Web/Tech

  • Is Cryptocurrency Here to Stay?

    I've always been a fan of Blockchain, but I've always been a bit more cautious of cryptocurrencies. 

    Blockchain is the technology foundation behind cryptocurrencies and an important enabling technology for the next generation of technological innovation.

    This week Coinbase went public at an astronomical valuation.  They were backed by venture capital firms like Andreessen Horowitz and Union Square Ventures.

    This makes sense to me because the VCs were able to capitalize on the "Fear of Missing Out" and "Animal Spirits" driving the market without the concentration risk of a particular cryptocurrency.  In a sense, it is the same reason I am bullish on Blockchain itself.

    Making sense of cryptocurrencies, however, is tougher for me to justify. There are over 1000 currencies out there – and the list is growing.  But valuation isn't really about first-mover advantages or features … You also must consider government policies and regulations and a host of other issues.

    Consequently, it's hard to recommend putting money in any coin as an investment.

    Speculating (or "trading") is a different conversation. 

    Clearly, there is a lot of money being made and lost … but how much of those gains and losses can be attributed to luck and how much to skill?  A better question is … If you traded cryptocurrencies, how much of your gains or losses would be due to luck versus skill?

    For the past few years, it felt as if the buzz had died down a little. Despite that, Bitcoin prices and many other cryptocurrencies continued to increase in value – though with much more volatility than normal investments. 

    This week, Dogecoin (a cryptocurrency that started as a meme) jumped from $.07 a coin to $.35 a coin, capitalizing on press and support from Elon Musk.  But it's not the only cryptocurrency doing well. 

     

    Top-10-growing-cryptocurrencies-2020-updated-47cfvia How Much

    A lot of the jump in the price of many coins recently coincided with the GameStop trading surge and was likely driven by the sentiment of those same retail traders. 

    Crypto's are interesting, in part, because they're a digital currency decentralized over a peer-to-peer network.

    The more people are willing to accept it as a medium of exchange, the more valuable it becomes (and the more it becomes a stable store of value).

    Supposedly, decentralization provides it safety from censorship and government interference – meaning it has value as an international currency, and as a currency for black-market transactions.  But, in my opinion, that remains to be seen (and I consider it unlikely for most cryptocurrencies).

    However, the worth of a Bitcoin clearly isn't just based on sentiment (on one hand, there are desires to avoid fiat currency vagaries, government interventions and scrutiny, while having a fair price discovery method, etc.  … on the other hand, there are also the costs to mine a Bitcoin, transaction fees, etc. and crypto has recently been under fire for its huge environmental impact).

    Compared to a reserve currency – whose worth is primarily influenced by trade value and other macroeconomic factors – watching crypto's volatility can be scary. 

    That being said, as adoption increases and more businesses enable it, it's possible that it will continue to legitimize. For the time being, I remain a long-term skeptic because there is too much working against it. 

    For an extra laugh, here's a still relevant video from 2017 on why you should invest all your money in Bitcoin. 

     

    via AwakenWithJP

     

  • The Rise of Augmented Reality

    Last week, Microsoft won a contract to provide the U.S. army augmented reality ("AR") headsets. It's worth up to $21.9 billion over 10 years, and they'll be providing over 120,000 AR headsets. Porn has been the leader in VR/AR innovation, but it's unsurprising that war is also being used to drive innovation. Human nature is human nature. 

    Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality have been around for a long time, but there's been a massive boom in innovation and interest over the last 3-5 years. Not only are the technologies becoming more affordable, but the animation is becoming more realistic, headsets are becoming more portable and longer-lasting, and our physical and virtual realities are beginning to blend. 

    We're moving towards a world where technology envelops every aspect of our lives … figuratively and literally. It's funny because I felt the same way in the late 90s as cell phones and the internet proliferated. It feels quaint in comparison to the ubiquity of technology today. Even our toasters are smart now. 

    The following (still fictional) video is thought-provoking. What happens when these new technologies are used to influence behavior, decision-making, and even your identity?  

     

    Keiichi Matsuda via  Vimeo

    Like many things, these technologies make possible awesome new capabilities (if used well) and horrific consequences (if abused or used in authoritarian ways). 

    Your doctor or nutritionist could help you make better choices for yourself. Your therapist or coach could help you perceive and respond differently to the challenges life presents you. Marketers could better influence your purchases. Employers could better monitor and measure your performance and productivity. And governments will not be far behind … doing what they do. It all toes the line between beneficial and creepy. 

    Because of where we are in the adoption curve, it is becoming more common to discuss bioethics and AI ethics.  Likewise, as we accelerate into an age of exponential technologies and mindsets, be prepared for increasing scrutiny of the promise versus the peril of various new technologies and capabilities.

    We live in interesting times, and only getting more interesting as it goes!

     
     

  • Mindfulness & Exponential Technologies

    Have you noticed that it's easier for most people to identify and solve someone else's problem than it is to do the same for themselves?

    Humans are emotional creatures.  As a result, our decision-making often suffers from fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes. 

    As an entrepreneur, I strive to be objective about the decisions I make. Towards that goal, using key performance indicators, getting different perspectives from trusted advisors, and relying on tried-and-true decision frameworks all help. 

    Combining all three creates a form of "mindfulness" that comes from dispassionately observing from a perspective of all perspectives.

    That almost indifferent and objective approach is also where exponential technologies like AI excel.  They amplify intelligence by helping make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually improve performance. 

    I shot a video about mindfulness and the future of A.I.

     

    Artificial intelligence is cool. The truth, however, is that AI is still relatively limited. Individual techniques (or algorithms) are good at "something".  The challenge is that they only focus on what they need to come up with their answer, without considering a different perspective. While it is good at what it is good at, it isn't necessarily good at empathetically understanding that a different technique, which comes up with a different answer, might be "right" as well.

    The future of AI likely will be based on swarm intelligence, where many specialist components communicate, coordinate, and collaborate to view a situation more objectively, better evaluate the possibilities, and determine the best outcome in a dynamic and adaptable way that adds a layer of objectivity and nuance to decision making.

    One of the lessons I teach to our younger employees is that an answer is not THE answer. It's intellectually lazy to think you're done simply because you come up with a solution. There are often many different ways to solve a problem, and the goal is to figure out the one that comes up with the best results.

    Even if you find THE answer, it is likely only THE answer temporarily.  So, it is really just a step in the right direction that buys you time to learn, improve and re-evaluate.

    Hope that helps. 

     

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – April 4th, 2021

    Happy Easter!

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

     

  • What Are NFTs?

    This month an NFT by an artist named Beeple sold at Christie's for over $60 million. That sentence raises more questions than it answers. 

    To make it even stranger, here's an example of Beeple's art. 

    60537d03fe6a340019acf58bvia Beeple

    Yes, that is Tom Hanks wearing a Bubba Gump shirt punching Covid-19. 

    So, what is an NFT, and why are they becoming so popular?

    NFTs stand for non-fungible tokens, which are unique digital assets on the blockchain. They've been around since 2014, but only recently blew up in popularity.  They're essentially collectibles … but digital.

    An NFT might be an image, a gif, a video, etc. But, because they're given a unique code on the blockchain, the ownership and validity of that item can be tracked. 

    Surprisingly, owning that NFT does not give you copyright of that digital asset. In fact, some images have been made into multiple tokens, and some tokens include multiple pieces of art which have been sold individually. The digital files themselves are still infinitely reproducible … but that code on the blockchain is not.

    In a sense, that means that NFTs are the digital equivalent of an autographed item. 

    In the past, when I've talked about Blockchain, digital art wasn't something I actively considered. Blockchain made sense to me as a way of proving provenance and helping establish the authorship and authenticity of an object – but I assumed it would be high-end physical art. 

    At the end of the day, if someone will pay for it, then you can sell it. That's part of the beauty of Capitalism. Most collectibles don't make sense from a macroeconomic value sense. They're worth something because of their value to their collectors. 

    Think about Beanie Babies, or Pokemon Cards, or even more mainstream collectibles like Sports Memorabilia or Whiskey. 

    While I won't say that "I get" the appeal of NFTs … I get it. As the world becomes increasingly digital, "real" and "tangible" have new meanings.

    Is something not "real" just because it's digital? 

    It reminds me of a painting by René Magritte called "The Treachery of Images."  The painting shows an image of a tobacco pipe. Below it, Magritte painted, "Ceci n'est pas une pipe," which is French for "This is not a pipe."

     

    The famous pipe. How people reproached me for it! And yet, could you stuff my pipe? No, it's just a representation, is it not? So if I had written on my picture "This is a pipe", I'd have been lying! — René Magritte

     

    If you're still a little lost, SNL had a funny skit last night with an NFT rap song. Enjoy. 

     

    via SNL

     
     
     
     

  • Streaming Wars

    Streaming services were big winners during the pandemic.  While that wasn't surprising, their subscriber growth and usage surge are impressive.

    VisualCapitalist put together an infographic highlighting the numbers. 

     

    Streaming-Service-Subscriptions-2020

    via VisualCapitalist

    I enjoyed the chart, and had a couple of different takeaways: 

    • Many companies tried to capitalize on the streaming wave by launching half-baked streaming services, but it's clear that the pioneers are still extending their lead on the fast followers. 
    • Despite Netflix already being the industry leader, they saw a 34% increase in 2020. 
    • China's largest provider – Tencent Video – only has 120M users, which is about 8% of China's population. In contrast, Netflix has 74M US users, which is about 23% of the population. 
    • The New York times is the only News subscription source big enough to make the list, yet it's at the very bottom with 6M users. Though, it did see a 61% increase in 2020. 
    • Disney+ grew 95M in its inaugural year, which is a credit to the brand recognition Disney holds.

    Interesting stuff and large numbers!

    How will the world re-opening impact those numbers?  How about 5 years from now? What do you think?

    Will virtual reality and augmented reality start to impact these numbers?

    With that much money and on the line, I expect this to remain an industry segment primed for innovation, growth … and a few surprises.

     
     

  • The Power of Naming Things

    I remember when my son finally got smarter than our dog. For the record, it took longer than I thought it would.

    With respect to human intelligence, language is likely the first domino. It allows "chunking" and makes learning new things more efficient, effective, and certain.

    Language is powerful in-and-of-itself. Using language consciously is a multiplier. Today, I want to focus on one such use of language – the power of naming things. 

    The Power Of Naming Things

    “I read in a book once that a rose by any other name would smell as sweet, but I've never been able to believe it. I don't believe a rose WOULD be as nice if it was called a thistle or a skunk cabbage.” – L.M. Montgomery, Anne of Green Gables

    Before I go into detail, I shot a video on the subject, with a few examples from our business. 

     

    Having a shared language allows you to communicate, coordinate and collaborate more efficiently. But it's hard to have a shared language when you're discussing something intangible. 

    That's where naming comes in. When you name something, you make the "invisible" visible (for you, your team, and anyone else who might care). 

    I've often said the first step is to bring order to chaos. Then, wisdom comes from finer distinctions. Naming is a great way to create a natural taxonomy that helps people understand where they are – and where they are going.

    I like thinking of it in comparison to value ladders in marketing. 

    Value-ladder

    Each stage of the value ladder is meant to bring you to the next level. By the time someone gets to the top of the value ladder, they're your ideal customer. In other words, you create a natural pathway for a stranger (meaning someone who doesn't know you well) to follow, to gain value, trust, and momentum onwards … ultimately, ascending to become someone who believes in, and supports, what you offer and who you are. 

    Ultimately, successful collaboration relies on common language. That is part of the reason naming is so important.  The act of naming something makes it real, defines its boundaries and potentialities, and is often the first step towards understanding, adoption, and support. 

    Creating "Amplified Intelligence"

    There are always answers. We just have to be smart enough. – John Green

    Here is an example from our business.  When we first started building trading systems, all we had was an idea. Then we figured out an equation (and more of them). Next, we figured out some methods or techniques … which became recipes for success.  As we progressed, we figured out a growing collection of useful and reliable ways to test, validate, automate and execute the things we wanted to do (or to filter … or prevent).

    For someone who didn't understand the organizing principles, it probably seemed like a mess.  Compounding the problem is that fear, uncertainty, and doubt are inhibitors to potential customers and stakeholders (like the employees working in a business).

    Coming up with the right organizing principle (and name) makes it easier to understand, accept, and adopt. For example, many traders and trading firms want to amplify intelligence – meaning they were looking to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and ultimately to perform better (which might mean making and keeping more money).  To help firms amplify intelligence, we created the Capitalogix Insight Engine (which is a platform of equations, algorithms, methods, testing tools, automations, and execution capabilities).  Within that platform, we have functional components (or modules) that focus on ideas like portfolio construction, sensible diversification, alpha generation, risk management, and allocation strategies.  Some of those words may not mean much to you, if you're not a trader, but if you are it creates an order that makes sense and a path from the beginning to the end of the process.

    It makes sense. It explains where we are – while informing what might come later.

    The point is that naming things creates order, structure, and a contextual map of understanding.

    It a compass heading that we can use to navigate and guide in uncertain territory.

    Hope that helps.

     
     
     
     
     

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – March 7th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

     
     

  • Top 20 Most Visited Websites (In The US)

    I saw a chart looking at the top 20 most visited websites in the U.S. last month. It's only mildly helpful, but it is interesting and a little funny. 

     

    Luuuf1mif0l61SEMRush via Reddit

    From a functional perspective, the most interesting data point to me is that Zoom has cracked the top 20 … but only barely. I would be interested to see this broken up into time-per-visit to see how that tips the scales. 

    From a humorous perspective, only three sites weren't US-based … and they're all porn sites. 

    As an aside, one of my more popular posts has been on how much time people spend on Pornhub. I don't know what this says about society, but it certainly says something.

    Have fun … and safe surfing.

     

  • Reflecting on The Time Value of Time

    I have always believed that you can predict a lot about your future, based on the quality of the people you spend the present with.

    That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical. 

    Over the years, I joined several business-leader peer groups like Strategic Coach,  Abundance 360, or Vistage. These groups are a great way to meet people and learn things … and they also provide you with access to the benefits of feedback from a group of trusted advisors, perspectives you might otherwise get from a counselor, and a flow of ideas and opportunities that wouldn't have crossed your mind or your desk. They allow participants to see, hear, and discuss things they don't normally think about, talk about, or even notice.

    Peer groups are also great at bringing blind spots to your attention and connecting you to trends transforming industries and the world.

    In these meetings, you often find a "nugget" in the discussion. Sometimes it stems from what is happening in the world.  Sometimes it alerts you to potentially useful relationships, opportunities, or gadgets.  And sometimes, the nugget comes from discussing a common problem or constraint (like the pandemic) with your peers. 

    This week, several of these groups prompted me to think about time (e.g., not wanting to sell time for money, wanting to live past 100, the "strangeness" of time during the past year, etc.). 

    Time is funny. Sometimes it seems to fly by … other times, it seems to stand still. Dan Sullivan uses the example of 10 minutes with a dying loved one compared to holding your hand on a stove for 10 minutes. One seems excruciatingly short, and the other seems excruciatingly long. 

     

    zefrank via YouTube

    The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

    How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?

    What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or miss an important event because "life happens" – but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person … doesn't it become more special?

    For contrast:

    • Would you rather spend that time dwelling on a mistake?
    • What about being angry at something out of your control?
    • What about doing work that drains you mentally and emotionally?

    In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life. 

    That is just an example, but clearly, it is worth taking the concept further. 

    To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

    • Hitting Flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
    • Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
    • Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say – "Wow!"
    • Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
    • Experiencing peace and relaxation;
    • Feeling pure joy.

    It's easy to get lost and take for granted these moments when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left … they take a whole new meaning. 

    TimeisrelativeHow can you maximize the time you have left?  Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

    To start, think about different time frames:

    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

     Make those lists … it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

    Seriously, try it.  

    Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose!