Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • The New AI Advantage: Context Reigns King

    For the past two years, “prompt engineering” has been treated as the defining AI skill. There were endless guides on magic phrases, secret prompt structures, and elaborate templates that promised dramatically better results.

    In the early days, they often made a meaningful difference. They were the differentiator. They’re still an important part of my framework around AI.

    But the landscape and the models have changed.

    Today’s frontier models are remarkably good at understanding intent. Give them a reasonable request, and they’ll often infer the structure, ask clarifying questions, or even build the framework themselves. A prompt that once required a page of careful instructions can now be written in a sentence or two with surprisingly similar results.

    Prompt engineering still matters. Good communication will always matter. But it’s no longer where the biggest advantage lies.

    The new advantage is context.

    From Better Prompts to Better Systems

    The organizations getting the most value from AI aren’t necessarily writing better prompts. They’re building better systems or ecosystems.

    They’ve documented their business. They’ve organized institutional knowledge. They’ve defined their voice, customers, products, and decision-making frameworks. They’ve connected their AI to the information that actually matters … and only what matters.

    In other words, they’ve spent months building an ecosystem instead of minutes writing a prompt.

    A company that’s actually done this has a living record of who owns which decision, a memory of why past calls were made and what happened afterward, and a standing way to tell its AI “here’s what’s changed since you last looked.”

    A Recipe For Slop

    The absence of that information and context is why so much AI-generated content still feels generic, and you see those artifacts of AI-construction.

    It’s not because the models aren’t capable. It’s because they’re operating without context — their defaults come from the sum of the internet’s knowledge, not your organization’s actual preferences.

    When an AI knows nothing about your company, your customers, your history, your goals, or your standards, it fills in the gaps with averages. It sounds like everyone else because, statistically speaking, everyone else is all it knows.

    That’s where the telltale AI signs come from: generic introductions, predictable transitions, vague conclusions, and writing that feels polished but somehow empty. The model isn’t being lazy. It’s doing exactly what it should with incomplete information.

    Think about hiring a new employee.

    You could hire the smartest person in the world. Still, if you sat them at a desk with no onboarding, no documentation, no understanding of your customers, no explanation of your culture, and no access to the institutional knowledge your team has built over the years, you wouldn’t expect exceptional work on day one. You’d expect educated guesses.

    AI is the same.

    A clever prompt might take five minutes to create.

    Someone else can copy it in five seconds.

    They can reverse engineer it, ask another AI to improve it, or find dozens of versions online. Prompts have become increasingly commoditized.

    Context isn’t.

    Context is months of documentation. It’s years of accumulated knowledge. It’s your operating procedures, meeting notes, customer conversations, product documentation, brand standards, strategy papers, and the thousands of small decisions that make your organization unique.

    No two companies will build exactly the same context.

    That’s why context has become a competitive moat.

    Perhaps the word “moat” overclaims slightly. A moat is static — dig it once, it defends forever. What the piece actually describes is closer to a flywheel that decays if you stop turning it. Institutional knowledge rots the same way any documentation rots if nobody keeps it current.

    Context has to be maintained, not just accumulated.

    The Next Competitive Divide

    The gap today isn’t simply between companies that use AI and those that don’t.

    It’s between organizations that have methodically onboarded AI into their businesses — creating systems where intelligent agents understand the company almost like a new employee—and organizations that are still opening a chatbot and typing random questions into a blank text box.

    Those companies are technically using the same technology.

    They’re just not getting the same results.

    Twenty years ago, the differentiator might have been whether your business had a website. Ten years ago, until recently, it was social media presence … then social authority and podcasts. Recently, it was whether you had AI at all. Increasingly, that won’t be enough. The companies that pull ahead will be the ones that invest in building an AI ecosystem: one where knowledge is captured, context is preserved, and intelligent agents are equipped with the same information your best employees rely on every day.

    The next phase of AI won’t be won by whoever writes the cleverest prompt. It will be won by whoever builds the best-informed systems.

    Start with the one thing your best person knows that’s never been written down.

    Onwards!

  • Data As A Commodity in the Age of AI

    As AI becomes more entrenched, data is becoming more important – not less.

    Data is the fastest-growing commodity, and is today’s “wild west” and the battlefield of today’s tech titans. We talk about AI as the new gold rush, but data is the commodity everyone is mining—and the real advantage comes from how you refine it, not just how much you collect.

    At the beginning of 2020, the number of bytes in the digital universe was already 40X greater than the number of stars in the observable universe.

    According to IDC, the volume of data stored globally is doubling roughly every four years — from 33 zettabytes in 2018 toward a projected 175 zettabytes by 2025.

    A staggering 402 million terabytes of data are created daily, which means around 130 zettabytes of data will be generated this year. But those numbers are vastly understated because AI and agents are poised to create and consume data on a scale we’ve never seen before.

    Video is still growing rapidly, and so is IoT, with about 14% annual growth. There are now over 21.1 billion connected devices. Of course, AI is driving growth even higher.

    AlphabetAmazonAppleFacebook, and Microsoft all have unprecedented amounts of data (and power). And the new generation of giants like OpenAI and Anthropic (along with current trends in generative AI content creation, LLM usage, data center growth, etc.) tip the scales further towards almost unimaginable quantities of data, knowledge, and insights.

    Rapid growth means little time to create adequate rules (or tools). Everyone’s jumping to own more data than the next person and to protect it from prying eyes.

    Collecting basic data and using basic analytics were enough … but not anymore. The game is changing. 

    For example, traders used to focus on price data … but there has been an influx of firms using alternative data sets and making extraordinary investments in hardware and software to find an edge. If you’re using the same data sources as your competitors and competing on the same set of beliefs, it’s hard to find a sustainable edge. 

    Understanding the game others are playing (and its rules) is important. However, that’s only table stakes.

    Figuring out where you can find extra insight — or where you can make the invisible visible — is what actually separates you from the field. But like the flywheel this week’s other piece [link] describes, it’s a separation you have to keep re-earning, not something you bank once.

    Here is a quick high-level video recorded back in 2019 on data as fuel for your business — it holds up remarkably well. Check it out.

    It is interesting to think about what’s driving the new world (of trading, technology, AI, etc.), which often involves identifying what drove the old world.

    History has a way of repeating itself. Even when it doesn’t repeat itself, it often rhymes.

    With that said, the key to unlocking the pathway to the new world often comes from a new or alternative data set that lets you approach the problem, challenge, or opportunity from a different perspective.

    Before e-mails, fax machines were amazing. Before cars, people were happy with horses and buggies. Now, let’s talk about how technological improvements like dashboards and reporting seem old-world compared to firms that use data to re-architect their business models, create whole new opportunities … or even new industries.

    These comparisons help explain the importance of data in today’s new-world economics.

    New World Economics Data Is A Precious Commodity_GapingVoid

    via gapingvoid

    Data as the New Oil

    You’ve heard “data is the new oil” before — it’s been the opening line of tech keynotes for over a decade. Clichés survive because something true is under them. Worth pushing on where this one holds and where it breaks.

    Petroleum has played a pivotal role in human advancement since the Industrial Revolution. It fueled (and still fuels) our creativity, technology advancements, and a variety of derivative byproducts. There are direct competitors to fossil fuels gaining steam, but I think it’s more interesting to compare petroleum to data because of their parallels in their effects on innovation.

    Pumping crude oil out of the ground and transforming it into a finished product is not a simple process. Yet, it is relatively easy for someone to understand the process at a high level. You have to locate a reservoir, drill, capture the resource, and then refine it to the desired product – heating oil, gasoline, asphalt, plastics, etc. 

    We discussed this in the video, thinking through what actually makes data usable:

    You’ve got to figure out what data you might have, how it might be useful, you have to figure out how to refine it, clean it, fix it, curate it, transform it into something useful, and then how to deliver it to the people that need it in their business. And even if you’ve done this, you then have to make people aware that it’s there, that it’s changing, or how they might use it. For people who do it well, it’s an incredible edge. – Howard Getson

    In a sense, data fuels the information economy much like oil fuels the industrial economy. The amount of power someone has can be correlated to their control of and access to these resources. Likewise, things that diminish or constrain access or use of these resources can lead to extreme consequences.

    Why Data Is Better Than Oil

    The analogy works, but it’s just that, an analogy, and the more you analyze it, the more it falls apart. Unlike the finite resource that is oil, data is all around us and increasing at an exponential rate, so the game is a little different:

    • Data is a renewable resource. It’s durable, it’s reusable, and it’s being produced faster than we can process it.
    • Because it’s not a scarce resource, there’s no need to hoard it – you can use it, transform it, and share it, knowing it won’t diminish.
    • Data becomes more valuable the more you use it.
    • As the world’s oil reserves dwindle, and renewable resources grow in popularity and effectiveness, the relative value of oil drops. It’s unlikely that will happen to data.
    • Also, while data transport is important, it’s not expensive the way it was with oil. Here is an example difference that dramatically changes the implications… Data can be transported, replicated, and transformed at light speed.

    The cheapest crude you’ll ever refine is the data you’re already generating and throwing away.

    Another high-value data concept is that alternative data gives traders an advantage, but it doesn’t always require confidential or hard-to-find information.

    For example, Traders now have access to vast amounts of structured and unstructured data. A significant source that many overlook is the data produced through their own process or the metadata from their own trades or transactions.

    The video highlights a prediction about where this goes next:

    In the very near future, I expect these systems to be able to go out and search for different sources of information. It’s almost like the algorithm becomes an omnivore. Instead of simply looking at market data or transactional data, or even metadata, it starts to look for connections or feedback loops that are profitable in sources of data that the human would never have thought of. – Howard Getson

    A word of caution: there are two common mistakes people make when making data-driven decisions.

    First, people often become slaves to the data, losing sight of the bigger picture. It’s a mistake that’s become even more common in the age of AI. Both data and AI are extraordinary tools, but neither should replace critical thinking, experience, or judgment. AI can summarize, analyze, and recommend at incredible speed, but it still requires humans to ask the right questions, validate the answers, and decide what truly matters.

    Second, even the most sophisticated models can’t predict black swan events. AI excels at identifying patterns in what has happened before, but history doesn’t always repeat itself. The unexpected still happens. Resilience, adaptability, and preparation remain just as important as prediction.

    The future of data has never been brighter, but the challenges have grown just as quickly. Privacy concerns, data ownership, misinformation, and synthetic content are no longer theoretical debates—they’re everyday realities. Likewise, AI has dramatically lowered the cost of creating convincing text, images, audio, and video, making it easier than ever to blur the line between fact and fiction. At the same time, organizations are collecting and generating more information than ever before, making the ability to distinguish signal from noise one of the defining skills of the modern era. And all that doesn’t begin to unpack the risks from data quality, model risk, and how to know when you’re approaching the point of diminishing returns.

    I believe one of the greatest challenges facing our youth—and, increasingly, all of us—isn’t a lack of information. It’s an overabundance of it.

    No previous generation has had access to this much knowledge, or been bombarded by this much content. Ironically, more information doesn’t always produce greater understanding. Algorithms reward engagement over nuance. Headlines replace deep reading. AI can generate answers in seconds, but it can also create the illusion of expertise without the substance to back it up. The bottleneck is no longer access to information; it’s discernment.

    The winners won’t simply be the people or organizations with the most data or the most powerful AI. They’ll be the ones who know what information to trust, what to ignore, and how to systematically combine technology with sound judgment.

    In an age when intelligence is increasingly abundant, wisdom becomes increasingly scarce.

    The question is no longer how to collect more data.

    It’s how to use it without becoming a victim of it.

  • 250 Years … Happy Fourth of July!

    Happy 250th Birthday, America.

    Two hundred and fifty years old… and honestly, we still look pretty good for our age.

    Like anyone who’s made it this far, we’ve got our scars. We’ve had seasons we’re proud of, and seasons we’d rather forget. We’ve stumbled, argued, rebuilt, and kept moving forward.

    There is still so much work to do. There always will be.

    But perspective matters. In the story of nations, 250 years is remarkably young. We’re still growing. Still learning. Still writing the next chapter.

    Maybe it’s a little amazing grace—or maybe just amazing luck—but I never want to take for granted how fortunate I am to call this country home. There’s something extraordinary about a place where millions of people from different backgrounds continue striving toward the same promise: that tomorrow can be better than today. An especially important lesson for entrepreneurs.

    Here’s to celebrating where we’ve been, appreciating what we have, and believing in what we can still become.

    Here’s a clip from Robin Williams showing us it’s always a good time to feel a bit of patriotism.

    Happy Independence Day.

    Hopefully, this day is a reminder to all that, despite our differences, we have a lot to be proud of.

  • A Look At the U.S. Via Charts

    While we celebrate America’s 250th birthday, I thought it would be fitting to take a look at a few recent charts on America in 2026. These charts reveal how concentrated our economic power has become, how heavily we rely on services economically, and how unevenly the world now views that strength.

    America’s $31 Trillion Economy By State

    via visualcapitalist

    We recently compared national GDPs and saw how dominant it was on the national stage, but what about the GDP of the individual states?

    California continues to have the largest state economy in the U.S., with a GDP of $4.3 trillion, accounting for nearly 14% of the national output. Currently, only six states surpass $1 trillion in annual economic activity, and collectively, these states account for nearly half of the U.S. economy.

    If California were an independent country, it would have the world’s fourth-largest economy. Beyond California, five other states have a GDP exceeding a trillion dollars as of 2025: Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, and Pennsylvania.

    Zooming out from where economic output is located to what actually drives it paints an even clearer picture of America’s strengths and vulnerabilities.

    America’s Economy By Industry

    via visualcapitalist

    Finance, real estate, insurance, rental, and leasing (this is considered one industry) led all industries at $6.8 trillion in output, accounting for more than one-fifth of the entire economy … and nothing else really came close.

    Professional services came in 2nd, and the rest are even further behind. Together, the top two sectors accounted for nearly 35% of all economic output, underscoring the growing importance of knowledge-based and service-oriented activities in the modern economy.

    If you really dive into the numbers, you realize nearly 73% of our country’s economy is service-based. That service bias is great for knowledge workers and asset‑light businesses but could leave us exposed when physical infrastructure, manufacturing, or supply chains become chokepoints.

    Of course, economic strength is only half the story. How the rest of the world sees that strength and sees our populace shapes the alliances and opportunities that follow.

    How The World Views Us

    via visualcapitalist

    Emerging economies such as Vietnam, India, and the Philippines have higher rankings than many Western nations. Israel and Nigeria top the list, with 83% of respondents expressing favorable views of America. Notably, nine of the ten lowest favorability ratings are from longtime U.S. allies in Europe and North America.

    High favorability in emerging economies suggests growing opportunities for trade and investment, even as skepticism among traditional allies complicates policy and capital flows in the near term.

    While America remains arguably the most influential country, it’s clear public opinion is changing and varies wildly.

    Trade disputes and rising political tensions have weighed heavily on America’s image among many of its traditional allies. So have the tariffs on Canada and Europe, criticism of NATO, and Trump’s other divisive decisions (who wants Greenland?)

    Interestingly, despite the back-and-forth between China and America, they rank higher than many of our long-term allies.

    Food For Thought

    Perhaps that’s the challenge of the moment. A nation can’t neglect its own foundation — strong finances, competitive industries, secure borders, and resilient supply chains are prerequisites for long-term prosperity.

    At the same time, America’s influence has always rested on more than the size of its economy. Our alliances, our reliability, and our ability to lead on the world stage have been strategic assets for generations. The most successful path forward is unlikely to be choosing one over the other, but rather finding a balance between strengthening our position at home and preserving the trust and partnerships that have amplified American leadership abroad.

    If we can do both, the next chapter of the American story may prove even stronger than the last.

    Onwards!

  • Understanding The Path of Innovation: Clusters

    We often talk about innovation at the level of nations and global trends. But innovation is fractal: the same patterns play out inside smaller regional ‘innovation clusters’—and those clusters can help you understand where the future is being built.

    Innovation clusters are geographic hubs where researchers, startups, investors, and established companies interact closely. They typically span multiple cities or even regions—so instead of ranking ‘San Francisco,’ the data looks at the broader Silicon Valley ecosystem, or the Research Triangle, rather than just Raleigh or Durham.

    Using data from the World Intellectual Property Organization’s (WIPO) Global Innovation Index 2025, Visual Capitalist ranked the world’s top innovation clusters based on scientific publications, international patent filings, and venture capital activity.

    via visualcapitalist

    China and the US dominate the rankings, while innovation hotspots in Japan, South Korea, Europe, and India also feature prominently.

    For context, Shenzhen–Hong Kong–Guangzhou ranks first globally, followed by Tokyo–Yokohama and Silicon Valley’s San Jose–San Francisco corridor.

    Interestingly, WIPO’s clusters often span multiple metropolitan areas and even national borders. They identify regions with dense concentrations of inventors and scientific authors, rather than relying on political boundaries. As a result, clusters often represent entire innovation ecosystems rather than individual cities.

    Innovation Breeds Innovation

    Innovation clusters develop as talent, capital, and institutions strengthen each other. Top research universities attract scientists, successful startups attract investors, and large tech companies open doors to commercialization. These benefits grow more significant over time.

    This dynamic explains why certain regions regularly lead in global innovation. Silicon Valley thrives due to top universities, robust venture capital, and an entrepreneurial culture. Likewise, China’s top clusters are bolstered by ongoing investments in research, advanced manufacturing, and technology commercialization.

    While the US still dominates, China is growing fast, and you can expect India and other emerging countries to join them. I also expect regions in Europe to decide they need to build an ecosystem like this, to avoid over-dependence on technology from sources they perceive as less stable or trustworthy than they originally believed.

    Like technology, you can expect the rate of innovation to increase exponentially. It’s never been easier to do more, better, and faster.

    Onwards!

  • A Look At 2026’s Biggest Unicorns

    The surge in funding for exponential technologies means billion-dollar startups are popping up everywhere.

    There’s even a word for it … PitchBook defines “Unicorns” as venture-backed companies valued at $1 billion or more after a funding round, until they go public, get acquired, or drop below that valuation.

    I remember when Unicorns had near-mythical status. Now, that designation is more common as AI firms dominate the top valuations, and innovation thrives globally.

    As I look at the list, some of the companies are better described as “decacorns”, “hectocorns”, or even “terracorns”.

    For context, Visual Capitalist put together an infographic based on Crunchbase’s board that highlights the world’s top 30 Unicorns.

    Here is the list for 2026.

    via visualcapitalist

    Today, AI has usurped the top spot from fintech, e-commerce, and social media platforms.

    Anthropic tops the ranking with a valuation of $965 billion, followed closely by OpenAI at $852 billion. Together, these two AI leaders are worth a combined $1.8 trillion … nearly half of the total value of these 30 companies.

    RankCompanyValuation
    1🇺🇸 Anthropic$965B
    2🇺🇸 OpenAI$852B
    3🇨🇳 ByteDance$480B
    4🇺🇸 Stripe$159B
    5🇨🇳 Ant Group$150B
    6🇺🇸 Databricks$134B
    7🇺🇸 Waymo$126B
    8🇮🇳 Reliance Retail$101B
    9🇬🇧 Revolut$75B
    10🇨🇳 Shein$66B
    11🇺🇸 Anduril Industries$61B
    12🇮🇳 Reliance Jio$58B
    13🇺🇸 Ramp$44B
    14🇦🇺 Canva$42B
    15🇬🇧 Checkout.com$40B

    Beyond the top two, we see several other AI-centric companies, including Databricks, Figure, Safe Superintelligence, Anysphere, Scale AI, and Cognition.

    Although American companies lead the list, it’s encouraging to see innovation remain diverse, featuring firms from different industries and locations, including China, India, the UK, Australia, and Seychelles.

    For an extra look at Unicorns, here are my articles on them from

  • Happy Father’s Day 2026

    My adult son took me to lunch today for Father’s Day.

    Not just any lunch, either. He took me to the New York-style deli we used to visit when he and his brother were growing up. It’s one of those places that has been around forever. The booths are familiar. The menu hasn’t changed much. Even some of the faces behind the counter looked familiar—just a little older, like the rest of us.

    I don’t know whether it was nostalgia talking, but the food seemed just as good as I remembered.

    What I remembered most, though, was what happened after lunch. Back when my son was a kid, he would always beg to stop by the card shop next door to buy Pokémon cards. It was practically part of the ritual.

    Well, today, at 33 years young, he did it again.

    For old times’ sake, he walked next door, browsed the cards, and relived a small tradition that neither of us realized would still be around decades later.

    Moments like that remind you that having great kids is a double blessing. It’s nice to be proud of who your kids are and the things they do. It’s also nice to feel proud of the small part you played in helping them become who they are.

    In addition, this weekend, I spent some time thinking about my father and what a terrific influence he had on so many lives.

    My Dad was incredibly loving … yet he was also incredibly demanding.

    For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, I watched him run down from the stands. I figured he was coming down to celebrate. Instead, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was disappointed that I did not throw a personal best that day? I replied: “But Dad, I won.” He smiled and recognized that winning was important too … then he reminded me that the other throwers were not my real competition. To be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself … and we both knew I could do better.

    My Dad believed in setting high standards. He explained that most people’s lives are defined by their minimum standards. Why? Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted by other things and how to meet the minimum standards for them as well.

    The point is to set a higher standard and to have a better life.

    Here is another one of his favorite sayings. “The difference between good and great is infinitesimal.” This applies to many things. For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them. 

    Here is something else worth sharing. “It’s not over until we win!” This concept underscores the importance of resilience, commitment, and grit. My Dad emphasized that many people quit when they’re on the brink of victory, simply because they don’t realize how close they are.  

    This has led me to develop several practices. For example, if I pick up a book, I won’t put it down until I finish a chapter. If I start a game, I can’t stop until I exceed a specific score or level. And when I exercise, there’s no way I’d ever stop before finishing a set.

    Integrating these concepts involves aligning your head, heart, and feet. It means there’s a difference between knowing what to do, wanting to do it, and actually doing it. Likewise, it’s one thing to know the saying. It’s another to adopt it as a value or belief … and it’s another thing altogether to make it your practice. 

    Watching my son walk into that card shop today made me think about how values, habits, and traditions get passed from one generation to the next. Sometimes it’s through lessons about standards, perseverance, and excellence. Sometimes it’s through something as simple as sharing a sandwich at an old deli and buying a pack of Pokémon cards.

    The years go by faster than we expect. The deli gets older. The people behind the counter get older. We get older.

    But some traditions are worth keeping.

    Well, that should explain a little of my dysfunction …  but, if you can’t mess up your own kids, whose kids can you mess up?

    Hopefully, you had a happy Father’s Day weekend!