Ideas

  • The Promise And Peril of AI with Alan Olsen

    In 2017, I shot my first video with Alan Olsen. Alan is a wealth manager to the ultra-affluent.  His American Dreams show is immensely popular with the High-Net-Worth demographic in Silicon Valley.

    Alan's show is about finding your path in life, and what it takes to make businesses thrive through adversity and challenging times. 

    In my first video with him, we talked about defining a meaningful life. We started by talking about my career path from a young lawyer to spending over 25 years running tech companies … and the lessons learned along the way.

    I recently shot a new video with him – this time on the promise and peril of AI. It has over 3,500 Likes on YouTube.  Watch it here.

     

    via The American Dreams Show

    The main issue addressed during the video is how you can best get what you want as the world changes and forces like AI terraform the world and your role in it. 

    It's worth watching.

    Ultimately, I believe AI is simply another vehicle freeing human nature. As AI does what humans used to … you have an opportunity to choose what to do with the freedom you get.  Will you relax or lift your gaze to something better?  The choice is yours.

    Similarly, some will want to direct new AI capabilities towards things they want to monetize better.  Others will want to weaponize AI.  Still others will use it to spread peace and love. 

    You've seen it with nuclear power (and a host of other technological capabilities) … tools aren't good or bad in and of themselves – it is what people use those capabilities for that determines their impact. 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 24th, 2021

    MicrosoftTeams-image

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Getting Back To Work

    The future of work is changing.

    People have enjoyed the freedom of working from home, and even as the world has gotten safer, it’s unlikely that it will ever get back to the old normal.

    However, I’m not willing to give up on the office just yet.

    There are benefits to being in the office –and benefits to working from home.  Going forward, I suspect that many companies will adopt a hybrid home and office solution.

    I shot a video with more details. Check it out.

     

    When my company was running out of my home, we had 20+ people there. But, because it was in the house and seemingly everything was so integrated with our daily lives, our culture reeked of “family.” We developed a closeness that’s hard to match otherwise.

    As a company grows, it can be hard to maintain that sense of “family togetherness,” but it’s worth trying.

    Culture is the engine behind great companies.  As a result, if you let your culture die off, so will your future.

    Technology marches on – and there are now more and better tools to foster the quality of remote work and remote teams. As a result, during COVID-19, I was impressed by how our team stepped up. Our tech teams started using discord servers to stay in touch better. We used Microsoft Teams for internal meetings and chats. We used Zoom for external meetings. We intentionally scheduled ‘fun’ activities to lighten the mood. And, of course, we made sure to check in on people more often.

    Still, while running a high-performing company can be done remotely, I think it’s easier and better in person. As I mentioned in the video, our team is back in the office twice a week. We have better snacks, we cater in lunch, and we try to schedule important meetings on those days to maximize our team’s time in the office.

    I’d love to know what you’re doing to focus on culture this year (and how you’re managing in-office vs. work-from-home with your team).

    Thanks.

  • Global Chip Shortage and Automakers

    In August, I wrote about the technologies I thought would impact the world most over the next 5-10 years. 

    In that article, I also briefly identified the global chip shortage as a supply chain issue impacting millions of businesses, which could also become a significant barrier to businesses adopting A.I. at scale. 

     

    211004.n.supplychain-1via Marketoonist

    Let's talk a little bit more about the scale of the shortage. 

    Chips (or semiconductors) are used in substantially all the world's electronic devices – and the more complex machines can require not only more chips … but also more complex chips. For example, a modern car can have anywhere from 500-3000 chips in them. 

    When the pandemic hit, consumer demand shifts meant that semiconductor manufacturing had to slow down – and a foreseeable consequence of those actions presents us with the inconvenient truth that scaling back production can take up to a year-and-a-half. With demand increasing, the supply vs. demand ratio is getting more out of whack. 

    Luckily for you, semiconductor manufacturers prioritize the more lucrative goods (like smartphones and other consumer electronics), but that means that it will be harder for small businesses to get them – and it's also severely impacting the automotive industry. 

     

    Global-Chip-Shortage-Impact-Mainvia visualcapitalist

    You'll notice that the most affected brands have more production in North America. The reason for that discrepancy is that U.S. manufacturers depend heavily on chips from Asia. The Senate has recently approved $52 billion in subsidies for N.A. chip manufacturing, which hopefully will lessen that dependence over time. 

    If you were already worried about the skyrocketing prices of houses, you should expect to see a quick rise in the price of vehicles as well. 

    Buyer beware!

  • Get Yourself Optimized with Stephan Spencer

    I was recently on a podcast with Stephan Spencer where we talked about the future of AI – of course – but also about personal development, mindsets, and the hidden opportunities created by the byproducts of your strategies and business models. 

    It was a nice talk, and I hope you enjoy it and find it helpful.

     

    via Get Yourself Optimized

    The whole video is worth a watch, but the idea of strategic byproducts is a simple but powerful one. Essentially, while you're working on your core business, or operating your core business, you'll often realize that you have created other capabilities or outcomes of that business that can become a complementary business or platform in-and-of-itself. Instead of just being the exhaust of your business, they can become a valuable resource and the path to something new and potentially bigger and better than the original business. 

    That conversation starts around the 18-minute mark and picks back up around the 38-minute mark. 

    Stephan Spencer does an excellent job of that, not only in his businesses but with his podcast. What could simply be a video he records with the interviewee becomes audio, a transcript with highlights, a timeline of topics, and a checklist of action items that he (or you) could personally take from the interview. 

    He's already shot the podcast – so why not capitalize on the "exhaust" of it as well. 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 10th, 2021

    256083

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     
     

     

    Trading Links:

  • It’s Not What Happens, It’s What You Do

    It's been a while since I've shared this video. I shot it in 2015. But, it's as relevant today (if not more so) as it was then. 

     

    A lot of times, the things that look like giant problems or setbacks turn out to be catalysts for something positive (and often better).

    You can't control everything; but, you can control what you focus on, the meaning you give things, and how you respond.

    It's not what happens, it's what you do! 

  • How To Amplify Your Capabilities Like Elon Musk

    I recently shot a podcast with Mike Koenigs about taking your ideas and transforming them not just into products but into platforms. It was also featured on Forbes. 

    Many of the most valuable companies (like Tesla, Apple, and Amazon) leverage platforms to scale past their initial products and create profitable ecosystems. 

    The video is 50+ minutes – but covers the topic in great depth, and Mike adds a lot of significant distinctions. I think you will like it.

     

    via Capability Amplifier

    Since recording this podcast, I've continued to make finer distinctions. 

     

    Wisdom Comes From Making Finer Distinctions_GapingVoid

     

    One such distinction, to help businesses plan around new technologies, was to ask two key questions. 

    1. What technologies that already exist are going to impact your industry the most in the next 3-5 years?
    2. What technologies that you expect to exist are going to impact your industry the most in the next 5-10 years?

    I ask these questions because adopting new technologies doesn't mean you have to invent something new. It can mean capitalizing on existing technologies and finding new ways to use them. Understanding what is "likely" lets you lean in the right direction and helps you visualize the most likely paths forward. 

    This helps you figure out where to spend focus, time, energy, and other resources.  Remember, it is easier to follow and leverage a trend, rather than to fight it.

    Since the beginning of time, humans have been confronted with disruptive new technologies.  While technologies continue to change, human nature has remained relatively stable. As a result, predicting human nature is often easier than predicting technology.

    So, rather than trying to predict what technologies will win, you can focus on which needs and capabilities are most likely to attract attention and resources. Innovation and technology will follow to satisfy the desire.  

    Knowing that, the question is what can you build that leverages your unique abilities and the likely path of your chosen market.

    It sounds simple, but it's a powerful distinction and potential differentiator between you and your competitors. 

  • Interesting Charts About The S&P 500

    The S&P 500 Index had another bad week and ended the month down 4.8%. It was the sharpest monthly decline since March 2020 – and finished a seven-month streak of gains.  Here is a heat map chart showing how widely spread the pullback was last week.

     

    T9xcilelaqq71

    via FinViz

    It will be interesting to see how the S&P 500 Index fairs in October as the Delta variant continues to linger, the Federal Reserve plans to slow its purchase of government-backed bonds, and fear continues around the U.S.'s cash reserves and debt limit.  Adding further pressure are the continuing shortages of many retail goods and computer chips. 

    But, for all the times we've expected a contraction, the market has shown remarkable resiliency in the past year and a half. 

    On a more lighthearted note, here are two charts I thought were interesting and worth sharing. 

    First, here's a chart from A Wealth Of Common Sense that shows the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 in 5-year increments. 

     

    Screen-Shot-2017-07-20-at-10.42.58-AMvia A Wealth Of Common Sense 

    There are a lot of interesting takeaways you can glean from this chart.  But I was surprised to see how much turnover there is. Also, in the 1980s, the top 10 companies were almost all energy companies, while today they're almost all tech companies. 

    Here's a bonus chart that shows the top 10 companies at the end of 2020. 

     

    23537via Statista 

    If you assume the market cap is approximately $32 Trillion, these ten companies account for around 30% of the market cap. That is a staggering amount. 

    For the last chart, here's a spurious correlation between the McRib being in season and the performance of the S&P.

     

    Cj6g3gjzbuq71via PuzzledHippo3
     

    With the McRib coming back on November 1st,  you might want to invest now. Seems like a solid bet. 

    Perhaps the correlation exists because McDonald's only offers the McRib when pork prices are low enough?  If so, McD's is reacting to the market (and not the other way around).

    There are many ways to make money in fast food (including food sales, real estate, and commodities trading).

  • The Data on Wealth Distribution in the US

    Talking about wealth distribution can lead to contentious discussions.

    The fact that one group has "more" of something literally means it is not equal to what someone else has … but does it imply that it isn't fair or just? The arguments get nuanced fast.

    Even how you look at the statistics can be confusing.  You can focus on which group has what percentage of the pie.  Or you could focus on which groups are gaining or losing based on the share they used to have of the pie.  With that said, remember that the pie can grow or shrink, and the percentage of a population in a demographic can change as well. What you choose to focus on, and what you decide it means, impacts your stance on the meritocracy or unfairness of what is happening (and what we should do about what is happening). 

    So, while many people point to the increasing wealth of the 1%, it's worth discussing whether this represents inequality or simply the asymmetric distribution of wealth. 

     

    Wealth-Inequality-Main

    via visualcapitalist

    Today, the top 1% of the U.S. owns about 31.2% of the total wealth. That's up from 28.6% in 2010. 

    However, the total wealth pool has increased from $60 trillion to $112 trillion in that same period. 

    In other words, each demographic has seen an increase in wealth over the past ten years. A larger percentage of the pie has gone to the 1%, but each demographic has benefitted and our collective economic pie has grown. 

    So, what drives the asymmetric distribution of wealth?

    There are multiple factors, but to name just a few: 

    • The longest bull market in history benefits the top 1% more because they own a much higher percentage of corporate equities and mutual funds
    • The minimum wage hasn't increased since 2009, despite rising costs of living and other goods.
    • Technological changes influence both more menial jobs as well as creating more opportunities for tech giants
    • Globalization plays a part both due to trade channels and due to the integration of numerous financial markets

    Are things better?  Are things good enough?  Do we have to do something? If so, what?

    Is this a red herring to distract us from other issues? 

    I'm curious to hear what you think about this issue.