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  • GPT-3: Boom or Bust?

    GPT-3 was released by OpenAI in 2020 – and was considered by many a huge jump in natural language processing. 

    GPT stands for Generative Pre-trained Transformer. It uses deep learning to generate text responses based on an input text. Even more simply, it's a bot that creates a quality of text so high that it can be difficult to tell whether it's written by a human or an AI.

    GPT-3 is 100x bigger than any previous language AI model and comes pre-trained on 45TB of training text (499 billion words). It cost at least 4.6 million US dollars (some estimated as high as $12 million) to train on GPUs. The resulting model has 175 billion parameters. On top of that, it can be tuned to your specific use after the fact. 

    1_C-KNWQC_wXh-Q2wc6VPK1gvia Towards Data Science

    Here are some interesting GPT-3 based tools: 

    • Frase – AI-Curated SEO Content 
    • Emerson – AI Chatbot
    • Viable – Customer Feedback Analytics Platform
    • Sapling– Customer Service

    Practically, GPT-3 was a huge milestone. It represents a huge jump in NLP's capabilities and a massive increase in scale. That being said, there was a frenzy in the community that may not match the results. To the general public, it felt like a discontinuity; like a big jump toward general intelligence.  

    To me, and to others I know in the space, GPT-3 represents a preview of what's to come. It's a reminder that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is coming and that we need to be thinking about the rules of engagement and ethics of AI before we get there. 

    Especially with Musk unveiling his intention to build 'friendly' robots this week. 

    On the scale of AI's potential, GPT-3 was a relatively small step. It's profoundly intelligent in many ways – but it's also inconsistent and not cognitively concrete enough.

    Take it from me, the fact that an algorithm can do something amazing isn't surprising to me anymore … but neither is the fact that an amazing algorithm can do stupid things more often than you'd suspect.  It is all part of the promise and the peril of exponential technologies.

    It's hard to measure the intelligence of tools like this because metrics like IQ don't work.  Really it comes down to utility.  Does it help you do things more efficiently, more effectively, or with more certainty? 

    For the most part, these tools are early. They show great promise, and they do a small subset set of things surprisingly well. If I think about them simply as a tool, a backstop, or a catalyst to get me moving when I'm stuck … the current set of tools is exciting.  On the other hand, if you compare current tools to your fantasy of artificial general intelligence, there are a lot of things to be improved upon. 

    Clearly, we are making progress. Soon, GPT-4 will take us further. In the meantime, enjoy the progress and imagine what you will do with the capabilities, prototypes, products, and platforms you predict will exist for you soon.

    Onwards. 

  • What Technologies Are Going To Most Impact The Next 5-10 Years?

    At a mastermind meeting last week, Landon Downs from 1Qbit spoke on the state of technology.  Landon and I agree on a lot of things – and one of those things he emphasized heavily.  AI is in a period of massive innovation. It's a renaissance, or springtime, or whatever euphemism you want to use. But it's only springtime for AI if you can take advantage of it.

    Adding to that, he explained that a current constraint might become a big short-term limitation to how widespread AI can grow. The constraint is that there is a global chip shortage (and it could be an issue until 2023).

    The chip shortage is probably a bigger problem than you imagine because microchips are in everything from refrigerators to toothbrushes – not just high-tech computers. This has the potential to be a massive disruptor, especially in the tech industry. 

    Pink and Purple Sporty Gradient Fitness YouTube Thumbnail (1)

    Building and running smart AI systems takes a lot of computing power, and as more competitors enter the scene, not only will the cost to play increase, but so will the potential you get turned away at the door. 

    To a certain extent, the AI arms race becomes a chip arms race. 

    As I thought about the chip shortage, and its impact on the next few years, it also made me brainstorm what else I thought would be the most influential shifts that would influence me and my business (and potentially the world). 

    Here's my top 5, and I'd love to hear yours. 

    1. Compute Power is going to increase, and the ability to brute force problems will create new possibilities. Quantum computing will become more important and likely available for commercial use. 
    2. New and better AI platforms will transition AI from a tool for specialists to a commodity for everyday people – it won't just be Artificial Intelligence, it will be Amplified Intelligence (helping people make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually measure and improve performance). 
    3. Blockchain and authenticated provenance are going to become more important as the world becomes increasingly digital. Trust and transparency will be important as indelible logs are needed for finance, medical, armies, etc.
    4. IoT will become more pervasive, enabling near digital omniscience as everything becomes a sensor that transmits data up the chain. 
    5. Mass customization will become the norm instead of simple mass production as hardware, data, and AI continues to improve products, medicine, custom supplements, and just about everything else. 

     

    What do you think?  I'd love to hear your list.

  • Elon Musk and His Self Driving Cars

    While self-driving cars seem like a relatively new invention, the reality is that the earliest autonomous self-driving cars existed in the early 1980s (non-autonomous versions and semi-workable experiments have existed since the 1920s). 

    Luckily, the standards and approach have gotten much better since then, and we continue to make massive strides. Recently, Elon Musk stated that he was confident that level 5 self-driving cars would exist by the end of this year. That would mean the need for a steering wheel or a driver's seat would be next to 0 – a luxury even. 

     

    Autonomous-self-driving-cars-vs-human-drivers-chart

    via Stein Law

    According to many AI experts, this is exciting because level 5 autonomy is not just difficult – it's near impossible. 

    Think of it from a human perspective. When we're driving, many minute decisions happen instantaneously and without much trouble. But some of those decisions are "subjective" and seemingly novel. We know the answer because we intuit the answer – not because it's following any specific rule. 

    For a car to reach level 5 autonomy, it would have to be pre-trained for essentially every possible situation they could encounter – no matter how rare. 

    Elon Musk is famous for his potentially antagonizing beliefs and predilection for extreme statements … but will Tesla somehow solve these problems?

    Is AI about to pass another hurdle already?

    It's exciting stuff! As someone that hates long drives, I'm certainly ready for it. I can also envision a future where the norm is autonomous driving, and individuals that want the right to drive their cars themselves will have to pass extra tests, pay extra fees, and warn the autonomous cars that it's a human at the wheel. 

  • The History of Innovation Cycles

    In today's environment of rapid change, innovation is a topic worthy of increased thought, action, and discussion

    Here are some articles worth a look to get started:

    Too often, people view Innovation through the lens of today (meaning, they evaluate where things are in relation to their hype cycle or adoption model. While helpful, these methods focus on shorter-term trends.  Sometimes, a longer view helps too. 

    Let's look at the pace of innovation, and how the long waves of innovation are truncating faster. 

     

    Innovation_Cycles-2via Visual Capitalist

    The theory behind these long waves of innovation is based on creative destruction. To summarize a complex theory, as markets are disrupted, a few key clusters of industries have a major effect on the economy and the future structure of society.

    An easy-to-understand example is that as railways proliferated, urban growth happened around stations. To a lesser extent, it happened with aviation as well.

    The most recent example would be the transition of businesses online. I think it's likely that the COVID pandemic moved forward the timeline for the 6th wave considerably, as individuals get used to a new normal. 

    Despite the pain and challenges of new technologies, each of these waves brought economic growth and improved living standards. 

    ESG and green tech are becoming more important (and, perhaps, a driver of the 6th wave).  Nonetheless, I think the major movers will be AI and the decreasing divide between digital and physical.

    In many respects, I believe AI will terraform the world similarly to how electricity (or the Internet) did – but in much less time. 

    What do you think? 

  • Learning To Live (and Work) With Millennials

    Simon Sinek is a best-selling author (Start With Why) and gave a Ted Talk on how great leaders inspire action (that got 30 million views). 

    In an interview with Tom Bilyeu (co-founder of Quest Nutrition), he addresses the issue of managing Millennials – and why they seem lazy, entitled, and unfocused.

     

    via Inside Quest

    Sinek points to four characteristics that help "create" this issue:

    • Parenting,
    • Technology,
    • Impatience, and
    • Environment.

    Sinek suggests that this generation is a product of failed parenting strategies … being told they're special without effort, being told they can have anything they want, and being handed trophies for showing up.

    Next, add technology to the mix.

    Before millennials, interaction happened in person much more frequently … meaningful trust-based relationships were built with time and effort, and when you were at dinner with friends or watching a movie, you were living in the moment, not distracted by your phone.

    For added irritation, next add impatience (which is a byproduct of instant gratification).  

    Why wait for amusement when it's a text away?  You've got Netflix making video rental a thing of the past, Tinder making dating as easy as "swiping right" and Amazon making it so you don’t have to check out when you go to a store.

    Is it any wonder that these kids have short attention spans? Now imagine the Gen Z kids forced into quarantine where their only companionship was online?

    Now put those kids in an environment where they're forced to realize you can't rush success, and you can't force meaningful relationships. Where they have to put in the effort and stay focused for extended periods of time

    It's a story that often doesn't have a happy ending.

    I thought it would be fun to ask one of them what they thought about it … So I asked my son, Zachary.  Here are his thoughts.

    I was born in 1993. When I was in elementary school, I was already using a computer almost daily, and a lot of my education and entertainment was computer-centric. 

    As such, I am a textbook “Millennial.”

    I use Snapchat too much, I often relax by playing games on my phone, and I am easily distracted. Because of that, I found this interview with Simon Sinek particularly interesting.

    I’m lucky. My dad forced me to work hard and valued my efforts more than my results.  So, while I'm constantly reminded that I'm lucky I'm not working 80-hour days (and being forced to get a haircut every week), I do feel as if I'm a step ahead of many of my peers.

    I still find myself falling into a lot of the "traps" Sinek describes – I'm reliant on social media; I'm frustrated when my effort doesn't transfer into immediate impact; and I struggle to not take my phone out whenever there's not another stimulus keeping me occupied. 

    That being said, I do think the issue is bigger than millennials. It's not just our generation that takes their phones out at meetings and ignores who they're with for someone on their phone. If you pay attention, I'll bet you'll notice that you do it as well. To me, it seems more like a trapping of the era than of a generation. 

    The difference, I think, is that millennials spent their formative years in this environment. This does affect the way we see and interact with the world. But you can watch each generation chastise the youth for the same things as they get older. 

        "This new generation has no respect! They're too reliant on technology, and don't know how to do anything themselves! Lazy and entitled!

    I'm positive I can find similar rhetoric levied against Generation X, Boomers, and more. There's always been resistance to new technologies and the belief that the new generation takes what they're blessed with for granted. I even catch myself judging Gen Z for the same things I remember being judged for as a teenager. 

    Will we ever measure up to your expectations? Perhaps not … because our generations approach the world the world so differently.

    Nonetheless, we are still capable of greatness.  We are still driven to pursue growth, to create new things, and to provide value to our communities.  It's just that we are playing a different game and keeping score a little differently. 2020 brought a lot of that to the forefront of the conversation. 

    Understanding that, in and of itself, can help to close the gap. As we mature and become the main working force, as we become managers and leaders, I think you'll find that a lot of our failings were the symptoms of youth – and have dissipated with age. 

    There's plenty more I want to say, but I don't want to go on for too long.   I'm happy to have a more in-depth conversation offline. You can e-mail me at [email protected] with any thoughts on the subject, any questions, or just to say hello. 

    Thanks. 

     

     

  • Humans Need Not Apply

    While we all know that pop culture representations of AI aren't accurate – I'm still surprised how often I see people who are against Artificial Intelligence. It seems that many people are focus on science fiction's dystopian depictions of sentience and omniscience, while the reality is exciting (and much less scary). 

    In my office, we use a lot of what seems like "futuristic" artificial intelligence approaches to understanding financial markets and enhancing decision-making. Most of my team are technical or data-science specialists that develop and drive the systems that create our systems. Despite the exponential growth of AI and its supporting technologies, I still believe the heart of AI is human.

     The Heartbeat of AI is Still Human_GapingVoid

     

    Of course, I'm not sure how long that will be true.  But I'd bet it remains true for the next 25 years.

    The video below was shot in 2014 and gives a great perspective on how quickly automation, robots, and eventually autonomous robots, are becoming pervasive. 

     

    via CGPGrey

    Automation used to mean big, bulky machines doing manual and repetitive work. Today, however, automation can land an aircraft, diagnose cancer, and trade. I'm fascinated by what is becoming possible … and how, even when the A.I. is little more than an elegant use of brute force, incredible results are becoming commonplace.

    In many cases, the results coming from machines coding other machines are matching or exceeding the work done by humans. 

    And it's only getting better. 

    In the past, innovation created new industries or allowed increased scale … nonetheless, people are worried that the number of jobs the internet and Artificial Intelligence create isn't matching the number of jobs they're making obsolete. 

    According to this study, approximately 50% of jobs will be automated by 2034.

    Personally, I believe that freeing us to elevate our perspective and do more has always been a boon to society. Electricity put a lot of people out of work as well. Nonetheless, look what it made possible.

    To date, human progress has been based on the division of labor. As our society progressed, our jobs have become increasingly specialized. Now, machines will be able to break down complex jobs into simple parts and complete them faster than we can. 

    So, yes, the same technology that's currently creating opportunities could eventually put you out of a job … but it also creates an opportunity for something new.

    There's a lot of change coming, and that can be scary, but there's reason to be excited as well.

    We live in a golden era of innovation, and we have longer life expectancies than ever before. Humans are immensely adaptable, and I'm sure we'll continue to grow to meet the challenges and opportunities we face. 

    The reality is, we've been working symbiotically with "machines" since the very beginning.  Our definition of a "machine" simply continues to improve. It's fractal, and each time the technology we're adopting gets bigger, so does the eventual positive effect on day-to-day life. 

    AI adoption is a big step, but the positive effect it can have on our lives is astronomical. 

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – July 11th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Enter The Hivemind

    It can be hard to visualize AI.

    You might imagine something based on pop culture references of virtual lifeforms with sentience and free will … but, at least for now, that's far from the truth.

    Here's an infographic debunking 8 common AI myths.

    Modern AI does many things and has many applications, but it's still relatively primitive. It works in the background, silently collecting vast amounts of data, and performs increasing amounts of work.

    AI may not currently compare with the Star Trek character Data, yet it already is transforming our economy at warp speed.  For a recent example, McDonald's is now doing a 10-store pilot replacing their human drive-thru attendants with AI. 

    Some current uses of AI and robotics are genuinely impressive.  Here's a video taking you into "The Hive" a supermarket warehouse run by a "Hivemind" AI. With thousands of "bots" and various other forms of AI and technology, this will give you a glimpse of the future of AI and automation. 

    via Tom Scott

    This system is from Ocado in the UK. If you want more info, here is an article from Forbes about it.

    Pretty cool! 

  • Getting To Next: How Thoughts Become Things

    Two weeks ago, I introduced Innovation Activity Centers which are the building blocks for my technology adoption model.InnovationActivityCenters2

    Today, I have a video and a worksheet for you that goes into the overarching Technology Adoption Model Framework. It explains how thoughts become things and how ideas scale with respect to capability, audience, and monetization.

    The four base stages of this framework are: Capability –> Prototype –> Product –> Platform. 

    It's a great use of 20 minutes. Check it out.

     

     

    While the Technology Adoption Model Framework stages are important, the ultimate takeaway is that you don't have to predict what's coming, only how human nature works in response to the capabilities in front of them.

    It's a bit cliche, but to paraphrase Wayne Gretzky, you just have to skate to where you think the puck is going to be. 

    Desire fuels commerce.  As money fuels progress, desire grows … and so does the money funding that path. As such, the path forward is relatively easy to imagine.

    This isn't about predicting specific technologies, but rather about the capabilities people will want.  I think of it as anticipating the natural path.  It is easier to ride the wave than it is to fight nature.

    Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desire and adoption.

    It isn't really about building the technology, rather it is about supporting the desire.

    If you understand what is coming, you don't have to build it, but you can figure out where you want to build something that will benefit from it.

    This model is fractal.  It works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

    What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.

    For example, as a Product transforms into a Platform, it becomes almost like an industry of its own.  Consequently, it becomes the seed for a new set of Capabilities, Prototypes, and Products.

    SpaceX's goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now … but once it's achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.

    This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them. 

    In the video, I walk you through several examples of companies, their innovations, and how they fit into each stage. I even used Capitalogix as an example. 

    I'm also attaching a fillable PDF of the form we used so that you can run through this with your business as well. 

    Tech Adoption Model for Entrepreneurs (1)

    As I continue to refine and work with this framework, I look forward to improving it and sharing it with you all. 

    As the world continues to change faster and more dramatically, this framework will help you anticipate changes, and it will also help you take advantage of them. 

    If you have any questions or comments about the idea, or how to implement it, feel free to reach out. 

    Onwards! 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 6th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     
     

    Trading Links: