The Internet is both timeless and timely in an interesting way. While what's popular changes seemingly instantly, and what we're capable of doing on it continues to grow exponentially. Ultimately, the Internet is the digital town square of a global village, where all types and professions gather.
In 2011, I first wrote about what happens in 60 seconds on the Internet.
Each time I write the article, I'm in awe at the amount of data we create and how much it has grown. For example, looking back to 2011, I was amazed that users created 600+ new videos and 60 new blog posts each minute. Those numbers seem quaint today.
Shortly after I started sharing the articles, Data Never Sleeps started standardizing the data, which is helpful.
Today, the Internet reaches 5.4 billion people. Most of them also use social media.
To add some more perspective,
In 2008, 1.4 billion people were online; in 2015, we were at 3 billion. Now, that number has almost doubled again.
In 2008, Facebook only had 80 million users, and Twitter (now X) had 2 million users.
In 2008, there were 250 million smartphones, and now there are almost 7 billion of them!
It is mind-blowing to consider what happens each minute on the Internet today. For example, the 104,000 hours spent on Zoom represents a significant societal shift … and the over 500 hours of video uploaded to YouTube highlights the incredible amount of content that's being created to share.
In 2023, the world created approximately 120 zettabytes of data … which breaks down to approximately 337,000 petabytes of data a day. Broken down even further, it calculates to more than 15 Terabytes of new data created per person.
The calculations about what happens in an Internet minute will change rapidly again because of AI. Consider the amount of computing power and data it takes to power all of these new GPTs. Now, imagine the amount of new data that AI is creating. Then, try to imagine the challenge we'll have figuring out what's real, what's made up, and what is simply wrong or intentionally misleading.
In addition, as more devices and digital WHOs start creating and sharing data, it's hard to fathom the ramifications and sheer increase in data.
I'm curious about what the next five years have in store for us as we approach the 40th anniversary of the World Wide Web.
The law of averages is a principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average.
Take, for example, flipping a coin. If you happen to get 5 "Heads" in a row, you'd most likely assume the next one should be "Tails" … even though each flip has a 50/50 chance of landing on either.
Even from this example, you can tell it's a flawed law. While there are some reasonable mathematical uses of the law of averages, in everyday life, this "law" mostly represents wishful thinking.
It's also one of the most common fallacies succumbed to by gamblers and traders.
The concept of "Average" is more confusing and potentially damaging than you might suspect.
Perhaps you heard the story about how the U.S. Air Force discovered the 'flaw' of averages by creating cockpits based on complex mathematics surrounding the average height, width, arm length, etc., of over 4,000 pilots. Despite engineering the cockpit to precise specifications, pilots crashed their planes on a too-regular basis.
The reason? With hindsight, they learned that very few of those 4,000 pilots were actually "average". Ultimately, the Air Force re-engineered the cockpit and fixed the problem.
It's a good reminder that 'facts' can lie, and assumptions and interpretations are dangerous. It's why I prefer taking decisive action on something known, rather than taking tentative actions about something guessed.
Our brains are wired to find patterns, even in random events. This tendency, known as apophenia, can lead us to see connections where none exist.
The Misleading Law of Averages
It's this very tendency that fuels the misconception of the law of averages. We expect randomness to "even out" because we see patterns in short sequences. This can be tempting to believe, especially when dealing with chance events.
The law of averages is a common idea that suggests future events will even out past results to reach some average outcome. For instance, going back to our earlier coin-flipping example, after getting five heads in a row, it's natural to assume the next flip is "due" to be tails. However, that's not how probability works. Each coin flip is an independent event (with a 50% chance of landing on heads or tails), regardless of previous flips. The coin doesn't "remember" what happened before.
Apophenia isn't limited to coin flips. For instance, you might see your lucky number appearing repeatedly throughout the day, leading you to believe it has a special meaning – even though each instance is completely independent.
This natural desire for order and predictability can lead us astray when dealing with chance events.
Why is it Flawed?
The law of averages often leads to a misconception called the gambler's fallacy. This fallacy is the belief that random events can somehow "correct" themselves to reach an average. In reality, every coin flip, roll of the dice, or spin of the roulette wheel is a fresh start with its own discrete probabilities. The odds remain the same no matter how long the losing streak persists.
Are there ever times when it applies?
It's important to distinguish the law of averages from the law of large numbers, a well-established statistical principle. The law of large numbers states that as the number of random events increases, the average outcome gets closer to the expected probability. This applies in situations where many trials happen, and while past results of individual events are independent, the law describes the behavior of averages over a large number of trials. For instance, the average weight of a large sample of apples will likely be close to the expected average weight of an apple, even if some individual apples are heavier or lighter than expected.
However, in everyday situations (with a limited number of events), the law of averages is generally not a helpful way to think about chance or probabilities.
Understanding these misconceptions can help us make better decisions and avoid false expectations based on flawed reasoning.
Psychological Reasons Behind the Belief
Human decision-making suffers from a range of tendencies and biases.
Earlier, we discussed the tendency to find patterns, even where none exist. Next, we will consider cognitive bias. In our coin-flipping example, it is the representativeness heuristic that makes us assume that small samples should resemble the larger population they come from.
Emotional factors also play a role. The desire for control in uncertain situations can make us latch onto the law of averages as a comforting notion. Believing that things will "even out" gives us a sense of predictability and fairness in an otherwise random world.
Additionally, social influences can reinforce these beliefs. Stories and anecdotes about streaks ending or luck changing often circulate among friends and family, further embedding the misconception into our collective consciousness.
Understanding these psychological reasons helps explain why the law of averages persists despite its flaws. Recognizing these biases can empower us to think more critically about probability and chance events.
Improving Decision-Making in Gambling and Investing
Recognizing the fallacy of the law of averages can significantly enhance decision-making, particularly in gambling and investing. Understanding that each event is independent can help participants make more rational choices. Instead of chasing losses with the hope that a win is "due," savvy speculators understand their odds remain constant and may choose to walk away or set strict limits on their betting behavior.
In investing, this knowledge is equally crucial. Many factors influence markets. Nonetheless, believing that a stock "must" rebound after a series of declines too often leads to poor investment decisions. Investors who grasp that past performance does not dictate future results are better equipped to evaluate investments based on fundamentals rather than emotions or flawed expectations.
By dispelling these misconceptions, you can approach gambling or investing with a clearer mindset, reducing the risk of substantial losses driven by erroneous beliefs about probability and chance.
You can also eliminate fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes by relying on algorithms to calculate realtime expectancy scores and take the road less stupid. Take a different kind of chance. Just ask our AI Overlords; they'll tell you what to expect!
My adult son took me to a Pixar movie and Dallas' version of NY Deli today for Father's Day.
Pixar movies never cease to amaze me. Whether you're a child, a teenager, or an adult, there's always something to enjoy and take away from them.
I especially enjoyed watching it next to my 31-year-old son and noticing that he responded emotionally to the same scenes I did. On one hand, it felt good to see what he processed and how he internalized things similar to the way I do. On the other hand, I thought, genetics is a bitch.
Jokes aside, having great kids is a double blessing. It's nice to be proud of who your kids are and the things they do. It's also nice to feel proud of the small part you played in helping them become who they are.
In addition, this weekend, I spent some time thinking about my father and what a terrific influence he had on so many lives.
My Dad was incredibly loving … yet he was also incredibly demanding.
For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, I watched him run down from the stands. I figured he was coming down to celebrate. Instead, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was disappointed that I did not throw a personal best that day? I replied: "But Dad, I won." He smiled and recognized that winning was important too … then he reminded me that the other throwers were not my real competition. To be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself … and we both knew I could do better.
My Dad believed in setting high standards. He explained that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards. Why? Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted by other things and how to meet the minimum standards for them as well.
The point is to set a higher standard and to have a better life.
Here is another one of his favorite sayings. "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal." This applies to many things. For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them.
Here is something else worth sharing. "It's not over until we win!" This concept underscores the importance of resilience, commitment, and grit. My Dad emphasized that many people quit when they're on the brink of victory, simply because they don't realize how close they are.
This has led me to develop several practices. For example, if I pick up a book, I won't put it down until I finish a chapter. If I start a game, I can't stop until I exceed a specific score or level. And when I exercise, there's no way I'd ever stop before finishing a set.
Integrating these concepts involves aligning your head, heart, and feet. What I mean is that it's one thing to know the saying. It's another to make it a value or belief. And it's another thing altogether to make it a practice.
Well, that should explain a little of my dysfunction … but, if you can't mess up your own kids, whose kids can you mess up?
March Madness is in full swing and will have the world's attention for a few more days. As you can guess, almost no one has a perfect bracket anymore. Yale beat Auburn, James Madison beat Wisconsin, Michigan State beat Mississippi State, and by the end of day 1, only 2,000 brackets remained intact. That's .008% of all brackets submitted.
Before 24/7 sports channels, people watched the weekly show "The Wide World of Sports." Its opening theme promised "The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat!" and "The human drama of athletic competition." That defines March Madness.
The holy grail is mighty elusive in March Madness (as in most things). For example, the odds of getting the perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (2.4 trillion based on a Duke Mathematician's formula that takes into account rank). It's easier to win back-to-back lotteries than picking a perfect bracket. Nonetheless, I bet you felt pretty good when you filled out your bracket.
In 2018, it was estimated that March Madness generated $10 Billion in gambling (twice as much as the Super Bowl)
Feeding the Madness
"Not only is there more to life than basketball, there's a lot more to basketball than basketball." – Phil Jackson
In 2017, I highlighted three people who were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness: a 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world. None of them had the same success even a year later.
Finding an edge is hard – Maintaining an edge is even harder.
That's not to say there aren't edges to be found.
Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some people use gut feelings, some base their decisions on current and historical performance, and some use predictive models. You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision. That makes you feel powerful. But knowing the history, their ranks, etc., can help make an educated guess, and they can also lead you astray.
The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading. As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't. We want the bragging rights of that sleeper pick, of our alma mater winning, of the big upset.
You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or musical-loving co-worker.
In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses.
The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased. Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear-cut answer. We don't know who will win or what makes a perfect prediction.
Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint. People make decisions based on many factors — sometimes irrational ones — which can create inefficiencies and complexities. It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them, but they're there to be found.
In trading, AI and advanced math help remove biases and identify inefficiencies humans miss.
Can machine learning also help in March Madness?
“The greater the uncertainty, the bigger the gap between what you can measure and what matters, the more you should watch out for overfitting – that is, the more you should prefer simplicity” – Tom Griffiths
That being said, people have tried before with mediocre success. It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports – hustle, the crowd, momentum - and it's hard to overcome 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds.
Two lessons can be learned from this:
People aren't as good at prediction as they predict they are.
Machine Learning isn't a one-size-fits-all answer to all your problems.
In January, Elon took to Twitter and announced that the first human recipient had received an implant and was showing promising neuron spike detection.
Neuralink designed PRIME to record and transmit neural data to interpret brain activity into movement intention. The PRIME Brain-Computer Interface empowers disabled individuals by enabling them to communicate and engage with the world in innovative and impactful ways, such as regaining the ability to speak and interact with others. In the future, advancements in the PRIME Brain-Computer Interface could even assist individuals with spinal cord injuries learn to walk again.
The first patient was 29-year-old Noland Arbaugh, a complete quadriplegic who had lost sensation and suffered paralysis from below the shoulders after sustaining a spinal injury during a diving accident eight years ago.
When we first began receiving updates about him, we were excited to hear that he could use a computer cursor. That was a big step … and the start of many others. Now, we're being told that he recently used the technology to stay up all night playing a video game called Civilization 6.
Similarly, in 2022, a completely paralyzed man used his brand-new brain implant to ask his caregivers for a beer.
It sounds like a joke, but these are the types of stories that make me optimistic. Both examples highlight a new capability … but also a deeper purpose, freeing the human to enjoy being human and enhance the quality of their life.
This is a great reminder. Media coverage often focuses on the fear of an increasingly tech-driven world, and what it means for humanity … but the best uses of technology allow us to be more human.
What used to be science fiction is becoming reality, and possibilities are becoming inevitabilities.
In the past, most profitable companies built or sold tangible products. The Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, land owners, etc.
Over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, many of the leaders are in tech, IP, and other intangible assets.
Now, to be clear, these aren't the most profitable companies. This is about value.
That being said, it wouldn't be surprising to see Apple top either of those lists. Meanwhile, Tesla has dropped off the Top 10 list due to more EV competition and probably some backlash from Elon Musk's Twitter purchase.
Also, unsurprisingly, Nvidia is the fastest-growing brand right now.
With technology becoming more ubiquitous and businesses booming, I think the trend will continue, which makes protecting your businesses' intangibles even more important.
Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors. Remember, however, that anything you get a patent on becomes public knowledge – so be careful with your trade secrets.
Why do people use decision models? Obviously, to make better decisions. But really, they use models to create a process that avoids many of the mistakes or constraints that prevent good decisions.
You make countless decisions every day – and at a certain point, you reach decision fatigue. It can be harder to make decisions when you are tired, after you've made too many, or when the intensity of the environment distracts or drains you.
It's one of the reasons I rely on artificial intelligence. Here are some others.
Best practice becomes standard practice.
It accounts for signal and noise.
It attempts to quantify or otherwise make objective assessments, comparisons, and choices.
And, it often gives you a better perspective by letting you apply and compare different models or decision techniques to achieve the desired outcome.
Nonetheless, many algorithms are dynamic and adaptive automation of processes or strategies that humans have used successfully before.
So, let's take a closer look at the OODA Loop, which stemmed from analyzing many interactions between and among fighter pilots during battle and training.
Observe
The first step is to observe the situation to build the most accurate and comprehensive picture possible. The goal is to take in the whole of the circumstances and environment. It's not enough to observe and collect information … you must process the data and create useful meaning.
It's the same with data collection for an AI system. Ingesting or collecting data isn't enough. You have to be able to apply the data for it to become useful.
Orient
The second step is less intuitive but very important. When you orient yourself, it becomes easier to recognize strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to identify how changing the dimensionality or perspective alters the outcome.
This step reconnects you with reality in the context of your cognitive biases, recent decisions, and more. For example, have you received new information since starting?
I think of this as carrying a map and pulling out a compass while exploring new lands. Sometimes, you need to remember where you started, and sometimes, you need to make sure you're going where you think you are.
Decide
The last two steps provide the foundation for taking action.
When there are multiple decisions in front of you, observing and orienting help you choose wisely.
In business and with AI, you can go through these loops multiple times.
Act
Finally, remember that the best-made plans mean nothing if you don't act on them.
Once you've taken action, you can reobserve, reorient, and keep moving forward.
Conclusion
Like most good mental models, The OODA loop works in many situations and industries.
Speed is often a crucial competitive advantage. For example, knowing (and taking decisive action) while others are still guessing (and taking tentative action) is something I call time arbitrage.
Said another way, you make progress faster by walking in the right direction than by running in the wrong direction.
These processes (and technology) also help us grow more comfortable with uncertainty and uncomfortableness. Markets are only getting more volatile. Uncertainty is increasing. But, when you have the ability to adapt and respond, you can survive and thrive in any climate.
You’re probably aware that I’m a big Dallas Cowboys fan. Unfortunately, they were crushed today by the Green Bay Packers in the first round of the NFL Playoffs.
Here is a photo I grudgingly took with a Packers fan at the game.
The Cowboys looked great all season, except when they didn’t… which was rare (but extreme). It happened three times this year. Early in the season against the Cardinals and the 49ers …and obviously, it happened again today.
Only one team can win the Super Bowl. I know that. Yet, somehow, the Cowboys seem to have a real chance most seasons. That is probably why the NFL tries so hard to create parity … to keep fans interested.
On a lighter note, one thing we can probably agree about is that geriatric white dudes shouldn’t rap. At least … that’s what my kids tell me when I try.
Unfortunately, the Owner of the Cowboys, Jerry Jones, didn’t get the memo.
As someone who (in a past life) was an "elite athlete," my mind often thinks my body is capable of more than it actually is.
Well, it still is … just less often and with a higher chance of hurting myself.
It's taken a lot of adjustments to find what routines work for me. They can't just be low-impact or good for me … they have to be fun, and they have to allow me to improve, not just maintain.
I've found a couple of things that work for me, like the Carol AI Bike and HOTWORX.
Another one of my favorites is the X3 bar by Dr. John Jaquish. It's a metal bar that attaches to various bands and allows you to do variable resistance training. It's more efficient and effective than weights because, instead of using the same amount of force through the entire rep, you're able to do more weight where you're strongest and less weight where you're weakest.
He works with professional athletes, NBA teams, and more.
I shot a video with him about why X3's variable resistance is a better way to exercise. Check it out.
My son, Zach, is a holdout only because he prefers spending an hour in a gym. It's his meditation and his social hour all in one. I get it. I can't pretend I don't still enjoy going to the gym and lifting weights. But, I can recognize a lot of that is vanity and fun instead of prioritizing effectiveness and efficiency (getting more done in less time).
Taking a "Less is More" approach flies in the face of "No Pain, No Gain."
The X3 is portable; it doesn't take a long time to set up or use; and I feel stronger when I use it consistently. That means it is efficient and effective. Surprisingly, it is also fun.
The new X3 Force uses tracking & gamification to encourage use and progress. That is important because, with any of these tools, you still need to consider the Head, Heart, and Feet of the matter. It isn't enough to know what or how to do something. You have to want to do the thing. And then you have to actually do the thing.
I'm excited about this, because I think increasing longevity is a promising frontier, and I believe short effective workouts are fundamental to living healthier and longer.
I just shared an updated article on the difference between Skill and Luck.
Serendipitously, this article showed up in my feed from 2012. Instead of updating it, I want to share it as I wrote it, because it's still relevant, and it might lose some of its magic if I update it.
So, here it is:
________________
Title: Some Thoughts On Whether Luck Is Something You Create
Date: November 3rd, 2012
Doing the same things, the same ways, has predictable results. Sometimes, it is important to do things differently.
Here is a photo of me at the National Society of Black Engineers' Professional Development Conference, where I had the opportunity to present and participate in several panel discussions.
I'm neither black, nor an engineer, and they aren't traders; so why would they ask me to present… and why would I say yes?
Value is often added at the edges. Likewise, good things often happen when you travel outside your comfort or habit zone.
I gained a lot from the experience. For example, I had a discussion with a nuclear physicist who talked about how they use computer simulations to model the effects of a nuclear explosion. That gave me great ideas about how to measure the effect of a particular trading system or algorithm on a market.
Luck does favor the prepared. That conversation could just as easily have been me simply saying 'hello,' shaking hands and moving on to the next person. To some extent, the ability to take advantage of opportunities comes from the intent to find them.
Is Luck Something That You Can Maximize, Or Would You Consider It Random?
It's possible that luck is both random and something you can maximize.
Here is an example. Many people consider the stock market to be random. Nonetheless, there are groups of people who consistently beat the market and trade profitably. How is that possible?
To explain, let's examine the decision to purchase Apple Computer stock. Regardless of whether that decision was based on gut instinct, fundamental analysis, or a technical chart pattern … whether the price moves up or down the moment after that purchase is for the most part random.
However, if you make 10,000 trades over time, then your ability to make and keep money is about how you manage risk and opportunity. At that point, your system is not necessarily random. Consequently, it is something that you can improve.
Transform Results By Getting Un-Stuck.
Improvement means getting better and different results. And, as you already know, it doesn't make sense to continue to do the same thing, yet expect different results. So, a key skill is learning to recognize when things are "stuck" in a rut.
The trouble with many "ruts" is that you don't know you're in one, while you're in one. Consequently, it often takes a different perspective to become aware of new possibilities, opportunities, or best next steps.
Implications.
The interesting thing that this implies is that those opportunities were always there … they just weren't there for you in your current state of awareness.
Similarly, recognize that many of the processes that we rely on limit our "luck" or opportunities precisely because they limit our choices. When this is done consciously it can be helpful. However, when it's an unconscious act, it can be dangerous.
In general, you can categorize many tools as either being multipliers or diminishers. Neither one is good or bad in and of itself. The trick is to recognize that you have a choice and that not choosing is still a choice.
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