Current Affairs

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/17/10

    On the surface, the markets still look pretty good.  However, last week something happened that I consider a bearish warning sign.  The Market sold-off on good news.  Although Intel announced strong results, it looks like the market priced-in the good news already.

    In addition, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has lagged the S&P 500 recently.  Clearly, it is still in an up-trend.  However, price has pulled back to test the trend-line.  If the trend is to continue, this is where buyers should step-in.

    100118 Nasdaq Starting to Lag

    There is key support at the 2,200 level.  No alarms, yet … Just a reminder to stay vigilant.

    Is the Rally Losing Momentum?

    The rally has lasted longer than I expected.  And each time we've been at a tipping point, recently, market corrections haven't succeeded in triggering sellers.

    However, the rally has lost some of its momentum. There are many signs (like poor volume or increasing negative divergences) that point to underlying weakness.

    Is there an Unseen Hand?

    Some believe the rally is orchestrated by the government, and supported by various plunge-protection initiatives.  I find that hard to fathom.  It's a free market, and there are simply more buyers than sellers.  It doesn't matter if there are only a few buyers … price will continue to go up as long as buying pressure is stronger than selling pressure.

    Nonetheless, recent trading has stayed in a relatively narrow range.  From my standpoint, this is probably a result of a fundamental disagreement between the Bulls and the Bears. Let's look at some of the major areas of contention.

    Here are some of the reasons Bulls think the Market is still cheap enough for valuations to be attractive. 

    • The green-shoots of growth may be a sign that the economy is getting stronger.
    • Corporations are starting to invest, and M&A activity is picking-up.
    • Perhaps most important, though, is that government stimulus continues, while the Fed remains accommodative. 

    In contrast, Bears are warning that we may be at an important longer-term top.  Here are things they are watching.

    • Whether there is growth, other than from government stimulus?
    • Whether spending starts to loosen-up and grow?
    • Whether the credit crisis gets worse?
    • Whether real-estate has another leg down?
    • Whether employment numbers start to improve?

    Time will tell, and so will the charts.

    The New Bailout.

    Finally, I thought this was funny.

    Look Who Wants a Bailout

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/10/10

    Now that the New Year is here, everyone has to get back to work.

    100110 New Year's Resolutions Cartoon

    What About the Markets?

    The rally continues.  While volume hasn't been that impressive, price continues higher.

    After taking a break, the Financial Sector has picked-up some relative strength and is leading the market higher.

    100109 Financial Sector Showing Good Relative Strength

    Unemployment Still Factors Into the Equation.

    The jobs number came in worse than expected, with continued cuts and unemployment still above 10%.  Yet, the market reacted better than I expected to that news.

    100109 Current Economic Signs Cartoon

    Joking aside, here is an interactive graphic to dive a little deeper into these numbers.  Click on the picture to change the settings yourself.

    091220 Interactive Jobless Rate Visualization

    Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Meltdown’s Biggest Casualty

    Here is a video from BigThink about whether the market is as efficient as some economic theory paints it to be.  Alan Greenspan said he was shocked "that market players turned out not to be able to take care of their own interests."  Perhaps the takeaway of the recent crisis is that individual players (pursuing individual interests), collectively, will not always create an outcome which is good for the collective (or even for those individual players). Consequently, Chrystia Freeland, U.S. Managing Editor of the Financial Times, argues that the Markets needs someone or something to protect the collective interests and outcome.

    Now for something a little lighter …

    Here is a Preview of Next Year's Review.

    100109 Chappatte 2010 Review Preview

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Ten 'BreakOut!' Business Ideas Of 2009. (Forbes)
    • Four Reasons to Remain Wary About an Economic Recovery. (WSJ)
    • Will U.S. Home-Sales Data Temper Belief in the Government's Powers? (WSJ)
    • John Mauldin's 2010 Forecast – The Year of Uncertainty. (InvestorsInsight)
    • Decade Over – Here are 10 Huge Questions that Remain. (Forbes)
    • Comprehensive List of 2010 Investment Predictions & Outlooks. (PragCap)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/10/10

    Now that the New Year is here, everyone has to get back to work.

    100110 New Year's Resolutions Cartoon

    What About the Markets?

    The rally continues.  While volume hasn't been that impressive, price continues higher.

    After taking a break, the Financial Sector has picked-up some relative strength and is leading the market higher.

    100109 Financial Sector Showing Good Relative Strength

    Unemployment Still Factors Into the Equation.

    The jobs number came in worse than expected, with continued cuts and unemployment still above 10%.  Yet, the market reacted better than I expected to that news.

    100109 Current Economic Signs Cartoon

    Joking aside, here is an interactive graphic to dive a little deeper into these numbers.  Click on the picture to change the settings yourself.

    091220 Interactive Jobless Rate Visualization

    Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Meltdown’s Biggest Casualty

    Here is a video from BigThink about whether the market is as efficient as some economic theory paints it to be.  Alan Greenspan said he was shocked "that market players turned out not to be able to take care of their own interests."  Perhaps the takeaway of the recent crisis is that individual players (pursuing individual interests), collectively, will not always create an outcome which is good for the collective (or even for those individual players). Consequently, Chrystia Freeland, U.S. Managing Editor of the Financial Times, argues that the Markets needs someone or something to protect the collective interests and outcome.

    Now for something a little lighter …

    Here is a Preview of Next Year's Review.

    100109 Chappatte 2010 Review Preview

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Ten 'BreakOut!' Business Ideas Of 2009. (Forbes)
    • Four Reasons to Remain Wary About an Economic Recovery. (WSJ)
    • Will U.S. Home-Sales Data Temper Belief in the Government's Powers? (WSJ)
    • John Mauldin's 2010 Forecast – The Year of Uncertainty. (InvestorsInsight)
    • Decade Over – Here are 10 Huge Questions that Remain. (Forbes)
    • Comprehensive List of 2010 Investment Predictions & Outlooks. (PragCap)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Waving Goodbye to Last Year

    As you start making progress on your New Year's Resolutions and 2010, I thought I'd share these two videos to put last year in perspective and chronicle some of its happenings.

    One of the new technologies to generate a buzz last year was Google Wave. Even if you don't understand what it can do, you can appreciate how it's used here.

    Finally, JibJab brings a little humor its retrospective.

    Best Wishes and Good Luck in 2010.

  • Waving Goodbye to Last Year

    As you start making progress on your New Year's Resolutions and 2010, I thought I'd share these two videos to put last year in perspective and chronicle some of its happenings.

    One of the new technologies to generate a buzz last year was Google Wave. Even if you don't understand what it can do, you can appreciate how it's used here.

    Finally, JibJab brings a little humor its retrospective.

    Best Wishes and Good Luck in 2010.

  • Past Performance Doesn’t Limit the Future

    How will history view the past decade?

    091231 Summing-Up the Decade

    In my holiday greeting, this year, I chose the phrase: "I hope that you are grateful for the things that are great in your life, that you choose what you can use from the things weren't great … and that you invest those lessons in your future."

    We can learn from history, so we don't have to repeat it (unless we choose to).

    For Your New Year, Here is an Old Irish Blessing.

    Here's to the bright New Year,

    And a fond farewell to the old;

    Here's to the things that are yet to come,

    And to the memories that we hold.

    May God be with you and bless you.

    May the best of this year be the worst of the next.

    May you be poor in misfortune, rich in blessings.

    May you know nothing but happiness.

    From this day forward …

    Happy New Year!

  • Past Performance Doesn’t Limit the Future

    How will history view the past decade?

    091231 Summing-Up the Decade

    In my holiday greeting, this year, I chose the phrase: "I hope that you are grateful for the things that are great in your life, that you choose what you can use from the things weren't great … and that you invest those lessons in your future."

    We can learn from history, so we don't have to repeat it (unless we choose to).

    For Your New Year, Here is an Old Irish Blessing.

    Here's to the bright New Year,

    And a fond farewell to the old;

    Here's to the things that are yet to come,

    And to the memories that we hold.

    May God be with you and bless you.

    May the best of this year be the worst of the next.

    May you be poor in misfortune, rich in blessings.

    May you know nothing but happiness.

    From this day forward …

    Happy New Year!

  • A Data Visualization of the Past Decade

    Here is a clever way to capture a lot of information.  It also seems like a
    good technique to try with personal or business information … or
    (with a little modification) even to use as a planning tool.

    You can click the image to get the full-size version.

    091231 Decade in Pictures

    From the NYTimes.

  • A Data Visualization of the Past Decade

    Here is a clever way to capture a lot of information.  It also seems like a
    good technique to try with personal or business information … or
    (with a little modification) even to use as a planning tool.

    You can click the image to get the full-size version.

    091231 Decade in Pictures

    From the NYTimes.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/27/09

    Since I'm spending the holidays in Asia, I thought I'd share a few lighter things this week.

    First up is the Elf-Yourself site from JibJab.  And my wife says I can't dance.

    Send your own ElfYourself eCards

    Click here to make one yourself.

    Second, here is something I look forward to each year.  Uncle Jay sings the year in review.

    Market Commentary.

    At the end of each year, the big financial media outlets typically conduct roundtables to get outlooks from key players in the financial markets.  Over the past few years, the individuals that run the best financial blogs and websites have become key players in their own rights, and their opinions are highly regarded by millions of loyal readers.  This year, Bespoke asked twelve popular financial blogs/websites to respond to the same 25 questions regarding their 2010 outlooks as well as their take on 2009. 

     091226 Bespoke Roundtable

    The responses were thought-provoking, and hopefully they will help you form your opinions on what is to come for financial markets in the year ahead. 

    Best Wishes for a happy holiday season and for a prosperous New Year.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week