Web/Tech

  • Predicting The Future With Arthur C Clarke

    Last week, I shared a couple of videos that attempted to predict the future. As a result, someone sent me a video of Arthur C Clarke's predictions that I thought was worth sharing.

    Arthur C Clarke was a fantastic science fiction writer and a famous futurist. You probably know him as the author of 2001: A Space Odyssey.

    Here are his predictions from 1964, nearly 60 years ago.

     

    via BBC Archive 

    Arthur C. Clarke had a profound impact on the way we imagine the future. Known for his remarkable predictions, Clarke's ideas may have seemed farfetched at times, yet his thoughts on the future and the art of making predictions were grounded in reason.

    If a prophet from the 1960s were to describe today's technological advancements in exaggerated terms, their predictions would sound equally ridiculous. The only certainty about the future is that it will be fantastical beyond belief, a sentiment Clarke understood well.

    You can be a great futurist even if many of your predictions are off in execution, but correct in direction. For example, Clarke predicted that the advancements in communication would potentially make cities nonexistent. While cities still exist – in much the same way as in the 1960s – people can now work, live, and make a massive difference in their companies from anywhere on the planet, even from a van traveling around the country. Global communication is so easy that it's taken for granted. 

    As a science fiction author, some of what he wrote about might seem ridiculous today. For example, super-monkey servants creating trade unions.  Much of what he wrote about was what could happen (and to provide a way for people to think about the consequences of their actions and inactions).  As we discussed last week, humans often recognize big changes on the horizon … but they rarely correctly anticipate the consequences. 

    In summary, even though some of Clarke's predictions were farfetched, they were rooted in a deep understanding of human potential and the transformative power of technology. His ability to envision a fantastical future was not only a testament to his imagination, but also served as an inspiration for generations of scientists, engineers, and dreamers. By embracing the unknown and acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of the future, we can continue to push the boundaries of what is possible and strive for a world that is truly beyond belief.

    You won't always be 100% correct, but you'll be much closer than if you reject what's coming. 

  • Tech Over The Long Run

    Humans are wired to think locally and linearly … because that's what it took to survive in a pre-industrial age. However, that leaves most of us very bad at predicting technology and its impact on our future. 

    To put the future of technology in perspective, it's helpful to look at the history of technology to help understand what an amazing era we live in. 

    Our World In Data put together a great chart that shows the entire history of humanity in relation to innovation. 

    Longterm-timeline-of-technology

    Max Roser via ourworldindata

    3.4 million years ago, our ancestors supposedly started using tools. 2.4 million years later they harnessed fire. 43,000 years ago (almost a million years later) we developed the first instrument, a flute. 

    That's an insane amount of time. Compare that to this:

    In 1903, the Wright Brothers first took flight … 66 years later, we were on the moon. 

    That's less than a blink in the history of humankind, and yet we're still increasing speed. 

    Technology is a snowball rolling down a mountain, picking up steam, and now it's an avalanche being driven by AI. 

    But innovation isn't only driven by scientists. It's driven by people like you or me having a vision and making it into a reality. 

    Even though I'm the CEO of an AI company, I don't build artificial intelligence myself … but I can envision a bigger future and communicate that to people who can. I also can use tools that help me automate and innovate things that help free me to focus on more important ways to create value. 

    The point is that you can't let the perfect get in the way of the good.  AI's impact is inevitable.  You don't have to wait to see where the train's going … you should be boarding. 

    Onwards! 

  • Can We Predict The Future?!

    New technologies fascinate me … As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

    Second Thought has put together a video that looks at various predictions from the early 1900s. It is a fun watch – Check it out. 

    via Second Thought

    It's interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different. 

    In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content. This concept has become a reality through AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, which can provide customized information based on user inputs.

    Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to "turn off the button." 

    While not all predictions are made equal, we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it. 

    The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic. 

    via YouTube

    There's a lesson there. It's hard to predict the future, but that doesn't mean you can't skate to where the puck is moving. Even if the path ahead is unsure, it's relatively easy to pick your next step, and then the step in front of that. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable. 

  • Generative AI Explained By AI

    VisualCapitalist made an infographic on Generative AI using explanations by generative AI … a bit of a novelty, but still a helpful infographic. 

    Generative-ai-infographic-MAINvia visualcapitalist

    Basically, generative AI refers to AI that generates new outputs based on the data they have been trained on. Instead of recognizing patterns and then making predictions, they're used to create images, text, audio, and more. 

    Please let me know about any tools you think are especially worthy (or that I might have missed). 

    With Google and Microsoft entering the space, I think you're about to see a lot of tool churn as they push redundant tools out of the market. Short-term, that'll cause a bit of chaos. Long-term, it will mean that we'll have a better diversity of tools as innovators are forced to be more creative.

  • South Park, ChatGPT-4, and More …

    This week, South Park released an episode written entirely by ChatGPT … about ChatGPT. 

    Here's a clip. 

    … And it's funny … Which is a testament to the power of ChatGPT.

    Then, even more news started to come out. 

    First, Google and Microsoft released announcements about integrating AI into their engines and services (like Google Sheets and Microsoft Office). 

    Then, the most important news came out. GPT-4 was released ahead of schedule. 

    In December 2022, I shared that GPT-3 was trained on 100x more parameters than any previous language model. Well, here's what GPT-4 looks like compared to GPT-3. 

    Screenshot-2023-03-10-113420And it is also much more robust. Which is mildly scary to think about … but also very exciting. 

    I was already very excited about what GPT-3 and the applications built on it were making possible, but this takes it to another level. 

    Though, I have to be the voice of caution and remind you – don't rely on it as your business. It is a tool to help you increase the speed or scope of a business opportunity. But it isn't mature enough to blindly rely on it to be right – or even factually accurate. GPT-4 was optimized to sound good, which means that it might hallucinate or mislead you, even when it has the correct answer in its dataset. But it will sound good, even when it isn't right.

    That being said, it outperforms GPT-3 in every single way. 

    Screenshot-2023-03-14-at-1-36-02-pm
    via ZDNet

    ChatGPT (powered by GPT-4) is now multi-modal, meaning it will take both picture and video inputs. 

    Exciting stuff … Or at least progress.  Onwards!

  • My Thoughts On ChatGPT and the AI Revolution

    Last week, I shared a post about the rise of ChatGPT. To summarize … new AI tools (like ChatGPT) are cool, but they can be a distraction if you're not focused on your actual business goals.  Likewise, those tools seem smart, but they are not smart enough to replace you. 

    Below is a video containing an edited version of my contributions about using AI in business at a recent Genius Network meeting.

     

    via GeniusNetwork.

    With something as powerful and game-changing as AI, smart people find a way to take advantage of it (rather than finding ways to avoid or ignore it).

    If you keep your head in the dirt, you'll get left behind like Blockbuster, Kodak, or RadioShack. 

    With that said, one of the key things I've noticed about new tech is that there's massive churn.  You've seen it with the blockchain and cryptocurrencies.  The companies, products, and modalities that pioneer the industry aren't always the ones who make it.  I think it's because they focus on technology instead of solving their customers' real problems.

    Pioneers often end up with arrows in their backs and blood on their shoes.  Too often, this causes them to give up before they achieve real and lasting success.

    You don't have to rush, even if it feels like you're falling behind.  To use a surfing metaphor, you shouldn't ignore the coming waves, but you can certainly take the time to wax your board, get in the ocean, and choose which wave you want to ride. 

    You can catch the little waves and take advantage of ChatGPT or Midjourney, but as a final reminder, if everyone is doing it, it's not a competitive advantage … it's the playing field. 

  • Tech Trends To Watch in 2023

    Technology is on the mind of most people I have talked to recently. Even with Big Tech letting go of droves of employees, the innovation happening in the world is impressive. 

    VisualCapitalist put out a list of 11 trends to look out for this year. Check it out. 

    Tech-Trends-2023

    via visualcapitalist

    As always, no list gets it entirely correct. Lists like this are made to spark interest and influence the direction of tech development. However, I've been impressed with what visualcapitalist has gotten right in the past. 

    A lot of the trends on the list make sense. India has been a massive investment space in tech over the last few years, and it's about time for more results to show. Healthcare is a massive investment space, and we're seeing a lot of innovation go to the medical space before migrating to other industries … on top of health monitoring, other specifics like menopausal care could see more investment, especially with an increase in women-led and women-focused companies. 

    As well, Fintech has been hit hard since 2020. Many of the bulwarks of the industry have been sliced down as a result of covid-19, market turmoil, the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and more. These years haven't been without learnings. New market conditions require new approaches, but the past 2+ years have been a great opportunity for adaptation and advancement. After winter comes spring. 

    What trends do you think are missing, and what trends do you think won't come to fruition?

  • The Rise of ChatGPT

    I originally talked about ChatGPT in mid-December.  Since then, it’s been all my entrepreneurial friends can talk about. 

     

    IMG_1329

    via TheRundownAI.

    The speed of adoption is unrivaled, and it’s a sign of bigger things to come. 

    Unfortunately, not all news around ChatGPT has been positive.  Microsoft released a version of Bing powered by ChatGPT, and it has been a mess. Bing’s chatbot has threatened its users, it claimed to be watching its developers through their cameras, and much more. 

    Despite that, ChatGPT and many other new tools are being used to great effect.  For example, this episode of a Conan talk show was generated entirely by AI – the words, the voices, the video – all using AI.  Click to watch how it turned out.

     

    via No Reruns

    I was part of a panel on ChatGPT and the state of AI last week.  As you might guess, a large part of the conversation focused on how businesses could use these new and innovative tools.  It’s no secret that the list of potential applications is extensive.  For example, I now use ChatGPT and Type.AI to help edit articles.

    While they provide both context and content for the articles, their text tends to be "fluffier" than I prefer. It can be reminiscent of someone trying to sound smarter than they actually are. Instead of taking something complex and making it simple, it takes one good idea and hides it in some circuitous logic and language. After I clean it up, I'm usually happier with the article as a result.  

    However, I think about valuing AI’s uses in a similar way that I value discounts.  When you come across a deal in a store that makes you think, “Wow, I need this”… It’s not really saving you money if you weren’t planning to purchase the item in the first place.  It’s an additional cost.

    If you’re tempted to start using new tools just because they’re exciting, realize that they are likely to be a distraction that could end up hurting your productivity.

    Tools like ChatGPT can be used to great effect if they assist you in doing things you need (or want) to be done.  In that case, they can help you create a bigger future with what becomes possible.

    When used correctly, automation and innovation can help improve efficiency, effectiveness, and the certainty that you achieve desired outcomes.  Meanwhile, they don’t charge you an hourly wage, they won’t get sassy when you tell them all the things they messed up, and they’re ready to work at all hours of the day. 

    Here are three concepts to consider. 

    1. AI can help you create a bigger future … but you have to know where you want to go (because activity isn’t progress if it isn’t taking you toward your destination).

    2. If you’re afraid of Artificial Intelligence, you’re not listening.  AI will inevitably become more powerful and widely used.  Look to how it can help you get what you want rather than focusing on how to avoid the peril or feeling bad that other people use it better or more than you do.

    3. If in doubt, begin.  The 25-year journey starts with a single step.

    Hope that helps.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 19th, 2023

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

     

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Why Less Is Often More

    The concept of “less is more” has gained popularity recently, transcending its roots in minimalism.  This idea can be observed in many areas, ranging from the resurgence of simplistic design aesthetics to the widespread popularity of decluttering guru Marie Kondo …or in the renewed interest in Stoicism.  Minimalism has become an essential aspect of modern life, where people seek to simplify their lifestyles and focus on what truly matters.

    The abundance of information and distractions vying for our attention has created a cluttered and overwhelming environment.  We can’t buy everything we see on TV, deep-dive into every interesting topic we learn about on the internet or track everything happening worldwide.  Our limited time and resources force us to choose and prioritize what truly captures our interest and deserves our attention.

    In addition to the overwhelm created by the competition for our attention, it is becoming increasingly difficult to discern what is real and trustworthy because of deepfakes, intentional misinformation, and even the seemingly benign advent of AI-generated content that blurs the lines of reality.

    The current state of information saturation and manipulation makes it imperative that we approach every piece of information with a healthy dose of skepticism and take the time to verify its authenticity.

    Given these limitations, it’s only natural to prioritize and focus on what is relevant and meaningful to us, using our limited time and resources wisely.  The competition for attention demands that we exercise caution, discernment, and purpose in our choices.

    There are two critical distinctions that impact your approach to information, as well as your sense of priority and choice of strategies and activities. 
     
    The first is whether you are a Specialist or a Generalist.  It isn’t hard to imagine that these two types have pretty different reading lists, habits, and sources of happiness or fulfillment.
     
    The second distinction is whether you are a Simplifier or a Multiplier (which is a concept that Dan Sullivan at Strategic Coach has written a book about).  To get to where you are, you’ve been successful at two things in your business career.  You’ve simplified things, which gave you an advantage.  And you multiplied things, which gave you an advantage.  Said a different way, as a simplifier, you took something complex for everybody else and made it simple.  And as a multiplier, you took something that was a new solution, and you had success multiplying it out in the world so that many people could get the advantage of your simplifications.

    The truth is, while we all do both, we default to being primarily a Simplifier or a Multiplier. 

    The best partnerships happen when you pair the two.  For example, amazing conversations happen when a simplifier says to a multiplier, “I’ve got this elegant solution … What would you do with it?” Each has something the other doesn’t, and the combination is often exponential.

    I am primarily a simplifier.  So, I tend to look for people or technologies to multiply what I produce.

    I shot a video on the topic.  Click here to watch.

     

    The internet and global digital economy enable you to find an audience for almost anything. 

    No matter how far you niche down to find your true calling, there are likely people who are just as excited about what you do as you are. 

    In an age where we’re inundated with attention-stealers and ways to spend our time, it’s helpful to remember that less can be more.