Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Capturing Gold

    The Olympics have officially concluded.  For many, it was the ultimate display of the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.  For others, it's a way to boast about their country's medal count.  If you're curious, here are the final medal standings.

    One of the most captivating moments occurred in the men's 100-meter sprint.  It made me reflect on how years of preparation can come down to a few thousandths of a second determining the difference between Gold, Silver, and Bronze — or virtual irrelevance.

    Last week, Noah Lyles broke a 20-year U.S. drought in the men's 100m final, winning gold with a 9.784 time.

    Lyles came into the race ranked No. 1 in the world, but he had to run his fastest time ever to win the Olympic gold medal, and he did so by the slimmest of margins — 0.005 seconds.

    In that race, Lyles achieved an average speed of 25.7 mph, and his max speed hit 27.84 mph.

    Surprisingly, Lyles didn't lead the race until the final and most important moment.  Many thought that Jamaica's Kishane Thompson had the gold … but advanced technology showed that Lyles surged ahead in the final stretch, edging Thompson out by a split second to claim victory.  Here is the photo finish.

     

    Noah Lyles

    via ESPN

    It took over half a minute (much longer than the race itself) for the judges to announce the winner – it was that close. 

    As a tech nerd, what I found most interesting about the win was the camera used to certify the win. 

    Omega, which has been the official Olympics timekeeper for decades, released a new camera that shoots 40,000 frames per second, aimed directly at the finish line.

    It reminded me of the facial recognition technology NFL teams like the Dallas Cowboys use to track – theoretically – every person who steps into a stadium.  The cameras are so good that when a crime is committed, they can completely track the perpetrator as they travel throughout the stadium.  The Cowboys' security office boasts that their camera system surpasses even the ones used by Las Vegas casinos to catch cheaters at the gaming tables.  However, it seems like Omega has taken things to a whole new level at the Olympics with its advanced camera technology this year.

    Many think the 200m race is Lyles' specialty.  His personal best of 19.31 seconds in the 200m is the American record, making him the third fastest in the event.

    Unfortunately, Lyles couldn't grasp gold in the 200.  He got Bronze instead.  However, after the race, he revealed that he ran the race with COVID … which might explain his drop in performance.  Still, it stands as a testament of will to me.

    As a side note, while the International Olympic Committee does not pay athletes for winning at the Olympics, many countries do!

     

    Howmuchforthegold

    via Voronai

    While the U.S. isn't near the top of the list – American athletes who get gold bring home $37,500.  A silver nets you $22,500, and a bronze nets you $15,000. 

    Of course, these medals can also lead to other compensation and endorsements – but the payout table was still interesting.

    The achievements of athletes like Noah Lyles create national pride and open doors to numerous opportunities and rewards.

    Meanwhile, the integration of advanced technology in the Olympics highlights the importance of innovation in sports.  As we celebrate these victories, we also look forward to the future advancements that will continue to shape the world of athletics and the world itself.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – August 11th, 2024

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • The Most Common Pin Codes

    There are 10,000 possible combinations in a 4-digit numeric PIN code.  Out of those, which is the least commonly used?  Which pin code is the least predictable, and which is the most predictable?

    Nick Berry sought answers from the data from released/exposed password tables and security breaches.  

     

    IIB-Pin-Numbers-1276@2x-1

    DataGenetics via InformationIsBeautiful

    You guessed it … the most common PIN code is 1234.  Unfortunately, that choice accounts for about 11% of all pin codes based on the 3.4 million data points evaluated.  After that, 1111 represents 6% of the population, 0000 2% of the population, followed by several other less popular answers.  The top 10 include 1212, 7777, 1004, 2000, 4444, 2222, and 6969.

    I share these examples mostly to say that if you use one of those codes … change it. 

    You should also change your pin code if you use your birth date or anniversary year as your pin.

    I won't share the least popular PIN codes, as I assume they'll also get added to a hacker's potential key list. 

    Practicality aside, Nick Berry's article is fascinating if data and analytics interest you. 

    As a reminder, the greatest weakness in your data, your business's data, and the data of your loved ones … is you. 

    As for passwords … I recommend not knowing them.  You can't disclose what you don't know.  Consequently, I recommend a password manager like LastPass, Dashlane, or 1Password.

    Some other basic tips include: 

    • Keep all of your software up to date (to avoid extra vulnerabilities).
    • Don't use public wifi if you can help it (and use a VPN if you can't).
    • Have a firewall on your computer and a backup of all your important data.
    • Never share your personal information on an e-mail or a call that you did not initiate – if they legitimately need your information, you can call them.
    • Don't trust strangers on the internet (no, a Nigerian Prince does not want to send you money).
    • And, turn on 2-factor authentication … even if it's annoying.

    How many cybersecurity measures you take comes down to two simple questions … First, how much pain and hassle are you willing to deal with to protect your data?  And, second, how much pain is a hacker willing to go through to get to your data?

    It doesn't make sense to put all your data in a lockbox computer that never connects to a network … nevertheless, it might be worth it to go to that extreme for pieces of your data.

    Think about what the data is worth to you, or someone else, and protect it accordingly.

  • The 2.9 Trillion Dollar Drop

    Last Friday was the stock market’s worst day since COVID. 

    The media says weak job reports and recessionary fears fueled it.  Geopolitics might have played a part, too.

    Over 2.9 Trillion Dollars got wiped out. 

    To visualize what happened, here is a market heatmap of the S&P 500 index stocks categorized by sectors and industries.  Size represents market cap.  There was very little green in a sea of red.

     

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    via FinViz

    Last year, I asked if we would see a recession in 2024?  Here is an excerpt from that post:

     

    I want to remind people that the U.S. is resilient, and it seems like public sentiment is moving in a positive direction. 

    That said, 84% of CEOs and 69% of consumers think we're headed toward a recession. Meanwhile, the Fed is positive we won't … and banks are almost positive we won't. 

    It seems like they know something we don't … or maybe vice versa. 

    To lend some credence to the bullish sentiment, consumer spending is still high despite inflation and interest rates. In addition, Retailers are still posting solid earnings.

    Unfortunately, we're increasingly seeing consumers resort to borrowing (including short-term lending options) to pay for goods. Household debt has hit a record high of $17 trillion in March.

    — Are We Going To See A Recession In 2024?, October 2023

    Yes, last week was potentially alarming.  Even the ordinarily resilient tech giants took a hit. 

    With the unemployment rate reaching 4.3% in July, the three-month moving average is at least 0.5 percentage points above the minimum of the previous 12 months’ averages.  This triggers the Sahm rule, which supposedly signals a recession.  According to the rule, reaching the 0.5% threshold indicates a recession.  When the jobless rate rises quickly, it suggests the economy is slumping.

    But, even the inventor of the rule, Claudia Sahm, says the doomsday narrative may be overblown. 

    I’m not here to tell you that everything is sunshine and roses, but I am here to remind you that no indicator exists in a vacuum.  While the negative performance is real, household income is still growing, and consumer spending and business investment remain resilient.

    Not to mention that with graduation, there’s a massive increase in the workforce, which also impacts the numbers. 

    Recessions can build slowly – but come quickly – but as they build, there is time to react … and even better – there is time to not ‘react’ but ‘respond’. 

    AI will likely impact the workforce, business, and eventually … the economy. 

    I’ve learned that the market often feels random because you can’t predict events like global pandemics, threats, assassinations, or cybersecurity outages.

    Over time, I’ve focussed less on guessing what will happen and more on responding faster and better to what happens.

    With that said, I do have an opinion here.  It’s an election year, and I suspect the government will push every button and pull every lever to boost the market leading into November.  Even though markets and the economy are not the same thing, many voters believe they are.  So, I would say this correction is perfectly timed … and I anticipate a steady ramp-up so that people feel as good as possible about the economy when they vote.

    What do you think is going to happen?

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – August 4th, 2024

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

     

  • Remembering My Father On His Birthday

    🎶 Happy Birthday to You, Happy Birthday to You, Happy Birthday Dear Daddy, Happy Birthday to You! 🎶

    August 2nd was my father’s birthday.  He would have been 85. 

    He passed away in 1999, so it’s been over 24 years.  That’s hard for me to believe.

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    It Didn’t Have to Happen That Way

    My father died early because he had cancer that wasn’t diagnosed until it was too late.

    He died when he was around my age … which is crazy to think about.  It’s even crazier to think that he probably would still be alive if he had gotten sick today. 

    Technology, longevity, and healthcare have come so far since then. 

    Memories of My Father

    The truth is, I don’t remember his voice anymore.  I should pull out a video to hear it again because I’m sure I do remember it somewhere deep down.

    It makes me sad that I can’t recall it easily.

    I don’t remember his voice, and I can’t remember as many of our conversations.

    Still, I remember his hug, his smell, and most importantly, how he made me (and everyone else) feel.

    My dad was larger than life, and he was also my best friend.

    He wasn’t a perfect man, but he was a great family man and a leader in the community, and he spread joy every chance he got.

    He was incredibly loving … yet he was also incredibly demanding.

    When my children were growing up, I taught them that when we saw a particularly beautiful sky or rainbow, he was watching down over us. 

    He also loved Italian Ice, or, as we called it at the Jersey Shore, Water Ice.  On his birthday, we all try to have some Italian Ice in his memory.  This year, we also did a video chat with my mom and sisters.  It is nice to remember!

    Work and play – Big and small … I fondly remember our time together.

     

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    I love that he’s remembered so actively … but I remember a little less of the specifics every year. 

    He Made Me This Way

    I’m amazed at how much more like him I become every day.

    He was smart and heart-centered.  Really, I should say he was heart-centered and smart.

    I’m more analytical (which I got from my mother), but deep down, I’m still a teddy bear.

    Some people think I’m a teddy bear with claws … which I also got from my mother.

    Remembrance

    They say a person dies twice: once when they stop breathing, and again when they are forgotten.

    I certainly remember my father, and I know many others do as well.

    Who are some of the people you remember?  If they are still around, have you talked to them recently?

    Long after the specifics fade … they’ll remember how you made them feel.

    Who deserves a little of your attention?

  • Thoughts From a Birthday Weekend

    I had a birthday this weekend.

    I can’t believe how time flies.  Birthdays seem to come more quickly as you get older.

    It makes sense, though, I suppose.  When you were four, a birthday represented a quarter of your life.  Now, a year represents a much smaller percentage.

    While it’s not always pleasant getting older, it sure beats the alternative.

    This year, I made a concerted effort to make strides toward being healthier, fit, and vital in mind, body, and spirit. 

    If you are going to live longer, your future has to be compelling.  I always strive to make my future bigger than my past.  

    This year, my birthday came after a string of long and hard days.  So, it was especially nice to take some time to relax and reflect.

    In general, I work hard, but smart.  I don’t often get anxious.  I just relentlessly pursue my goals.  It is a recipe that works for me.

    Resilience and determination are certainly worth celebrating … but they aren’t the only strategies worth pursuing. 

    I recognize that energy is important too – It is the fuel for doing and becoming.  You can get some from doing well … but sometimes you need to get some from doing less or controlling your focus.  

    As a result, this weekend, I focused on rest and recovery (with a nice dose of appreciation, gratitude, and reflection about friends and family who share the journey with me). 

    Flow State

    On one hand, I’m proud of myself for doing what I’m supposed to do – finding ways to gain traction and momentum, letting small wins today set up bigger wins tomorrow, and laying the groundwork for the next level of future success.  But I’m also reminded that when you’re in flow, the biggest outcomes don’t seem to require the biggest effort.  Instead, achieving great results can feel surprisingly easy and natural.  It’s as if when things click into place, success becomes almost effortless.  This is a powerful reminder that sometimes, it’s not about pushing harder but finding that sweet spot where your skills and passions align, and a small shift can have a big impact.

    Mindset Matters … And So Do Habits!

    It’s crucial to take a day to relax and celebrate after a challenging and significant stretch.

    I also feel it is important to make the time and effort to feel things like “Happy Birthday!” 🎂

    I have a birthday ritual.  We go to Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse and celebrate there.  It’s interesting because it’s become a location-and-event-based trigger reminding me to celebrate.  Even the act of reserving this restaurant for a special occasion creates a powerful association that starts the celebration process.

    IMG_3706

    Even though I really like the restaurant, I don’t go there for everyday dinners.  I reserve it for celebrations so that it stays “pure” and “special” in my mind.  It’s the same reason you’re not supposed to lounge around all day or work in bed – your body forgets that the bed is meant for sleep. 

    I use other location and activity triggers as well.  Think about where they might help you?  For example, walking in from the garage to your home, or into your bedroom.  You could also trigger a particular response when you hold your partner's hand or kiss them goodbye.  There are many places where you can apply this technique.

    If you think about it, we don’t necessarily “have” emotions – we “do” them.  It’s the same with celebration.  It’s both a noun and a verb.  It’s something in and of itself, but it also is something you do.  In a sense, “having” and “doing” go together and feed off each other to create more of what you want.

    What Are Your Rituals and Traditions?

    The connection you make between a ritual and the emotions you want is powerful and can help you fully immerse yourself in the feelings you desire.

    Recognize that you can create what you want rather than searching for it, chasing it, or waiting for it to happen.  This perspective can produce profound insights.

    What are some things that are also actions for you … with having and doing being intertwined and reinforcing each other to create more of what you desire?

    It’s a reminder to be intentional about creating and maintaining rituals, traditions, and habits that foster joy, appreciation, and a sense of accomplishment.

    May your days be filled with joy and fulfillment, and may the coming year bring you many reasons to celebrate! 🎉

  • The Power Of Assessments

    Over the years, I've used a number of different assessment tests on myself and our team. It's a great way to help people better understand each other and the various forms of communication and problem-solving styles we use.

    Here are several of the tests that have proven themselves time and again:

    1. Kolbe measures how individuals naturally approach problem-solving and execute tasks when free to be themselves.
    2. Predictive Index (PI) – helps organizations make data-driven, objective hiring decisions by providing insights into a candidate's personality traits and cognitive abilities in relation to their perceived role.
    3. StrengthsFinder: helps people discover their natural talents and develop them into strengths they can leverage for personal and professional success.

    On top of these, it's always fun to see what else is available and how it might provide new and useful insights. 

    For example, Ray Dalio recently created a personality assessment called PrinciplesYou that you can take for free. This tool breaks down personality traits into three areas: how you think, engage with others, and apply yourself. I've seen several articles praising PriciplesYou and its insights.

    Less meaningful, perhaps (but still fun), I also found a website called Human Benchmark that lets you test your performance on various reaction and memory tests. I'm unsure how scientific it is, but it was an interesting use of 10 minutes nonetheless. Here are my son's results from that one.

    Image-2via Human Benchmark

    Progress starts by telling the truth … most often to yourself.  

    What assessments have you found particularly helpful?

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – July 28th, 2024

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Lessons From The CrowdStrike Outage …

    Last Friday, CrowdStrike experienced a significant issue with a content update for its Falcon sensor on Windows hosts, causing widespread IT outages affecting customers worldwide, including airlines, banks, shops, and broadcasters.
     
    This outage dominated the news. Here are links to stories from Google and Bing search.
     
    Surprisingly, I didn't hear about this until one of my employees told me. But that is probably because I use a Mac – and the outage didn't affect me.
     
    So, when my son decided we should write an article about it … I asked Perplexity.AI, "Can you explain the issue with CrowdStrike?" 

    Perplexity is an AI chatbot-powered research and conversational search engine that answers queries using natural language predictive text. I've been quite impressed with it. If you haven't tried it yet, I highly recommend checking it out.

    Here is an excerpt of what it told me about the incident:
     
    Character of the problem:
    • A defect was found in a single content update for CrowdStrike's Falcon sensor on Windows hosts.
    • This caused Windows machines to crash, resulting in a "blue screen of death" (BSOD) and getting stuck in a restarting state.
    Scope of the impact:
    • Only Windows hosts were affected; Mac and Linux systems were not impacted.
    • The issue affected various organizations globally, including banks, airlines, and other businesses.
    CrowdStrike's response:
    • The company quickly identified and isolated the issue.
    • A fix was deployed, and the problematic update was pulled.
    • CrowdStrike is actively working with affected customers to resolve the problem.
    Important clarifications:
    • This was not a security incident or cyberattack.

    Click here to see the whole perplexity.ai response.

    The scope of the outage was surprising. 

    United, American, and Delta all called complete ground stops. Microsoft was hit. Public displays around the world showed the blue screen of death. 

    All because CrowdStrike pushed a global update. That patch caused every computer with CrowdStrike to crash. Even worse, these computers can only be fixed in person by an IT professional. Because it involves a Blue Screen of Death, IT can't just remote in to fix it.  

    It's probably the largest outage in history and has caused untold damage. It affected emergency services in some states and countries. 

    Even after a patch is issued, it may take days for things to return to normal, as each endpoint requires individual attention, and some systems might have suffered complete failures.

    Dependency_2x

    via XKCD

    It's a healthy reminder that our 'robust' infrastructure isn't always so robust … and that tech consolidation and concentration can have consequences.

    While there are a seemingly infinite number of tech companies now, the infrastructure has consolidated into the hands of very few. We need to think about our digital resilience, not just in the systems we run, but in the globally connected systems and in the growing Internet of Things. 

    Does your business have all of its eggs in one basket? Does it have failsafes in case of an emergency?

    As I observe the growing adoption of AI, I notice that people tend to emphasize its capabilities over its potential failures. In our increasingly interconnected and automated world, ensuring business continuity is more crucial than ever.