Film

  • Buying a Computer in 1994 …

    We take for granted a lot of the technology we have today.  Computers and phones have evolved so fast that it's hard to remember that they haven't been around for many years. 

    When my youngest son was born in 1993, cassette tapes and the Sony Walkman were popular.  I had a brick-sized phone hardwired into my car, and we had a Macintosh-II in the study.

    Here is a throwback picture showcasing the cool tech we had back then. 

    IMG_4907

     

    Everything in that photo now exists in the cheapest of smartphones.  And the features and functions available now far exceed my wildest expectations back then.

    For a blast from the past and a look back at what used to be top-of-the-line … here's a video of people buying a computer in 1994. 

     

    via David Hoffman

    Video transfer and playback.  160-megabyte hard drive.  32 megahertz.  All for the low price of $2,000. 

    I can remember back further than 1993, because I'm old enough that I didn't have my first computer until after I graduated college.  My first Macintosh had floppy disks measured in K, not megs or gigs.  For context, my first job out of school was at a law firm where the only people who used computers were in the typing pool.  And when I said I wanted a computer, the lawyers said "No!" because it would look bad.

    It's pretty cool to see how far we've come! 

    Still, someday soon, they will look back at the tech we have now as "primitive" and "quaint".

    I can't wait!

  • Cognitive Biases & The Consequences of Labeling

    “Words can be twisted into any shape. Promises can be made to lull the heart and seduce the soul. In the final analysis, words mean nothing.
    They are labels we give things in an effort to wrap our puny little brains around their underlying natures,
    when ninety-nine percent of the time the totality of the reality is an entirely different beast.
    The wisest man is the silent one. Examine his actions. Judge him by them.”
    ― Karen Marie Moning

    Continuing with the theme of cognitive biases, the upcoming election has me thinking about the consequences of labeling things, creating boxes, and simplifying ideas into news-ready headlines.

    With more news sources than ever and less attention span, you see ideas packaged into attention-grabbing parts.  The focus isn't on education or the issues, but on getting the click, making your stay on their page longer, and sending you to a new article utterly unrelated to why you clicked on the page.

    Complex issues are simplified – not even into their most basic forms – but instead into their most divisive forms … because there's no money in the middle.

    200705 Einstein's Simplicity Quote

    via Quote Investigator

    The amplified voices are those on the fringe of the average constituents' beliefs – precisely because those are the ones who are often the most outspoken.  We might think that because they're the voices we hear, these fringe messages fairly represent what people like us believe or think … but they rarely do. 

    Issues that should be bipartisan have been made "us" versus "them," "liberal" versus "conservative," or "right" versus "wrong." The algorithms many of our information sites use create echo chambers that increase radicalization and decrease comprehension. 

    Identity politics have gotten so strong that you see families breaking apart and friend groups disintegrating … because people can't imagine sharing a room with someone with whom they don't share the same values. 

    In psychology, heuristics are mental models that help you make decisions easier.  They're a starting point to save mental bandwidth, allowing you to spend more brain cycles on the important stuff.

    That's a great use of "boxes" and "simplification"… but it shouldn't eliminate deeper and more nuanced thought on important issues. 

    Most situations are nuanced, and the "correct" answer changes as you change your vantage point.

    In an ideal world, we'd consider every angle.  I recognize that's not realistic.

    Instead, I encourage you to remember to continue to think and learn … even about things you already know.  And, if you become familiar with the most common cognitive biases, you can hopefully identify them in your thinking and decision-making.

    Confirmation Bias is one of the more common forms of cognitive bias.  Here is an infographic that lists 50 common cognitive biases.  Click to explore further.

     

    200705 50 Cognitive Biases Small

    via VisualCapitalist

    Important issues deserve more research.  New insights happen between the boundaries of what we know and don't.  Knowledge comes from truly understanding the border between what you are certain and uncertain about. 

    I challenge you to look beyond the headlines, slogans, and talking points you like most.  Look for dissenting opinions and understand what's driving their dissent.  Are they really blind or dumb (or are their value systems just weighted differently)?

    Not everything needs to be boxed.  Not everything needs to be simple.  You should explore things and people outside of your comfort zone and look to see things from their point of view … not your own. 

    Recently, I've started using a website and news app called Ground News.  They claim to be a news platform that makes it easy to compare news sources, read between the lines of media bias, and break free from algorithms. 

    As discussed above, online news and ad-driven algorithms have made it profitable for news outlets to embrace a position on the bias spectrum to target specific consumers.   That bias in the media affects everything from what events receive coverage to how a news outlet frames those events in their reporting.

    As media outlets narrow their perspective and range of coverage, I use Ground to help me get a well-rounded view of important issues and become aware of my blind spots.

    Applying This Lesson  

    “I am ashamed to think how easily we capitulate to badges and names, to large societies and dead institutions.”
    ―     Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance

    I love learning a lesson in one space and applying it to other spaces.  It's one of the cool things about AI.  An algorithm can learn rules in the construction space that may help in the medicine or trading space.  Everything's a lesson if you let it be.

    In that vein, the lesson on labeling also applies to yourself and your business.  Don't get me wrong – naming things is powerful.  It can help make the intangible tangible.  However, don't let the label (or your perception of the label) stop you from achieving something greater. 

    Many things are true because we believe them to be, but when we let go of past beliefs, the impossible becomes possible, and the invisible becomes visible.  

    Hope that helps. 

  • Just Sardines In A Tincan…

    I fly a lot.

    In fact, I hit five million "butt-in-seat" miles on American Airlines in 2019 (back when frequent flyer programs were about flying frequently rather than credit card spending).

    190331 HMG ConciergeKey Stats

    It is 2024, and I am now just below 5.5M.  That means I averaged a little over 100,000 miles per year, even through the COVID shutdown.

    Yes, I expect that my travel will slow down.  But as I traveled, I didn't expect it to continue at the pace it did. 

    Nonetheless, it has been good for me, and the time spent traveling has been productive.

    I have a different workflow when I travel, and it works for me.

    Ultimately, I believe that good things happen when you are in motion! 

    Many people, however, are focused on the hassle.

    The practical realities of travel mean I spend some time thinking about the things airlines do well or poorly.  Nonetheless, I appreciate the benefits more than the frustrations.

    As you probably noticed, Airline Status means much less today than it used to (which is why it feels even more important to get).  Every week, the airlines seem to make the space between seats smaller while the time it takes to find overhead luggage space gets shorter.  It seems like most airlines could change its slogan to "We are not happy until you're not happy."

    Yet the planes themselves are getting better.  Here, for example, is what an empty 787 looks like. 

    Yyng800cpqf21

    It looks more like a set from Star Trek than the hellscape passengers complain about regularly. 

    What about the boarding process? 

    Here is a video that presents the findings from studies on experimental boarding methods that work better. 

    via CGP Grey

    If you really don't like commercial flying, you can fly on any of the "economical" private options like JetSmarter or WheelsUp. Or, better yet, you could be like this guy and buy the world's only private Boeing 787 Dreamliner. 

    via Sam Chui

    You can rent it out for a measly $70k an hour … What a bargain!

    Of course, you could also use Zoom.  Times are changing!

  • The Evolution of Michael Jackson

    This lighthearted post has something to do with artificial …  but nothing to do with artificial intelligence.

    While doing my weekly reading and web browsing (which is how I pick those links you probably think an algorithm selects), I happened upon a post about Michael Jackson on Twitter (now called X), and I enjoyed it (or at least was drawn to click and watch it). 

    I grew up a huge Michael Jackson fan. As a kid, I watched the Jackson 5 Saturday morning cartoon show. His albums were the soundtrack to my college years. Later, my first wife and I saw him in concert several times. We shared that love with our youngest son, Zach. 

    It's funny to look back on, but Zach used to dance to Michael Jackson's songs on stage at his Elementary School talent shows or at random restaurants. There was no choreography … but lots of movement. I still smile when I think about it. 

    You might smile (or shake your head) while watching this short video chronicling the evolution of  Michael Jackson's face changes from birth to death. 

     

    via MikeBeast

    It's a staggering difference. I won't pretend to know what led him to make the changes, but they're substantial. 

    That being said, his music is both timely and timeless – which is very rare. He managed to make music in each era that fit in with the times but still felt very Michael Jackson. 

     

    via MikeBeast

     

    Gone too soon!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 18th, 2024

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Predictions for 2024

    At the beginning of 2022, I shared VisualCapitalist's predictions for the year, and then at the end of the year, we checked to see how well they did. 

    Since they posted a 2024 version, I figured, why not do it again? 

    OC_Prediction-Consensus_03via VisualCapitalist.

    You can find forecasts anywhere … but since they're basically guesswork and I don't know what data they are using or excluding, I don't spend much time on them.

    That said, I found this infographic easy to look at and think about. So, it's as good a place to start as any. Also, VC draws from a database of 700 expert forecasts to make this chart. 

    Some are pretty easy to predict – like GenAI's shift to text-to-video. Or, an increase in lawsuits and regulations around AI. Others are questionable. In the past few months, we've seen TikTok investing heavily in the growth of its e-commerce business. Insiders have stated they believe they're trying to compete with Amazon. We'll see how that goes?

    On a positive note, it seems like most are predicting positive effects on the market & economy, including a decrease in inflation and interest rates, bonds on the way back, and record highs in the S&P 500.

    I'd love to hear your predictions. What do you think?

  • Some New AI Tools I’ve Been Hearing Good Things About

    At the core of Capitalogix's existence is a commitment to systemization and automation. 

    Consequently, I play with a lot of tools.  I think of this as research, discovery, and skill-building.  There is a place for that in my day or week.  However, few of those tools make it into my real work routine.

    Here is a list of some of the tools that I recommend.  I'm not saying I use them regularly … but in some cases, I should (it reminds me of some exercise equipment I have). 

    Screenshot 2024-01-19 at 4.56.40 PM

    Since the late 90's, I've been collecting tools to make my business more efficient and my life easier. 

    It's a little embarrassing, but my most popular YouTube video is an explainer video on Dragon NaturallySpeaking from 13 years ago.  It was (and still is) dictation software, but from a time before your phone gave you that capability. 

    Today, I have more tools than I know what to do with, but here are a few that keep coming up in conversations. 

    Daily.AI – AI Newsletters

    We've launched a new newsletter that is AI-curated by Daily.ai.  It matches the tone and style of my newsletters, gets good engagement, and (honestly) looks much better than what we put out.

    Our handwritten newsletters still do better on some metrics – but it's a nice addition and a promising technology. 

    For transparency, our handwritten newsletters get around 45% opens, and 10% click-throughs and our new AI newsletter is averaging around 38% opens but around 30% click-throughs.  Our normal newsletter isn't focused on links – which is why the click-through isn't as good. 

    That said, Daily.AI is a great tool that creates compelling two-way communication with your audience way easier and cheaper (time, money, and effort) than something similar done manually.

    This is an example of how people won't get replaced by AI … people will get replaced by people who use AI better. 

    Opus.pro – AI Video Repurposing 

    Opus.pro takes your long-form video content and cuts it into short-form content that you can post as teasers to other channels like YouTube Shorts, TikTok, or Instagram Reels. 

    For me, I tend to do more long-form content naturally.  I go on a podcast, speak at a conference, or to a mastermind group.  I end up with a 30-minute+ video that I don't have the time or interest in using.  This tool allows me to find the best parts quickly – and still allows editing to make it perfect. 

    For someone interested in really pursuing video, it's not worth it.  If you're interested in being present online, and not worried about making it your career, this is a great tool to streamline and systematize your process. 

    Type.AI 

    Type.AI is an interesting AI-first document editing tool.  At its core, Type is a faster, better, and easier way to write.

    A lot of people are using chat GPT for some editing.  Type is a good example of a next-generation tool that incorporates ChatGPT and other LLMs under the surface.  It is aware of what you are doing and lets you know what it can do. 

    Type jumpstarts the creative process and banishes the blank page.  Underneath its gorgeous UI are powerful features for generating ideas, querying your document, experimenting with different models, and easily formatting your work.

    The point is that with a tool like this, you don't have to be good at prompt engineering.  The tool does that for you – so you can focus on the writing.

    GetVoila.AI 

    Voilà is an all-in-one AI assistant in a browser extension.  That means it goes with you everywhere you go on the web and supercharges your browser by making it use ChatGPT to do what it does best without you having to do more than check what is available.
     
    Voilà simplifies the process of working with the content of websites and URLs, making it easy to convert them into various types of content, summarize them, or extract key information.  For example, if I am watching a YouTube video, I can right-click and choose "Summarize" – it creates a short video summary from the transcript.  Or, while writing this sentence, a simple right-click lets me choose: Improve, Fix grammar, Make longer, Make shorter, Summarize, Simplify, Rephrase, or Translate.
     
    This is more useful than I thought.  I use it well … then forget about it.  When I use it again, I often find that it got better.  I think you will find that with a lot of the tools these days.

     Don't worry about how well you use tools like this.  It is enough that you get better at using tools like these to accomplish what you really want.

    Explore a little.  Then, let me know what you found worth sharing.

  • How Long Do You Have Left?

    We only have a limited time on this earth – and a lot of it is taken by frivolous activities. 

    How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones … or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

    The answer is a lot.

    how we use time

    via dailyinfographic

    Nine years in front of entertainment devices – another 10.5 years spent working.  You get the idea.

    If you have goals you want to accomplish, aspirational travel, and lifestyle plans – this really puts the idea of finding and living your passion in perspective. 

    Do you have the time to waste it?

    VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

     

    OC_Life-Expectancy-by-Age_1600px_Oct31

    via visualcapitalist
     

    I turned 60 this July, so I only have 20 years left, according to this calculator.   I expect more!

    There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 … but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75. 

    While these numbers seem pretty high, there are two things to consider. First, COVID heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates went up. That likely won't continue (though it will likely continue to affect your insurance premiums and pension benefits). 

    Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which likely differ from you (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc. 

    Finally, I think Purpose is one of the most important catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire … not because they're done working, but because they're done striving. 

    If you're not growing, you're dying!

  • Social Media Is Changing Everything … 10+ Years Later

    In 2009, I wrote an article highlighting the audacious amount of texts and data my then-16-year-old son was using compared to the rest of the family … It's funny to look back on.

    Here is an excerpt from that post. 

    _______

    My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

    091019 Getson Family 240p

     Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold.  I was looking at recent phone use.  The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.

    • My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
    • I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
    • My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
    • My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.

    How can that be?  That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome. 

    But, of course, that isn't how he sees it.  He is holding many conversations at once.  Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why … some are even about homework.  Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs.  There is near instant gratification.  And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

    Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

    _______

    Fourteen years later, I send more text messages than my son, and we both use multiples of that amount of data a month. 

    I also remember scoffing at my son having his phone on hand at meetings – that it was a distraction. And yet, here I am, phone on my desk at meetings. But, e-mail is just as important as it was in 2009. 

    One of the things we miss in discussions about generations is that the trends of the younger generation are often adopted by the previous – even if they're not as tech literate. 

    Technology changes cultures for better or worse … but it's hard to look at the impact of social media and believe it hasn't been deleterious. 

    The promise and peril of technology! 

  • The Surreal World of Deepfakes And Deep AI

    Deep Learning excels in analyzing pictures & videos and creating facsimiles or combining styles.  People are using generative AI tools like ChatGPT or Midjourney increasingly frequently.  And there is an explosion of simple tools (like the Deep Dream Generator or DeepAI) that use Convolutional Neural Networks to combine your photo with an art style (if you want to do it on your phone, check out Prisma).   Here are some example photos.

    Download

    via SubSubRoutine

    The same foundation that allows us to create these cool art amalgamations also can create deepfakes.  A Deepfake is precisely what it sounds like … they use "Deep Learning" to "Fake" a recording.  For example, a machine learning technique called a Generative Adversarial Network can be used to superimpose images onto a source video.  That is how they made this fun (and disturbing) Deepfake of Jennifer Lawrence and Steve Buscemi.

     

    Another interesting technology can create AI-powered replicas of someone that don't just look and sound like them – they can respond like them too.  Examples of this are seen in tools like Replica Studios or Replika.  One of the artistic uses people have been exploring recently is getting unlikely characters to sing famous songs.  These chatbots have also been used by lonely men and women to create virtual paramours. 

    The three basic uses of deep learning (described above) are being combined to create a lot of real mainstream applications … and the potential to create convincing fakes.

    Deepfakes can be fun and funny … but they also create real concerns.  They're frequently used for more "nefarious" purposes (e.g., to create fake celebrity or revenge porn and to make important figures say things they never said).  You've likely seen videos of Trump or Biden created with this technology.   But it is easy to imagine someone faking evidence used at trial, trying to influence business transactions, or using this to support or slander causes in the media.

    As fakes get better and easier to produce, they will likely be used more often. 

    On a more functional note, you can use these technologies to create convincing replicas of yourself.  You could use that replica to record videos, send voicemails, or participate in virtual meetings for you. While I don't encourage you to use it without telling people you are, even just using the technology puts you a step ahead.