Web/Tech

  • Capitalogix Commentary 07/12/09

    Obama told the G8 that the "World has Staved Off Economic Disaster." So, it's all good now.  You are safe to jump back in the pool.  If there was still risk, he couldn't have said that in front of world leaders, right?

    Is This the New Normal … Or Just the Calm Before the Storm?

    Here is a chart that shows how volatility has reduced recently.  Putting on my curmudgeon hat for a moment, I remember the old trader's adage that lack of volatility begets volatility.

    090711 Volatility is Down

    That chart whispers "beware the calm before the storm" to me.  Others may see a return to normal.  What do you think?

    A Look At the Markets.

    The markets have given back close to 25% of their recent gains in the last four weeks. In many respects that was a healthy move. The news has been bad enough that I expected a bigger and steeper downswing.

    Also, there's been a lot of talk about the potential of a head and shoulders top. But when you look at a composite of the five U.S. Equity Indices (shown in the bottom-half of the chart, below), we haven't broken the neckline, yet.

    In addition, the 200-day moving average (red line) continues to provide support. If we don't have a sustained break beneath this level, the 200-day moving average will act as support.  Click the chart to see a full-size image.

    090711 SP500 and Composite

    With that said, sentiment is getting more bearish, and the move down
    has not created a spike in the VIX. So, again, there are clues that lead me to suspect that we might be witnessing the calm
    before the storm.  Earnings Season is starting; and a move down would trigger the head-and-shoulders topping pattern and the 200-day moving average would become overhead resistance.  And fear would increase … you get the picture.

    Sometimes, the right picture can be worth a thousand words.

    Dow's Dead-Cat Bounce from GuidePostings

    So short-term, a bounce wouldn't surprise me. Nonetheless, a bigger correction still seems likely.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Businessman Pays $2.1 million for Lunch with Buffet; Banks More (DigitalJournal)
    • 11 Places With a Worse Economy Than Ours. (USNews)
    • Currency Funds Crushed on Dearth of Market Trends. (Bloomberg)
    • The Dollar's role in the global economy is Safe From the Yuan, for Now (WSJ)
    • Ex-Goldman Sachs Employee Arrested Stealing Secret Trading Codes. (StreetInsider)
    • Citadel Sues Firm Linked to Alleged Goldman Software Theft. (FinAlternatives)
    • Mark Cuban on Business Models: Succeed with Free, Die by Free. (BlogMaverick)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Screen Capture Software Worth Snagging

    090705 Snagit I'm so glad I found Snagit.  It is one of the un-sung heroes that I use all the time but don't think about because it is so reliable and stable that I forget how good it is.

    What Can You Do With Snagit? 

    Capture anything you see on the screen. Edit and combine those captures. Add text, arrows, or highlights to make the image better.  Then share them through your favorite applications. Organize and find them again later.

    I end-up using it several times a day.  It is my default image editor.  I use it to create or edit the graphics for the blog, presentations and e-mails.  I use it to capture and annotate certain financial transactions … and to get or give tech support. Bottom-Line: the more you use Snagit, the more ways you'll find to use it. 

    Here is a two-minute video that will give you a quick overview of some of the things Snagit can do for you.

    090705 Snagit Overview Video

    Techsmith makes several other cool tools too.  I'm not affiliated with them, other than as a satisfied client.  Just thought it was worth sharing.  Hope it helps you too. 

    Click here to go to the product page for Snagit.

    Click here to download a trial.

  • Screen Capture Software Worth Snagging

    090705 Snagit I'm so glad I found Snagit.  It is one of the un-sung heroes that I use all the time but don't think about because it is so reliable and stable that I forget how good it is.

    What Can You Do With Snagit? 

    Capture anything you see on the screen. Edit and combine those captures. Add text, arrows, or highlights to make the image better.  Then share them through your favorite applications. Organize and find them again later.

    I end-up using it several times a day.  It is my default image editor.  I use it to create or edit the graphics for the blog, presentations and e-mails.  I use it to capture and annotate certain financial transactions … and to get or give tech support. Bottom-Line: the more you use Snagit, the more ways you'll find to use it. 

    Here is a two-minute video that will give you a quick overview of some of the things Snagit can do for you.

    090705 Snagit Overview Video

    Techsmith makes several other cool tools too.  I'm not affiliated with them, other than as a satisfied client.  Just thought it was worth sharing.  Hope it helps you too. 

    Click here to go to the product page for Snagit.

    Click here to download a trial.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 06/21/09

    Time flies when you are having fun.  We're almost halfway through the year, and the markets have rallied now for three-plus months. That sounds positive … So why are so many people focused on the  Federal Reserve's two-day meeting that ends Wednesday?  My guess is that many investors will be watching for any changes in the long-term economic outlook.

    So we are at a Tipping Point, once again.  There is cash on the sidelines waiting for a sign that it's safe to get back in the game; and there are investors who are looking to protect their rally profits, or are afraid of the next leg down.

    This daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index highlights what bulls and bears see.  We'll soon know which is more committed.

    090621 Dow Analysis 600p

    From my perspective, I understand why discretionary traders might want to try to buy this pull-back.  There is a clear Risk-Reward; and it's easy to set your stop.  However, experience warns me to be wary of set-ups like this where market breadth is weakening.  My wife doesn't like charts that have too many marks on them … she says they are confusing.  So I tried to find a different image that conveys what this chart may be whispering to the little bird.

    I Feel Good

    Finally, I was reading Paul Kedrosky's blog when I ran across this chart showing the price of crude oil from 1861 through 2208.  It comes from BP.  It provides an interesting perspective.

    090621 Crude Oil Prices Since 1861

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 06/21/09

    Time flies when you are having fun.  We're almost halfway through the year, and the markets have rallied now for three-plus months. That sounds positive … So why are so many people focused on the  Federal Reserve's two-day meeting that ends Wednesday?  My guess is that many investors will be watching for any changes in the long-term economic outlook.

    So we are at a Tipping Point, once again.  There is cash on the sidelines waiting for a sign that it's safe to get back in the game; and there are investors who are looking to protect their rally profits, or are afraid of the next leg down.

    This daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index highlights what bulls and bears see.  We'll soon know which is more committed.

    090621 Dow Analysis 600p

    From my perspective, I understand why discretionary traders might want to try to buy this pull-back.  There is a clear Risk-Reward; and it's easy to set your stop.  However, experience warns me to be wary of set-ups like this where market breadth is weakening.  My wife doesn't like charts that have too many marks on them … she says they are confusing.  So I tried to find a different image that conveys what this chart may be whispering to the little bird.

    I Feel Good

    Finally, I was reading Paul Kedrosky's blog when I ran across this chart showing the price of crude oil from 1861 through 2208.  It comes from BP.  It provides an interesting perspective.

    090621 Crude Oil Prices Since 1861

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 05/14/09

    Swine Flu Symptoms

    The Swine Flu made headlines again.  Apparently, no one cares that the the U.N.'s World Health Organization officially declared the outbreak to be a "pandemic" this week.  If you don't know what to look for,  this picture illustrates some symptoms.

    If the Markets' continued rally is taken as evidence, then it also appears that people don't care about the threats weighing down the economy.  The Major U.S. Index Averages are holding above their 200-Day declining moving averages and overhead resistance.  Also, Bespoke notes that eighty-four percent of the stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving averages.  With that said, momentum is waning … three months into the rally. 

    Of course, the length and staying power of the rally says something about how crowds work, and why the majority of traders are often wrong at turning points in the market.  The following video makes the same point, a different way.  On the surface, it starts with a lone male, dancing at a music festival.  It is fascinating to watch what happens when other people feel the urge to get in on the fun. It takes about one-minute for people to start joining in.  By two-minutes, there's a crowd.  And by three, it's a mob.

    Here is the direct link to the video on YouTube.  This says something about human nature, doesn't it?

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • The Top Twelve Funny Indicators That The Economy Is Bad. (Big Picture)
    • Why Microsoft Windows 7 XP Mode is a Major Advancement. (eWeek)
    • Making Fat Disappear with a Genetic Strategy from Bacteria. (Tech Review)
    • When Sleep Leaves You Tired: It's the Quality, Not Quantity. (WSJ)
    • When a 'Chosen' Tibetan Lama Says "No Thanks". (Time)
    • How Twitter Will Change the Way We Live. (Time)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 05/14/09

    Swine Flu Symptoms

    The Swine Flu made headlines again.  Apparently, no one cares that the the U.N.'s World Health Organization officially declared the outbreak to be a "pandemic" this week.  If you don't know what to look for,  this picture illustrates some symptoms.

    If the Markets' continued rally is taken as evidence, then it also appears that people don't care about the threats weighing down the economy.  The Major U.S. Index Averages are holding above their 200-Day declining moving averages and overhead resistance.  Also, Bespoke notes that eighty-four percent of the stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving averages.  With that said, momentum is waning … three months into the rally. 

    Of course, the length and staying power of the rally says something about how crowds work, and why the majority of traders are often wrong at turning points in the market.  The following video makes the same point, a different way.  On the surface, it starts with a lone male, dancing at a music festival.  It is fascinating to watch what happens when other people feel the urge to get in on the fun. It takes about one-minute for people to start joining in.  By two-minutes, there's a crowd.  And by three, it's a mob.

    Here is the direct link to the video on YouTube.  This says something about human nature, doesn't it?

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • The Top Twelve Funny Indicators That The Economy Is Bad. (Big Picture)
    • Why Microsoft Windows 7 XP Mode is a Major Advancement. (eWeek)
    • Making Fat Disappear with a Genetic Strategy from Bacteria. (Tech Review)
    • When Sleep Leaves You Tired: It's the Quality, Not Quantity. (WSJ)
    • When a 'Chosen' Tibetan Lama Says "No Thanks". (Time)
    • How Twitter Will Change the Way We Live. (Time)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 06/07/09

    Last week, as the Markets approached their 200-Day declining moving averages and overhead resistance, I said that a sustained break-out to the upside would be significant here. 

    Well, the Markets gapped higher last Monday, and held their ground.  From most logical and technical perspectives the action has seemed relatively healthy considering the circumstances … three months into the rally. 

    It is somewhat funny that unemployment continues to go up, but people focus on how the increase is slowing.  This seems to be happening on several fronts.

    Stantis-DecayingSlower-RGB

    Frankly, from a trading perspective, a bullish response to bad news is a bullish sign.  And I don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth, either.  This Market is quite well-behaved, and has acted as if "Bull-Rules" apply.  So, trade what the market gives you. Still, from another standpoint, I'd like to see a pull-back. 

    Money Shot: A Commentary On Investing.

    What is so funny about this video is that the people being interviewed don't know they are a satire of the investment market as a whole.  It is worth watching.  Hope you enjoy it.

    The Daily Show With Jon Stewart M – Th 11p / 10c
    Money Shot
    thedailyshow.com
    Daily Show
    Full Episodes    		 Political Humor Economic Crisis

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Jim Rogers 100% Long For The First Time Since '87. (Street Insider)
    • New Bull: Does Rare Coppock Curve Pattern Signal the Next Move? (CNBC)
    • Was 2008 an Outlier? Not as Much as You Might Think. (SeekingAlpha)
    • Is Microsoft Repeating GM's Mistakes? (Infoworld)
    • What Does Tivo's Patent Win Mean For Investors? (WSJ)
    • Banks Raising Billions to Repay Government. (DealBook)
    • Taleb's ‘Black Swan’ Hedge Fund Bets On Hyperinflation. (FinAlternatives)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Becoming a Savant: How To Unleash Your Brain's Inner Genius. (New Scientist)
    • Why Meetings Suck: The Four Quadrants of Communication. (Integral Life)
    • Will Google Wave Transform How You Communicate And Collaborate? (ZDNet)
    • It Just Got Easier to Port Virtual Apps into the Cloud. (Tech Review)
    • Microsoft Readies Incentives For You To Adopt Windows 7. (ZDNet)
    • Personalized Medicine Could Be The Next Big Thing. (Forbes)
    • How Casinos Find and Target Their Favorite Customers. (Wharton)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

    TXT

  • Software to Help You Manage Your Mind

    Visual Thinking, Idea Mapping or Mind-Mapping … whatever you call it, there are some terrific new tools available to help you think, plan and write better.

    I find I'm using it more often and for more things, like: note-taking, process maps, brainstorming and presentations.

    How Does It Work?

    Mind-Mapping is related to outlining. So you already know how to do it.  It is intuitive, and makes it
    easy to see thought structure and relationships. It also makes it easy to review and re-organize the framework that organizes your data. Here is an example showing what you can do with a tool like this.

    090607 Uses of MindMaps

    How Can You Use Mind-Mapping Software?

    I use this type of software like a virtual whiteboard.  It helps me organize a meeting or present a thought process. What used to be a form on a piece of paper, now becomes the dynamic center of collective focus.  For example, here is a map template from Mindjet's MindManager; it is used to evaluate an
    idea using SWOT analysis (which stands for: strength, weakness,
    opportunity, and threat).

    090607 SWOT

    The structure of the outline and actually
    helps control focus and trigger new ideas. And the software allow me to add detail and new items in any order.  The result is better understanding and often, new ideas and possibilities.

    Brainstorming.

    The computer age has made it a lot easier for me to collect data. Then what? Data is a raw material, but I often want to think better …
    rather than to just have more data. So, I use visual thinking tools to help me
    make sense of lots of ideas. It often helps me see relationships and
    move items around to places where they fit better, or trigger new
    thoughts.

    PostIt_Board 278p For brainstorming, the software is a lot like writing ideas on Post-It Notes and moving them around on a whiteboard.  I like being able to enter information the order
    that occurs to me, rather than having to understand the bigger picture.

    In fact, it's by placing all the seemingly random bits of information
    page and dragging them around into piles, that the bigger picture often
    reveals itself to me.

    To do that, I try to figure what relates the piles, and I create a label for that category. I then try to figure out how categories fit together, and ultimately come up with a better understanding of the thought framework. From there, it doesn't take much work to fill out weaker areas of the outline, adding an idea here, moving an idea from there.

    The Software Tools.

    Even if you tried a tool like this before, it is time for a fresh look.  These tools have evolved and are worth having and using.

    Mindjet's MindManager is the tool I use most often. The current version is stable and mature, with a nice feature set and the ability to export information into a variety of programs and formats. I especially like the new option to export a live branching version of the mind map in PDF format.

    090607 MindJet Example

    Mindjet offers a template gallery for you to download 70+ sample maps to use.

    Another tool I've been using more of lately is Tony Buzan's iMindMap.  Buzan is a well-known proponent of mind mapping and has created a visually appealing tool.

    090607 Creative Solutions Examples with iMindMap

    It's compelling, and I'm trying to use it more. They also have a nice collection of videos explaining the software and concepts behind mind-mapping that is worth exploring.

    Personally, though, for real work I find myself going back to Mindjet product.

    In addition, there's an open-source version called FreeMind. Here's the link to try that tool as well.

  • Software to Help You Manage Your Mind

    Visual Thinking, Idea Mapping or Mind-Mapping … whatever you call it, there are some terrific new tools available to help you think, plan and write better.

    I find I'm using it more often and for more things, like: note-taking, process maps, brainstorming and presentations.

    How Does It Work?

    Mind-Mapping is related to outlining. So you already know how to do it.  It is intuitive, and makes it
    easy to see thought structure and relationships. It also makes it easy to review and re-organize the framework that organizes your data. Here is an example showing what you can do with a tool like this.

    090607 Uses of MindMaps

    How Can You Use Mind-Mapping Software?

    I use this type of software like a virtual whiteboard.  It helps me organize a meeting or present a thought process. What used to be a form on a piece of paper, now becomes the dynamic center of collective focus.  For example, here is a map template from Mindjet's MindManager; it is used to evaluate an
    idea using SWOT analysis (which stands for: strength, weakness,
    opportunity, and threat).

    090607 SWOT

    The structure of the outline and actually
    helps control focus and trigger new ideas. And the software allow me to add detail and new items in any order.  The result is better understanding and often, new ideas and possibilities.

    Brainstorming.

    The computer age has made it a lot easier for me to collect data. Then what? Data is a raw material, but I often want to think better …
    rather than to just have more data. So, I use visual thinking tools to help me
    make sense of lots of ideas. It often helps me see relationships and
    move items around to places where they fit better, or trigger new
    thoughts.

    PostIt_Board 278p For brainstorming, the software is a lot like writing ideas on Post-It Notes and moving them around on a whiteboard.  I like being able to enter information the order
    that occurs to me, rather than having to understand the bigger picture.

    In fact, it's by placing all the seemingly random bits of information
    page and dragging them around into piles, that the bigger picture often
    reveals itself to me.

    To do that, I try to figure what relates the piles, and I create a label for that category. I then try to figure out how categories fit together, and ultimately come up with a better understanding of the thought framework. From there, it doesn't take much work to fill out weaker areas of the outline, adding an idea here, moving an idea from there.

    The Software Tools.

    Even if you tried a tool like this before, it is time for a fresh look.  These tools have evolved and are worth having and using.

    Mindjet's MindManager is the tool I use most often. The current version is stable and mature, with a nice feature set and the ability to export information into a variety of programs and formats. I especially like the new option to export a live branching version of the mind map in PDF format.

    090607 MindJet Example

    Mindjet offers a template gallery for you to download 70+ sample maps to use.

    Another tool I've been using more of lately is Tony Buzan's iMindMap.  Buzan is a well-known proponent of mind mapping and has created a visually appealing tool.

    090607 Creative Solutions Examples with iMindMap

    It's compelling, and I'm trying to use it more. They also have a nice collection of videos explaining the software and concepts behind mind-mapping that is worth exploring.

    Personally, though, for real work I find myself going back to Mindjet product.

    In addition, there's an open-source version called FreeMind. Here's the link to try that tool as well.