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  • Foreign Direct Investments

    Against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, supply chain upheaval, and rapid technological transformation, foreign direct investment remains a bellwether of global confidence and strategic priorities.

    Looking back to 2024, the patterns of FDI offer a window into what the world’s investors value most—and what new risks and opportunities are on the horizon.

    In a rapidly shifting global landscape, investors are constantly on the hunt for both opportunity and resilience. Which sectors and regions captured the lion’s share of foreign direct investment in 2024—and what fueled these evolving priorities?

    The Global State of FDI in 2024

    Visual Capitalist created an infographic that shows Foreign Investors allocated more than $1 trillion across the top 10 global sectors in 2024, highlighting the scope and realignment of worldwide capital movements.

     

    This infographic visualizes the top 10 sectors for foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024, based on global data for over 17,000 FDI projects.

    via visualcapitalist

    Sector Standouts: Winners and Surprises

    Now let’s zoom into specific industries.

    Renewable energy topped the list, drawing $270.1 billion in FDI. Even so, renewable energy FDI declined — mainly due to rising material costs, tougher regulations, and delayed projects. Despite these setbacks, long-term prospects in renewables are robust.

    Perhaps the most surprising winner of 2024, the communications sector not only rebounded but grew by an astonishing 84%, far outpacing previous years. This likely reflects accelerated 5G rollouts and infrastructure expansions in both developed and emerging markets.

    Semiconductors followed closely, likely reflecting the growing infrastructure requirements of global reliance on AI.

    Notably, FDI in real estate increased despite a critical labor shortage, sparking questions about how investment is responding to workforce constraints.

    Meanwhile, traditional manufacturing showed minimal growth, as investors appear wary of ongoing supply chain disruptions and increasing automation across the industry.

    Regional Focus: Asia’s Rise & India’s Transformation

    Regionally, the FDI tide was far from even. Asia emerged as the dominant destination for FDI. While India, alone, attracted investment across more than 1,000 distinct projects, driven by robust economic reforms and a burgeoning market.

    What’s Next? 

    FDI patterns are not static reflections but dynamic forecasts of the next big global moves. Consequently, geopolitics and regulatory shifts impact FDI as well.

    As global investment patterns continue to evolve, the next wave of foreign direct investment will likely redefine which strategies (and which regions) lead. Will emerging trends hold, or will new surprises shift the map again next year?”

    Where would you bet global capital will go next?

  • How Long You Have Left

    We only have a limited time on this earth … and a lot of it is spent on frivolous activities. 

    How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones … or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

    The answer is a lot.

    Although this chart hasn't been updated recently, it still provides a helpful glimpse of the bigger picture. 

     

    How-much-time-we-have-infographic (1)via Anna Vital

    Nine years in front of entertainment devices – another 10.5 years spent working. You get the idea.

    If you have goals you want to accomplish, places you want to go, and lifestyle aspirations to experience, this puts the idea of finding and living your passion into perspective. 

    Do you have the time to waste it?

    VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

     

    OC_Life-Expectancy-by-Age_1600px_Oct31

    via visualcapitalist
     

    According to this calculator, since I'm over 60, I only have about 20 years left.   I expect more!

    There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 … but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75. 

    While these numbers appear high, there are two key considerations. First, COVID-19 heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates increased. 

    Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which may differ from your own (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc. 

    Ultimately, I believe Purpose is one of the most significant catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire … not because they're done working, but because they're done striving. 

    If you're not growing, you're dying!

  • The World Is Getting Older … You Are Too

    We're on the cusp of a major demographic shift. 

    Fertility rates are dropping and life expectancy is rising, basically across the globe. On the surface, not explicitly bad. It's great that improvements in healthcare, technology, and quality of life are resulting in a larger senior population. 

     

    Aging-Population_04-webvia visualcapitalist

    In 1980, the average person was 26.5 years old. Today, the average person is 33.6 years old. 

    Meanwhile, population growth has halved in the same time period. 

    Based on this chart, the global population would start declining in 2085, as the average age rises to 42. By 2100, the global population will begin declining. 

    Of course, there's variation depending on the country. 

    Most countries are thinking about how to increase fertility rates. If fertility rates decline, and your population lives longer, you end up with a larger percentage of the population that cannot or does not work anymore. That results in more expenditure – especially in pension and healthcare systems -  without an accompanying increase in GDP or productivity. 

    It seems unlikely that something won't dramatically affect these trends over the next 60 years.

    Even if expenditure becomes a non-issue, countries are unlikely to be happy with declining population growth, in part because of declining production resources and tax income, but also because of diminished global power. 

    What do you think? 

  • Global Happiness Levels in 2025

    Are you Happy?

    What does that mean? How do you define it? And how do you measure it?

    Happiness is a surprisingly complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones. And upon a bit of reflection, happiness is bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience. 

    Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) … humans strive for happiness.

    Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

    Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses). Below is an infographic highlighting the World Happiness Report data for 2025.

    Screenshot 2025-05-11 at 9.59.45 PM

    World Happiness Report via Gallup

    Click here to see a dashboard with the raw worldwide data.

    I last shared this concept in 2022. At the time, we were still seeing the ramifications of COVID-19 on happiness levels. As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed. The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people. 

    Ultimately, happiness scores are relatively resilient and stable, and humanity persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and more.

    While scores in North America have dropped slightly, there are positive trends. 

    The 2025 Report

    In the 2025 report, one of the key focuses was an increase in pessimism about the benevolence of others. There seems to be a rise in distrust that doesn't match the actual statistics on acts of goodwill. For example, when researchers dropped wallets in the street, the proportion of returned wallets was far higher than people expected. 

    Unfortunately, our well-being depends on our perception of others' benevolence, as well as their actual benevolence. 

    Since we underestimate the kindness of others, our well-being can be improved by seeing acts of true benevolence. In fact, the people who benefit most from perceived benevolence are those who are the least happy. 

    "Benevolence" increased during COVID-19 in every region of the world. People needed more help, and others responded. Even better, that bump in benevolence has been sustained, with benevolent acts still being about 10% higher than their pre-pandemic levels. 

    Another thing that makes a big difference in happiness levels worldwide is a sense of community. People who eat with others are happier, and this effect holds across many other variables. People who live with others are also happier (even when it's family). 

    The opposite of happiness is despair, and deaths of despair (suicide and substance abuse) are falling in the majority of countries. Deaths of despair are significantly lower in countries where more people are donating, volunteering, or helping strangers. 

    Yet, Americans are increasingly eating alone and living alone, and are one of the few countries experiencing an increase in deaths of despair (especially among the younger population). In 2023, 19% of young adults across the world reported having no one they could count on for social support. This is a 39% increase compared to 2006. 

    Takeaways

    In the U.S., and a few other regions, the decline in happiness and social trust points to the rise in political polarisation and distrust of "the system". As life satisfaction lowers, there is a rise in anti-system votes.

    Among unhappy people attracted by the extremes of the political spectrum, low-trust people are more often found on the far right, whereas high-trust people are more inclined to vote for the far left.

    Despite that, when we feel like we're part of a community, spend time with others, and perform prosocial behavior, we significantly increase perceived personal benefit and reported happiness levels.

    Do you think we can return to previous levels of trust in the States? I remember when it felt like both parties understood that the other side was looking to improve the country, just with different methods. 

    On a broader note, while we have negative trends in the U.S., the decrease is lower than you might expect. The relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or a set-point of happiness.

    Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.

    Remember, throughout history, things have gotten better. There are dips here and there, but like the S&P 500 … we always rally eventually. 

    Onwards!

  • Choosing To Be More Human in the Age of AI

    Last week, I asked, “What do you do when AI gets better than you?” One of the key takeaways from that post was that AI is freeing you up to be more human.

    My son (who helped write it) said he wished we used more examples and stories that dealt with “the future of being human” rather than “the future of work”. So, we decided that would be the “seed” idea for this post.

    It’s funny, but when I started to gather my thoughts about it … I felt a rush of emotions. 

    Emotions and Logic

    Emotions have frustratingly little to do with logic. Humans are driven by impulse and often by those that don’t represent our best nature. History shows that we’re driven by fear, greed, scarcity, and self-preservation. And, truthfully, that’s all “human”. But humans are also beautiful, meaning-making machines … and throughout our often messy history, we’ve done amazing things and somehow survived.

    Appreciating Life

    Watching my father die was a catalyst for me to appreciate life and living more than I did. I gave a TEDx talk about that and wrote articles about the time value of a life worth living. At the end of his life, it was clear that he appreciated things more (a family dinner, a kiss goodbye, the beauty of a sunset) and that he would have done almost anything for more time. Two hidden gifts came from that “scarcity”. The first gift was recognizing that we got to choose how much more “life” we got out of the last part of my dad’s life. The second gift was realizing that you don’t have to wait for the end of life to “live like you only have a year left”.  

    Final Goodbye

    I have another memory from his deathbed as well. He had been out of it for a while, and I was worried that I wouldn’t get a chance to say a final goodbye and to tell him how much I loved him. Luckily, he woke up, and we had a few final lucid moments together. He looked me straight in the eyes, told me how much he loved me, and then with a touch of humor said, “Okay, so tell me how this relates to Veritas …” which was the original name of the company I was running at that time. His final message to me was a reminder that life is not really about work.

    Looking Beyond Work

    Transparently, I still look at the world through a lens and filter that too often focuses on work. Yet I also recognize and strive to pay attention to the deeper meanings beyond that.

    Getting back to the point of the article, it is easy to see how AI relates to work … yet, it might be more important to consider how AI is going to affect the rest of your life. 

     

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    In the last article, we discussed how Lee Sedol, one of the world’s top Go players, retired after losing to AlphaGo. When asked about it, Lee said, “Losing to AI, in a sense, meant my entire world was collapsing.” He also explained, “I could no longer enjoy the game. So, I retired.” 

    While it’s certainly his right to retire, I think it might have been the wrong choice … or, at least, not what I would have done in that situation.

    If playing Go was his passion, it might have been better for him to change how he “keeps score” to focus on his progress, rather than the distance between him and what AI could do.

    As long as you believe you can get better (and have hope for continued improvements), there are many ways to leverage the capabilities and opportunities that come from that.

    Many people engage in sports or games even though they know they won’t become the greatest of all time. The same is true for almost any hobby or pursuit (whether it’s in art, literature, philosophy, craftsmanship, or other fields). There will always be someone or something that can do it better, faster, or more efficiently. However, that shouldn’t be the sole determinant of whether you get joy or energy from pursuing a path of getting better at what you want to excel at.

    One of my core beliefs is that the changes coming to the world will free us up to be more human. That means we have to choose what to pursue.

    What’s more human than pursuing something difficult? 

    The Beauty of Passion

    In a world increasingly shaped by AI’s precision and efficiency, choosing to do something purely out of passion becomes a powerful act of self-expression. When a machine can paint more photorealistically or compose music with perfect mathematical harmony, human creativity finds new purpose not in competing, but in conveying emotion, imperfection, and lived experience.

    The Heartbeat of AI is Still Human_GapingVoid

     

    As we focus on growing businesses and changing the world, I think it’s easy to lose sight of the passion that first got us into business. 

    I do the research and write this newsletter, not because I expect it to make me a ton of money, or because AI can’t do it … but because I enjoy it, and it’s almost like meditation for me. 

    My son plays rugby despite enduring countless injuries, significant financial cost, and realizing that it takes increasing amounts of his time to stay competitive. From a logical standpoint, it makes almost no sense for him to spend scarce resources or risk such extreme bodily harm in his 30s. But he’s passionate about rugby, enjoys playing it, and recognizes how it improves other parts of his life. It is an excellent example of the time value of a life worth living. He made a conscious choice that this is what it takes to be, do, and have what he values most.

    The Power of Fun 

    Artificial Intelligence is probably better than you at poker … does that mean you shouldn’t have some friends over and try to win their money?

    Does it mean you shouldn’t try to learn a new instrument or write a book?

    We often undervalue fun because it doesn’t always produce measurable outcomes, but fun is not frivolous. It’s how we bond, relax, and explore parts of ourselves we can’t access through obligation or structure.

    We intrinsically understand this. You don’t worry about being the best when you’re playing pick-up basketball or throwing a football with your son. You’re focused on creating memories and having fun. 

    Joy doesn’t need justification. 

     

    Striving To Be The Best

    Ultimately, you have to be willing to lose to be the best. In every pursuit, there will always be someone ahead of you. Whether it’s a faster runner, a sharper mind, or a newer technology, I want to be the man in the arena. 

    It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat. – Theodore Roosevelt, Citizenship in a Republic

    The point has never been to be the best at everything … but to strive for your best.

    I’ve always believed the game isn’t over until I win, not because I can’t lose, but because the belief empowers me to get back up again. 

    Being second best — or tenth, or just a beginner — doesn’t diminish your effort; it validates it. The climb matters, even if you never reach the summit. Humans are wired for persistence and purpose, not perfection. 

    Humanity got where we are today because people weren’t happy with the status quo. They pursued greatness and innovation. Sometimes, what seems like failure ends up being the most significant success. 

    AI is an incredible opportunity. It’s an opportunity to increase your productivity, to transform your business, and to redefine industries. It’s also an invitation to redefine your future and how you spend time. You can use it as an excuse to get smaller or bigger … the power is in your perspective.

    Hope that helps.

  • Why Don’t We See Aliens?

    So, if the math says it's likely that there are aliens … why don't we see them?

    In 2020, I mentioned Israeli officials who claimed they had been contacted by Aliens from a Galactic Federation – and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together.

    There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret. Here are some links to things you might find interesting if you want to learn more about this.

    So, while some may still believe aliens don't exist – I think it's a more helpful thought experiment to wonder why we haven't seen them. 

    For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high-probability estimates for their existence. 

    To simplify the issue, billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies) are similar to our Sun. Consequently, there must be some probability that some of them will have Earth-like planets. It isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us. Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies, interstellar travel isn't absurd. 

    Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and length of time we are talking about) … it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

    If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb, a particle physicist, tackles that in his book and this TED Talk.   

    via TED

    In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

    1. Habitability and stability of their planet
    2. Building blocks of life 
    3. Technological advancement
    4. Socialness/Communication technologies

    But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, the moon's effect on climate, etc. 

    Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life, and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. Even if there were others, it's entirely possible that they're extinct by now. 

    E23

    What do you think?

    Here are some other links I liked on this topic. There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

    To Infinity and Beyond!

  • The Psychology of Gamblers

    March Madness, Vegas, and Wall Street share a lot in common. 

    Over Time … The House Wins

    Casinos only offer to play games that they expect to win. In contrast, gambling customers play even though they know the odds are against them.

    Why does this happen? The rush of a win, the chance of a big win, and random reinforcement are common factors that incentivize people to play the lotto, go to a casino, or try to trade.

    Chemicals like adrenaline and dopamine play a part as well. Even in a sea of losses, your body can't help but crave the chemical reward of even a small win.

    The "House" knows this and engineers an experience that takes advantage of it.  

    In the case of casinos, every detail is meticulously crafted to extract you from your money – from carpet patterns to the labyrinthian layouts, the music, the lights, and even the games themselves. 

    Here is an infographic that lays it out for you. 

    Casino-psychology-infographicBojoko via DailyInfographic

    Most people aren't gamblers … the fear of losing big inhibits them. However, when people were instructed to "think like a trader," they showed considerably less risk aversion when gambling. And I bet you have no problem filling out a March Madness bracket, even if you put money on the line. 

    The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics. 

    When you almost get it right – when you guess the first round of March Madness correctly, when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, when you just mistime a trade to get a big win – you're more likely to play longer, and place bigger bets … because you're "so close." 

    It's human nature to want to feel in control. 

    This is why you find a lot of superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing … if you throw the dice in this particular way … if you check your holdings at this time every day … you have control. 

    There is a big difference between causation and correlation. 

    It is not hard to imagine that, for most traders, the majority of their activities do little to create a real and lasting edge.  

    Skill vs. Luck

    There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.

    In a casino, poker, and blackjack are considered games of skill. In contrast, slot machines are considered a game of chance.

    In trading, predicting markets is much different than using math and statistics to measure the performance of a technique.

    Much of what we do is to figure out how to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.

    In trading, "Alpha" is the measure of excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.

    We believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance … Meaning much of what we do is figure out what to ignore or avoid so that more of the games we play are games of skill rather than games of chance.

    Are you playing the right game?

  • Starting With Why

    ___________________

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    Inspiration is stronger than persuasion.  It gives people a sense of purpose and belonging that has little to do with external incentives or benefits.

    Simon Sinek, who is quite charismatic and well-spoken, is delivering this message to a rapidly growing fan base. 

    My team thought Simon was inspiring, engaging, and insightful.

    You can watch a short video that introduces his material below. 

    In addition, you can explore more of his ideas in his book, Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action.

     

    An Example of Finding the Right Person for a Job.

    Who do you believe will do a better job, someone who takes a job because of the salary and benefits … or someone truly inspired to accomplish the job's purpose? 

    Phrased that way, of course, you know the answer.  Still, how can you leverage this to better select customers and employees?

    For example, Simon uses the story of Sir Ernest Shackleton to illustrate this concept.  Shackleton was preparing to lead the first expedition across Antarctica in 1914.  Legend has it that when seeking crew members for his journey, Shackleton placed the following ad in a newspaper:

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    "MEN WANTED FOR HAZARDOUS JOURNEY. SMALL WAGES, BITTER COLD, LONG MONTHS OF COMPLETE DARKNESS, CONSTANT DANGER, SAFE RETURN DOUBTFUL. HONOUR AND RECOGNITION IN CASE OF SUCCESS.
         -  SIR ERNEST SHACKLETON"

    When the expedition became stuck in the ice and could not be rescued for 22 months, not a single man was lost.  The reason Simon gave for their unlikely survival was that Shackleton hired survivors that could deal with the situation and were aligned with the mission and purpose.

    Can you imagine writing an ad like that to attract the right people to your cause?

    Watch This Video.

    Here is a video of Simon speaking at a TED Conference.  It is an excellent intro to his stuff. 

    Other Resources:

    _____________________

    It's now more than ten years later, and Simon is one of the most prominent leaders in leadership development and has published five books, to much acclaim. 

    Part of his success is the charisma and pith with which Simon speaks and writes – but a large part is his focus on what makes humans human.  He's not preaching a leadership mantra focused on the bottom line and revenue; he's focused on the aspects of human nature that don't change.  He's focused on purpose and the elements of leadership that apply to everyone – not just CEOs. 

    As we move into an era of increased volatility – both in markets and business – these leadership principles will become more important. 

    Understanding your "WHY" is vital if you want to make a difference (and not be replaced by an AI). It’s also vital in making discipline the easier choice.

    If you haven't read any of his books, they're all good, but I suggest "Start With Why" and "The Infinite Game."

  • Happy Birthday, Mom

    Yesterday was my Mother's 85th birthday. 

    Her children surprised her with over 60 family and friends at dinner last night. Here is a photo of us with her at the party.

    20250125 Birthday Party

    My mom is quite the woman. She went to Cornell, taught Spanish Literature at Temple University, and has volunteered for countless good causes. At 40, as her kids became more self-sufficient, she decided to go to law school and become a lawyer to help those who needed it most. That doesn't even begin to capture it! For example, she still serves as a museum docent and is an active member of many clubs and organizations. In addition, after my Dad died, she chose to serve as a hospice counselor to help families going through that difficult time. After doing that for a while, she decided that she wanted to continue – but in a more positive way. So, to help make things better and easier to bear, she became a clown to bring light to people struggling. That is not a sentence I imagined writing a few years ago.

    My mom also loves poems, wordplay, and puzzles.

    As part of her celebration, we had everyone (OK, almost everyone) write poems for her. 

    I did not write a poem (though I did write something) … and I also chose not to use ChatGPT (or any other large language model) to help with what I wrote. 

    I feel like I should explain that. What I did write, came from the heart.

    If my goal had simply been to come up with a poem, I would have used ChatGPT or one of its competitors. The truth is, many people at the event did exactly that, and I was surprised at the quality of their output.

    With that said, there's something meaningful about the process of thinking deeply about something (in this case, my Mother) and choosing which things to highlight (or set aside), what to poke fun at, and which things to express gratitude for. The act of thinking and writing is valuable … separate and apart from the output generated.

    The same is true for your life as well. Being and Doing are both important. 

    Your identity and strategies combine to create the life you are living. Said a different way, the things you choose to focus on (and what you make them mean) shape your perspective and guide your actions. 

    That is also why it's vitally important to consciously create a compelling future that calls you forward (and keep score by tracking your progress in ways that resonate with your values).

    Here is a small excerpt from my love note to my Mother.

    The Golden rule says “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” But sometimes, it’s important to remember to be as kind to yourself as you are to others.

    As I think about you and what I wish for you, Mom, it’s that you’re as kind and understanding to yourself as you’ve been to those around you.

    It’s important to recognize the progress you’ve made with the good you’ve done, rather than what could have or should have happened – or how many things you still feel the need to do.

    I think one of the most useful definitions of “intelligence” is that it is the ability to get more of what you want – and for you, Mom, I think that is a sense of happiness, contentment, and purpose. In your words – a Happy Heart.

    Happy Birthday, Mom … and many more! 

    I suspect we all know the power of purpose. With a big enough WHY, the HOWs don't seem to matter.

    The average age at this party was probably 80 – and at least one of them was 100! Think how important it is for them to have a sense of purpose and accomplishment!!

    But if it is important for them … it is probably more important to you because of something I call The Time Value of Life (which we'll discuss next week).

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – January 12th, 2024

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links: