Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Things You Can Learn From the Navy Seals’ Creed & Code

    The Seals have gotten some good press recently.  A little research suggests there is much to learn from their culture and actions.

    To get started, here are a few things worth sharing.

    The first is a video that presents the Navy Seal Creed: A Warrior's Creed.

     

    Here is the text.

    “In times of war or uncertainty there is a special breed of warrior ready to answer our Nation’s call. A common man with uncommon desire to succeed. Forged by adversity, he stands alongside America’s finest special operations forces to serve his country, the American people, and protect their way of life.

    I am that man.

    My Trident is a symbol of honor and heritage. Bestowed upon me by the heroes that have gone before, it embodies the trust of those I have sworn to protect. By wearing the Trident I accept the responsibility of my chosen profession and way of life. It is a privilege that I must earn every day.

    My loyalty to Country and Team is beyond reproach. I humbly serve as a guardian to my fellow Americans always ready to defend those who are unable to defend themselves. I do not advertise the nature of my work, nor seek recognition for my actions. I voluntarily accept the inherent hazards of my profession, placing the welfare and security of others before my own.

    I serve with honor on and off the battlefield. The ability to control my emotions and my actions, regardless of circumstance, sets me apart from other men. Uncompromising integrity is my standard. My character and honor are steadfast. My word is my bond.

    We expect to lead and be led. In the absence of orders I will take charge, lead my teammates and accomplish the mission. I lead by example in all situations.

    I will never quit. I persevere and thrive on adversity. My Nation expects me to be physically harder and mentally stronger than my enemies. If knocked down, I will get back up, every time. I will draw on every remaining ounce of strength to protect my teammates and to accomplish our mission. I am never out of the fight.

    We demand discipline. We expect innovation. The lives of my teammates and the success of our mission depend on me – my technical skill, tactical proficiency, and attention to detail. My training is never complete.

    We train for war and fight to win.     I stand ready to bring the full spectrum of combat power to bear in order to achieve my mission and the goals established by my country. The execution of my duties will be swift and violent when required yet guided by the very principles that I serve to defend.

    Tradition. Brave men have fought and died building the proud tradition and feared reputation that I am bound to uphold. In the worst of conditions, the legacy of my teammates steadies my resolve and silently guides my every deed.

    I will not fail.”

     
    110504 Navy Seal EmblemNext is a link to a gallery of photos showing Navy Seals in action.

    The third is a link to a book Amazon is currently giving away in Kindle format.  It is called "Team Secrets of the Navy Seals".

    Finally, here is a link to the Seal's Code, which is worth a look.

     

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  • Here a Few Links for Your Reading Enjoyment

    News just out that Osama Bin Laden has been killed.  Do you think the news will effect markets this week?  Emotion is a powerful driver of markets.

     
    Here are some of the links that caught my eye or attention … hope you find something interesting.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Big Money VC Deals are Back. (GigaOm)
    • Amazon's Web Hosting Problems are Incredibly Bullish for the Cloud. (Pearlman)
    • Does it Matter that S&P Cut its Outlook on US debt? (FT)
    • Nobel Laureate Stiglitz Calls for New Reserve Currency. (CrossingWallStreet)
    • The Fed vs. Other Central Banks – Are Strategies Diverging? (Barrons)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

     

  • Here a Few Links for Your Reading Enjoyment

    News just out that Osama Bin Laden has been killed.  Do you think the news will effect markets this week?  Emotion is a powerful driver of markets.

     
    Here are some of the links that caught my eye or attention … hope you find something interesting.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Big Money VC Deals are Back. (GigaOm)
    • Amazon's Web Hosting Problems are Incredibly Bullish for the Cloud. (Pearlman)
    • Does it Matter that S&P Cut its Outlook on US debt? (FT)
    • Nobel Laureate Stiglitz Calls for New Reserve Currency. (CrossingWallStreet)
    • The Fed vs. Other Central Banks – Are Strategies Diverging? (Barrons)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

     

  • Could the Adoption of the iPad Really Be as Significant as the Adoption of the Internet?

    A small software company, started by a friend of mine, just did something that surprised me. It bought a new iPad for each of its employees.

     

    110501 iPad2 Image

    Some companies will justify purchasing an iPad for key executives as a consumption tool. Other companies may justify purchasing an iPad for a developer, as a way to get them used to the form factor. Still other companies may purchase iPads as an incentive to recruit or retain employees and to foster a sense of a "cool" environment.

    This Time It Is Different.

    What strikes me is how fast this wave of tablet computing is taking-off. Yes, I remember how many times companies have tried non-traditional PC initiatives. In fact, my attic is an electronics graveyard for many of the earlier attempts. However, this time is different. I see 60-year-old men in McDonald's using and iPad to play Scrabble. I see 50-year-old business-people doing their work using iPads on an airplane. Moreover, I see data being formatted for easier consumption on those devices.

    The result is that this probably represents a fundamental change.

    Back in the 90s, the Internet finally took off. Early adopters talked about how long they were doing similar things with AOL, CompuServe or Delphi. Yet, when the Internet finally took off something changed.

    Would you have guessed that a decade later electronics chain stores (like Circuit City) or bookstores (like Borders) would be casualties? Think how it affected the U.S. Post Office, telephone companies, etc. The list of winners and losers from that shift can be a lesson or an example.

    A Different Look at the Same Issue.

    I grew up with LP records. In high school, I watched eight-track tapes give way to cassettes. Then CDs gathered market share. After that, MP3s came along. Something funny happened along the way though … An MP3 file is just a song; but modern MP3 players allow you to carry your entire music library with you wherever you go. It's not just a linear progression; something happened and the whole value proposition transformed.

    We are watching a similar technology shift happen right now. To borrow a line from Sun Microsystems, "the network is the computer".

    More of our data, applications, and services are moving to the "Cloud". And a tool like the iPad can become much more significant than merely the device itself. It becomes the portal giving you access to everything on your company's private computers, as well as what's available on the public Internet. Again, the whole value proposition transforms.

    A decade from now, there will be a whole new list of beneficiaries and casualties from this quantum shift.

    Something to think about; who will be the big winners and losers?

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  • Markets at New Highs – So Why Hasn’t It Been Easy to Trade?

    While the US Equity Indices have broken out above recent highs to continue their up-trend, I hear traders complain that this hasn't been an easy market to trade.

    Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index.

    110501 SP500 Index at New High
    On one hand, you'd think that a straight-shot bull run higher would feel as safe as the kiddie rides at the amusement park. On the other hand, sagging internal breadth, divergences, and the impending end of QE2 have triggered cautious instincts in many professional traders. As a result, many are selling strength, and end up under-invested during the next push higher.

    It's been even more challenging for the Bears, who keep trying to identify and sell a top in this market. However, there's been little selling follow-through. My guess is that because so few people are fully invested in the equity markets, each dip (no matter how small) seems like a buying opportunity to someone.

    So, how long can the markets continue to produce these straight up moves to new highs? While the answer would seem to be "indefinitely", we know that's not realistic either. This seems a lot like the market did from December through February, where we barely saw a red day; but you couldn't help wondering each day if this was the top.

    A Little Politics and Economic Policy.

    On a side note, Fed Chairman Bernanke held a press conference last week. It was the first ever press conference immediately following a Federal Reserve meeting.  Historically, the Fed has released minutes of their meetings about three weeks afterwards. Now, they expect to hold these sessions after every meeting.

    On the surface, Bernanke's comments reiterated that the Fed was resolute in their intent to stop QE2 and doesn't desire to reverse the current trend of inflation or a weakening dollar. What caught my eye, however, was how Gold and Silver spiked as he spoke.

    It is worth noting that the U.S. Dollar has fallen 31% so far this year compared to Gold. Likewise the Dollar has fallen 25% against the Swiss Franc (which many consider the gold standard of Fiat Currencies). For what it is worth, the Dollar Index is barely a percentage point above the all-time lows set before the financial panic in 2008.

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  • Markets at New Highs – So Why Hasn’t It Been Easy to Trade?

    While the US Equity Indices have broken out above recent highs to continue their up-trend, I hear traders complain that this hasn't been an easy market to trade.

    Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index.

    110501 SP500 Index at New High
    On one hand, you'd think that a straight-shot bull run higher would feel as safe as the kiddie rides at the amusement park. On the other hand, sagging internal breadth, divergences, and the impending end of QE2 have triggered cautious instincts in many professional traders. As a result, many are selling strength, and end up under-invested during the next push higher.

    It's been even more challenging for the Bears, who keep trying to identify and sell a top in this market. However, there's been little selling follow-through. My guess is that because so few people are fully invested in the equity markets, each dip (no matter how small) seems like a buying opportunity to someone.

    So, how long can the markets continue to produce these straight up moves to new highs? While the answer would seem to be "indefinitely", we know that's not realistic either. This seems a lot like the market did from December through February, where we barely saw a red day; but you couldn't help wondering each day if this was the top.

    A Little Politics and Economic Policy.

    On a side note, Fed Chairman Bernanke held a press conference last week. It was the first ever press conference immediately following a Federal Reserve meeting.  Historically, the Fed has released minutes of their meetings about three weeks afterwards. Now, they expect to hold these sessions after every meeting.

    On the surface, Bernanke's comments reiterated that the Fed was resolute in their intent to stop QE2 and doesn't desire to reverse the current trend of inflation or a weakening dollar. What caught my eye, however, was how Gold and Silver spiked as he spoke.

    It is worth noting that the U.S. Dollar has fallen 31% so far this year compared to Gold. Likewise the Dollar has fallen 25% against the Swiss Franc (which many consider the gold standard of Fiat Currencies). For what it is worth, the Dollar Index is barely a percentage point above the all-time lows set before the financial panic in 2008.

    Related articles
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  • Great Video – “The Race” is an Uplifting Reminder of What’s Possible

    Worth watching.
     
    Heather Dorniden, from the University of Minnesota, races the 600m at the Big 10 Indoor Track Championships. What happens reminds what a race really is about … and, perhaps, what life is really about.
     
    Here is the video.
     

     

    We will fall. We can rise.  It is a choice.

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  • Great Video – “The Race” is an Uplifting Reminder of What’s Possible

    Worth watching.
     
    Heather Dorniden, from the University of Minnesota, races the 600m at the Big 10 Indoor Track Championships. What happens reminds what a race really is about … and, perhaps, what life is really about.
     
    Here is the video.
     

     

    We will fall. We can rise.  It is a choice.

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  • Here a Few Links for Your Weekend Reading Enjoyment

    My week flew by.  Meetings, site visits, too many business meals at restaurants seemingly conspiring to make a 300 pounder out of me.
     
    Here are some of the links that caught my eye or attention … hope you find something interesting.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Why Record Corporate Profits Might Not Be Good for the U.S. Economy. (Slate)
    • "Something's Brewing" Behind These Fascinating Financial Times. (HL)
    • 24 Signs Warning Something Is Wrong With Our Economy. (BusinessInsider)
    • Hong Kong & Singapore Closing in on NY as Dominant Hedge-Fund Hub. (efinance)
    • Creative Destruction: Japan and the Economics of Natural Disasters. (NewYorker)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Four Reasons Any Action Is Better than None. Makes Sense. (HBR)
    • Genetically Modified Cows Produce 'Human' Milk. (Telegraph)
    • College Grants for Vegans? Students Tap Unusual Sources for Financial Aid. (WSJ)
    • Why the Cloud Is Actually the Safest Place for Your Data. (Mashable)
    • Guess Who Doesn't Tweet? 87% name recognition, But Only 7% Use It. (MediaPost)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

     

  • Gold Has Been Glittering, But Silver Has Had a Stronger Move

    Gold continues to receive the headlines, yet silver is really moving.

    Bespoke posted a chart that highlights how remarkable silver's run has been.

     

    110424 Silver Gold and the SPX

    Had you invested $100 in silver ten years ago today, your investment would now be worth $1,037.  A $100 investment in gold would be worth about half that at $569, and a $100 investment in the stock market (S&P 500) would be worth just $107.48.

    Here is what Jim Rogers thinks about silver's move.

     

     

     

    For more on that, here is a link to an article where he reminds that parabolic moves always collapse.

     

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