomenal.  The reviews have been great … so perhaps fewer people chose to pay the $3 per ticket premium to see this movie in 3D because they are more in touch with their budgets and spending limits.

  • Avatar Delivers the Wow!

    091220 Avatar Poster 800pI highly recommend seeing James Cameron's new movie, Avatar, in 3-D.  It was terrific … much better than I hoped or expected.

    It was so good that none of us would leave to refill the popcorn … And my wife didn't use the bathroom once (which means you should expect Avatar to win a bunch of Oscars).

    The story and underlying message were good. Yet, that isn't why people will flock to see it. This is one of those
    "you have to watch this on a big screen" movies. It is a spectacle.

    Enjoy it for what it
    is … And later, think about how many cool technologies you saw the
    characters use that you can't wait for someone to develop in this
    world.  Visionary and very cool.

    Here is a short example of what to expect.

    Not All 3-D is Created Equal.

    The CGI effects were way better than I expected.  Frankly it was hard to tell what was "real" and what wasn't.  The unsung hero, though, was the 3-D technology.  It was far and away the best I've seen, because it seemed real and natural, rather than a gimmick.  It was so good, you forget it is in 3D.

    091220 Cowboys Attempt at 3-D In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys handed out the older blue and red filmed 3-D glasses at their game against the San Diego Chargers last week.  The idea was to use the giant screen to show 3-D replay highlights. 

    Here is a picture of people trying to use them at the game.  At first, it was novel.  However, as you might have guessed, watching the live game with the glasses was almost impossible.  After a few minutes, the crowd started booing until the stadium switched back to regular graphics.

    After watching Avatar, though, I expect to see a lot more 3-D content. Major manufacturers are betting on it too. The technology is getting better … And so is the experience.

    Other Resources:

  • Avatar Delivers the Wow!

    091220 Avatar Poster 800pI highly recommend seeing James Cameron's new movie, Avatar, in 3-D.  It was terrific … much better than I hoped or expected.

    It was so good that none of us would leave to refill the popcorn … And my wife didn't use the bathroom once (which means you should expect Avatar to win a bunch of Oscars).

    The story and underlying message were good. Yet, that isn't why people will flock to see it. This is one of those
    "you have to watch this on a big screen" movies. It is a spectacle.

    Enjoy it for what it
    is … And later, think about how many cool technologies you saw the
    characters use that you can't wait for someone to develop in this
    world.  Visionary and very cool.

    Here is a short example of what to expect.

    Not All 3-D is Created Equal.

    The CGI effects were way better than I expected.  Frankly it was hard to tell what was "real" and what wasn't.  The unsung hero, though, was the 3-D technology.  It was far and away the best I've seen, because it seemed real and natural, rather than a gimmick.  It was so good, you forget it is in 3D.

    091220 Cowboys Attempt at 3-D In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys handed out the older blue and red filmed 3-D glasses at their game against the San Diego Chargers last week.  The idea was to use the giant screen to show 3-D replay highlights. 

    Here is a picture of people trying to use them at the game.  At first, it was novel.  However, as you might have guessed, watching the live game with the glasses was almost impossible.  After a few minutes, the crowd started booing until the stadium switched back to regular graphics.

    After watching Avatar, though, I expect to see a lot more 3-D content. Major manufacturers are betting on it too. The technology is getting better … And so is the experience.

    Other Resources:

  • Palin and Shatner’s Strange Word War

    Words alone, won't do this justice.  You should watch for yourself.

    Sarah Palin and William Shatner channel something strangely reminiscent of beatnik poetry or Haiku.

    Enjoy.

    It is like a competitive poetry performance, except they are reading each other's words out of context.

    Other Resources:

     

  • Palin and Shatner’s Strange Word War

    Words alone, won't do this justice.  You should watch for yourself.

    Sarah Palin and William Shatner channel something strangely reminiscent of beatnik poetry or Haiku.

    Enjoy.

    It is like a competitive poetry performance, except they are reading each other's words out of context.

    Other Resources:

     

  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/13/09

    It was a slow news week, as long as you weren't Tiger Woods.  Numbers and charts can tell only so much of a story.

    Problems Comparison Between Tiger Woods and Jay Z

    Market Commentary.

    Why has the market stayed so strong?  The first thing that comes to mind is massive government intervention.  The next thing that comes to mind is that there have been more buyers than sellers.  That is not a pun.  Perhaps it is more telling to say there hasn't been a lot of committed short sellers.  Recently, however, there hasn't been a lot of committed buyers either.  The result has been a month-long, narrow trading range.

    Here is an intra-day chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is easy to see the trading range that has constrained prices for the past month.  Notice how many times price has turned-down off the highs, and bounced off the lows.  The question is, will it happen again?

    091213 Trading Range for the Dow

    Technical traders will see this as a likely time to turn back down.  The Dow is at the top of its recent trading range and has several negative divergences (like the MACD shown at the bottom of the chart).  However, markets aren't known for rewarding the "easy" trade.

    In addition, big moves often happen after tight ranges.  So, the next move might be a big one.

    For a clue as to the direction of the next move, it may help to look to the Financial Sector.

    Financials are Often Early Indicators of the Broader Market.

    Here is a chart of Goldman Sachs. It is going through a downside correction, beneath its 50-day moving average, and is testing support.  A sustained move above this level could be a very bullish early indicator for the U.S. Equity markets.  A further break-down, from here, would also be telling.

    091213 Goldman Sachs at Support Level

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Time Magazine's The 50 Best Inventions of 2009. (Time)
    • Loneliness is Contagious: Even If That Sounds like an Oxymoron. (Slate)
    • Six Social Media Trends for 2010. (Leader)
    • Learning From Porn: Lessons from the Cutting-Edge Of Technology. (MediaPost)
    • Dissecting the Dollar's Re-Design Project. Is This Re-Branding? (Mint)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/13/09

    It was a slow news week, as long as you weren't Tiger Woods.  Numbers and charts can tell only so much of a story.

    Problems Comparison Between Tiger Woods and Jay Z

    Market Commentary.

    Why has the market stayed so strong?  The first thing that comes to mind is massive government intervention.  The next thing that comes to mind is that there have been more buyers than sellers.  That is not a pun.  Perhaps it is more telling to say there hasn't been a lot of committed short sellers.  Recently, however, there hasn't been a lot of committed buyers either.  The result has been a month-long, narrow trading range.

    Here is an intra-day chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is easy to see the trading range that has constrained prices for the past month.  Notice how many times price has turned-down off the highs, and bounced off the lows.  The question is, will it happen again?

    091213 Trading Range for the Dow

    Technical traders will see this as a likely time to turn back down.  The Dow is at the top of its recent trading range and has several negative divergences (like the MACD shown at the bottom of the chart).  However, markets aren't known for rewarding the "easy" trade.

    In addition, big moves often happen after tight ranges.  So, the next move might be a big one.

    For a clue as to the direction of the next move, it may help to look to the Financial Sector.

    Financials are Often Early Indicators of the Broader Market.

    Here is a chart of Goldman Sachs. It is going through a downside correction, beneath its 50-day moving average, and is testing support.  A sustained move above this level could be a very bullish early indicator for the U.S. Equity markets.  A further break-down, from here, would also be telling.

    091213 Goldman Sachs at Support Level

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Time Magazine's The 50 Best Inventions of 2009. (Time)
    • Loneliness is Contagious: Even If That Sounds like an Oxymoron. (Slate)
    • Six Social Media Trends for 2010. (Leader)
    • Learning From Porn: Lessons from the Cutting-Edge Of Technology. (MediaPost)
    • Dissecting the Dollar's Re-Design Project. Is This Re-Branding? (Mint)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

  • A Water Drop Filmed in Ultra-Slow-Motion, at 2000 Frames-per-Second.

    What looks "normal" in real-time, is something quite different when you have the means to perceive it. 

    Very cool stuff.  See for yourself.

    Here is a video showing a water-drop in ultra-slow-motion (2,000 frames per second). It is from the Discovery Channel's series 'Time Warp', where MIT scientist and teacher Jeff Lieberman and digital-imaging expert Matt Kearney use the latest in high-speed photography to turn never-before-seen wonders into an experience of beauty and learning.

    What it Means.

    Wisdom comes from finer distinctions. 

    Think about how being able to make more distinctions per unit time is changing the world. 

    It is changing everything … from auto-landing airplanes, your car's thermostat or cruise control, to Goldman Sach's recent trading record from high-frequency trading.

  • A Water Drop Filmed in Ultra-Slow-Motion, at 2000 Frames-per-Second.

    What looks "normal" in real-time, is something quite different when you have the means to perceive it. 

    Very cool stuff.  See for yourself.

    Here is a video showing a water-drop in ultra-slow-motion (2,000 frames per second). It is from the Discovery Channel's series 'Time Warp', where MIT scientist and teacher Jeff Lieberman and digital-imaging expert Matt Kearney use the latest in high-speed photography to turn never-before-seen wonders into an experience of beauty and learning.

    What it Means.

    Wisdom comes from finer distinctions. 

    Think about how being able to make more distinctions per unit time is changing the world. 

    It is changing everything … from auto-landing airplanes, your car's thermostat or cruise control, to Goldman Sach's recent trading record from high-frequency trading.