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Euro Shorts Scurried When ECB Declared It Was Ready To Do ‘What Ever It Takes’
Being short the euro was a popular position recently. In addition, being short Spanish and Italian debt and long treasuries and Bunds was the way to go.That was then, this is now.The European Central Bank’s mandate allows it to fight excessive borrowing costs for eurozone countries, Mario Draghi, its president, said last Thursday.He went on to say the ECB was “ready to do whatever it takes” to preserve the single currency.The euro strengthened and the bond prices of debt issued by stressed eurozone countries rallied after Mr Draghi warned … "Believe me, [my actions] will be enough [to hurt the shorts]."Here is link to the comments that sent shorts scurrying.
While traders know not to fight the Fed … there are not many “bullets in Draghi’s gun”. Of course, threatening to do something major was one of them. He just used it. If there is no follow-through, his credibility drops and there will be ramifications. -
Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading
Having just come back from the Jersey Shore, where Cheesteak sandwiches seemingly grow like grass …
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
- Integrate Data into Products, or Get Left Behind. (Harvard Business Review)
- Confessions of an Ex-Mormon. (TheNewRepublic)
- How To Win an Olympic Event. Great Interactive Graphic series. (NYTimes)
- How To Win Marathons? Hint. It doesn’t involve fancy footwear. (TheGlobalMail)
- The Strongest Man in the World. A new era of strength competitions tests the limits of the human body. (TheNewYorker)
- Was the Financial Crisis a Male Syndrome? (Businessweek)
- Why I Rarely Short Anymore. (UpsideTrader)
- Amazon ‘Robo-Pricing’ Sparks Fears. (FT)
- Is the Postal Service About to Default on Its Bills? (Wall Street Journal)
- The Scam Wall Street Learned From the Mafia. How America's biggest banks took part in a nationwide bid-rigging conspiracy. (RollingStone)
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David Stendahl Interviewed on Traders.com
Traders.com is a great resource for technical traders, and so is their Technical Analysis of Stock & Commodities Magazine.
Our Portfolio Manager, David Stendahl, was recently featured in the August 2012 issue. In the interview he describes some of the processes by which Capitalogix creates diversified portfolios.
David discusses the systems design process and how trading styles, across multiple time frames, complete with stop management are applied to variety of global futures markets.
He then describes how Capitalogix combines these systems into baskets (which are specialized mini-portfolios) using techniques liked fixed fractional and ratio level position sizing algorithms.
The interview ends with a description on how the baskets get allocated properly using Optimal Weight, Minimum Variance or Risk Parity allocation formulas to form the final trading portfolio.
As a trader, you are likely to find something interesting in Technical Analysis of Stock & Commodities Magazine.
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Here Are Some Interesting Links to Read This Weekend
Sometimes, seemingly simple tasks are harder than they should be. Thought this was an interesting graphic. Go ahead, count the black dots.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
- How Hard Are You Willing to Push Yourself? (Harvard Business Review)
- What Makes Bad Writing? Hard to define, but we know it when we see it. (WSJ)
- Why Today’s Tablets Don’t Really Matter. (Economist)
- CyberCriminals Sniff-Out Vulnerable Firms – Video. (Wall Street Journal)
- Why Surveillance Cameras Could Make Us Better People. (TheAtlantic)
- 'You Didn't Build That …' More on Obama’s burst of ideological rhetoric. (WSJ)
- Three Central Banks Act to Stimulate More Borrowing. (NYTimes)
- The Incredible Shrinking American Government. 169K Jobs Gone in a Year (Atlantic)
- 10 Signs of Economic Trouble That China’s Official Data Won’t Tell. (AlsoSprach)
- What If Speed Traders Competed on Price? (Businessweek)
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The S&P 500 Index is Entering a Seasonally Weak Period
The S&P 500 Index is entering a seasonally weak period. The chart below shows the predicted turning points based on the past five years of historical data.
History does not typically repeat itself, exactly; but it often rhymes. So, it makes sense to keep seasonal tendencies in mind. With that said, some things potentially different this year include that this is an election year and world governments are coordinating central bank stimulus actions.
However, the chart below should serve as a reminder that there a lot other markets worth trading too. For starters, Soybeans are up 45.25% so far this year.
The chart shows the top-ten performing markets, ranked by yearly performance, for the past few years. The data is color coded based on sector. The first column posts the current year's open performance followed by six columns of closed yearly market performance.

Note how much diversification there has been in the top-ten throughout the years. Click the chart to see an expanded version of this data (showing 40 global futures markets).That is the funny thing about markets … something is always working. The trick is finding it while it's working.
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212° – The Extra Degree (a motivational video)
Too many times, a brainstorming session to figure-out how to do something turns into a discussion about how or why it can't be done.
Here's to getting it done anyway!
Sometimes a little extra is all it takes.
It's the extra degree of effort that often separates the good from the great.
For example, at 211°, water is hot. At 212°, it boils.
The one extra degree makes the difference. It's that extra degree that can power a locomotive.
This simple analogy reflects the ultimate definition of excellence. Because it's the one extra degree of effort, in business and life, that can separate the good from the great.
Here is a video.
It is from Mac Anderson's Simple Truths. I'm a fan of their work, which takes a simple idea and presents it in a memorable way … with lots of great quotes and stories to illustrate the concept even better.
Yes, they have an iPhone/iPad app.
It's your life … You are responsible for your results. It's time to turn up the heat! Are you content with just being pretty good? Or are you ready to go the extra degree?
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Here is a Comparison of Global Markets’ Performance So Far This Year
The world has faced tough conditions so far this year … and yet somehow the major indices have held-up reasonably well.
In addition, the up-coming election will impact markets. Clearly, the Democrats would love to see a rally. In contrast, I've heard Republican CEOs admit that they are consciously casting doubt on the economy.
Despite the onslaught of scary news stories and political maneuverings, the S&P 500 managed to gain approximately 7% in the first half of this year. Pretty impressive considering …
So, how does that compare to other markets around the world? Here is an interactive chart to answer that question.
In the first half of the year, Germany's DAX and India's BSE Sensex did quite well. Meanwhile, France's CAC and London's FTSE were relatively flat … while Canada, Brazil, and Spain haven't kept up.
According to Business Insider, Venezuela had the biggest percentage gain (115%) while Cyprus had the biggest loss (-52%). Not surprisingly, smaller European nations clutter the bottom of the list.
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Some Links for Your Weekend Reading
China won the first Olympic gold … by manufacturing uniforms.
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
- Patent Trawler Aims to Predict Next Hot Technologies. (NewScientist)
- The 10 Things Economics Can Tell Us About Happiness. (TheAtlantic)
- In Age of Twitter, NBC Rewrites Olympic Playbook. (Wall Street Journal)
- Salt, We Misjudged You. We Only Think We Know the Truth About Salt. (NYTimes)
- 'Sterilization Team' Cleans Away Madonna's DNA. Here's a diva demand you probably haven't heard before … (Newser)
- Top 100 Respected Companies, Ranked By Investors. Apple is No. 1 (LATimes)
- Frenemies: Small Retailers Forced to Compete with Amazon on Amazon. (WSJ)
- Investors Cast Doubt on End-of-World Hedge Strategies. (Reuters)
- The Choice in 2012: Social Darwinism or a Decent Society? (RobertReich)
- Wealth Funds Step Up Their Activities. Sovereign wealth funds are becoming more active. They made investments worth 42 percent more in 2011 than in 2010. (FT)
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Socrates’ Triple Filter Test and the Modern World
Small distinctions separate wise men from fools. Perhaps one of them has to do with what the wise man deems important.
In ancient Greece, Socrates was reputed to hold knowledge in high esteem. One day an acquaintance met the great philosopher and said, "Do you know what I just heard about your friend?"
"Hold on a minute," Socrates replied. "Before telling me anything, I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Triple Filter Test."
"Triple filter?"
"That's right," Socrates continued. "Before you talk to me about my friend, it might be a good idea to take a moment and filter what you're going to say. That's why I call it the triple filter test.
The first filter is Truth. Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?"
"No," the man said, "Actually I just heard about it and…"
"All right," said Socrates. "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second filter, the filter of Goodness. Is what you are about to tell me about my friend something good?"
"No, on the contrary…"
"So," Socrates continued, "You want to tell me something bad about him, but you're not certain it's true. You may still pass the test though, because there's one filter left. The third filter is Usefulness. Is what you want to tell me about my friend going to be useful to me?"
"No, not really."
"Well," concluded Socrates, "If what you want to tell me is neither true, nor good, nor even useful … then why tell it to me at all?"
How Does That Apply to Me or Trading?
The concept of Socrates' Triple Filter applies to trading as well.As a technical trader, rather than looking at fundamental data and scouring the news daily, I focus on developing dynamic and adaptive systems and processes to look at the universe of trading algorithms to identify which are in-phase and likely to perform well in the current market environment.
One of the arguments in favor of technical analysis is that fundamental data, news, and sentiment are already built-in to the chart.
Filter Out What Isn't Good For You.
In contrast, there are too many ways that the media (meaning the techniques, graphics, music, etc.), the people reporting it, and even the news itself, appeals to the fear and greed of human nature.This is the main reason that I don't watch CNBC during the trading day. Even though I like it on several levels … I don't think it helps me. So I filter it and get the news in other ways.
Likewise, I don't watch TV news anymore either. It seems like story after story is about terrible things. For example during a recent visit with my mother, I listened to her watch the news. There was a constant stream of "oh no," or "oh my," and "that's terrible". You don't even have to watch the news to know what it says.
Focus On What You Want.Instead, I get the news I need a different way that is more efficient and productive for me. I subscribe to certain things via e-mail, and other things via RSS feeds. Then I supplement those with a series of search services that alert me to items that match the criteria I set. An example would be Google Alerts. Two other nice alert services are from the Financial Times and the New York Times. Recently I've also been using two great iPad apps – one is called Flipboard, the other is called Zite.
Check them out. It will save you a lot of time and effort.
Personally, I care about the source of my news. It helps me identify and account for potential bias. So using subscriptions, feed readers, and alert services help here too.
Another reason I like these tools is that I can use different filters for different purposes.
What's The Purpose Of News For You?
My purpose changes what I'm looking for and the amount of attention I pay to different types of information. Am I reading or watching the news for entertainment, to learn something new, or to find something relevant and actionable?
Getting back to Socrates' three filters and the business of trading, I ask might: is it important, does it affect our edge, or can I use it as a catalyst for innovation?
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What is Libor and Why Should You Care?
So, you heard that Barclays was accused of fixing Libor rates.
What is Libor and Why Should You Care?
Barclays was fined $450 million and its chief operating officer, CEO, and Chairman all resigned.
It looks like this scandal is about to get bigger. In the meantime, here is a spoof of a recent Barclays ad.















