Personal Development

  • Happy Father’s Day 2022

    For Father's Day, my youngest son took me to see Top Gun 2 in DFX.  It's been a while since I've been in a movie theatre, and this was a movie worth doing the right way.  It lived up to the hype. 

    He also took me to brunch and invited his girlfriend – a rare occasion that I hope becomes more common.

    It's been ten years since he started working with me at Capitalogix. Here's his first professional pic and his most recent.  Time flies while you are getting older!

    B5AF31D4-F28F-4149-8F13-9E20CA46BCDB

    As a father, having great kids is a double blessing.  On one hand, it's nice to be proud of who your kids are and the things they do.  On the other hand, it's also nice to feel proud of the small part you played in helping them become who they are.  It's also my first Father's Day as a grandfather.   After decades of messing with my kids, now I get to mess with a new generation! 

    Of course, I also look back … and spent some time thinking about my father and his terrific influence on so many lives.  

    IMG_2766

    My Dad was incredibly loving.  Yet, he was also incredibly demanding.

    For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, I watched him run down from the stands.  I figured he was coming down to celebrate.  Instead, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was disappointed that I did not throw a personal best that day?  I replied: "But Dad, I won." He smiled and recognized that winning was important too … then he reminded me that the other throwers were not the real competition.  In life, to be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself; and we both knew I could do better.

    My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He explained that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted by other things and meeting the minimum standards for them as well.

    Here is something else worth sharing; it was one of his favorite sayings.  "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things.  For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them.  The point is to set a higher standard and to have a better life.

    Well, that should explain a little of the dysfunction …  but, if you can't mess up your own kids, whose kids can you mess up?

    Hopefully, you had a happy Father's Day weekend. 

  • A Look At The Best Athletes

    There is a huge difference between good and great.

    Apparently, there is often a huge difference between the great and the greatest.

    In sports, there are many fantastic athletes whose names we will remember.  Then there are the athletes who stand apart from the rest … like Michael Phelps or Usain Bolt. 

    I recently stumbled upon a few charts highlighting the stratification between the top 1% and the #1. 

    Tom Brady

    Screen Shot 2022-06-03 at 4.16.30 PMvia NY Times

    To put that statistic in perspective, no other quarterback has even played in 35 postseason games …  but that is another measure of Tom Brady's greatness. 

    Jerry Rice

    9ykdftkjfe391sdbernard via Reddit

    Some prominent names are missing from this list – like Julio Jones or Megatron – but, clearly, Jerry's performance stands apart from other legends of the game.  For context, Julio Jones only had 61 TDs, which is relatively low on this chart, but averages 92 yards per game … which is so high that he'd be off the chart. 

    Wayne Gretzky

    GoalsAssistsvia NumberHound

    Wayne Gretzky is a sports legend, but this chart really puts it in perspective.  Leader by a large margin in both assists and goals.  He also has one of my favorite quotes –

    “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.”

    Here's another interesting Wayne Gretzky stat: 

    Together, Wayne and Brent hold the NHL record for most combined points by two brothers – 2,857 for Wayne and 4 for Brent,[2] and are second overall in points scored by any number of brothers (behind the six brothers of the Sutter family who combined for 2,934 NHL points – 73 more than Wayne and Brent, although the Gretzkys' combined totals are greater than any five of the six Sutters.) – Wikipedia on Brent Gretzky

    Serena Williams 

    Chart_shows_just_how_much-82a81387685f09e2c50777f1027c79ebvia Yahoo!Sports

    What about Nature versus Nurture?

    Genetics and upbringing might play a part in greatness.  There are several great sibling combos like the Gretzkys, the Mannings, and the Williams sisters. 

    Both Venus and Serena are dominant athletes, but Serena is in the running for one of the most dominant athletes in any sport. 

    Have you seen any other crazy stats like these?  I'd love to see them. 

  • Don’t Touch That Dial

    History may not repeat itself exactly … but it often rhymes. News stories, however, seem to replicate.

    There is nothing wrong with your television. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are now controlling the transmission. We control the horizontal and the vertical. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive. – The Outer Limits (1963)

     

    via YouTube

    It almost feels like an episode of Black Mirror, watching these stations quote the same pre-determined diatribe on fake news and its danger to our democracy.

    The very message they are purportedly supporting, in the video above, directly contradicts their actions. 

    Most people realize this happens to some degree, but it seems different when presented like this.

    I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

    Meanwhile, Sinclar Broadcast Group owns nearly 200 stations in 80 different markets and wants to buy more. That is a powerful platform to deliver mass messages and influence the zeitgeist of its audience.

    It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

    The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

    We see and hear it every day about politics, wars, economic issues, and many other things we don't focus on enough to notice.

    As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens. Especially with the growth of deepfakes. 

    What do you think about this?

  • The OODA Loop: Making Fast Decisions

    I recently came across an interesting technique that fighter pilots use to make fast and accurate decisions in high-stakes situations. 

    The Air Force calls it an OODA Loop.

    It is an iterative feedback model designed by Colonel John Boyd that serves as a foundation for rational thinking in chaotic situations like dogfights.

    It stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. 

    OODA.Boyd

    via Wikipedia

    Why do people use decision models?  Obviously, to make better decisions.  But really, they use models to create a process that avoids many of the mistakes or constraints that prevent good decisions.

    You make countless decisions every day – and at a certain point, you reach decision fatigue. It can be harder to make decisions when you are tired, after you've made too many, or when the intensity of the environment distracts or drains you. 

    It's one of the reasons I rely on artificial intelligence. Here are some others. 

    • Best practice becomes standard practice. 
    • It accounts for signal and noise.
    • It attempts to quantify or otherwise make objective assessments, comparisons, and choices. 
    • And, it often gives you a better perspective by letting you apply and compare different models or decision techniques to achieve the desired outcome.

    Nonetheless, many algorithms are dynamic and adaptive automation of processes or strategies that humans have used successfully before.

    So, let's take a closer look at the OODA Loop, which stemmed from analyzing many interactions between and among fighter pilots during battle and training. 

    Observe

    The first step is to observe the situation to build the most accurate and comprehensive picture possible. The goal is to take in the whole of the circumstances and environment. It's not enough to observe and collect information, you must process the data and create useful meaning. 

    It's the same with data collection for an AI system. Ingesting or collecting data isn't enough. You have to be able to apply the data for it to become useful. 

    Orient

    This step is less intuitive but very important. When you orient yourself, you're recognizing strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat to identify how changing the dimensionality or perspective alters the outcome. 

    It's reconnecting with reality in the context of your cognitive biases, your recent decisions, and more. Have you received new information since starting?

    I think of this as carrying a map and pulling out a compass while exploring new lands. Sometimes you need to remember where you started, and sometimes you need to make sure you're going where you think you are. 

    Decide

    The last two steps provide the foundation for taking action. When there are multiple decisions in front of you, observing and orienting help you choose wisely. 

    In business and with AI, you can go through these loops multiple times. 

    Act 

    The best-made plans mean nothing if you don't act on them. Once you've taken action, you can reobserve, reorient, and keep moving forward. 

    Conclusion

    Like most good mental models, The OODA loop works in many situations and industries.

    Speed is often a crucial competitive advantage. For example, knowing (and taking decisive action) while others are still guessing (and taking tentative action) is something I call time arbitrage. 

    Said another way, you make progress faster by walking in the right direction than by running in the wrong direction. 

    These processes (and technology) also help us grow more comfortable with uncertainty and uncomfortableness. Markets are only getting more volatile. Uncertainty is increasing. But, when you have the ability to adapt and respond, you can survive and thrive in any climate. 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – May 1st, 2022

    262534

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • How I Got Started In Artificial Intelligence

    Recently, I've had several people ask about how I got into AI. 

    There are a couple of different answers, but I shot a video to go through the main points. 

     

    Click here for a transcript

    You could argue that I got my start in AI with my most recent company – Capitalogix – which started almost 20 years ago. You could also say that my previous company – IntellAgent Control – was an early AI company, and that's where I got my start.  By today's standards, the technology we used back then was too simple to call AI … but at the time, we were on the cutting edge.

    You could go further back and say it started when I became the first lawyer in my firm to use a computer, and I fell in love with technology. 

    As I look back, I've spent my whole life on this path.  My fascination with making better decisions, taking smarter actions, and a commitment to getting better results probably started when I was two years old (because of the incident discussed in the video).

    Ultimately, the starting point is irrelevant. Looking back, it seems inevitable. The decisions I made, the people I met, and my experiences … they all led me here.

    However, at any point in the journey, if you asked, "Is this where you thought you'd end up?" I doubt that I'd have said yes. 

    I've always been fascinated by what makes people successful and how to become more efficient and effective. In a sense, that's what AI does. It's a capability amplifier. 

    When I switched from being a corporate securities lawyer to an entrepreneur, I intended to go down that path. 

    Artificial Intelligence happened to be the best vehicle I found to do that. It made sense then, and it makes sense now.

    I wouldn't have it any other way. 

    Onwards!

  • Spring and Rebirth

    For Jews, Friday was the first night of Passover, a family-centric holiday that recounts the biblical story of the Exodus of the ancient Israelites from Egypt into the Promised Land. For me, it's a reminder to appreciate what we have – and how we stand on the shoulders of those who came before us. 

    6a00e5502e47b288330263e999fff2200b-600wi

    For Christians, today is Easter – the holiday honoring Jesus's resurrection. 

    The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, a Passover Seder, and Jesus's last meal before his Crucifixion.  

    6a00e5502e47b288330240a454f862200c-600wi

    For Jews, a notable part of the ritual dinner is recounting each of the ten plagues inflicted upon Biblical Egypt and saying, "Never again."

    Last year, I joked that maybe COVID-19 should be added to the list. 

    And, just like the Jews making it through slavery, the plagues, and 40 years wandering through the wilderness and desert before entering the Promised Land … We are finally approaching the promise of life post-COVID.

    Of course, other global events remind us that while the world and our capabilities continue to improve and expand … human nature stays maddeningly the same.

    With the coming of spring, the return to normalcy, and the reminders from the stories of Exodus and Easter - it's a great time to do a mental and physical "spring cleaning". Mine your experiences for the things you want to keep doing (or continue not doing) as things go back to "normal".  

    Hope you celebrated with family, food, and a reverence for all the blessings around you. 

  • Global Happiness Levels in 2022

    Happiness is a complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones – bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience. 

    Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) … humans strive for happiness.

    Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

    Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses).  Click the image below to view the Report.

    OC_GlobalHappiness_Main-1via visualcapitalist

    In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health. Much of that continued into the 2022 report. 

    As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed.  The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people. 

    It is remarkable how resilient and stable the scores have been globally considering the amount of uncertainty, stress, and disruption households experienced this past year.

    Ultimately, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health. 

    This year, the average score improved slightly compared to 2021 – though worry and stress have continued to rise. 

    There has been a decrease in overall happiness compared to pre-pandemic scores.  Yet, the relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill – or a set-point of happiness.

    Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.

    I'm still surprised by what people can get used to … and how some people find pockets of joy in even the hardest of times.  Conversely, other people use the same ability to feel profound unhappiness, even when they have seemingly everything. 

    It's an oddly beautiful reminder that happiness comes from within.

    Another bright spot, worth mentioning, has been the massive global upsurge in benevolence. People are supporting others, communities have stepped up, more money is being donated to charity, and more people are volunteering. 

    Onwards!

  • Will Robots Take Your Job?

    The fear of a robot-dominated future is mounting … But, is there a basis for that fear?

    It's a common trope in film, but as we all know, media is meant to capture attention – not emulate reality. 

    Michael Osborne and Carl Frey, from Oxford University, calculated how susceptible various jobs are to automation. They based their results on nine key skills:

    • social perceptiveness
    • negotiation
    • persuasion
    • assisting and caring for others
    • originality
    • fine arts
    • finger dexterity
    • manual dexterity
    • and the need to work in a cramped area

    6a00e5502e47b288330240a4b2c074200d-600wi

    via Michael Osborne & Carl Frey (Click For A Comprehensive Infographic)

    There are various statistics about the rate of change for robots taking jobs. Many expect that ~50% of current jobs will be automated by 2035.  Turns out, that statistic is from Michael and Carl, and the numbers were 47% by 20341. 

    Realize that statistic actually refers to the risk of them being automated. That number doesn't take into account the realities of cost, regulation, politics, social pressure, preference, or the actual work and progress necessary to automate something – so it's unlikely the full 47% will be realized. 

     

    6a00e5502e47b288330240a4b2c15f200d-600wi

    via The Economist

    Nonetheless, many use that quote to point toward a dystopian future of joblessness and an increasing lack of middle-class mobility.  

    Mr. Frey isn't a proponent of that belief … and neither am I.  

    Automation and innovation free us to focus on what matters most (or what can create the most value). The goal is not to have machines let us be fat, dumb, and lazy … it is to free us to focus on bigger and better things.

    Industrialization created short-term strife – but vastly increased the economic pie over the long term. So did electricity or the internet. It's likely that future automation will have similar effects, but it's possible to minimize the pain and potential negative impacts if we learn from previous iterations of this cycle. The fact that we're so far along technologically in comparison to previous revolutions means we're in a better position to proactively handle the transition periods.

    New tech comes with both “promise” and “peril”. We must manage the short-term consequences of the new tech – because it is inevitable. With that said, by embracing innovation, we can make sure it is a boon to the middle-class (and all of society) and not the bane of their existence.

    Throughout history, technology has always created more jobs than it has destroyed.

    Progress means the restructuring of society’s norms … not the destruction of society.

    When we first started using technology, that progress allowed humans to stop acting like robots (think farming and manufacturing). As technology improved, we have "robots" that seem to act more like humans. They can play chess, or shoot a basketball, etc.

    The truth is that humans didn’t act like robots. They did what they had to to survive. As technology improved, we look back and have trouble imagining a time when humans had to do those things. Technology often focuses on the most pressing “constraint” or “pain." It isn’t getting more human, it is simply more capable … which frees us to ascend as well.
    There are many aspects of humanity that robots can't yet replace. But as we move forward, technology will continue to free us to be more human (which I assume means to be more creative, more caring, more empathetic, and more original).

    Doom and gloom sell. It's much easier to convince people something's going to be painful than amazing (because we're creatures of habit, and our monkey brains fear pain much more than they enjoy pleasure).

    Our attitudes and actions play a pivotal role in how the world impacts us.

    We are positioned not only to survive the revolution but to take advantage of it.

    AI is a gold rush, but you don't have to be a miner to strike it rich. You can provide the picks and shovels, the amenities, or a map that helps people find treasures.

    Onwards!

    _________________

    [1] Frey, Carl & Osborne, Michael. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?

  • How Many Humans Have Lived?

    Despite news of declining birth rates, the world’s population continues to grow because of advances in science, technology, and medicine.

    We're nearing a global population of eight billion people. 

    There have never been as many people alive as there are now.  But have you ever wondered how many humans have lived on this planet, in total, over the long arc of history?

     

    How-many-humans-have-ever-lived-1via visualcapitalist

    The number takes a lot of estimation, but you end up with approximately 109 billion people over the course of human existence. 

    That means almost 7% of all humans who have ever existed are alive today.  It also means that for every person alive, nearly 14 people are dead.  That number seems small to me as I think about how many generations came before us.

    While this might be somewhat interesting, the more important question is what you will do with the time left in your hourglass?  To learn more about what I think about that, here's an article I wrote on the time value of time and here's an article I wrote on the power of purpose and how healthy mindsets extend your life.