Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Capitalogix Commentary 02/07/10

    How easy will it be to pass the $3.8 Trillion Dollar Budget?  Well, here is a chart that shows President Obama's Job Approval ratings. So, harder than it would have been.

    100207 President Obama Job Appoval Poll

    Perhaps this is a better graphic to explain what is happening.

    100207 President Obama and the Economy Cartoon

    It is interesting that markets have gone up while President Obama's popularity continues to go down.  Apparently, sentiment is not caused by what happens in the markets.  Beware, however, if market price is caused by sentiment … because sentiment is not pretty right now.

    Critical Juncture for the Equity Markets.

    Markets are often confusing.  This is one of those relatively rare times where the main issue is staring the world in the face.  I say that because so many of the world equity market charts look the same.

    This chart shows a weekly view of the S&P 500 Index.  There is a pretty clear down-trend line starting from the market's high in October 2007.  The market rallied back to the underside of the line, and has fallen from there.

    100207 SP500 Down Trend Line

    In order for the market to meaningfully rally, it must get past that overhead resistance (marked by the big red arrow).  In the short-term, bulls can take some comfort on the way the market rallied off the lows to close Friday's session.  That is often a sign of a bullish reversal.

    100207 SP500 Volume Reversal

    We'll see what happens.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Will Obama's Proposed 3-Year Freeze on Some Types of Spending Work? (NYTimes)
    • Bernanke to Testify on Fed Exit Strategy this Week. (Bloomberg)
    • Taleb:
      "Every Single Human Being" Should Short Treasuries. (BusinessInsider)
    • Money Market Funds Can Now Prevent Redemptions. (MoneyNews)
    • Rep. Barney Frank Calls for Abolishing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac. (USAToday)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 02/07/10

    How easy will it be to pass the $3.8 Trillion Dollar Budget?  Well, here is a chart that shows President Obama's Job Approval ratings. So, harder than it would have been.

    100207 President Obama Job Appoval Poll

    Perhaps this is a better graphic to explain what is happening.

    100207 President Obama and the Economy Cartoon

    It is interesting that markets have gone up while President Obama's popularity continues to go down.  Apparently, sentiment is not caused by what happens in the markets.  Beware, however, if market price is caused by sentiment … because sentiment is not pretty right now.

    Critical Juncture for the Equity Markets.

    Markets are often confusing.  This is one of those relatively rare times where the main issue is staring the world in the face.  I say that because so many of the world equity market charts look the same.

    This chart shows a weekly view of the S&P 500 Index.  There is a pretty clear down-trend line starting from the market's high in October 2007.  The market rallied back to the underside of the line, and has fallen from there.

    100207 SP500 Down Trend Line

    In order for the market to meaningfully rally, it must get past that overhead resistance (marked by the big red arrow).  In the short-term, bulls can take some comfort on the way the market rallied off the lows to close Friday's session.  That is often a sign of a bullish reversal.

    100207 SP500 Volume Reversal

    We'll see what happens.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Will Obama's Proposed 3-Year Freeze on Some Types of Spending Work? (NYTimes)
    • Bernanke to Testify on Fed Exit Strategy this Week. (Bloomberg)
    • Taleb:
      "Every Single Human Being" Should Short Treasuries. (BusinessInsider)
    • Money Market Funds Can Now Prevent Redemptions. (MoneyNews)
    • Rep. Barney Frank Calls for Abolishing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac. (USAToday)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • This Post Will Help You Predict the Future of Our Economy

    Have you ever seen a funny photo that was captured just before a "something bad" happens? The tag-line is usually something like … This isn't going to end well.

    Well, after the news came out about President Obama seeking a $3.8 Trillion budget.  I remembered seeing this chart; and it isn't so funny.

    Federal Spending Is Growing Faster Than Federal Revenue.

    Since 1965, federal tax revenues and spending have soared. Revenues have increased by more than $1.5 trillion, and spending is up by $3.3 trillion. In 2009, federal revenue will drop, while federal spending is expected to increase by nearly $1 trillion.

    100207 Federal Spending Exceeds Revenue

    To give you some context for this issue, here is an interactive U.S. Debt Clock.

    100207 Click to see US Debt Clock

    Click the picture and you'll see a version that updates in real-time.

  • This Post Will Help You Predict the Future of Our Economy

    Have you ever seen a funny photo that was captured just before a "something bad" happens? The tag-line is usually something like … This isn't going to end well.

    Well, after the news came out about President Obama seeking a $3.8 Trillion budget.  I remembered seeing this chart; and it isn't so funny.

    Federal Spending Is Growing Faster Than Federal Revenue.

    Since 1965, federal tax revenues and spending have soared. Revenues have increased by more than $1.5 trillion, and spending is up by $3.3 trillion. In 2009, federal revenue will drop, while federal spending is expected to increase by nearly $1 trillion.

    100207 Federal Spending Exceeds Revenue

    To give you some context for this issue, here is an interactive U.S. Debt Clock.

    100207 Click to see US Debt Clock

    Click the picture and you'll see a version that updates in real-time.

  • One Small Step for the Saints, One Giant Leap for New Orleans

    Mardi Gras does not officially start for another week … but the party has already started.

    http://cagle.com/politicalcartoons/PCcartoons/PCbest7.asp

    Watching with my son, I was amazed how many times he would tell me he wanted Doritos … right after seeing their ad.

    Here is a link to watch all the 2010 Super Bowl Ads in one place.

  • One Small Step for the Saints, One Giant Leap for New Orleans

    Mardi Gras does not officially start for another week … but the party has already started.

    http://cagle.com/politicalcartoons/PCcartoons/PCbest7.asp

    Watching with my son, I was amazed how many times he would tell me he wanted Doritos … right after seeing their ad.

    Here is a link to watch all the 2010 Super Bowl Ads in one place.

  • An Even-Tempered Apology, SNL Skit

    100207 SNL Skit Even Tempered Apology Andy Samberg channels White House Chief of Staff, Rahm Emmanuel, in this bleep-ridden skit.

    The premise is that the White House Chief of Staff offers his apologies for some recent comments. 

    It made me laugh out loud and wonder what politics would be like if people actually said what they were thinking.

    Here is a link if you want to read a transcript.

  • An Even-Tempered Apology, SNL Skit

    100207 SNL Skit Even Tempered Apology Andy Samberg channels White House Chief of Staff, Rahm Emmanuel, in this bleep-ridden skit.

    The premise is that the White House Chief of Staff offers his apologies for some recent comments. 

    It made me laugh out loud and wonder what politics would be like if people actually said what they were thinking.

    Here is a link if you want to read a transcript.

  • Why You Might Want an iPad

    Here is Apple's launch video.  They do know how to innovate and market, don't they?

    Yes, it is stuff that does the stuff their other stuff does.  Yet, somehow it is generating great Buzz.

    Are you planning to buy one?  I'm planning to resist … for now.

  • Why You Might Want an iPad

    Here is Apple's launch video.  They do know how to innovate and market, don't they?

    Yes, it is stuff that does the stuff their other stuff does.  Yet, somehow it is generating great Buzz.

    Are you planning to buy one?  I'm planning to resist … for now.