Web/Tech

  • Building Your New Normal

    Last week, I introduced the idea of a new normal. 

    As a small business owner, in the midst of this pandemic, I'm not thinking about what's necessary to continue doing what I was doing yesterday. I'm focused on what I can do to prepare for tomorrow. Things won't go back to the way they were, but they will go back to normal. Only, it will be a new normal. It's a good lesson in being attached to a result, not a medium for a result. 

    The "new normal" is a topic that has been coming up in a lot of different places, because of the situation in which we all find ourselves. 

    These Are Not Unprecedented Times

    I've heard a lot of people use the phrase "these are unprecedented times" but they're not. Ignoring how many different industry-disrupting era's we've had (think the Dot Com Bubble), we've also had numerous pandemics, and we're better prepared to handle them today than at any other time in history.  

    Here is a short video from Simon Sinek that I thought was relevant, well-done, and inspiring. I encourage you to watch it.

     

    via Simon Sinek

    What Comes Next?

    "I'm not worried about what I do, I'm worried about why I do it." – Simon Sinek

    After some time, things will go back to "normal." Your goal for today should be to sow the seeds to today that prepare you for that day. I'll backtrack a step and acknowledge, if you're struggling to survive, survival comes first. Regardless, you need to make sure you're asking yourself the right questions.

    When you ask better questions, you get better answers. 

    What will you need when it's back to business as usual? How can you help others better themselves through this period? Who can you help?

    If the theme for right now is building a new normal, one of my life's themes is the belief in moonshots and exponential thinking. 

    Your response to this pandemic should be the same as your response to disruptive innovation. 

    You should be attracted to a result, not a medium, and paying attention to how you can capitalize on the wave. 

    Blockbuster, RadioShack, Kodak, all went out of business due to shortsighted myopia in the face of change. 

    Opportunity or Chaos … You get to decide!

    Onward!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – March 29th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – March 1st, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Mountains Out of Molehills: Media Inflammation

    The U.S. stock market had a rough week (like most markets around the world). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (the "Dow") had one of its worst weeks since the financial crisis in 2008, losing about 12%.

    Still, the Dow is near its historical highs, and the fundamentals of our economy aren't in freefall (as one might guess with all the fearmongering). 

    As I mentioned last week, many attribute the drop to the Coronavirus and its potential effect on trade, travel, industry, etc.  For example, several prominent news sources released (hopefully erroneous) articles stating that 38% of beer drinkers wouldn't drink Corona due to the Coronavirus.  Yup!

    There are two key points I want to make. The first is that the media tends to make mountains out of molehills (because their job is to get you to pay attention to their news) and the second is that markets are random to you or me. 

    Mountains Out of Molehills

    It shouldn't come as a surprise to you that the media exacerbates situations. Whether it's a terrorist attack, a virus scare, or a bad trading day – the media posts headlines and teasers designed more to attract attention than to educate. 

    The interactive graphic below shows the news cycle for things ranging from asteroids and vaccines to ebola and zika.  An interesting reminder.

    Screen Shot 2020-03-01 at 8.26.59 PM(Click To View Interactive Infographic) via InformationIsBeautiful

    The result is hysteria, fear and greed, or discretionary mistakes … all things better avoided. 

    Regardless, when it comes to trading, if you don't know what your edge is … you don't have one.  And it's tough to find a "signal" in a sea of noise. 

    Screen Shot 2020-03-01 at 8.22.22 PMvia Gaping Void

    Markets Are Random

    Experienced traders have a saying: it isn't the news that matters … what matters is the reaction to the news.  Consequently, part of the reason that markets seem random is that you or I can't predict the market's changes (accurately and reliably) based on the information we have.  In other words, if market profits were easily captured by being smart and well informed, professors wouldn't teach because they'd be on their yachts. 

    This past week,  you could attribute the losses to fear of the Coronavirus … but there are also fears around the 2020 election, the fact that stocks were already considered overvalued, fears of recession, and more.

    You don't know how much was caused by program trading or bots reacting to bots – or by a host of less obvious potential causes or contributing factors, like businesses either liquidating or taking positions in the regular course of their business (meaning as bona fide purchasers rather than speculators).

    The truth is no one knows for sure what caused the drop.

    Nonetheless, one thing that you should know is that volatility and noise will increase.  It is almost inevitable.

    Screen Shot 2020-03-01 at 8.44.56 PM

    Humans have a need for certainty and understanding. So when we don't know why something happens we find stories to fill in those gaps. But they're just that … They're stories. We can theorize all day long about what's moving the market, but it makes no difference.

    It's not what happens that matters, it is what you do that matters. 

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading, February 23rd, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Is China Going to Overtake the US In Artificial Intelligence?

    Currently, the US has a stronghold on Data Science and Artificial Intelligence (collectively, "AI") innovations and advancements.

    Meanwhile, China has been creating more papers than other countries about their AI advancements and innovation … however, a closer examination of the research suggests that many of their papers are of low quality, misleading, or even fraudulent. 

    Will China overtake the US in AI supremacy? If you look at their population along with their government's intent and directive towards AI leadership, it seems possible. 

     

    via TheDataScientist

    On a superficial level, I believe that the majority of advances in AI will prove to be beneficial – but there needs to be a balance between the promise and the peril of un-checked or un-regulated AI.  In other words, AI ethics, patriotism, and global balance of power considerations apply to a powerful force likely to terraform the planet.

    Absolute power has been shown to corrupt … I worry about the types of AI applications powerful nation-states will focus on, and whether they'll be truly forthcoming with breakthroughs or whether we are approaching a new cold war based around AI and Quantum Supremacy. 

    When you're doing something new and groundbreaking, it's human nature to want to keep it to yourself. It seemingly protects your interests, it prevents competition, obstruction or poaching. As well, AI is going to create an enormous impact on economic development, the nature of work, and competitive dynamics, so many governments are rushing to establish interest, education programs, and AI frameworks within their borders.

    Screen Shot 2020-02-22 at 1.42.27 PMvia Deloitte Insights

    AI Isn't a Zero-Sum Game (Unlike Trading)

    The reality is that AI has the chance not only to transform industries but societies as well. The benefits of properly executed AI are far-reaching and global. 

    When you share, maybe not the individual application, but the over-arching lesson or breakthrough, you enable all adopters to learn and grow. 

    Internally, in starting to write my book – Next on Wall Street – I spend a lot of time talking about our approach to building the right workforce, using the right data,  overcoming challenges, approaching AI from the right perspective, and, of course, using the right tools. 

    Collaboration is an important engine for creation. Having a lead is important … but at the beginning of a long journey, making progress and building momentum is crucially important.

    Screen Shot 2020-02-22 at 1.44.01 PMvia Deloitte Insights

    AI has a lot of green fields ahead. 

    Onwards!

  • Ending The World With A Paperclip

    Every week I send out an e-mail on Fridays with 20 light links and 20 market-moving links. If you're not getting that e-mail, you can sign up here. On Sundays, I send out our weekly commentary (which this article is a part of, along with 5 new light links and 5 new market-moving links (you can sign up here).

    My son sees the links before they're posted. He was interested in one of this week's links – The Way the World Ends: Not with a Bang But A Paperclip. 

    As a result, he played the game Paperclips to completion.  While he characterizes it as “wasting a whole night,” I think it gives us insight into the addictive nature of clicker games and into how the world as we know it could end with a paperclip. 

    There are spoilers ahead, so if you intend on wasting three hours on a browser game, you may want to skip this article … no, you're good? OK, here it is. 

    Screen Shot 2020-02-03 at 1.39.21 PMFrank Lantz via Decision Problem

    The game starts with you clicking a button to create paperclips but quickly spirals from there. Through setting up automation to create paperclips and then to have it start automatically buying the wire for you, you begin focusing on other projects – specifically creating a better trading algorithm to leverage the money you're making and improving your company's AI and Quantum Computing capabilities. 

    Hmm, starting to sound familiar …

    Initially, your AI is focused purely on maximizing paper clip demand and production.  It can increase marketing to increase demand and make your autoclippers more efficient to produce more paperclips per unit wire. If you look at the projects in the above screenshot you can see projects like: 

    • Full Monopoly – Establish full control over the worldwide paperclip market
    • Global Warming – A robust solution to man-made climate change
    • HypnoDrones – Autonomous aerial brand ambassadors

    Projects like curing cancer or solving global warming gain trust and allow you to invest more money in processors and memory (which end up setting you up to take over the world.)

    Fast forward to Zach beating the game …

    Screen Shot 2020-02-03 at 2.23.47 PMFrank Lantz via Decision Problem

    When you release the HypnoDrones all of the resources become available for Paperclip production, and you gain full autonomy. Your inner benevolent dictator feels satisfied and your mother’s expectations for your potential are partially fulfilled.

    At this point in the game, Zach had created less than half a billion paperclips but was worth several billions of dollars. It took him 2 hours and 44 minutes to beat the game. 

    Is it a game, a parable, a prediction – or an advanced intelligence’s test of human nature?

     

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 16th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Pay-To-Play: Bloomberg 2020

    Mike Bloomberg is spending an astonishing amount on his presidential run. Something you can do when you're a billionaire.

    Bloomberg is worth approximately $62B, so while most campaigns are being run on donations, he's outstripping them purely with his own bank account. 

    Hulfpx53laf41via theimpossiblesalad

     

    He's outspent everyone else in the Democratic field combined. His most recent stunt was a major social media push. 

    He leveraged several of the largest accounts on Instagram by collaborating with a company called – Meme2020. I wish that was a joke. 

     

     

    From the NYT, "Memers" include: 

     @MyTherapistSays, @WhitePeopleHumor, @TheFunnyIntrovert, @KaleSalad, @Sonny5ideUp, @Tank.Sinatra, @ShitheadSteve, @adam.the.creator, @moistbudda, @MrsDowJones, @TrashCanPaul, @cohmedy, @NeatDad, @FourTwenty, @GolfersDoingThings, @DrGrayFang, @MiddleClassFancy and @DoYouEvenLift.

     

    Those accounts reached a purported 60 million followers. They received $150 per post.

    The content is one of those  "stranger than fiction" experiences, where the posts are so surreal that the creators have to acknowledge "yes this is really sponsored by Mike Bloomberg."   

    This approach, and Bloomberg in general, raises several questions about running a race in 2020. 

    Astroturfing and Memes

    Remember, this is intended to sway public opinion in a political campaign. Bloomberg is a geriatric billionaire who has approximately 0% of the youth vote. While most of these memes mocked Bloomberg for being old and out of touch, the effort likely had the opposite effect. It's mildly insidious. 

    These posts have nothing to do with demonstrating Bloomberg's electability. They don't deal with stop and frisk, or any of his other policies. They're running the campaign a football player might run for student body president in high school. Luckily, there's been pushback. 

    The style of ads – astroturfing – where sponsors make their ads appear as if they're supported by grassroots participants, isn't new. But, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have done much better with seemingly authentic content driven by meme culture. 

    The question to ask about Bernie and Donald's success with the internet is, how much is authentic and how much is manufactured?

    Are We Creating A Plutocracy?

    Michael Bloomberg's campaign has crossed over $350MM in spending across channels. He went from a nonexistent option, to earnestly in the running through ubiquity.  

    It's worth asking the question "Can our democracy be bought?"

    presidential candidate net worth bubble chart

    via Business Insider

    A plutocracy is when a government is run by the wealthy elite. To a certain degree, money is power, and the wealthy's effect on the world is unavoidable. The inverse is also true, with influence and drive, money often follows.  The issue comes when the wealthy are the only influence, and when that money becomes the deciding factor in electability.

    It's hard to beat nearly unlimited money working in partnership with corporate support and media bias. The reality is, in the same way that corporations are people, they also have biases. Media companies undoubtedly influence the messaging you see. And, as impervious as we believe we are, the messaging we see influences the reality we perceive. 

    My takeaway for you is not to be for or against any candidate; it's to be pro-democracy and pro-meritocracy. 

    I hope we vote on the issues instead of just the personalities.

    Evaluate which issues are most important to you and which candidates best support those issues. Here's a link to Donald Trump's positions, and a link to the positions of the Democratic candidates.

    I'm curious to see who wins the Democratic primary, and what that means for the election. 

    Who you got?

    Do you think Bloomberg has a chance?

  • Spicing Up Valentine’s Day

    Valentine's Day is coming up. 

    Does it matter?  Could it? 

    Are you at least planning on having a little fun?

     

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    Love is an interesting concept. It can be a noun (a "thing") or a verb (an "action").  Perhaps it can be both …  an emotion that you act on? 

    Likewise, the words "I love you" can be a declaration of how you feel to someone … or a command to yourself to treat a person with love.

    On a practical note, I found a gift that really worked for me.  It's called "Lovebox" … and, no, it's not a sex toy. 

    via GIPHY

    Lovebox is a tool to deepen emotional connections.  It consists of a lidded wooden box with a heart attached to the front and a phone app for you to use to compose your messages.  Inside the Lovebox is a screen, a wifi connection, and a little motor.  When you send the box a message, the heart spins to notify the recipient that they have a message.

     

    The Lovebox gives me an opportunity to send special messages to my wife whether I'm home or away. I know that she loves seeing the heart spinning (and I believe that it makes us a bit closer each time she lifts the lid to see her message).  Lovebox creates anticipation.

    I was unsure how my wife would respond  … But she LOVES it … and looks forward to receiving messages (and reminds me if I forget or seem to be running late with them). 

    With that said, she made it clear she didn't want me pre-writing messages and having the app drip them to her like a marketing campaign.  So, of course, my next message was "A robot wrote this."

    We've been using Lovebox for over six months and it still seems fresh and fun.  Another example of how technology can improve human lives.

    Hope you  (and your special someone) have a Happy Valentine's Day.