Trading

  • Top 20 Internet Giants

    For most of my life, I've been a tech early adopter. 

    Here are some snippets from that journey. I fell in love with the Mac 128 in the 1980s. My frustration with the limitations of floppies caused me to fly across the country to get one of the earliest 20 MB hard drives (which I didn't know how I would ever fill up). Much to the consternation of those who thought only secretaries should be seen typing, I was one of the first lawyers to use a computer to do work. I waited in lines to grab Palm Pilots and cool phones before smartphones became a thing. And, somehow, I don't enjoy setting up my computer anymore (OK, I do – but not like I did before). 

    A lot has changed, while much stays the same.

    In the late 90s, I was obsessed with the early web scene. I spoke at computer events like Comdex and MacWorld, and I was able to see and identify many of the companies that would become major players. Many of those "major players" expanded into the dot-com bubble, then disappeared.

    I've watched that cycle play itself out several times as the landscape and players changed and evolved.

    There is a chart that captures a lot of those changes by listing the 20 Internet Giants that ruled the web since 1998. 

    Take a look. 

    The-20-Internet-Giants-That-Rule-the-Webvia visualcapitalist

    Humans are very good at recognizing major turning points. However, with that said, they often are much worse than they would believe in regards to understanding the implications of the changes they so easily predicted.

    Who would have guessed that AOL would become almost wholly irrelevant? Or that Yahoo would make so many horrible decisions and still last to 2022?

    In the early days of the internet, most of the leaders were aggregators and search engines. Now we have a much broader set of influencers. The top 20 players in the space are also playing much larger games than their 1998 predecessors. Most of the leaders are platforms that help other products succeed as well. 

    I'm curious to see what names are added to the list in 5 years. 

    Who do you believe we will see there in 2027?

  • Changing the Course of History

    A little over a week ago, a deepfake of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was used to try and convince Ukraine's soldiers to lay down their arms and surrender against Russia.  On top of being shared on social media, hackers got it onto news sites and a TV ticker as well. 

    While it's not explicitly known that Russia did this – there's a long history of Russian cyberwarfare, including many instances of media manipulation. 

    Luckily, while the lip-sync was okay in this video, several cues helped us know it was fake. 

    Unfortunately, this is only the tip of the iceberg.  Many deepfakes aren't as easy to discern.  Consequently, as we fight wars (both physical and cultural), manipulated videos will increasingly alter both perceptions and reality. 

    Even when proven to be fake, the damage can persist.  Some people might believe it anyway … while others may begin distrusting all videos from leaders as potential misinformation. 

    That being said, not all deepfakes are malicious, and the potential for the technology is attractive.  Production companies are already using it to splice in actors who might have aged or died into scenes in movies.  Deepfake technology can also be used to allow a celebrity to sell their likeness without having to waste their time doing all the filming necessary to produce the intended finished product. 

    Deepfake technology also allows us to create glimpses into potential pasts or futures.  For example, On July 20th, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed safely on the moon.  They then returned to Earth safely as well.   What if they didn't?  MIT recently created a deepfake of a speech Nixon's speechwriter William Safire wrote during the Apollo 11 mission in case of disaster.  The whole video is worth watching, but the "fake history" speech starts around the 4:20 mark. 

    "Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace." – Nixon's Apollo 11 Disaster Speech

     

    MIT via In Event Of Moon Disaster

    Conclusion

    “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped.“ – Orwell, 1984

    In an ideal world, history would be objective; facts about what happened, unencumbered by the bias of society, or the victor, the narrator, etc.  On some level, however, history is written by the winners.  Think about it … perceived "truth" is shaped by the bias and perspectives of the chronicler.

    Consequently, history (as we know it) is subjective.  The narrative shifts to support the needs of the society that's reporting it. 

    The Cold War with the Soviet Union was a great example.  During the war, immediately thereafter, and even today, the interpretation of what transpired has repeatedly changed (both here and there).  The truth is that we are uncertain about what we are certain about.

    But while that was one example, to a certain degree, we can see this type of phenomenon everywhere.  Yes, we're even seeing it again with Russia.

    But it runs deeper than cyber-warfare.  News stations color the story told based on whether they're red or blue, and the internet is quick to jump on a bandwagon even if the information is hearsay.  The goal is attention rather than truth.

    Media disinformation is more dangerous than ever.  Alternative history can only be called that when it's discernible from the truth … and unfortunately, we're prone to look for information that already fits our biases. 

    As deepfakes get better, we'll likely get better at detecting them.  But it's a cat-and-mouse game with no end in sight.  Signaling Theory posits that signalers evolve to become better at manipulating receivers, while receivers become more resistant to manipulation. 

    I'm excited about the possibilities of technology, even though new capabilities present us with both promise and peril. 

    Meanwhile, "Change" and "Human Nature" remain constant.

    And so we go.

  • A Look at Codebases

    When I was a child, NASA got to the Moon with computers much less sophisticated than those we now keep in our pockets.

    At that time, when somebody used the term "computers," they were probably referring to people doing math.  The idea that businesses or individuals would use computing devices, as we do now, was far-fetched science fiction.

    Recently, I shared an article on the growing "compute" calculations used in machine learning.  We showed that the amount of compute used in machine learning has doubled every six months since 2010, with today's largest models using datasets up to 1,900,000,000,000 points.

    This week, I want to take a look at lines of code.  Think of that as a loose proxy showing how sophisticated software is becoming.

     

    Screen Shot 2022-03-11 at 4.31.30 PMvia informationisbeautiful

    As you go through the chart, you'll see that in the early 2000's we had software with up to approximately twenty-five million lines of code.  Meanwhile, today, the average car uses one hundred million, and Google uses two billion lines of code across their internet services. 

    For context, if you count DNA as code, the human genome has 3.3 billion lines of code.  So, while technology has increased massively – we're still not close to emulating the complexity of humanity. 

    Another thing to consider is that when computers had tighter memory constraints, coders had to be deliberate about how they used each line of code or variable.  They found hacks and workarounds to make a lot out of a little.

    However, with an abundance of memory and processing power, software can get bloated as lazy (or lesser) programmers get by with inefficient code.  Consequently, not all the increase in size results from increasing complexity – some of it is the result of lackadaisical programming or more forgiving development platforms.

    In better-managed products, they consider whether the code is working as intended as well as reasonable resource usage. 

    In our internal development, we look to build modular code that allows us to re-use equations, techniques, and resources.  We look at our platform as a collection of evolving components. 

    As the cost and practicality of bigger systems become more manageable, we can use our intellectual property assets differently than before. 

    For example, a "trading system" doesn't have to trade profitably to be valuable anymore.  It can be used as a "sensor" that generates useful information for other parts of the system. It helps us move closer to what I like to call, digital omniscience. 

    As a result of increased capabilities and capacities, we can use older and less capable components to inform better decision-making.

    In the past, computing constraints limited us to use only our most recent system at the highest layer of our framework.

    We now have more ways to win.

    But, bigger isn't always better – and applying constraints can encourage creativity.

    Nonetheless, as technology continues to skyrocket, so will the applications and our expectations about what they can do for us.

    We live in exciting times … Onwards!

  • No Crying In Trading

    As a fund manager, I am always looking for ways to eliminate emotions (like fear and greed).  During crazy times, like these, that is harder than seems.

    But as a father whose son just got married, the equation was different.  It's been six years since I originally shared this video; but as we near their wedding anniversary, I re-watched this video … and decided to share it again. 

    One of my son's instructions to the "Officiant" was to make me cry.  I made it through the Ceremony; then, I got a chance to say a few words at the Wedding Reception.  Here they are …

     

    The words "I love you" are powerful.  Most people consider it an expression of emotion.  It can also be a promise …

  • Artificial Intelligence Is Great, Artificial Stupidity Is Scary

    When I first got out of Law School in the 1980s, "professionals" didn't type … that was your assistant's job (or the "typing pool," which was a real thing too).

    At that point, most people couldn't have imagined what computers and software are capable of now.  And if you tried to tell people how pervasive computers and 'typing' would be … they would have thought that you were delusional.

    My career has spanned a series of cycles where I was able to imagine what advanced tech would enable (and how businesses would have to change to best leverage those new capabilities).

    Malcolm Gladwell suggests that it takes 10,000 hours of focus and effort for someone to become an expert at something.  While that is not necessarily true or accurate, it's still a helpful heuristic.

    Today, we can do research that took humans 10,000 hours in the time it took you to read this sentence.  Moreover, technology doesn't forget what it's learned – As a result, technological memory is much better than yours or mine.  Consequently, the type and quality of decisions, inferences, and actions are better as well.  Ultimately, we will leverage the increased speed, capacity, and capabilities of autonomous platforms.  While that is easy to anticipate, the consequences of these discontinuous innovations are hard to predict.  Things often take longer to happen than you would think.  But, when they do, the consequences are often more significant and more far-reaching than anticipated.

    Still, technology isn't a cure-all.  Many people miss out on the benefits of A.I. and technology for the same reasons they didn't master the hobbies they picked up as an adolescent. 

    I shot a video discussing how to use technology to create a sustainable creative advantage.  Check it out. 

     

     

    Many people recognize a "cool" new technology (like A.I.), but they underestimate the level of commitment and effort that mastery takes. 

    When using A.I. and high-performance computing, you need to ask the same questions you ask yourself about your ultimate purpose. 

    • What's my goal?
    • What do I (or my systems) need to learn to accomplish my goal?
    • What are the best ways to achieve that goal (or something better)?

    Too many companies are focused on A.I. as if that is the goal.  A.I. is simply a tool.  As I mentioned in the video, you must define the problem the right way in order to find an optimal solution. 

    Artificial Intelligence is a game-changer – so you have to approach it as such. 

    Know your mission and your strategy, recognize what you're committing to, set it as a compass heading and make deliberate movement in that direction. 

    I end the video by saying, "Wisdom comes from making finer distinctions.  So, it is an iterative and recursive process… but it is also evolutionary.  And frankly, that is extraordinarily exciting!"

    I hope you agree.

    Onwards!

  • A Look At Gas Prices

    Gas prices feel very high right now … but are they? Well, obviously, yes. But, the degree is less than most of us would guess. 

    H5fgxoifi3k81schi854 via usinflationcalculator (Interactive Version)

    This chart shows the real cost of gas based on inflation. It also goes back to 1992. It makes a pretty obvious case for inflation being the real culprit. That being said, the rise is still worth watching. On the one hand, the rise in gas prices isn't unprecedented; on the other hand, a surge this sharp has only happened five times in the past 30 years … and it's been over a decade since the last time it happened.

  • Doom And Gloom From Charlie Munger

    In case inflation wasn't stressing you out enough, Berkshire Hathaway's Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger, channeled Nouriel Roubini in his tirade on the dangers of inflation. 

     

    via Yahoo Finance

    For context, the CPI has inflation rising at the fastest rate in over 40 years. Meanwhile, Munger's current working hypothesis is that our currency will become worthless over the next hundred years. 

    Munger paints a dire picture – but there are a lot of "what-ifs." The infusion of cash into the economy during the pandemic certainly pushed us in a dangerous direction (despite saving the economy). However, 100 years is a long time, and there are many steps we can take as an economy to slow that snowball. One of those includes the continuing scale of innovation. As new technologies arise, and the value chain of industries changes, so does the economics of our nation. 

  • The Future of Spaceflight

    When I talk about exponential technologies, I almost always end up discussing Tesla and SpaceX. 

    Elon Musk is an interesting guy.

    220220 Elon

    Whether they end up doing everything they say they're going to, his companies massively accelerate the rate at which capabilities turn into products and platforms for future growth.

    I recently shared the Elon quote: "Stop being patient and start asking yourself, how do I accomplish my 10-year plan in 6 months?  You'll probably fail, but you'll be a lot further along than the person who simply accepted it was going to take 10 years!"

    I don't know if he really said it.  Nonetheless, it sounds like him … and I agree with the sentiment.

    The New Space Race.

    When I was young, the Space Race captured the heart and souls of Americans.  But, for the past few decades, it was in the background.  Recently, that has changed.  The space race is getting hot again.  Resources are pouring into this area, and SpaceX is leading the pack. 

    In 2018, I shared excitement that the boosters he used were reusable.  Today, people are talking about how the newest ship, Starship, could render other rocket programs obsolete. 

     

    Cost-of-space-flight-chartvia visualcapitalist

     

    While there's always room for competition, I can see many programs falling far behind if they haven't been focusing on reusability.  Assuming Starship delivers on its promises (keeping in mind that Elon is often over-confident about his timeline), it will be cheaper and more versatile than anything out there. 

    I think it's naive to assume that other companies aren't doing interesting things … but by the time they release anything comparable, it's possible that SpaceX will already dominate the market. 

    The economics of reusable rocketry isn't yet cost-effective for most potential customers, but Musk is undoubtedly moving the needle in the right direction. 

    Hopefully, he can continue to raise the expectations of both consumers and producers.  The results could be out-of-the-world.

    Right now, suborbital trips from Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin cost between 250K to 500K per trip – and trips to actual orbit cost over $50 million. 

    However, I believe the cost of space travel – and space tourism – will drop radically within my lifetime. 

    It's hard to comprehend the scale of the universe and the scale of our potential … but that's what makes it worth exploring!

    Even though we've only been talking about space travel, there are so many other exponential technologies that this applies to just as well.

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 13th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Functional Mapping: Nature’s Desired Path

    There's a concept in design and transportation called Desire Paths. 

    The desired path is the path that users take despite the intended path by the builder of a community or application. 

    Here's a great example. 

    6tj18p093vb81Reddit via itstartswithani

    And, here's a whole community forum focused on desire paths. 

    It's often easier to take advantage of human nature … or just nature … than fight against it. 

    To that effect, I shot a short video on how this relates to your business and tech adoption. I call it functional mapping. Check it out. 

     

    Understanding the natural path for both technology and your clients makes it easier to understand and anticipate the capabilities, constraints, and milestones that define your path forward.   That means you actually have to understand the different types of users and what they expect to do.

    6a00e5502e47b28833026bded38d1b200c-600wi

    Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desired capabilities and automation.

    It isn't really about building the technology, rather, it is about supporting the desire.

    You don’t have to get it right.  You just have to create momentum in the right direction.   Meaning, if you understand what is coming, you don't have to build it … but you should figure out where you want to build something that will move things in the right direction.

    You’ve probably heard me talk about how Capabilities become Prototypes. Then Prototypes become Products.  And, ultimately, Products become Platforms.

    This model is fractal.  That means it works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

    What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.

    SpaceX's goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now … but once it's achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.

    This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them. 

    It helps you anticipate which potential outcomes you want to accelerate.  Rather than simply figuring out what the easiest next step is … you have to figure out which path is the best next step to your desired outcome.

    The world is changing fast! Hope you're riding the wave instead of getting caught in the riptide!