Just for Fun

The Benner Cycle: How Not To Predict Markets

When I first became interested in trading, I would often consult many traditional sources and old-school market wisdom. I particularly liked the Stock Trader's Almanac.

While there is real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions. Throw enough darts, and one of them might hit the bullseye.

Still, it seems better than using astrology to trade.

Want something easy to predict? Traders love patterns … from the simple head-and-shoulders to Fibonacci sequences and the Elliot Wave Theory.

Here's an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, in 1875. That year, he released a book titled "Benners Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices," and in it, he shared a now relatively famous chart called the Benner Cycle. Some claim that it's been accurately predicting the ups and downs of the market for over 100 years. Let's check it out.

Here's what it does get right … markets go up, and then they go down … and that cycle continues. Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high … It's hard to call that a competitive advantage.

Mostly, you're looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle.

However, it was close to the dot-com bust and the 2008 crash, so even if you sold a little early, you'd have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.

The truth is that we use cycle analysis in our live trading models. However, it is a lot more rigorous and scientific than the Benner Cycle. The trick is figuring out what to focus on—and what to ignore.

Just as humans are good at seeing patterns where there are none … they tend to see cycles that aren't anything but coincidences.

This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommends something, it doesn't make it a good recommendation. Those models do some things well. Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably isn't the area to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals … yet.

We're seeing bots improve at running businesses and writing code, but off-the-shelf tools like ChatGPT are still known for generating hallucinations and overconfidence.

Be careful out there.

July 6, 2025
How Long You Have Left

We only have a limited time on this earth … and a lot of it is spent on frivolous activities.

How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones … or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

The answer is a lot.

Although this chart hasn't been updated recently, it still provides a helpful glimpse of the bigger picture.

via Anna Vital

Nine years in front of entertainment devices – another 10.5 years spent working. You get the idea.

If you have goals you want to accomplish, places you want to go, and lifestyle aspirations to experience, this puts the idea of finding and living your passion into perspective.

Do you have the time to waste it?

VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

via visualcapitalist

According to this calculator, since I'm over 60, I only have about 20 years left. I expect more!

There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 … but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75.

While these numbers appear high, there are two key considerations. First, COVID-19 heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates increased.

Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which may differ from your own (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc.

Ultimately, I believe Purpose is one of the most significant catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire … not because they're done working, but because they're done striving.

If you're not growing, you're dying!

June 29, 2025
My Best Investment …

My kids are getting older. In fact, not only are they both adults, but they're both married. Father's Day looks a little different than it used to.

As I look back, I realize that there was an investment I made that paid off in a big way, and I want to share it with you.

Like many parents, I wanted to teach my children that, to a large extent, they control what happens to them. One of the first ways I did that was to set up a "compensation system" for them to earn video games.

Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games. I tried something different. Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books. Here is a photo from way back then.

Paid With Play.

Here's how it worked. When they were younger, 10 books were enough to earn a small game. When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished the requisite number of books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store or game store for them to choose any game they wanted.

When they finished a hundred books, they got a bonus of earning the next game system. That meant if they had a Nintendo, they could now also get a PlayStation 3 or Xbox 360.

How Can You Encourage a Jump to the Next Level?

There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortable reading a certain type of book, and didn't want to read the kind of books that I read. So, I created a bonus system that counted a particular book as three books. I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.

It Is a Great Way to Learn About Your Kids.

I also used the bookstore visits to gauge how the boys were doing. For example, I might say, "I notice that you read five books in that series, maybe you'd like this book". Or, "That sure is a lot of science fiction; what was the last biography you read?" For the most part, though, I didn't care what they read. The key was to get them to want to choose certain books for their own reasons. Ultimately, their preference meant they were learning to love reading.

It Puts Them In Control of Their Destiny and Rewards.

My younger son likes competition. He also broke or misplaced many things. So, to earn back the Game Boy unit he lost, I challenged him to read five books in five days. These weren't easy books either. It was designed to stretch him, and also to teach him that he could read a book a night. The bet was that he either finished all the books in the allocated time, or none of them counted towards games or Game Boys. On the other hand, if he read a book a night for two weeks, not only would he get his Game Boy back, but the books would also count towards a game. It worked like a charm, and we were both happy.

So, Who Got the Better Bargain?

As they started to get into their teenage years, I needed to up the ante a little. So, 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice. Both boys cashed in, and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad.

I got what I wanted, though; both my boys love reading, and know that they can accomplish anything they put their minds to … one step at a time.

Here is a recent picture of us. All of us love reading … and none of us needs diapers.

Speaking of diapers, I've leveled up to become a grandfather. Watching my oldest become a father is the ultimate dividend.

I still remember my father joking with me to be careful of what I said about him, because I would have kids who would do the same to me.

Watching my granddaughter grow, explore, and enjoy the world is an incredible blessing.

Plus, I know Karma is a Bitch. … wait till she starts using everything she's learned against him.

It is part of the cycle of life … just like diapers.

June 15, 2025
Trying to Understand Happiness …
I am often amazed at how little human nature has changed throughout recorded history.

Despite the exponential progress we’ve made in health, wealth, society, tools, and understanding … we still struggle to find meaning, purpose, and happiness in our lives and our existence.

Last month, I shared an article on Global Happiness Levels in 2025. Here are a few bullets that summarize the findings:
- We underestimate others’ kindness, but it’s more common than we think.
- Community boosts happiness—eating and living with others matter.
- Despair is falling globally, except in isolated, low-trust places like the U.S.
- Hope remains—trust and happiness can rebound with connection and a sense of purpose.
Upon reflection, that post didn’t attempt to define happiness. This post will focus on how to do that.

While it seems like a simple concept, happiness is complex. We know many things that contribute to and detract from it; we know humans strive for it, but it is still surprisingly challenging to put a uniform definition on it.

A few years ago, a hobbyist philosopher analyzed 93 philosophy books, spanning from 570 BC to 1588, in an attempt to find a universal definition of Happiness. Here are those findings.

via Reddit.

It starts with a simple list of definitions from various philosophers. It does a meta-analysis to create some meaningful categories of definition. Then it presents the admittingly subjective conclusion that:

Happiness is to accept and find harmony with reason.

My son, Zach, pointed out that while “happiness” is a conscious choice, paradoxically, the “pursuit of happiness” often results in unhappiness. Why? Because happiness is a result of acceptance. However, when happiness is the goal, you often focus on what you’re lacking instead of what you already have. You start to live in the ‘Gap’ instead of the ‘Gain’.

So, it got me thinking – and that got me to play around with search and AI, a little, to broaden my data sources and perspectives. If you would like to view the raw data, here are the notes I compiled (along with the AI-generated version of what this article could have been, had it been left to AI, rather than me and Zach).

Across centuries, philosophers have wrestled with a deceptively simple question: What does it mean to live a good life?

As entrepreneurs, investors, and leaders, we often chase performance, innovation, or edge — but underneath it all, there’s a quieter inquiry: Am I living well?

Happiness aside, across 93 influential philosophical texts spanning two millennia, one word consistently reappears: Eudaimonia. This is not happiness in the modern sense of pleasure, but a richer concept of human flourishing — a life filled with purpose, virtue, and meaning.
- Ancient thinkers saw happiness not as a mood, but as a life aligned with purpose and virtue.
- Some prioritized inner character; others emphasized harmony with the divine or nature.
- Debate endures over the role of external goods — wealth, luck, friends.
- During the Renaissance, the conversation shifted toward subjective experience.
- Across eras, the thread remains: Happiness is cultivated, not consumed.
Contradictions and Tensions

Thoughts on happiness contain paradoxes, contradictions, and tensions. Examining the boundaries between what you are certain of and what you are uncertain of is where insights occur. Here are a few to get you started.
- Virtue vs. External Goods: Aristotle acknowledges external goods (wealth, friends) as necessary for complete happiness, while Stoics claim virtue alone suffices. This tension challenges the simplicity of virtue-based happiness, suggesting a nuanced balance between inner character and outer circumstances.
- Subjective vs. Objective Happiness: Ancient philosophers often defined happiness as an objective state (living virtuously or intellectually flourishing), whereas modern definitions more often emphasize the subjective satisfaction varying by individual. This tension probes whether happiness is a universal or personal experience.
- Happiness as Pleasure vs. Happiness as Duty/Struggle: Epicureanism equates happiness with pleasure (absence of pain), but Cynics and Stoics emphasize enduring hardship and discipline as the path to happiness, which presents a paradox between comfort and resilience.
Three Metaphors To Help You Think About Happiness

Metaphors help make abstract ideas more concrete, memorable, and easier to grasp. Here are three to consider.

The Ship Captain (Stoicism)
- Metaphor: You can’t control the ocean (external events), but you can steer your ship (your mind).
- Clarification: Highlights control over internal states despite external chaos.
The Team Soul (Plato’s Tripartite Soul)
- Metaphor: The soul is a team where reason is the coach, spirit is the player, and appetite is the goalie. Happiness is achieved when the coach directs the players well.
- Clarification: Demonstrates the importance of internal harmony and self-governance.
The Garden (Aristotle’s Life Cultivation)
- Metaphor: Happiness is like tending a garden over time — it requires continuous effort, nurturing virtues (soil quality), and sometimes external help (sunlight, rain).
- Clarification: This shows happiness as a process, not a momentary state.
Reach out – I’m curious to hear what you think!
June 8, 2025
Relics Of A Bygone Era …
The U.S. Treasury is ceasing production of pennies – as they cost more to make than they’re worth.

According to a 2024 report from the U.S. Mint, we lose $85M a year minting pennies, as they cost 3.69 cents to make.

That makes the phrase “penny wise and pound foolish” officially passé – at least in America.

Many phrases like this still exist. It’s an interesting example of the power of language. Words take on meaning beyond their original usage … and often remain relevant long after their origin has become irrelevant.

For example:
- Burning the midnight oil means working hard, but it comes from a time before electricity, when you had to use candles and lamps to light a room after dark.
- Time to face the music refers to dealing with the consequences of one’s actions, but originates from a time when disgraced military officers had to face a drumline upon discharge.
- More recently, hang-ups were what you did when you replaced a phone receiver in its cradle. Now, you can only really find a desk phone in an office. Even then, you don’t need to place it in its cradle to hang it up.
- Put a sock in it comes from the act of putting a sock into the trumpet of a gramophone.
- And Stereotypes come from a type of printing plate commonly used in old-school newspaper publishing. While it still refers to impressions … the origin is lost on the average user of this word. Filming is rarely done on film; footage is from when film was measured in feet and frames, and you don’t need to stay tuned because your television doesn’t need to be tuned to receive the channels you like.
Until recently, technologies (and the phrases they spawned) lasted for decades, if not longer. As technology evolves at an ever-accelerating pace, new tools, platforms, and ways of communicating emerge almost daily. With these innovations come fresh slang, buzzwords, and cultural references that often catch on quickly—think “DM me,” “ghosting,” or “cloud computing.” Yet just as rapidly as they rise, many of these terms fade into obscurity, replaced by the next wave of trends. What was once cutting-edge can become outdated in a matter of years, if not months. This cycle of innovation and obsolescence is a hallmark of the modern digital era.

However, much like these old idioms, the fleeting nature of these technologies and jobs doesn’t mean they lack value or impact. Some expressions endure because they capture something universally human—emotion, conflict, humor—even if the context changes. Similarly, technologies may evolve, but their core functions or purposes often remain. The fax machine gives way to email, and email to instant messaging—but the need for communication is constant.

This principle also applies to work and tools. While job titles and methods may change, the underlying skills — such as critical thinking, collaboration, and creativity — remain timeless. A carpenter today might use laser-guided saws instead of hand tools, just as a marketer might use data analytics instead of intuition alone, but the essence of their work persists. Innovation reshapes how we do things, not always what we do.

Just as enduring phrases carry forward old meanings in new settings, so too will jobs, tools, and skills adapt and survive.

Onwards!
June 1, 2025
The Rise of AI Art and Its Implications

The last time I talked about AI Art specifically was in 2022 when Dall-E was just gaining steam. Before that, it was 2019, when AI self-portraits were going viral.

On both occasions, it still felt like the relative infancy of the technology. I compared it to VR getting another 15 minutes of fame.

The images at the time weren’t fantastic, but it was a massive step in AI’s ability to understand and translate text into a coherent graphic response. The algorithms still didn’t really “understand” the meaning of images the way we do, and they were guessing based on what they had seen before – which was much less than today’s algorithms have seen. They were also much worse at interpreting images. As such, when you tried to use AI to recreate an image, there were a lot of hallucinations. The algorithms were essentially a brute-force application of math masquerading as intelligence.

Fortunately, AI imagery has come a long way since then. However, with that improvement comes more ethical concerns.

The rise of AI-generated art has sparked a complex and ongoing ethical debate, with compelling arguments on both sides. At the heart of the discussion lies the question of authorship, originality, and the impact of automation on human creativity and labor.

Proponents of AI art argue that it represents a powerful extension of human imagination. Just as past innovations—such as photography, digital editing, or sampling in music—were initially met with skepticism, Advocates argue AI-generated art is simply the next evolution in the artistic toolkit, and it democratizes access to artmaking. As a result, those with less skill – or time – can explore new styles, generate concepts, and be creative in a new form. To this end, they see AI not as a threat but as a collaborator—another brush or chisel in an artist’s hand.

However, critics raise concerns about the ethical implications of AI art, particularly in how these models are trained. Many AI systems are built on vast datasets scraped from the internet, including artwork by human creators who were neither consulted nor compensated, leading to accusations of IP theft. Moreover, they argue it sets a dangerous precedent where creative works can be replicated and commodified without consent or attribution. Lastly, on the idea of democratization, they would argue that art is already accessible to all and that people should be willing to explore skills not only to be good at them but to enjoy them.

The most recent trend has been a great example of this argument. The launch of OpenAI’s new image generator, powered by GPT-4, has empowered users to transform their photos into various famous media themes – like Renaissance paintings or Studio Ghibli anime images – which ironically goes against the ethos of Studio Ghibli and Hayao Miyazaki. The studio is known for its commitment to the craft, with carefully animated and hand-drawn scenes. Their films are known for glorifying nature and living in harmony with it. Miyazaki also believes that AI art is disrespectful to the “life” found in human-created art.

“I feel like we are nearing the end times. We humans are losing faith in ourselves.” – Hayao Miyazaki

I’m a massive fan of AI – and even AI art … but as the technology continues to evolve, society must grapple with how to integrate these tools in ways that honor both progress and the rights of the artists (and people) whose work—and livelihoods—may be at stake.

What do you think?

May 25, 2025
AI: We’re Not Just Prompts!
AI’s trajectory isn’t just upward—it’s curving ever steeper. From DeepMind’s groundbreaking models to Flow’s democratization of filmmaking, people are becoming used to how quickly AI technology improves.

Breakneck doesn’t even seem adequate to explain the scale of the movements. Because it isn’t just about the rate of change – even the rate of change of the rate of change is accelerating … and the result is exponential progress.

Here is a simple example. Remember when you mocked AI-generated videos on social media for obvious flaws (e.g., six fingers, unnatural blinking or movement, etc.). Over the past few months, AI media quality has improved so much that spotting fakes is now difficult, even for tech-savvy people.

Well, we just took another giant leap.

This week, Google’s DeepMind unit released three new core AI models: Imagen for image generation, Lyria for music generation, and Veo 3 for video generation.

It only takes a quick look at Veo 3 to realize it represents a significant breakthrough in delivering astonishingly realistic videos.

I’m only including two examples here … but I went down the rabbit hole and came away very impressed.

Take a look – Everything in the clip below may be fake, but the AI is real.

via Jerrod Lew

The era of effortless, hyper-real content has arrived.

One of the big takeaways from tools like this is that you no longer need content creation talent other than your ideas.

An example of this comes from Google’s new AI filmmaking tool, Flow.

What Is Flow?

What if creating professional-grade videos required no cameras, no crew, and no weeks of editing?

Flow can imagine and create videos just from your ideas. Kind of like telling a friend a story and having them draw or act it out instantly.

How Does It Work?

Think of Flow as a giant box of movie Legos. You can bring your own pieces (like pictures or clips) or ask Flow to make new pieces for you. Then, you snap them together to build scenes and clips that look like real movies.

Why Is This Cool?

It is becoming easier for almost anyone to create the type of content that only a specialist could produce before. The tool makes it easy in these three ways.
1. Consistent: The videos stick together well, so your story doesn’t jump around confusingly.
2. Seamless: It’s easy to add or change things without breaking the flow.
3. Cinematic: The videos look high-quality — like something you’d see on TV or in theaters.
If you want to play with it, it’s available to Google Ultra subscribers through the Gemini app and Google Labs.

Ok, but what can it do?

Redefining “Real”

Don’t skip this next part. It’s what gave me the idea for the post.

To set the stage, imagine you’re watching a video of a person talking. Typically, you think, “This is real — someone actually stood in front of a camera and spoke.” But now computers can make a video that looks and sounds so real, you can’t tell it’s fake.

Anyway, this week, I saw a cool video on social media. At first, I thought it was cool simply because of the idea it expressed. But the video gets even more interesting when you realize how it was created.

“Prompt Theory” is a mind-bending exploration of artificial intelligence brought to life. The premise examines what happens when AI-generated characters refuse to believe they’re not real. From stunning visuals to synced audio, this video showcases AI’s new immersive storytelling power while examining some pretty trippy concepts.

Hashem Al-Ghaili via X

I predict you will see a massive influx of AI-generated content flooding social media using tools like this.

Meanwhile, digital “people” with likenesses and internal objectives are increasingly going to become persistent and gain the ability to influence our world. This is inevitable. Yet, it’s still a little disorienting to think about.

As digital agents gain persistence and purpose, we face profound questions about reality, ethics, and human creativity.

And that is only the beginning!

Perhaps we are living in a simulation?
May 24, 2025
Global Happiness Levels in 2025

Are you Happy?

What does that mean? How do you define it? And how do you measure it?

Happiness is a surprisingly complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones. And upon a bit of reflection, happiness is bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience.

Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) … humans strive for happiness.

Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting.

Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses). Below is an infographic highlighting the World Happiness Report data for 2025.

World Happiness Report via Gallup

Click here to see a dashboard with the raw worldwide data.

I last shared this concept in 2022. At the time, we were still seeing the ramifications of COVID-19 on happiness levels. As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed. The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people.

Ultimately, happiness scores are relatively resilient and stable, and humanity persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and more.

While scores in North America have dropped slightly, there are positive trends.

The 2025 Report

In the 2025 report, one of the key focuses was an increase in pessimism about the benevolence of others. There seems to be a rise in distrust that doesn't match the actual statistics on acts of goodwill. For example, when researchers dropped wallets in the street, the proportion of returned wallets was far higher than people expected.

Unfortunately, our well-being depends on our perception of others' benevolence, as well as their actual benevolence.

Since we underestimate the kindness of others, our well-being can be improved by seeing acts of true benevolence. In fact, the people who benefit most from perceived benevolence are those who are the least happy.

"Benevolence" increased during COVID-19 in every region of the world. People needed more help, and others responded. Even better, that bump in benevolence has been sustained, with benevolent acts still being about 10% higher than their pre-pandemic levels.

Another thing that makes a big difference in happiness levels worldwide is a sense of community. People who eat with others are happier, and this effect holds across many other variables. People who live with others are also happier (even when it's family).

The opposite of happiness is despair, and deaths of despair (suicide and substance abuse) are falling in the majority of countries. Deaths of despair are significantly lower in countries where more people are donating, volunteering, or helping strangers.

Yet, Americans are increasingly eating alone and living alone, and are one of the few countries experiencing an increase in deaths of despair (especially among the younger population). In 2023, 19% of young adults across the world reported having no one they could count on for social support. This is a 39% increase compared to 2006.

Takeaways

In the U.S., and a few other regions, the decline in happiness and social trust points to the rise in political polarisation and distrust of "the system". As life satisfaction lowers, there is a rise in anti-system votes.

Among unhappy people attracted by the extremes of the political spectrum, low-trust people are more often found on the far right, whereas high-trust people are more inclined to vote for the far left.

Despite that, when we feel like we're part of a community, spend time with others, and perform prosocial behavior, we significantly increase perceived personal benefit and reported happiness levels.

Do you think we can return to previous levels of trust in the States? I remember when it felt like both parties understood that the other side was looking to improve the country, just with different methods.

On a broader note, while we have negative trends in the U.S., the decrease is lower than you might expect. The relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or a set-point of happiness.

Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.

Remember, throughout history, things have gotten better. There are dips here and there, but like the S&P 500 … we always rally eventually.

Onwards!

May 11, 2025
Choosing To Be More Human in the Age of AI

Last week, I asked, “What do you do when AI gets better than you?” One of the key takeaways from that post was that AI is freeing you up to be more human.

My son (who helped write it) said he wished we used more examples and stories that dealt with “the future of being human” rather than “the future of work”. So, we decided that would be the “seed” idea for this post.

It’s funny, but when I started to gather my thoughts about it … I felt a rush of emotions.

Emotions and Logic

Emotions have frustratingly little to do with logic. Humans are driven by impulse and often by those that don’t represent our best nature. History shows that we’re driven by fear, greed, scarcity, and self-preservation. And, truthfully, that’s all “human”. But humans are also beautiful, meaning-making machines … and throughout our often messy history, we’ve done amazing things and somehow survived.

Appreciating Life

Watching my father die was a catalyst for me to appreciate life and living more than I did. I gave a TEDx talk about that and wrote articles about the time value of a life worth living. At the end of his life, it was clear that he appreciated things more (a family dinner, a kiss goodbye, the beauty of a sunset) and that he would have done almost anything for more time. Two hidden gifts came from that “scarcity”. The first gift was recognizing that we got to choose how much more “life” we got out of the last part of my dad’s life. The second gift was realizing that you don’t have to wait for the end of life to “live like you only have a year left”.

Final Goodbye

I have another memory from his deathbed as well. He had been out of it for a while, and I was worried that I wouldn’t get a chance to say a final goodbye and to tell him how much I loved him. Luckily, he woke up, and we had a few final lucid moments together. He looked me straight in the eyes, told me how much he loved me, and then with a touch of humor said, “Okay, so tell me how this relates to Veritas …” which was the original name of the company I was running at that time. His final message to me was a reminder that life is not really about work.

Looking Beyond Work

Transparently, I still look at the world through a lens and filter that too often focuses on work. Yet I also recognize and strive to pay attention to the deeper meanings beyond that.

Getting back to the point of the article, it is easy to see how AI relates to work … yet, it might be more important to consider how AI is going to affect the rest of your life.

In the last article, we discussed how Lee Sedol, one of the world’s top Go players, retired after losing to AlphaGo. When asked about it, Lee said, “Losing to AI, in a sense, meant my entire world was collapsing.” He also explained, “I could no longer enjoy the game. So, I retired.”

While it’s certainly his right to retire, I think it might have been the wrong choice … or, at least, not what I would have done in that situation.

If playing Go was his passion, it might have been better for him to change how he “keeps score” to focus on his progress, rather than the distance between him and what AI could do.

As long as you believe you can get better (and have hope for continued improvements), there are many ways to leverage the capabilities and opportunities that come from that.

Many people engage in sports or games even though they know they won’t become the greatest of all time. The same is true for almost any hobby or pursuit (whether it’s in art, literature, philosophy, craftsmanship, or other fields). There will always be someone or something that can do it better, faster, or more efficiently. However, that shouldn’t be the sole determinant of whether you get joy or energy from pursuing a path of getting better at what you want to excel at.

One of my core beliefs is that the changes coming to the world will free us up to be more human. That means we have to choose what to pursue.

What’s more human than pursuing something difficult?

The Beauty of Passion

In a world increasingly shaped by AI’s precision and efficiency, choosing to do something purely out of passion becomes a powerful act of self-expression. When a machine can paint more photorealistically or compose music with perfect mathematical harmony, human creativity finds new purpose not in competing, but in conveying emotion, imperfection, and lived experience.

As we focus on growing businesses and changing the world, I think it’s easy to lose sight of the passion that first got us into business.

I do the research and write this newsletter, not because I expect it to make me a ton of money, or because AI can’t do it … but because I enjoy it, and it’s almost like meditation for me.

My son plays rugby despite enduring countless injuries, significant financial cost, and realizing that it takes increasing amounts of his time to stay competitive. From a logical standpoint, it makes almost no sense for him to spend scarce resources or risk such extreme bodily harm in his 30s. But he’s passionate about rugby, enjoys playing it, and recognizes how it improves other parts of his life. It is an excellent example of the time value of a life worth living. He made a conscious choice that this is what it takes to be, do, and have what he values most.

The Power of Fun

Artificial Intelligence is probably better than you at poker … does that mean you shouldn’t have some friends over and try to win their money?

Does it mean you shouldn’t try to learn a new instrument or write a book?

We often undervalue fun because it doesn’t always produce measurable outcomes, but fun is not frivolous. It’s how we bond, relax, and explore parts of ourselves we can’t access through obligation or structure.

We intrinsically understand this. You don’t worry about being the best when you’re playing pick-up basketball or throwing a football with your son. You’re focused on creating memories and having fun.

Joy doesn’t need justification.

Striving To Be The Best

Ultimately, you have to be willing to lose to be the best. In every pursuit, there will always be someone ahead of you. Whether it’s a faster runner, a sharper mind, or a newer technology, I want to be the man in the arena.

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat. – Theodore Roosevelt, Citizenship in a Republic

The point has never been to be the best at everything … but to strive for your best.

I’ve always believed the game isn’t over until I win, not because I can’t lose, but because the belief empowers me to get back up again.

Being second best — or tenth, or just a beginner — doesn’t diminish your effort; it validates it. The climb matters, even if you never reach the summit. Humans are wired for persistence and purpose, not perfection.

Humanity got where we are today because people weren’t happy with the status quo. They pursued greatness and innovation. Sometimes, what seems like failure ends up being the most significant success.

AI is an incredible opportunity. It’s an opportunity to increase your productivity, to transform your business, and to redefine industries. It’s also an invitation to redefine your future and how you spend time. You can use it as an excuse to get smaller or bigger … the power is in your perspective.

Hope that helps.

May 11, 2025
What Do You Do When AI is Better Than You?

When Beethoven was at the peak of his career, several of his contemporaries struggled to deal with the realization that they may never create anything that lived up to his creations. Brahms, for example, refused to make a symphony for 21 years. Schubert is quoted as saying, “Who can ever do anything after Beethoven?”

We’re seeing the same effect as a result of Artificial Intelligence.

via visualcapitalist

The gap between human and machine reasoning is narrowing fast. I remember when AlphaGo, an AI program created by Google’s DeepMind, finally got better than humanity at Go. It was a big deal, and it prompted us to think seriously about competition in a post-AI world. If you can’t be the best, is it still worth competing? To one former Go champion, it wasn’t. He retired after “declaring AI invincible.”

Over the past few years, AI systems have advanced rapidly, surpassing humans in many more tasks. Much like Beethoven, AI is discouraging competition.

Was Lee Sedol, the former Go champ, wrong to quit? It’s hard to say … but as AI gets better at more activities, it’s an issue we’ll encounter more often.

There’s always someone (or something) better. Taking a purely utilitarian approach isn’t always necessary or productive. It often helps to take a longer view of the issue.

Sometimes, it's okay to just do something because you enjoy doing it.

Sometimes you have to “embrace the suck” and be willing to put in the work to learn, grow, and progress.

Sometimes, you need to invest effort in understanding a process better to determine whether others (or automation) are achieving the right results.

The most successful people I know don’t try to avoid things with powerful potential. Instead, they leverage those things to achieve more and become better.

I advocate intelligently adopting AI, in part, because I expect the scale of AI’s “wins” will skyrocket. That means I know AI will soon be better than I am at things I do now.

It doesn’t mean I should give up. It means I have to raise the bar to stay competitive.

I have another belief that helps here. What if you believed, “The game isn’t over until I win …”? With that belief in place, I won’t let a 2^nd place ceiling stop me if something gives me energy. AI may change how I play the game … or even what game I choose to play … but I will still choose to play.

What Happens to Human Work When Machines Get Smarter?

AI is changing the playing field at work, too.

As a result, some say that AI-driven job displacement is not a future threat but a present reality.

This past week, several prominent CEOs publicly mandated AI use, marking a shift to “AI-first” work culture, which prioritizes and integrates AI into the core of an organization’s strategy, operations, and overall culture.

Here is what I think (and you've probably heard me say this before):

At this point, AI won't likely replace you … but someone who uses AI better might.

Let’s face it, doing more with less is a core goal and strategy in business.

But that doesn’t mean humans are doomed. There are lots of historical parallels between AI integration and past technological revolutions. If you think about AI as a transformative force, you can hear the echoes of historical shifts that redefined work practices and intellectual labor (like the printing press, the calculator, or the internet).

We’re seeing significant changes in how we work. Instead of just having a mix of people working from home or the office (a hybrid workplace), we’re moving to a situation where people are working alongside smart computer programs, called AI agents (a hybrid workforce).

The rise of the hybrid workforce signifies a transformative shift in workplace dynamics. Gartner predicts that one-third of generative AI use cases will involve AI agents by 2028.

In the age of AI, success doesn’t come from battling technology — it comes from embracing our uniquely human powers and building systems that let those powers shine.

AI is coming – but it doesn’t have to be joy-sucking. Ideally, it should free you up to do MORE of the things that bring you joy, energy, and satisfaction.

Onwards!

May 4, 2025