Sports

  • March Is Always Madness …

    March Madness is in full swing and will have the world's attention for a few more days.  As you can guess, almost no one has a perfect bracket anymore.  Yale beat Auburn, James Madison beat Wisconsin, Michigan State beat Mississippi State, and by the end of day 1, only 2,000 brackets remained intact.  That's .008% of all brackets submitted. 

    Before 24/7 sports channels, people watched the weekly show "The Wide World of Sports."  Its opening theme promised "The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat!" and "The human drama of athletic competition." That defines March Madness.

    The holy grail is mighty elusive in March Madness (as in most things).  For example, the odds of getting the perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (2.4 trillion based on a Duke Mathematician's formula that takes into account rank).  It's easier to win back-to-back lotteries than picking a perfect bracket.  Nonetheless, I bet you felt pretty good when you filled out your bracket.

     

    via Duke University

    Here's some more crazy March Madness Stats: 

     

    Feeding the Madness

    "Not only is there more to life than basketball, there's a lot more to basketball than basketball." – Phil Jackson

    In 2017, I highlighted three people who were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness: a 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world.  None of them had the same success even a year later.

    Finding an edge is hard – Maintaining an edge is even harder.

    That's not to say there aren't edges to be found. 

    Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets.  Some people use gut feelings, some base their decisions on current and historical performance, and some use predictive models.  You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision.  That makes you feel powerful.  But knowing the history, their ranks, etc., can help make an educated guess, and they can also lead you astray. 

    The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading.  As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't.  We want the bragging rights of that sleeper pick, of our alma mater winning, of the big upset. 

    You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or musical-loving co-worker.

    In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses. 

    The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased.  Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear-cut answer.  We don't know who will win or what makes a perfect prediction. 

    Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint.  People make decisions based on many factors — sometimes irrational ones — which can create inefficiencies and complexities.  It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them, but they're there to be found. 

    In trading, AI and advanced math help remove biases and identify inefficiencies humans miss.

    Can machine learning also help in March Madness?

    “The greater the uncertainty, the bigger the gap between what you can measure and what matters, the more you should watch out for overfitting – that is, the more you should prefer simplicity” – Tom Griffiths

    Basketball_5faa91_405080

    The data is there.  Over 100,000 NCAA regular-season games were played over the last 25+ years, and we generally have plenty of statistics about the teams for each season.  There are plenty of questions to be asked about that data that may add an extra edge. 

    That being said, people have tried before with mediocre success.  It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports – hustle, the crowd, momentum - and it's hard to overcome 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds. 

    Two lessons can be learned from this:

    1. People aren't as good at prediction as they predict they are.
    2. Machine Learning isn't a one-size-fits-all answer to all your problems.

    Something to think about.

  • Cowboys In The Playoffs?!

    You’re probably aware that I’m a big Dallas Cowboys fan.  Unfortunately, they were crushed today by the Green Bay Packers in the first round of the NFL Playoffs.
     
    Here is a photo I grudgingly took with a Packers fan at the game.
     
    IMG_7601

    The Cowboys looked great all season, except when they didn’t… which was rare (but extreme).  It happened three times this year.  Early in the season against the Cardinals and the 49ers …and obviously, it happened again today.

    Only one team can win the Super Bowl.  I know that.  Yet, somehow, the Cowboys seem to have a real chance most seasons.  That is probably why the NFL tries so hard to create parity … to keep fans interested.

    On a lighter note, one thing we can probably agree about is that geriatric white dudes shouldn’t rap.  At least … that’s what my kids tell me when I try. 

    Unfortunately, the Owner of the Cowboys, Jerry Jones, didn’t get the memo. 

    Here is the video.

    Hopefully, our season (next year) will be better than that video. 

    For another light-hearted NFL video, here is an oldy but goodie.

    It is kind of the opposite of one of those old Kung Fu movies where the dubbed words you hear aren’t synched with the mouth movement. 

    Here, it looks like they are saying what you hear … it’s just that someone changed the words.  You could call it “So THAT’S what they were saying …”

     This video works for the same reason trading often doesn’t… Humans are great at finding patterns (even when there isn’t really a pattern to find).

    Regardless, this was fun (and it’s gotten over 70 million views on YouTube).

    Better luck next year.

  • Happy New Year!

    I love planning for the new year – both personally and professionally.  To read about my professional planning, check out this article. 

    I've always been a big-picture person, so I tend to think in 5, 10, and 20-year increments … but thinking about the coming year is helpful, too.

    I think about it a bit like using a map.  Even if you know your intended destination, you still have to start with 'where you are' to figure out the best way to get there.

    There are seemingly infinite potential paths … but motion in a direction isn't really "progress" if it doesn't take you towards your desired destination.

    At midnight tonight, it'll be 2024.  I know a new year isn't really a blank slate, but I've always enjoyed the symbolism.  So, I thought I'd revisit how I set New Year's resolutions. 

    Future

    To start with, resolutions only work if you actually "want" to make them happen.  It's one thing to hope that something magically falls in your lap; it's another to want to do the work. 

    With that being said, here are some tips. 

    • Focus on What You Want.
    • Focus on Why You Want It.
    • Focus on Ways You Might Get it.
    • Focus on Evidence of Progress.

    Below, I'll take you through an example of each of the four steps.

    Moving Towards a Solution, Rather Than Suffering From the Problem.

    Before I got back into my health, my first instinct was to think, "I need to lose weight."  Knowing that "you're fat" isn't helpful … my head quickly translates that to something a tad more positive, yet generic, like: "I choose to be healthy and vital, and to live a healthy lifestyle."

    Blah, blah … They are just words.  What I needed was something specific, measurable, and actionable.  How about: "I will lose 15 pounds and stop eating after dinner."  OK, but that isn't inspiring, and there isn't much for me to do.  I can do better than that.

    Figure-Out a Big Enough WHY, Rather Than Worrying about the HOW's.

    This post isn't about health and fitness; it is about the mindset and techniques you can use to set empowering goals and plans in any situation.

    So, while I could list many ways to lose weight (and I might even remember to do some of them), leveraging a driving force creates momentum.  In other words, the first step in "Doing" is knowing WHY you want something.

    I really do want to be healthy, fit, and vital (it sure beats the alternatives), and I want to have the energy and confidence to live and enjoy my life fully.  The world is my playground, and I want to take advantage of more opportunities to play with family and friends.  However, to do those things, I must find better ways to live a healthy lifestyle.

    The WHYs are just as important for business goals too.

    Focus on Potential Solutions Rather than Problems or Challenges.

    Obstacles Exist.  The bad news: I don't eat fish, and I don't like vegetables (unless French Fries are vegetables).  My joints aren't close to healthy from years of violent contact sports.  I rarely get 7 hours of sleep, and who'd have thunk it, but being the CEO of a startup is stressful.  The good news: none of those things matter … and even if they did, it just would mean that I have a lot of room for progress.

    It is natural to focus on obstacles.  But most obstacles are surmountable – with a big enough WHY, I'll even start to eat vegetables.  Instead of dwelling on the limitations, use them as a reminder to focus on potential solutions instead.  They are beacons marking the way.

    How do you do it?  To focus on solutions, you can make two action-based lists: one is of things To-Do … and another is of things Not-To-Do.

    Here are some of the sample To-Do Items:

    • I will drink more water than coffee.
    • I will stretch or do basic calisthenics on days that I do not go to the gym.
    • I will make a healthy shake as a meal replacement rather than a snack if I'm hungry between meals.
    • I will focus on relaxation and meditation as much as I focus on strength & physical exercises.

    Here is the actionable list of Not-To-Do Items.

    • I will not buy new bigger pants or wear stretchy pants because of an expanding waistline.
    • I will not eat snacks out of their container – and will portion out what I want first.
    • I will not compare my current level of fitness to what I used to be able to do.  Instead, I will focus on my actions and improvement.

    Create Healthier Habits.

    It is easy to follow a routine.  So, here's another tip … make your routine better.  Here are some examples of things you could do to make being healthier happen with less effort.

    • Pre-sort your vitamins into daily doses, and keep them by the coffee machine.
    • Buy healthy snacks, like fruit, raw nuts, or organic energy bars (instead of chips).  If Doritos aren't in your house, it's hard to eat them on any regular basis. 
    • When you do snack, don't keep them near you.  Make yourself get up to get them.  That'll make it harder for you to binge. 
    • Enjoy listening to music, audiobooks, or podcasts during your "exercise time." Dedicating time to something doesn't mean you can't be multitasking.
    • Park at the end of the parking lot, so you get to walk.
    • Meet with friends at the gym or a hiking spot rather than a bar or restaurant.

    You get the idea.  Get in the habit of looking for ways to create better habits.  What habits could you alter slightly to make a big difference?  Which things can you automate or outsource?

    For two books about the subject, I recommend Tiny Habits by B.J. Fogg and Willpower Doesn't Work by Benjamin Hardy. 

    Focus on Your Progress.

    In this case, it really is about the journey.  Instead of tracking how far you have to go … notice how far you've come.  Utilize an internal locus of control.  It is about creating energy, momentum, and a sense of possibility.  You may have a big, hairy, audacious goal in mind.  That's fine, as long as you realize that reaching each milestone along the way is still an accomplishment.

    • Find shoes that don't hurt your feet.
    • Pick a gym or a personal trainer that you enjoy.
    • Run more than two laps without stopping.

    It doesn't matter what they are … they all count, as long as you know that you are moving in the right direction.

    Summary

    The point of this exercise was not really to focus on fitness.  These techniques and goal-setting tools work in any situation.  The principles are:

    1. First, figure out what you want and why it is important to you.  Only focus on the few things that are actually important to you. 
    2. Second, find something you can do, right now, which moves you in the right direction.
    3. Third, notice which things create (rather than take) energy.  Spend your time on those, and automate or create routines to take care of the rest.
    4. Fourth, plan forward, but measure backward.  Set milestones so that you can recognize and celebrate your progress.

    In my business, this translates to having a mission and vision – it's what we want, why it's important to us, and a basic strategy to get there.  Then, we create yearly "Big 3" goals that move us toward that long-term vision.  Then, the team creates SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely) and KPIs (key performance indicators) so they know where to spend their time, and what milestones tell them they're on the right track.

    It isn't magic, but it works.

    Hope this helped.

  • Workouts That Work with Dr. John Jaquish & The X3

    As someone who (in a past life) was an "elite athlete," my mind often thinks my body is capable of more than it actually is. 

    Well, it still is … just less often and with a higher chance of hurting myself. 

    It's taken a lot of adjustments to find what routines work for me. They can't just be low-impact or good for me … they have to be fun, and they have to allow me to improve, not just maintain. 

    I've found a couple of things that work for me, like the Carol AI Bike and HOTWORX. 

    Another one of my favorites is the X3 bar by Dr. John Jaquish. It's a metal bar that attaches to various bands and allows you to do variable resistance training. It's more efficient and effective than weights because, instead of using the same amount of force through the entire rep, you're able to do more weight where you're strongest and less weight where you're weakest. 

    He works with professional athletes, NBA teams, and more. 

    I shot a video with him about why X3's variable resistance is a better way to exercise. Check it out. 

     

    My son, Zach, is a holdout only because he prefers spending an hour in a gym. It's his meditation and his social hour all in one. I get it. I can't pretend I don't still enjoy going to the gym and lifting weights. But, I can recognize a lot of that is vanity and fun instead of prioritizing effectiveness and efficiency (getting more done in less time). 

    Taking a "Less is More" approach flies in the face of "No Pain, No Gain."

    The X3 is portable; it doesn't take a long time to set up or use; and I feel stronger when I use it consistently.  That means it is efficient and effective.  Surprisingly, it is also fun.  

    The new X3 Force uses tracking & gamification to encourage use and progress.  That is important because, with any of these tools, you still need to consider the Head, Heart, and Feet of the matter.   It isn't enough to know what or how to do something.  You have to want to do the thing.  And then you have to actually do the thing.

    I'm excited about this, because I think increasing longevity is a promising frontier, and I believe short effective workouts are fundamental to living healthier and longer. 

    Hope that helps. 

  • How Long Do You Have Left?

    We only have a limited time on this earth – and a lot of it is taken by frivolous activities. 

    How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones … or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

    The answer is a lot.

    how we use time

    via dailyinfographic

    Nine years in front of entertainment devices – another 10.5 years spent working.  You get the idea.

    If you have goals you want to accomplish, aspirational travel, and lifestyle plans – this really puts the idea of finding and living your passion in perspective. 

    Do you have the time to waste it?

    VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

     

    OC_Life-Expectancy-by-Age_1600px_Oct31

    via visualcapitalist
     

    I turned 60 this July, so I only have 20 years left, according to this calculator.   I expect more!

    There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 … but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75. 

    While these numbers seem pretty high, there are two things to consider. First, COVID heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates went up. That likely won't continue (though it will likely continue to affect your insurance premiums and pension benefits). 

    Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which likely differ from you (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc. 

    Finally, I think Purpose is one of the most important catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire … not because they're done working, but because they're done striving. 

    If you're not growing, you're dying!

  • Treat Your Business Like A Football Team

    We're now midway through the Cowboys Season, and despite injuries plaguing the team, we just had a fantastic 43 – 20 victory over the Rams. 

    At every game, I run into this guy, and every game he wears a different creative, and well-thought-out costume.  He sits on the 50-yard line. He wears Ferragamo shoes and a nice watch.  For his day job, he is the Head of Psychiatry at a well-known hospital in the area.  Yet, something about this game captures his imagination.

    UNADJUSTEDNONRAW_mini_3a71

    Jerry Jones does a lot right in how he builds his "Disney Ride."  But this post will focus more on what the coaches and players do. 

    I'm regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking I see in football.

    Football is something I used to love to play.  And it is still something that informs my thoughts and actions.

    Some lessons relate to being part of a team, while others relate to the coaching or management side of things.

    Some of these lessons stem back to youth football … but I still learn things watching games – and even more, from watching Dallas Cowboys practices at The Star. 

    Think about it …  even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan.  There are team practices and individual drills.  They have a depth chart, which lists the first, second, and third choices to fill certain roles.  In short, they focus on the fundamentals in a way that most businesses don't.

    The picture, below, is of my brother's high school team way back in 1989.

     Framingham South Flyers Football Brochure From 1989

    To re-state, most businesses are less prepared for their problems than an 8th-grade football team.  Now, that might sound offensive to some of you – but if you think about it … it's pretty accurate. 

    Losing to an 8th Grade Team

    I shot this video right before the COVID-19 shutdown.  I encourage you to watch it.  I think it's 3 minutes well spent.

     

    Football teams think about how to improve each player, how to beat this week's opponent, and then how to string together wins to achieve a higher goal.   

    The team thinks of itself as a team.  They expect to practice.  And they get coached.

    In addition, there is a playbook for both offense and defense.  And they watch game films to review what went right … and what they can learn from for use later.

    Contrast that with many businesses.  Entrepreneurs often get myopic … they get focused on today, focused on survival, and they lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together. 

    The amount of thought and preparation that goes into football – which is ultimately a game – is a valuable lesson for business. 

    What about when you get to the highest level?  If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a normal business, what about businesses that are killing it?  That would be similar to an NFL team. 

    Let's look at the Cowboys. 

    Practice Makes Perfect

    How you do one thing is how you do everything.  So, they try to do everything right. 

    Each time I've watched a practice session, I've come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.

    During practice, there's a scheduled agenda.  The practice is broken into chunks, and each chunk has a designed purpose and a desired intensity.  There's a rhythm, even to the breaks.

    Every minute is scripted.  There's a long-term plan to handle the season … but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.

    They alternate between individual and group drills.  Moreover, the drills run fast … but for shorter time periods than you'd guess.  It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a millennial's attention span.  And they move from drill to drill – working not just on plays, but also on skillsets (where are you looking, which foot do you plant, how do you best use your hands, etc.).

    They use advanced technology (including advanced player monitoring, biometric tracking, and medical recovery devices … but also things like robotic tackling dummies and virtual reality headsets). 

    They don't just film games, they film the practices … and each individual drill.  Coaches and players get a cut of the film on their tablets as soon as they leave.  It is a process of constant feedback and constant improvement.  Everything has the potential to be a lesson. 

    Beyond The Snap

    The focus is not just internal, on the team.  They focus on the competition as well.  Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch tape of their opponent in order to understand the tendencies and mentally prepare for what's going to happen.

    During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays.  If the offense realizes a play has been predicted, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them.  Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems. 

    After the game, the film is reviewed in detail.  Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.

    Think about it … everyone knows what game they are playing … and for the most part, everybody understands the rules and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings).  Even the coaches get feedback based on performance, and they look to others for guidance. 

    Imagine how easy that would be to do in business.  Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.

    Challenge accepted.

    And, in celebration of a Cowboys win … here's me doing a cartwheel.  I'm sure my body will feel great tomorrow …

     

  • A Fun NFL Statistic, and an AI GM?

    I love football.  As such, it is fun for me to watch the games.  But I also like the business of the game as well. 

    Over time, I've become a fan of the league … and how deliberate they are about building teams and developing players.

    Last week, I got to give a series of talks to a high-level entrepreneur group called Breakthrough Mastermind.  Some of the other speakers included NFL Hall of Famer Mike Singletary and a starter on the league-leading Dallas Cowboys Defense, Osa Odighizuwa.  Here is a picture of us from the event. 

    IMG_5737

    Let me know if you want a link to the actual presentations.  I talked about AI and how it frees you to be your best.  Osa spoke about what it takes to be a Pro, and Mike talked about teamwork and building teams.

    It is Football Season.  And, if you know me, then you know I'm a Cowboys fan (despite being raised in Philly, with season tickets to the Eagles – and Boston, with season tickets to the Patriots).

    So, the week one 40-0 victory over the NY Giants was fun to watch. 

    It was even more fun after I saw some stats about this loss. 

    According to ESPN Stats & Info:

    • The 40-0 win was the largest shutout victory in Dallas's history.

    • Dallas is the fifth team in NFL history to open their season with a 40-plus-point shutout on the road, and the first since the 1999 Steelers.

    • The Cowboys are the first team in NFL history to open the season with a 40-plus-point shutout of a team that made the playoffs the previous season.

    But feeding my occasional need for Schadenfreude … the stats get worse for the Giants. 

    In this game, they lost 40-0, got sacked seven times, to the Dallas Cowboys zero, they also lost the turnover margin 3-0, and had their opening drive field goal attempt blocked (and then returned for a touchdown), and their QB, Daniel Jones, then threw a pick-six. 

    Supposedly, no team has done that in a single season – let alone a single game. 

    377986325_1671679623312657_1266856846558813814_n

    via The Athletic

    See, math can be fun!

    Week Two was similar for the Cowboys against the NY Jets.  My friend and lifelong Jets fan, Brian Kurtz, attended and wrote this well-thought-out blog post on the experience.

    And for some additional contrast and dynamic tension … ponder this!

    Jerry Jones Is Going to Live Forever.

    As if the Cowboy's experience wasn't enough to bring people in, Jerry has now immortalized himself as the mirror from Sleeping Beauty, excuse me, I mean as a virtual AI screen at AT&T Stadium. 

    It's a truly interactive experience where you can ask Jerry questions, and get responses in his voice – from an AI trained on the real Jerry Jones. 

    And this is only the beginning. 

    People joke that new technologies are always adopted by porn first, gambling second, and then the entertainment industry after.  These technologies have made their way to the NFL which means they are on their way to much broader adoption sooner than you might expect. 

    We do live in exciting times! 

  • Are You Ready For Some Football?

    Are you ready for some Football?

    Yesterday was the Cowboys' first preseason game. 

    It wasn't exactly the prettiest (partly because it was the first game of the season, but also because many of the starters sat the game out to avoid injury).  With that said, it was still a fantastic experience.  The NFL (and Jerry Jones) knows how to put on a show. 

     

    HMG Cowboys Sideline on First Home Game of 2023

    It's Easy to Feel Good at the Start of a Season.

    Lots of people ask me how the Cowboys look this year.  The truth is, at this point in the season, it's impossible to know because injuries have a dramatic impact on the game.  

    Regardless, each year I choose to be optimistic about the chance of a post-season run. 

    That kind of logic (or lack there of) is why I think automated trading is better than humans attempting to do it themselves.  It's a way to make objective decisions and eliminate fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.

    On the other hand, it feels so good to hope!

    A Lesson From the Game.

    I had an interesting discussion at the game yesterday.  My guest commented that Jerry Jones is a fantastic business person – which is hard to argue – but probably shouldn't be running the team.  He believes the team needs a change of pace to switch things up. 

    While I don't know if that's why we tend to struggle so much more late in the season, it reminded me of a great business lesson. 

    Entrepreneurs often mistake their domain expertise for general expertise.  "I'm fantastic because I'm fantastic at all these different things." And the result is they overestimate their ability to be great at things outside their unique ability.  A similar issue is that many people believe they are deep thinkers, because they think deeply about what they think about.  However, they often don't realize how narrow their range of thinking is, and how many things fall outside their expertise, interest, or even consideration.

    Less Is Often More.

    Learning to offload tasks that you may not be as fantastic at as others is a great way to free up time to focus on not only the things that you're great at – but also bring you joy and energy. 

    Hope that helps!

    How 'bout them Cowboys!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 4th, 2023

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • The World’s Top 25 Websites in 2023

    What are the most popular websites in the world by web traffic? 
     

    Worlds-top-25-websites-openai-MAIN

    via visualcapitalist

    It's unsurprising that Google and social media top the list, but it is interesting to see OpenAI becoming the 17th most visited site last month – with 1.8 billion visits – despite being very new to the scene in comparison to its competitors. 

    Easy to forget, but also unsurprising is the prevalence of adult websites on this list. One of my most popular articles ever was titled "How Long Does It Take To Get To 50 Million Users?" in it, the takeaway was that Pornhub did it 19 days – faster than anyone else … up until ChatGPT. Part of the popularity of that article is because Pornhub has very in-depth statistics about its yearly use.

    Pornhub via Capitalogix Blog

    So we know that people care about making their jobs easier at least a little bit more than pornography. I'll take it. 

    Eventually, all technology collides with human nature.