Trading

  • Where Does a U.S. Tax Dollar Go?

    With tomorrow being the deadline to submit your taxes (if you haven't filed an extension), it feels appropriate to look at where your tax dollars go. 

     

    VORO_Tax-Dollar_MAIN

    via visualcapitalist

    This is obviously an approximation, but it's an interesting one nonetheless. 

    Social Security is the largest draw, but it is also one of the public services at the highest risk of failure due to an increasingly large aging population (with fewer active workers contributing to the system). 

    Unsurprisingly, Health and National Defense are the next biggest draws from your taxes. Medicare and Medicaid are expensive, and we do have the largest military force, by a large margin. We spend more on defense than the following ten countries combined. 

    It's interesting to see … but I might add a cent to my tax dollar if it meant they'd fix all these potholes. 

  • March Is Always Madness …

    March Madness is in full swing and will have the world's attention for a few more days.  As you can guess, almost no one has a perfect bracket anymore.  Yale beat Auburn, James Madison beat Wisconsin, Michigan State beat Mississippi State, and by the end of day 1, only 2,000 brackets remained intact.  That's .008% of all brackets submitted. 

    Before 24/7 sports channels, people watched the weekly show "The Wide World of Sports."  Its opening theme promised "The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat!" and "The human drama of athletic competition." That defines March Madness.

    The holy grail is mighty elusive in March Madness (as in most things).  For example, the odds of getting the perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (2.4 trillion based on a Duke Mathematician's formula that takes into account rank).  It's easier to win back-to-back lotteries than picking a perfect bracket.  Nonetheless, I bet you felt pretty good when you filled out your bracket.

     

    via Duke University

    Here's some more crazy March Madness Stats: 

     

    Feeding the Madness

    "Not only is there more to life than basketball, there's a lot more to basketball than basketball." – Phil Jackson

    In 2017, I highlighted three people who were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness: a 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world.  None of them had the same success even a year later.

    Finding an edge is hard – Maintaining an edge is even harder.

    That's not to say there aren't edges to be found. 

    Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets.  Some people use gut feelings, some base their decisions on current and historical performance, and some use predictive models.  You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision.  That makes you feel powerful.  But knowing the history, their ranks, etc., can help make an educated guess, and they can also lead you astray. 

    The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading.  As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't.  We want the bragging rights of that sleeper pick, of our alma mater winning, of the big upset. 

    You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or musical-loving co-worker.

    In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses. 

    The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased.  Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear-cut answer.  We don't know who will win or what makes a perfect prediction. 

    Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint.  People make decisions based on many factors — sometimes irrational ones — which can create inefficiencies and complexities.  It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them, but they're there to be found. 

    In trading, AI and advanced math help remove biases and identify inefficiencies humans miss.

    Can machine learning also help in March Madness?

    “The greater the uncertainty, the bigger the gap between what you can measure and what matters, the more you should watch out for overfitting – that is, the more you should prefer simplicity” – Tom Griffiths

    Basketball_5faa91_405080

    The data is there.  Over 100,000 NCAA regular-season games were played over the last 25+ years, and we generally have plenty of statistics about the teams for each season.  There are plenty of questions to be asked about that data that may add an extra edge. 

    That being said, people have tried before with mediocre success.  It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports – hustle, the crowd, momentum - and it's hard to overcome 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds. 

    Two lessons can be learned from this:

    1. People aren't as good at prediction as they predict they are.
    2. Machine Learning isn't a one-size-fits-all answer to all your problems.

    Something to think about.

  • The First Neuralink Patient’s #1 Priority

    Neuralink received approval for human trials of its PRIME Brain-Computer Interface in September 2023.

    In January, Elon took to Twitter and announced that the first human recipient had received an implant and was showing promising neuron spike detection. 

    Neuralink designed PRIME to record and transmit neural data to interpret brain activity into movement intention. The PRIME Brain-Computer Interface empowers disabled individuals by enabling them to communicate and engage with the world in innovative and impactful ways, such as regaining the ability to speak and interact with others. In the future, advancements in the PRIME Brain-Computer Interface could even assist individuals with spinal cord injuries learn to walk again.

    The first patient was 29-year-old Noland Arbaugh, a complete quadriplegic who had lost sensation and suffered paralysis from below the shoulders after sustaining a spinal injury during a diving accident eight years ago.

    When we first began receiving updates about him, we were excited to hear that he could use a computer cursor. That was a big step … and the start of many others. Now, we're being told that he recently used the technology to stay up all night playing a video game called Civilization 6.

    Similarly, in 2022, a completely paralyzed man used his brand-new brain implant to ask his caregivers for a beer. 

    It sounds like a joke, but these are the types of stories that make me optimistic. Both examples highlight a new capability … but also a deeper purpose, freeing the human to enjoy being human and enhance the quality of their life.

    This is a great reminder. Media coverage often focuses on the fear of an increasingly tech-driven world, and what it means for humanity … but the best uses of technology allow us to be more human. 

    What used to be science fiction is becoming reality, and possibilities are becoming inevitabilities. 

    Onwards!

  • Overhyped Technologies (Or Not)

    Just because something is overhyped doesn’t mean it’s bad.

    Gartner’s Hype Cycle is a great example of this concept.  It highlights the likely cycle of inflated expectations, disillusionment, and, ultimately, utility.

    The key takeaway from the Hype Cycle model is that much of what happens is predictable … and that a significant portion of the extreme swings are based on human nature rather than technical merit.

    Haters are going to hate, and sometimes a fad is more than a fad.  For example, here is a front-page article from the New York Times in 1879.  It questions the utility of electric lights as a replacement for gas-powered lighting.  In case you were wondering, that one might have been a bright idea.

     

    Screen Shot 2022-05-15 at 8.45.33 PM

     

    The point is that humans have proven themselves to be pretty bad at exponential thinking.  We’re not bad at recognizing periods of inflection, but we often have trouble recognizing the consequences of the change (and the consequences of those consequences) and predicting who the winners and losers will be as a result of those regime changes. 

     

    Screen Shot 2022-05-15 at 2.26.23 PM

     

    There are countless examples.  Here’s a funny one from Maximum PC Magazine in 2008.  It shows that hype isn’t always a sign of mistaken excess.  This list purported to show things that were getting too much attention in 2008.  Instead of being a list of has-beens and failures, many of these things rightfully deserved the attention and hype they were getting.

     

    Maximumpc

     

    It’s been over 15 years since this came out.  How did the predictions hold up?

    Apple has become one of the world’s biggest and most successful companies (with a market cap approaching 3 Trillion dollars).  The iPhone has sold over 2.2 billion phones and accounts for over half of Apple’s total revenue.  Meanwhile, Facebook has become Meta and is also one of the biggest and most successful companies in the world (with a market cap of well over a Trillion dollars).  And the list keeps going: HD video, 64-bit computing, downloading movies from the internet, and multiple GPU video cards. 

    Take just that last one. Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of GPU growth, and it is one of the highest-performing stocks of the past few decades (with a market cap of well over 2 trillion dollars). 

    It’s hard to believe how poorly this image aged. 

    Remember that the trend is your friend while it continues.

    Just because something is overhyped – doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be excited about it. 

    The key is to stop thinking about the thing that’s being hyped and, instead, to start thinking about how to use things like that to create what you really want.

    Onwards!

  • House Prices Versus Income in America

    As we discuss the economy, I also think about my youngest son, who is looking at houses right now. 

    In countless ways, today's youth have it easier than we did. Access to opportunities, the internet, capital sources, etc., has gotten more accessible, yet there are a few things that have gone the other way, such as buying a house. 

    OC-U.S.-Income-Housing-Gap_Feb14

    via visualcapitalist

    The chart above does not show interest rates or inflation. For example, in 1984, the 30-year fixed rate was close to 14%, over double what it is now. 

    But, to put things in perspective … I moved to Texas in 1986. Part of my rationale was that I could buy a "nice" home for a little less than my initial starting salary as a lawyer.

    Recently, policy decisions have vastly increased house prices. How much? Median house prices are nearly 6x the median household income in America. Meanwhile, the economics of renting are significantly better than buying. According to the WSJ, it's 52% more expensive to buy than rent due to mortgage prices. 

    When housing costs are this high, consumer spending and mobility are reduced, making individuals less likely to relocate for job opportunities. 

    We live in interesting times. Sometimes, I miss the good old days.

  • Checking Back In with Dr. Doom

    In 2018, while in New York for work, I was invited to a party that ended up being a pretty unique experience. 

    The rules were that for the first hour it would be first names only, no discussion of what you do, etc. Part of the fun was figuring out who was there and why they were special. And, there were a lot of pretty impressive people in the room. As I was wondering who was able to bring all these experts and thought leaders into one home for a house party, I found it was Nouriel Roubini – the infamous Harvard economist known as Dr. Doom. 

    Nouriel Roubini's predictions have earned him the nicknames "Dr. Doom" and "PermaBear" in the media. He predicted the housing bubble crash in 2007-2008, and has extensively studied the collapse of emerging economies. 

    So, after a tumultuous few years for the global economy, I thought I'd check back in and see what he was saying. 

    It turns out he's less pessimistic than you would guess. He's pretty optimistic about 2024 growth and not particularly worried about a recession—though he is expecting a downturn. 

    He also thinks there's a possibility that growth remains above potential, and inflation remains sticky. That would be good news for the economy, but bad news for markets – as the Fed likely wouldn't cut as much or as soon as people are hoping for. 

    Now, Nouriel has been wrong before, and I don't trust any singular pundit. My mindset is to listen to voices that don't already believe what I do. I tend to be optimistic as a rule, and I've been optimistic on things like blockchain, whereas Nouriel has been staunchly negative.

    But, he's a smart and educated voice who can justify his opinions. And I end up more educated – and often modifying my stance a little bit – based on the context he's able to give. 

    By the way, as I was editing this post, I saw that Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio admit they got warnings on the US economy wrong — for now.

    Are you listening to voices outside of your preferred channels?

  • The Most Valuable Brands In 2024

    In the past, most profitable companies built or sold tangible products. The Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, land owners, etc.

    Over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, many of the leaders are in tech, IP, and other intangible assets.

    Here are the most valuable companies as of today. 

    100-most-valuable-brands-of-2024via visualcapitalist

    Now, to be clear, these aren't the most profitable companies. This is about value. 

    That being said, it wouldn't be surprising to see Apple top either of those lists. Meanwhile, Tesla has dropped off the Top 10 list due to more EV competition and probably some backlash from Elon Musk's Twitter purchase. 

    Also, unsurprisingly, Nvidia is the fastest-growing brand right now. 

    With technology becoming more ubiquitous and businesses booming, I think the trend will continue, which makes protecting your businesses' intangibles even more important. 

    Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors. Remember, however, that anything you get a patent on becomes public knowledge – so be careful with your trade secrets.

  • Warren Buffett’s Lifetime Legacy

    Warren Buffet is 93 – and he just released his 2023 annual letter.  Berkshire Hathaway saw record profits of $97 billion last year.  If you scroll to the bottom of this year's letter, you can see he's got an almost 20% CAGR since 1965 and an overall gain of 4,384,748% since 1964.  That is hard to imagine.  It's even harder to do. 

    I think part of it comes from how grounded in reality he is.  He focused on what doesn't change instead of what does and on who his "actual" competition is. 

    “Berkshire should do a bit better than the average American corporation and, more important, should also operate with materially less risk of permanent loss of capital. Anything beyond “slightly better,” though, is wishful thinking. This modest aspiration wasn’t the case when Bertie went all-in on Berkshire – but it is now.” – Buffett on Berkshire's prospects for shareholders like his sister, Bertie

    Buffet is not looking for lottery tickets; he's stacking little wins.  There's power in that.  He also pointed out that as stock trading has become more accessible – it's made daily buying and selling easier, but also more erratic.  That, unfortunately, benefits the "house" more than these individuals. 

    Warren Buffett is a legend for many reasons.  Foremost among them might be that he's one of the few investors who clearly has an edge … and has for a long time. 

    From 1976 to 2017, his Sharpe ratio (excess return relative to risk) was approximately double the overall market.  He even did well in 2021.  Berkshire Hathaway passed a trillion in assets last August (up from $700 billion in 2019) – and is still performing well. 

    While many people consider Buffett to be an investor, I also consider him to be an entrepreneur.

    At the age of six, he started selling gum door to door.  Obviously, selling gum wasn't the key to his path to riches.  So, how did he make his first million?  Here's a video that explains it.

    via Coolnimation

    He made his first million at age 30 (in 1960).  For context, a million dollars in 1960 would be worth about $10.4 million today.

    Buffet has always been honest about his bread-and-butter "trick" …  he buys quality companies at a discount and holds on to them.

    It is fascinating to recognize how much the world has changed – and yet how much it has stayed the same.

    For one last bonus, here's one of my favorite quotes from his 2011 letter. 

    “Money will always flow toward opportunity, and there is an abundance of that in America. Commentators today often talk of “great uncertainty.” … No matter how serene today may be, tomorrow is always uncertain.

    Don’t let that reality spook you. Throughout my lifetime, politicians and pundits have constantly moaned about terrifying problems facing America. Yet our citizens now live an astonishing six times better than when I was born. The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: Human potential is far from exhausted, and the American system for unleashing that potential – a system that has worked wonders for over two centuries despite frequent interruptions for recessions and even a Civil War – remains alive and effective.

    We are not natively smarter than we were when our country was founded nor do we work harder. But look around you and see a world beyond the dreams of any colonial citizen. Now, as in 1776, 1861, 1932 and 1941, America’s best days lie ahead.”

    Further, the Pragmatic Capitalist highlights this lesson:

    Nothing stopped so many innovators and entrepreneurs more than the fear of failure.  If you allow yourself to be constantly scared into thinking that the world is doomed you will never take that risk which might result in great reward.  And perhaps worse, if you never fail you will never learn to get up, brush yourself off, move on and succeed in the future.  This does not mean you should wander through this world with great complacency and blind optimism, but if you deny yourself the ability to maximize your full potential, you will always come up short.

    Fear, uncertainty, and greed are all hallmarks of every year.  There are undoubtedly ebbs and flows to everything, but we are clearly marching towards greener pastures. 

    A great lesson to learn from Buffet is that the game isn't about the next year or even three years … it's about a lifetime and the generations that come after us. 

    Let's continue to make our tomorrows bigger and better than our today. 

    Onwards!

  • The Doomsday Clock Is Ticking

    There are a number of destabilizing events that make me hope for peace, love, and prosperity.  There are increasingly dangerous active military conflicts, a contentious election in front of us, and a host of other issues related to the promise or peril associated with the clash between exponential technologies and human fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.

    With that said, random worry isn't a good strategy.  I like to measure subjective things as objectively as possible.  With that in mind, this post discusses something called the Doomsday Clock.

    The History of the Doomsday Clock

    The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 (following the successful testing of the first atomic bomb by the United States) to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons.  The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world.  The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.

    In 1953, after both the US and Soviet Union tested hydrogen bombs, the clock was set at two minutes to midnight, which is the closest it has ever been to a global catastrophe.  In recent years, the clock has taken into account not only nuclear weapons but also climate change and other emerging threats.

    The Significance of the Doomsday Clock in Modern Times

    Today, the Doomsday Clock remains an important symbol of humanity's vulnerability and the need for urgent action to prevent a global disaster.  The clock serves as a reminder that we must work together as a global community to address existential threats facing our planet.

    The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board determines where to set the clock each year based on international events and scientific advancements.  As such, it provides an objective measure of how close we are to destruction.

    Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one.  A list of the most significant existential threats to humanity includes:

    1. Nuclear War: The threat of atomic weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.

    2. Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.

    3. Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.

    4. Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not adequately regulated and controlled.

    5. Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.

    6. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.

    Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat.  So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive.  Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.

    The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947.  In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times.  The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds.  This was a small but significant shift.  But, this year, 2024, there was no shift. 

    Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception. 

    Doomsday-shifts

    via flowingdata

    The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity.  Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act. 

    And necessity is often the mother of invention.

    We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions).  Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges. 

    With collaboration among the brightest minds across the globe and private industry, we can solve even the world's most significant problems.

    If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity. 

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 18th, 2024

    282649

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links: