Web/Tech

  • Capitalogix Commentary 05/31/09

    A Different Form of Rescue for G.M., Through Bankruptcy.Auto Industry Natural Selection

    President Obama will push General Motors into bankruptcy protection on Monday, making a risky economic and political bet that by nationalizing the onetime icon of American capitalism, he can save the company as a much smaller automaker that is competitive.

    Still, The Market's Rally Persists.

    The Markets continue to hold-up well three months into the rally.  From my standpoint, I'd like to see a pull-back.  However, the action has seemed relatively healthy considering the circumstances. 

    The chart below shows a daily view of the S&P 500 since its March lows.  I marked the obvious Bull and Bear cases for your review.  A sustained break-out to the upside would be significant here.

    090531 SP500 Consolidation

    I don't normally post intra-day charts; however, Friday was interesting.  We spent the day bouncing within a tight range … then somebody started buying.  I hear people reference the "Boys" or the "Plunge Protection Team", or explain the push as "End-of-Month Window Dressing" or "Short-Covering."  Here is an hourly chart showing Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

    090531 SP500 Consolidation Spike

    From my perspective, all it means was there was a lack of sellers.  Let's see if they come back in June.

    What Goes Up, Must Come Down:  Or Does It?

    The rally did not just happen here in America.  This chart, from Bespoke, shows how far the fast growing developing countries have come this year. 

    BRIC Country Equity Index Performance YTD 2009

    When I see charts like this, one part of me thinks, "look how far they've come"; and another part of me thinks, "look how far they are likely to fall."

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Sell In May? Not This Time … as the Rally Continued. (Seeking Alpha)
    • Many Hedge Funds Caught Short by the Rally, Still Have Not Fully Bought-In. (WSJ)
    • Will Money Flow Back Into The Markets, Or Will The Sidelines Stay Crowded? (WSJ)
    • Economists Disagree Whether A Sustainable Recovery Has Begun. (Market Oracle)
    • Hulbert's Contrarian Take On Consumer Confidence. (MarketWatch)
    • Tivo Posts Loss As Its Growth Slows. (NYTimes)
    • Dell Warns PC Market Hasn't Hit Bottom; Suffers 63% Drop In Quarterly Profit. (WSJ)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Susan Boyle's Final Performance on the "Britain's Got Talent" Final. (YouTube)
    • The Science of Voodoo – How Mind Attacks Body. (New
      Scientist
      )

    • Shark Tank: New Reality Show Where Entrepreneurs Pitch To VCs. (WSJ Blogs)
    • Is Cloud-Computing a Myth or a Worthy Goal? (Forbes)
    • New Form of Warfare? Mysterious Computer Virus Strikes FBI. (ZDNet)
    • Thought Provoking Article about Author-Strategist, Jim Collins. (NYTimes)
    • How IBM Plans To Win Jeopardy! With
      Natural-Language Processing. (Tech Review)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
  • Capitalogix Commentary 05/31/09

    A Different Form of Rescue for G.M., Through Bankruptcy.Auto Industry Natural Selection

    President Obama will push General Motors into bankruptcy protection on Monday, making a risky economic and political bet that by nationalizing the onetime icon of American capitalism, he can save the company as a much smaller automaker that is competitive.

    Still, The Market's Rally Persists.

    The Markets continue to hold-up well three months into the rally.  From my standpoint, I'd like to see a pull-back.  However, the action has seemed relatively healthy considering the circumstances. 

    The chart below shows a daily view of the S&P 500 since its March lows.  I marked the obvious Bull and Bear cases for your review.  A sustained break-out to the upside would be significant here.

    090531 SP500 Consolidation

    I don't normally post intra-day charts; however, Friday was interesting.  We spent the day bouncing within a tight range … then somebody started buying.  I hear people reference the "Boys" or the "Plunge Protection Team", or explain the push as "End-of-Month Window Dressing" or "Short-Covering."  Here is an hourly chart showing Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

    090531 SP500 Consolidation Spike

    From my perspective, all it means was there was a lack of sellers.  Let's see if they come back in June.

    What Goes Up, Must Come Down:  Or Does It?

    The rally did not just happen here in America.  This chart, from Bespoke, shows how far the fast growing developing countries have come this year. 

    BRIC Country Equity Index Performance YTD 2009

    When I see charts like this, one part of me thinks, "look how far they've come"; and another part of me thinks, "look how far they are likely to fall."

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Sell In May? Not This Time … as the Rally Continued. (Seeking Alpha)
    • Many Hedge Funds Caught Short by the Rally, Still Have Not Fully Bought-In. (WSJ)
    • Will Money Flow Back Into The Markets, Or Will The Sidelines Stay Crowded? (WSJ)
    • Economists Disagree Whether A Sustainable Recovery Has Begun. (Market Oracle)
    • Hulbert's Contrarian Take On Consumer Confidence. (MarketWatch)
    • Tivo Posts Loss As Its Growth Slows. (NYTimes)
    • Dell Warns PC Market Hasn't Hit Bottom; Suffers 63% Drop In Quarterly Profit. (WSJ)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Susan Boyle's Final Performance on the "Britain's Got Talent" Final. (YouTube)
    • The Science of Voodoo – How Mind Attacks Body. (New
      Scientist
      )

    • Shark Tank: New Reality Show Where Entrepreneurs Pitch To VCs. (WSJ Blogs)
    • Is Cloud-Computing a Myth or a Worthy Goal? (Forbes)
    • New Form of Warfare? Mysterious Computer Virus Strikes FBI. (ZDNet)
    • Thought Provoking Article about Author-Strategist, Jim Collins. (NYTimes)
    • How IBM Plans To Win Jeopardy! With
      Natural-Language Processing. (Tech Review)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
  • Seth Godin: Why Tribes, Not Money Or Factories, Will Change The World

    Terrific video from the TED series.

    Seth Godin argues the Internet has ended mass marketing and revived a human social unit from the distant past: tribes. Founded on shared ideas and values, tribes give ordinary people the power to lead and make big change. He urges us to do so.

    Direct link to the Seth Godin's Tribe Talk at TED.

    I'm seeing more examples of Tribes. For example, Facebook and Twitter have become an important part of my day and business process.  I am pleasantly surprised by how many people have offered ideas, opinions and insights that make a difference and move things forward.

    Everything old is new again.  Welcome to the tribe.

  • Seth Godin: Why Tribes, Not Money Or Factories, Will Change The World

    Terrific video from the TED series.

    Seth Godin argues the Internet has ended mass marketing and revived a human social unit from the distant past: tribes. Founded on shared ideas and values, tribes give ordinary people the power to lead and make big change. He urges us to do so.

    Direct link to the Seth Godin's Tribe Talk at TED.

    I'm seeing more examples of Tribes. For example, Facebook and Twitter have become an important part of my day and business process.  I am pleasantly surprised by how many people have offered ideas, opinions and insights that make a difference and move things forward.

    Everything old is new again.  Welcome to the tribe.

  • Wolfram’s Alpha Knowledge Engine

    I use Google without thinking.  It is a habit or a reflex.  That is about to change; at least for some types of information.

    They call it a "Computational Knowledge Engine" – but my tests tell me it does a lot more than what that means to me.  For example, here is a comparison of Accenture and IBM.

    090515 Wolfram Alpha

    Here is a link to a brief demo.  Take a look … I bet you shake your head and smile.  Progress is a beautiful thing.

    It does a lot more than calculate how many days you've been alive, amortize a mortgage, or tell you the flying time from Dallas to Paris.  Apparently the folks at Wolfram have a sense of humor too.  Here are some example searches that demonstrate that:

    Here is a summary of some more of the hidden tidbits from Mashable.

    Strangely, it doesn't know what a "computational knowledge engine" is … I guess that makes it more human.  It is easier to know lots of stuff than to be self-aware.

  • Wolfram’s Alpha Knowledge Engine

    I use Google without thinking.  It is a habit or a reflex.  That is about to change; at least for some types of information.

    They call it a "Computational Knowledge Engine" – but my tests tell me it does a lot more than what that means to me.  For example, here is a comparison of Accenture and IBM.

    090515 Wolfram Alpha

    Here is a link to a brief demo.  Take a look … I bet you shake your head and smile.  Progress is a beautiful thing.

    It does a lot more than calculate how many days you've been alive, amortize a mortgage, or tell you the flying time from Dallas to Paris.  Apparently the folks at Wolfram have a sense of humor too.  Here are some example searches that demonstrate that:

    Here is a summary of some more of the hidden tidbits from Mashable.

    Strangely, it doesn't know what a "computational knowledge engine" is … I guess that makes it more human.  It is easier to know lots of stuff than to be self-aware.

  • How To Type More Accurately and Much Faster With Asutype

    090327 Asutype
    I'm surprised by how much of my typing is now done outside of
    traditional e-mail or business software (like Microsoft Word). Instead,
    my typing is done in web-based applications like my blog, Facebook, or
    Twitter. That's where a program like Asutype really shines.

    I have been using a very effective spell-checking and text expansion program for several years now. It works so well that I forget it's there, even though it automatically fixes most of my typing errors and makes it easy for me to enter repetitive phrases or pieces of information.  The bottom-line is that it helps me type more accurately and much faster.

    There are three basic ways to use the software.

    1. Correct Mistakes Interactively. The first is an interactive spell checker that works as you type (hence the name "Asutype"). When you type something that isn't in its dictionaries, it pops up a correction box with several of the most likely replacement candidates. This provides a quick and easy way to fix your spelling without having to retype anything.
      090327 Asutype Correction
    2. Correct Repetitive Mistakes Automatically. The software also keeps track of the mistakes you make as well as the corrections that you apply and allows you to create a list of automatic entries. From time-to-time I'll review the list of corrections and choose to add them to my permanent list. When I do that, then next time I mistype that word or phrase, the software automatically fixes it (without even asking). This means I type much quicker because most of my typing mistakes are repetitive and that means I make them consistently). I'm actually surprised by how many different ways I could misspell certain words. It's not so much that I don't know how to spell them, it's that my fingers don't do the right thing when I'm trying to type quickly or get distracted.
      090327 Asutype Correction List

    3. Automate Repetitive Typing.  The software also has some very powerful text expansion capabilities. I think of them almost as abbreviations or shortcuts. There are certain words or phrases that I type often (examples include: Capitalogix, our web address, or phrase like "please contact me if you have questions or comments".). Another example might be to use the abbreviation "VTY", which could expand to "very truly yours" …  and then your signature block.

    You never have a second chance to make a first impression, so I'm glad that Asutype helps me seem like a good speller. Here are the links for you to find out more information or to download a trial copy yourself. I don't have anything to do with the company other than I'm a happy user. I've had my license for years, and I can vouch for their service, support, and the good experience that I've had with their tool. I hope you like it too.

  • How To Type More Accurately and Much Faster With Asutype

    090327 Asutype
    I'm surprised by how much of my typing is now done outside of
    traditional e-mail or business software (like Microsoft Word). Instead,
    my typing is done in web-based applications like my blog, Facebook, or
    Twitter. That's where a program like Asutype really shines.

    I have been using a very effective spell-checking and text expansion program for several years now. It works so well that I forget it's there, even though it automatically fixes most of my typing errors and makes it easy for me to enter repetitive phrases or pieces of information.  The bottom-line is that it helps me type more accurately and much faster.

    There are three basic ways to use the software.

    1. Correct Mistakes Interactively. The first is an interactive spell checker that works as you type (hence the name "Asutype"). When you type something that isn't in its dictionaries, it pops up a correction box with several of the most likely replacement candidates. This provides a quick and easy way to fix your spelling without having to retype anything.
      090327 Asutype Correction
    2. Correct Repetitive Mistakes Automatically. The software also keeps track of the mistakes you make as well as the corrections that you apply and allows you to create a list of automatic entries. From time-to-time I'll review the list of corrections and choose to add them to my permanent list. When I do that, then next time I mistype that word or phrase, the software automatically fixes it (without even asking). This means I type much quicker because most of my typing mistakes are repetitive and that means I make them consistently). I'm actually surprised by how many different ways I could misspell certain words. It's not so much that I don't know how to spell them, it's that my fingers don't do the right thing when I'm trying to type quickly or get distracted.
      090327 Asutype Correction List

    3. Automate Repetitive Typing.  The software also has some very powerful text expansion capabilities. I think of them almost as abbreviations or shortcuts. There are certain words or phrases that I type often (examples include: Capitalogix, our web address, or phrase like "please contact me if you have questions or comments".). Another example might be to use the abbreviation "VTY", which could expand to "very truly yours" …  and then your signature block.

    You never have a second chance to make a first impression, so I'm glad that Asutype helps me seem like a good speller. Here are the links for you to find out more information or to download a trial copy yourself. I don't have anything to do with the company other than I'm a happy user. I've had my license for years, and I can vouch for their service, support, and the good experience that I've had with their tool. I hope you like it too.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 03/27/09

    090327 Bear Market Rally Compared to Others
    All Revved-up and No Place to Go
    .

    We just saw a 24% rally unfold in a little over two weeks. But a rally like that doesn't make too many people happy. For most, this is where fear and greed collide.

    Prudence dictates that position size and risk should stay small while in a serious long-term downtrend, especially with a stock like Citibank recently trading under a dollar. Yet a rally that big and steep often makes people feel like they should have been in the market, and wish they would've traded "this, that, or the other" stock or sector that they noticed a week or two ago.

    Don't Worry, This Little Bit of Mind Control Won't Hurt A Bit …

    This week I saw several news reports using the phrase "The Great Recession". This might be part of an interesting strategy on the part of the International Monetary Fund, which used that phrase a few weeks ago. Naming something gives you control over it (or at least the appearance of control over it). And "Recession" sounds so much less severe than "Depression". If you can just get people to adopt that phrase, it might give them enough hope that you actually avoid a depression? But just as it's hard to call a recession until you're well into it, I think it's pretty hard to tell whether you come out of it than till you're actually out of it. Still, it is a nice try.

    Likewise, I have been impressed by how the administration has played the financial crisis lately. There seem to be some sound ideas, talked about in ways that make sense to the public, which get announced at strategic times. Moreover, it seems to be working; and the market looks like it's responding.

    090327 Sons of Frankenstein Re-Animating the Banking System

    However, the key word there might be "looks". I'm certainly not convinced that the worst is over yet.

    Where Are We in the Cycle?

    A few weeks ago I noted the spread between smart money confidence and retail investor pessimism was at levels that often indicated short or intermediate-term bottoms. In hindsight it worked again, and there was a pretty sizable rally. However, retail traders are becoming confident again, too quickly for my taste.  And the spread is no longer significant.  So I don't see an edge there at this point.

    I don't believe this is the end of the bottom. Instead, I hope this is the beginning of the bottoming process. My sense is that there are many businesses hanging on by a fingernail, or sheer will. Some of them are getting tired, others are running out of money, while still others are finding it hard to sell something in this environment. The point is that I suspect we're due for another round of culling the herd. That's not necessarily a bad thing, either.

    090327 Evil_kniev-quad-form Chart Joke

    What I'll be looking for, this time, is that I think we'll see a number of deals get done as prices get lower again. The companies that are going to survive, the companies that are going to thrive, the companies that are going to become new leaders in this next phase of our economy are going to start moving forward again.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Bears Are Wary as Bull Returns – Dow Up 21% in 13 Days. (WSJ)
    • Is it safe to go back in the water? Best to figure out what went wrong first. (Andy Kessler)
    • US economy falls 6.3% in fourth quarter; fastest rate since 1982. (Financial Times)
    • Explanation of the Fed's $1.1 Trillion Public-Private Investment Program. (The Big Picture)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets (My List)

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Friedman: What Distinguishes the Best Leaders, is that they learn from crashes. (NYTimes)
    • Mind Control Goes Mainstream – Gadget offer working digital telekinesis. (Forbes)
    • Growing-up Online Shapes Work Expectations of the Facebook Generation. (Gary Hamel)
    • Nice Introduction to Twitter Use and Best Practices. (Twitips)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links (My List)
  • Capitalogix Commentary 03/27/09

    090327 Bear Market Rally Compared to Others
    All Revved-up and No Place to Go
    .

    We just saw a 24% rally unfold in a little over two weeks. But a rally like that doesn't make too many people happy. For most, this is where fear and greed collide.

    Prudence dictates that position size and risk should stay small while in a serious long-term downtrend, especially with a stock like Citibank recently trading under a dollar. Yet a rally that big and steep often makes people feel like they should have been in the market, and wish they would've traded "this, that, or the other" stock or sector that they noticed a week or two ago.

    Don't Worry, This Little Bit of Mind Control Won't Hurt A Bit …

    This week I saw several news reports using the phrase "The Great Recession". This might be part of an interesting strategy on the part of the International Monetary Fund, which used that phrase a few weeks ago. Naming something gives you control over it (or at least the appearance of control over it). And "Recession" sounds so much less severe than "Depression". If you can just get people to adopt that phrase, it might give them enough hope that you actually avoid a depression? But just as it's hard to call a recession until you're well into it, I think it's pretty hard to tell whether you come out of it than till you're actually out of it. Still, it is a nice try.

    Likewise, I have been impressed by how the administration has played the financial crisis lately. There seem to be some sound ideas, talked about in ways that make sense to the public, which get announced at strategic times. Moreover, it seems to be working; and the market looks like it's responding.

    090327 Sons of Frankenstein Re-Animating the Banking System

    However, the key word there might be "looks". I'm certainly not convinced that the worst is over yet.

    Where Are We in the Cycle?

    A few weeks ago I noted the spread between smart money confidence and retail investor pessimism was at levels that often indicated short or intermediate-term bottoms. In hindsight it worked again, and there was a pretty sizable rally. However, retail traders are becoming confident again, too quickly for my taste.  And the spread is no longer significant.  So I don't see an edge there at this point.

    I don't believe this is the end of the bottom. Instead, I hope this is the beginning of the bottoming process. My sense is that there are many businesses hanging on by a fingernail, or sheer will. Some of them are getting tired, others are running out of money, while still others are finding it hard to sell something in this environment. The point is that I suspect we're due for another round of culling the herd. That's not necessarily a bad thing, either.

    090327 Evil_kniev-quad-form Chart Joke

    What I'll be looking for, this time, is that I think we'll see a number of deals get done as prices get lower again. The companies that are going to survive, the companies that are going to thrive, the companies that are going to become new leaders in this next phase of our economy are going to start moving forward again.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Bears Are Wary as Bull Returns – Dow Up 21% in 13 Days. (WSJ)
    • Is it safe to go back in the water? Best to figure out what went wrong first. (Andy Kessler)
    • US economy falls 6.3% in fourth quarter; fastest rate since 1982. (Financial Times)
    • Explanation of the Fed's $1.1 Trillion Public-Private Investment Program. (The Big Picture)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets (My List)

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Friedman: What Distinguishes the Best Leaders, is that they learn from crashes. (NYTimes)
    • Mind Control Goes Mainstream – Gadget offer working digital telekinesis. (Forbes)
    • Growing-up Online Shapes Work Expectations of the Facebook Generation. (Gary Hamel)
    • Nice Introduction to Twitter Use and Best Practices. (Twitips)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links (My List)