Current Affairs

  • A Look At OpenAI & Their Move Toward IPO

    As OpenAI shifts toward a platform-based model and prepares for a future IPO, it feels like we are at a transformative moment for both the company and the broader AI industry.

    At their recent DevDay 2025 event, OpenAI unveiled a range of new tools and upgrades, including:

    • Apps in ChatGPT – Developers can now build and integrate apps directly in ChatGPT using a new SDK
    • AgentKit – a new toolkit to build production-grade AI agents
    • New and Cheaper Models, and
    • Codex updates – their AI coding/developer assistant model is now out of preview and integrated with enterprise controls.

    These new tools signal more than incremental upgrades — they foreshadow OpenAI’s evolution into a technology platform with the capacity to shape industries well beyond artificial intelligence.

    If you‘ve paid attention, this is a big concept within my Technology Adoption Model. The four base stages of this framework are: Capability, Prototype, Product, and Platform. 

    While the stages of the Technology Adoption Model Framework are important, the key point is that you don’t need to predict what’s coming; you just need to understand how human nature responds to the capabilities in front of them.

    Desire fuels attention, talent, opportunities, and commerce. As money starts to flow, the path forward is relatively easy to imagine. As public interest and investment in advanced AI grow, opportunities for innovation and commercial breakthroughs become more accessible.

    This model is fractal. It works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

    What initially appears to be a Product is later revealed as a Prototype for something larger.

    Likewise, as a Product transforms into a Platform, it becomes almost like an industry of its own. Consequently, it becomes the seed for a new set of Capabilities, Prototypes, and Products.

    With OpenAI’s shift from product to platform, it’s unsurprising that both its infrastructure and corporate structure are evolving to meet new needs.

    OpenAI’s Eventual IPO

    On Tuesday, OpenAI announced the completion of a corporate restructuring that simplified its structure into a controlling non-profit entity and a reimagined for-profit subsidiary.

    The umbrella non-profit organization will be rebranded as the OpenAI Foundation, and the for-profit entity will be called the OpenAI Group. The goal is likely to IPO before 2027.

    The OpenAI Foundation organization will receive a 26% stake in the OpenAI Group, a share that would be worth $130 billion at the early-October valuation.

    For now, the for-profit’s board will consist solely of the non-profit’s board members. However, the shift will enable investors and partners to more easily generate returns from their investments, paving the way for a potential public offering.

    Sam Altman says they are committed to spending roughly $1.4 trillion on the chips and data centers needed to train and power their artificial intelligence systems.

    The Former Non-Profit

    When OpenAI launched in 2015, many were enamored with the non-profit status and its mission to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI) benefits all of humanity. That status was proof of a clear mission and a focus on helping humanity, rather than harming it in the pursuit of short-term profits.

    This shift from the original mission has some worried about a new potential mission, weakened oversight, and increased risk, especially considering how much more powerful AGI is today compared to 10 years ago.

    Like it or not, the hybrid model was the only “reasonable” path forward, since they decided to compete in this AGI race. If they fully abandoned their non-profit status, they would have had to buy their non-profit’s assets for “fair market value”, which likely would have meant a $500 billion price tag.

    Meanwhile, companies like  Google DeepMind, Microsoft, Amazon, Anthropic, and Mistral AI are already for-profit entities making massive strides (not to mention, Microsoft has invested billions into OpenAI, and will be receiving a 27% stake in the OpenAI Group).

    Where OpenAI is Today

    While it’s fun to think about the future – and what the restructuring will do for investment and innovation, it also helps to understand their current infrastructure.

    via visualcapitalist

    OpenAI has spawned a large, networked ecosystem comprising numerous major organizations, complex contracts, and substantial financial investments.

    The chart above shows three separate flows: compute, cash, and contracts.

    The biggest nodes in the diagram should look familiar. Microsoft not only provides compute through Azure, but also has invested capital and GPU credits back into OpenAI. Nvidia (now worth ~ $5 trillion) not only provides the mass majority of the GPUs to OpenAI, but accounts for around 16% of America’s current GDP,

    Nvidia continues to dominate the semiconductor industry, with a market valuation nearly three times higher than its closest U.S. competitor, even as OpenAI begins to partner more deeply with AMD.

    GPUs, Datacenters, and AGI, Oh My!

    While OpenAI’s leadership and strategic partnerships are crucial, their future progress relies heavily on access to an increasing amount of advanced GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) — arguably the most strategic resource in today’s AI landscape.

    But, GPUs are costly. Demand often outstrips supply, and their production depends on cutting-edge manufacturing. Consequently, the supply chain remains fragile due to limited materials, as well as geopolitical and logistical issues that could send shockwaves throughout the entire sector.

    Demand has grown so intense that businesses are reserving capacity months or even years in advance. In rare cases, some even use GPUs as collateral to secure financing, reinforcing their role as a new strategic commodity.

    Data centers — the facilities that house and power those GPUs — are also costly. They require substantial amounts of electricity, cooling, physical space, and high-speed networking to support AI workloads.

    Together, these costs make scaling AI models (like those from OpenAI) very expensive. Even if OpenAI can build smarter models, it’s limited by the number of GPUs and data centers it can access or afford, creating a bottleneck in growth and deployment.

    So, while some people are upset about this transition away from their non-profit status, I think it was inevitable and predictable.

    We’re at a turning point in artificial intelligence as a whole.

    OpenAI’s switch marks a clear swing in the pendulum. For users, businesses, and developers, it means faster innovation, better products, and a clearer path toward scaling powerful AI (we hope responsibly).

    That said, there are still real challenges ahead. Finding equilibrium between commercial interests and mission-driven goals is challenging. Likewise, even well-intentioned oversight can strain under market pressures. Massive infrastructure investments can create higher barriers to entry for smaller players, potentially concentrating power among a few large companies. And while OpenAI’s scale and resources set it up for breakthroughs, they don’t guarantee them—execution, safety, and responsible deployment remain critical.

    In short, OpenAI’s impending IPO and platform pivot mark a defining moment in AI history. While its scale and investment signal immense opportunities, they also invite crucial scrutiny. The road ahead will depend on how OpenAI manages the delicate balance between rapid innovation, financial pressures, and the broader public good. As this story unfolds, what happens next will shape the very fabric of our technological future.

    Onwards!

  • The Cloud Experiences Rain … Lessons from the “Great” Outages

    Cloud technology powers our daily lives — from workplace applications to smart beds. Just like AI, it‘s the underpinning for many technologies that are now largely unnoticed by the average consumer. Over the past two weeks, two major outages helped us realize how deeply connected — and vulnerable — our systems have become.

    First, on October 20, Amazon‘s AWS US-EAST-1 region went down, and it felt like the world stopped, in part, because AWS powers over 30% of the cloud market.

    via Al Jazeera

    Ironically, even 8Sleep users experienced outages. Why does a bed have a cloud dependency (and why does it send 16GB of data a month)? Because you can’t manage what you don’t measure. Part of that involves data, and another part involves updates and reporting. You can expect an increasing number of our household appliances to require cloud access.

    Then, barely a week later, on October 29, Microsoft Azure experienced its own outage, affecting Microsoft 365, Kroger, Alaska Airlines, and even the Scottish Parliament.

    A helpful reminder that when it rains, it pours, and even in the business of “uptime,” you should plan for downtime.

    So, what happened?

    Amazon AWS

    The outage in the US-EAST-1 region (Northern Virginia) originated from a malfunction in an internal subsystem that monitors the health of network load balancers (within the Amazon DynamoDB API domain). This triggered Domain Name System (DNS) resolution failures, making key services unreachable or very slow.

    AWS has 38 geographic regions (with plans to add 3 more). But US-EAST-1 was AWS’s first region, and is the largest, making it the default for documentation, new features, and cost-sensitive users. Additionally, some critical “global” AWS services have their control planes hosted in US-East-1, meaning an outage in this region can impact services in other regions too. 

    Microsoft Azure

    Microsoft’s outage was triggered by an “inadvertent CDN configuration change” affecting the Azure Front Door (a global content-delivery / routing service), which resulted in widespread DNS and routing problems.

    Both AWS and Azure experienced DNS issues, which anyone in tech should recognize as the most common point of failure in situations like this.

    via Statista

    But, since Amazon and Microsoft account for over 50% of cloud infrastructure, errors become especially noticeable.

    Is Centralization the Issue?

    To many, this seems like a call to break up these powers and spread responsibility.

    “If a company can break the entire internet, they are too big …”

    Not only is this not how the internet works, but it’s not how business works. Breaking up these providers would make it harder and more expensive for small businesses to compete. Access makes things cheaper.

    As we discuss these global “utility” providers, it is beneficial to have a few key vendors. You don’t want it to be one. Then you get into monopoly territory. But, scale lowers cost. Most people understand this.

    The reality is that, when compared to previous issues, Amazon has significantly improved its resiliency. They’ve also made efforts to lower the global dependence on US-EAST-1.

    Before I go forward, it’s worth reminding people that the cloud is ultimately just a computer that you don’t own. Granted, it’s a very large computer with incredible infrastructure. But it is still a glorified computer. It will never be invincible and 100% faultless.

    What Should I Learn From This Situation?

    I am reminded of a great image from Randall Munroe and XKCD. It has been adapted to fit the current situation.

    via XKCD

    The reality is every system is fallible. Any sufficiently complex system will create bottlenecks and failure points.

    The lesson isn’t decentralization, it’s redundancy.

    One of the lessons a mentor taught me was that planning for failure is an important part of hoping for success.

    It’s great to look toward the future and be proud of all that you’re doing things the right way. However, without a disaster recovery plan and redundancies for failures, you’ll eventually face consequences.

    Without a plan, downtime can result in lost revenue, damaged trust, and data exposure. A good recovery strategy ensures that when your primary systems fail, you have a clear path to restore operations quickly and minimize disruption and business impact.

    To be transparent, we were also affected by the AWS outage. AWS is one of our key providers. However, because we have systems on other platforms and strategies in place, we were able to navigate it without a significant impact on our business.

    Building safeguards starts with redundancy — distributing workloads across regions, providers, and availability zones so no single failure can take you down. It can even be as simple as moving your main AWS region away from US-EAST-1.

    Here are some other strategies to consider:

    • Combine automated backups with regular failover testing to ensure optimal system uptime.
    • Document your recovery playbook so your team isn’t scrambling in the dark.
    • Implement real-time monitoring, alerting, and security protocols that detect minor issues before they escalate into major problems.
    • Put expiration dates on decisions (especially automated ones) to make sure that it’s still the correct choice (long after you forget that you made the decision in the first place).

    No system is immune to failure. That means that as exponential technologies power more of our world, mistakes and outages will happen (probably more often than they do now).

    You can’t prevent every outage, but you can dramatically increase the odds that it’s a manageable inconvenience, rather than a potential catastrophe.

    What safeguards are you putting in place today?

    Hope that helps.

  • What Peter Thiel’s “Antichrist” Lectures Reveal About Power, Spectacle, and the Architecture of Influence

    When Peter Thiel gives a talk, people listen — even when the topic sounds absurd. His recent four-part lecture series on “The Antichrist,” delivered quietly at San Francisco’s Commonwealth Club, wasn’t a theological confession. It was a strategy session hidden in plain sight.

    Thiel, the billionaire co-founder of PayPal and Palantir, has always been more interested in shaping systems than following them. Despite the theological-sounding implications of “The Antichrist lectures, they were less about religion than about recruitment — turning controversy into capital, ideas into networks, and attention into influence. It was a masterclass in the the secret architecture of modern power.

    This article is an opinion piece, but hopefully it provides some perspective and makes you think differently about his talks and the world we live in today.

    The Power of the Spectacle

    Thiel understands that spectacle builds infrastructure. What looks like provocation is often a mechanism for attracting talent, capital, and alignment.

    When he labels critics like Greta Thunberg or AI safety advocates as part of a modern “Antichrist,” he isn’t preaching apocalypse. He’s reframing the narrative — turning complex policy debates into moral showdowns between “progress” and “stagnation”, “good” and “evil”, and “us” and “them”.

    That framing does three things:

    1. Rallies allies who see themselves as defenders of innovation.
    2. Shuts down compromise by making opposition feel immoral.
    3. Creates pipelines of sympathetic people into his orbit — whether as investors, engineers, or policymakers.

    Thiel has used this playbook for decades. His contrarian campus newspaper at Stanford laid the groundwork for the early network that later became the PayPal Mafia. Each “provocation” seeds something lasting: an organization, a company, or a political foothold.

    From Theater to Infrastructure

    The cycle is predictable but powerful (and he isn’t the only one using this playbook)!

    1. Make a bold statement that challenges an elite consensus.
    2. Generate media attention — some mocking, some intrigued.
    3. Convert that attention into loyalty, funding, or influence.

    The “Antichrist” lectures follow that path. They signal to libertarian thinkers, anti-establishment technologists, and ambitious policy entrepreneurs that there’s an alternative network willing to reward dissent and action.

    Over time, those recruits show up inside Thiel-backed ventures, think tanks, and government roles. The result is a quiet ecosystem of influence — people who share Thiel’s outlook but operate independently enough to give him plausible deniability.

    Power by Proxy

    Thiel rarely holds a formal title in politics, but his fingerprints are everywhere. His protégés hold key positions in the current administration, including Vice President JD Vance and tech policy advisor David Sacks.

    The model is simple: invest early, cultivate loyalty, and let others hold the office. It’s a light form of proxy governance — influence routed through protégés, funds, and companies like Palantir.

    That distance matters. Thiel can shape outcomes without being directly accountable for them. If things go wrong, the damage is absorbed by the proxy; if they go right, the structure persists and Theil’s systems endure and expand.

    It’s the same logic that drives venture capital: spread bets, build leverage, exit before exposure.

    Portfolio Politics

    Thiel treats politics like a hedge fund manager treats a portfolio — invest when upside potential is high, step back when volatility rises, and re-enter when conditions are favorable.

    He was one of the few Silicon Valley figures to back Donald Trump early in 2016. When that bet paid off, he quietly helped fill key tech roles in the administration. As scandals mounted, he withdrew from public view — protecting his brand while his network continued to grow.

    That approach now defines a broader class of politically active billionaires. Rather than permanent loyalty, they practice situational alignment — entering and exiting political cycles the way investors trade around risk.

    The result is a marketplace of influence that operates on financial logic, rather than ideological consistency.

    Palantir: Power as Product

    Nowhere is Thiel’s strategy clearer than in Palantir, his data analytics company that supplies intelligence systems to governments around the world.

    Palantir’s tools merge disparate data sources into powerful surveillance and decision-making platforms. The irony is striking: Thiel often warns about government overreach, yet his company provides the very tools that enable it.

    Palantir’s expansion shows how spectacle transforms into structure. While Thiel distracts critics with rhetorical fireworks, his firm embeds itself deeper into the machinery of government — turning influence into infrastructure.

    By the time watchdogs notice, it’s not just a contract; it’s a dependency.

    The Visibility Game

    Thiel is a master of managing visibility — knowing when to provoke and when to disappear.

    High-visibility moments (like the “Antichrist” lectures or his RNC speech) draw attention, attract recruits, and keep his ideas circulating. But he balances that with strategic opacity: dark-money nonprofits, off-the-record talks, and layers of intermediaries that make it difficult to trace influence directly back to him.

    Visibility, for Thiel, is not about fame — it’s a control variable. When exposure threatens, he retreats into the shadows. When opportunity rises, he re-emerges to shape the conversation again.

    Why It Works

    The playbook works because it exploits how attention and trust now operate. In an era of fragmented media, a polarizing figure doesn’t need majority approval — only a committed minority who see opposition as proof of authenticity.

    Mockery from one camp signals credibility to another. Every backlash becomes free marketing.

    Thiel’s critics see demagoguery; his supporters see courage. Both drive the same outcome: a stronger network growing around him.

    Hate it or love it, you’re playing into his hand.

    The Broader Silicon Valley Pattern

    Thiel isn’t alone in this model. Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, and President Trump each use variations of the same pattern: build wealth, use contrarian rhetoric to shape public narratives, align with political movements that favor deregulation, and embed their companies into national infrastructure.

    This isn’t traditional lobbying. It’s structural capture — designing systems so your interests and the public’s become indistinguishable. When a government depends on your software, influence no longer requires persuasion; it’s built in.

    Implications for Business and Governance

    For business leaders, there are three big takeaways from Thiel’s evolving strategy.

    1. Spectacle Can Be Strategy

    In the information age, attention is leverage. But attention only matters if it feeds a system — a company, a fund, a policy agenda. Thiel’s provocations aren’t distractions; they’re signals to attract like-minded talent and capital.

    If your organization isn’t thinking about how to turn visibility into structure, you’re leaving value — and resilience — on the table.

    2. Influence Flows Through Networks, Not Titles

    Formal authority is less important than the networks that surround it. Whether in politics or business, power increasingly operates through proxies — advisors, think tanks, and companies that outlast any single election or CEO.

    Understanding those relationships is now part of strategic due diligence. Who funds whom? Who sits on which board? Whose ideas are quietly shaping policy? Mapping those links can reveal more than any headline.

    3. Transparency Is the Next Competitive Advantage

    In a landscape built on strategic opacity, honesty becomes a differentiator. Companies that disclose their political relationships and governance structures early will earn trust faster than those forced into transparency later.

    Building internal awareness — of funding sources, advisory roles, and ideological alignments — isn’t just ethics. It’s risk management.

    What Comes Next

    We’re watching a new architecture of power take shape. It’s decentralized, data-driven, and designed for anti-fragility. The traditional boundaries between business, politics, and media are dissolving.

    Ten years from now, billionaire-funded policy ecosystems will be standard infrastructure. “Proxy governance” will be the norm. And moralized, apocalyptic rhetoric will be a mainstream political tool. Not that it‘s not already present.

    That doesn’t mean the system is unstoppable. But it does mean leaders must adapt. Power today isn’t just about what you directly control; it’s about the systems you can influence, and the attention you can direct.

    The Bottom Line

    Peter Thiel’s “Antichrist” lectures weren’t really about religion. They were a masterclass in how modern influence works — how ideas, money, and media can align to shape the institutions that shape us.

    It’s easy to dismiss such performances as fringe. It’s harder to recognize them as part of the operating system of 21st-century power.

    For anyone running a business or managing capital, the lesson is simple:

    • Pay attention to the networks behind the noise.
    • Follow how spectacle feeds structure.
    • And when possible, build moats where they are least expected.

    History is written by the winners … and the real contest isn’t over who gets the microphone, it’s about who designs the stage.

    Onwards!

    P.S. Here’s a “response” from the actual antichrist. It’s pretty funny.

  • Does A Larger Workforce Mean More Millionaires?

    Does the size of a country’s workforce determine its wealthiest citizens?

    Beyond Headcount—The Real Drivers of Wealth

    In a world shaped by rapid technological change and evolving labor dynamics, this post explores which nations lead in workforce size, where millionaires reside, and why capital concentration often defies population trends.

    Recent research by Visual Capitalist sheds light on both the world’s largest workforces and the distribution of wealth among its richest citizens.

    via visualcapitalist

    Unsurprisingly, Asia dominates the global workforce, with China and India accounting for over 1.3 billion workers.

    Although the U.S. trails far behind China and India in absolute workforce size, it maintains a strong position as the world’s third-largest labor force with 174 million workers.

    Africa’s workforce is rapidly expanding – with potential to double by 2050.

    Following the Wealth Flows

    As we know, workforce isn’t the only factor that influences where wealth flows. For example:

    • Global trade & resource distribution,
    • Financial & governmental policies,
    • Urbanization & tech Infrastructure,
    • And, access to opportunities

    Where Wealth Accumulates

    In 2025, we’ve surpassed 60 million millionaires worldwide.

    Together, this group holds over $226 trillion in wealth.

    via visualcapitalist

    America, China, and France top the list – holding over half the global total. If you were to imagine the list as 10 people, four would live in America, one would live in China, and the rest would be scattered across the globe.

    France, Germany, and the UK, are relatively small populations boasting outsized ratios of millionaires.

    Notably, almost 1/10 American adults are millionaires (Luxembourg and Switzerland top this ratio with 1/7). That surprises me.

    Also, while major cities like New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco remain millionaire hubs, Scottsdale, Arizona, actually boasts the fastest millionaire growth over the last decade.

    Ultimately, I think it’s clear that a large labor force doesn’t necessarily translate into a large population of millionaires. Countries like India and Indonesia rank among the biggest contributors to the global workforce, yet their per capita wealth remains modest. Meanwhile, nations such as the United States, Japan, and Germany — home to far smaller workforces — consistently dominate global millionaire rankings.

    Why Efficiency Beats Size

    Countries like the United States demonstrate how access to markets and capital, combined with robust innovation ecosystems, drive wealth far beyond population scale.

    The difference lies less in the number of workers and more in the structure of opportunity: productivity, access to capital, innovation, and financial markets create wealth far faster than population alone. In short, a big workforce builds economies — but efficient systems and upward mobility build millionaires.

    Economic opportunity grows when connections (between people, ideas, and markets) multiply — think of a telephone network: one phone is useless, but as more connect, the system’s value rises exponentially.

    Disruptive innovation often happens in small, focused markets before scaling. Early adoption, not just raw numbers, signals where outsized returns will come.

    As AI continues to shift productivity from in-person humans to digital agents, the very nature of value, employment, and opportunity will likely undergo a profound transformation. It will also change what we believe is possible.

    For example, I expect to see a one-person Unicorn as artificial agent technologies become more capable, scalable, and adaptive.

    Conclusion: Building Pathways to Prosperity

    In summary, a large labor force may grow economies, but upward mobility and innovation are the true engines of millionaire creation. For leaders aiming to foster national prosperity, the goal should be cultivating efficient, inclusive systems — not merely expanding the workforce.

    We live in interesting times!

  • The Rise of Stablecoins

    A few months ago, I wrote about how cryptocurrency was entering the mainstream.

    To recap that piece: I’ve historically been skeptical and resistant about crypto on several fronts. Still, I’ve recognized that blockchain and decentralized finance are here to stay.

    One of my biggest arguments against crypto is that governments have fiercely protected their right to print money and tax it. Now, even governments are warming up to crypto. Additionally, regulators are getting on board. Big banks and established industries are creating infrastructure. As the momentum builds, the push toward crypto seems unavoidable.

    New giants were — and are —forming. Coinbase recently joined the S&P 500. Circle just had a wildly successful IPO. The performance of stocks like these also hints at a growing market appetite for crypto-focused businesses.

    Some of this momentum has been fueled by policy shifts during the Trump presidency and his administration’s openness to the space. Yet even with that tailwind, I believe there are still significant barriers to the adoption of most cryptocurrencies—barriers that stablecoins, in particular, are designed to address.

    The Stablecoin Surge

    Since that article, tremendous growth continues. And if you haven’t paid attention to stablecoins yet, it’s time to start paying attention.

    What is a Stablecoin?

    Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to a traditional currency like the US dollar (e.g., 1 stablecoin = $1 USD). Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, which can swing wildly in price, stablecoins aim for predictability.

    Think of stablecoins as the digital equivalent of cash — useful for transactions, storing value, and moving money across borders without the volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies.

    via visualcapitalist

    The stablecoin market has seen a 10X increase in just five years. In fact, their transfer volume is now more than both Visa and Mastercard.

    They’ve quickly grown from a niche asset to one of the fastest-growing market segments.

    Citi projects that the market will grow 6.7X to 14.2X in the next 5 years. Their justification is based on three main pillars.

    • the reallocation of US cash and deposits into digital tokens,
    • the substitution of international short-term liquidity tools with stablecoins,
    • and the growing role of stablecoins as the backbone of cryptocurrency adoption (in a growing ecosystem)

    It’s also worth noting that stablecoins have become a kind of “parking spot” for capital moving in and out of crypto trades. As smart contracts have enabled holders to earn yield by lending, providing liquidity, or farming rewards, stablecoins’ appeal has only grown.

    A Glimpse of Crypto’s Future

    It’s easy to imagine a future of money built on digital tokens. Stablecoins appear to be the first step toward that future.

    Just like everything else … it’s happening faster than you think.

    A few weeks ago, we took a look at the state of the US dollar.

    This week, visualcapitalist released a graphic looking the value of stablecoins in relation to US cash in circulation.

    via visualcapitalist

    Comparing the market value of stablecoins to the amount of U.S. currency in circulation (bills and coins) shows that stablecoins now make up about 11% of that total. That’s a remarkable jump in just five years.

    The industry keeps innovating, and stablecoins are increasingly becoming part of traditional finance. I expect this trend to grow faster soon.

    What’s your opinion on how quickly stablecoins might transform the monetary landscape?

  • The History of Government Shutdowns

    Introduction: The October 2025 Shutdown

    When Congress failed to agree on a last-minute deal on October 1, 2025, the United States faced its eleventh federal government shutdown — forcing hundreds of thousands of workers into furlough, halting essential services, and sending shockwaves through the nation.

    Though often discussed in the abstract, government shutdowns have tangible consequences — missed paychecks, shuttered programs, and an atmosphere of uncertainty for millions of Americans.

    What led to this impasse, and how does it compare to shutdowns of the past?

    This standoff is marked by familiar accusations of brinkmanship from both parties — Republicans advocating a ‘clean’ funding extension, while Democrats insist on safeguarding healthcare subsidies and advancing key priorities before any agreement is reached.

    The fallout and costs reach far beyond furloughed government workers. It also affects broader economic stability. and millions of Americans who rely on federal services.

    A Brief History of Federal Shutdowns

    This is the 11th shutdown in our history. However, before the 1980s, funding gaps typically did not affect government operations, as agencies assumed funding would eventually be approved.

    The most recent prior shutdown, in 2019, centered on funding for President Trump’s border wall with Mexico and dragged on for 34 days — setting the record for the longest shutdown in American history.

    While the duration of this shutdown remains uncertain, historical shutdowns offer important perspective.

    via voronoi

    Obviously, the duration of this one is unclear. It is likely it will end via a “continuing resolution” which has ended every shutdown since the 90s.

    As a whole, funding gaps have grown longer in recent shutdowns, so many are assuming this one will continue that trend.

    Although we hope that cooler heads will prevail, today’s sharply divided political climate makes a swift end to the shutdown unlikely.

    Is It Different This Time?

    According to The Hill, GOP senators thought they were close on Thursday to a bipartisan agreement that would have led to the end of the shutdown. On Friday, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer urged his colleagues to resist the House-passed funding measure until Republicans made significant concessions on extending the health premium tax credits.

    It’s entirely possible that Trump will use this shutdown as further justification to cut agencies and fire federal employees. It’s also a potential tool to put pressure on Democrats to vote for the funding bill to pass.

    Regardless, as of today, Democrats are holding firm in their opposition, with Schumer arguing that 70% of Americans support the ACA premium tax credit.

    What’s at Stake?

    It’s an interesting time to be an American. Last week, we talked about the potential need to reimagine the American Dream: Although buying a home and raising a family has become more challenging, we simultaneously live in an era of unprecedented prosperity and opportunity.

    Despite these advantages, rates of unhappiness, loneliness, and distrust in institutions have been rising. This tension between abundance and discontent now defines the American experience. It’s a sobering reminder that material progress does not guarantee unity, shared purpose, or collective well-being.

    As Americans await a resolution, this stalemate serves as a reflection of deeper divisions within our society. Beyond deadlines and dollars, the shutdown raises a pressing question:

    What will it take for our leaders (and our nation) to move beyond gridlock and toward lasting unity?

    Onwards!

  • Ritual & Meaning of Yom Kippur – The Day of Atonement

    Thursday was Yom Kippur, which translates to “Day of Atonement” and is one of the High Holy Days in the Jewish religion. This year, as I sat in synagogue, I found myself reflecting on my own challenges deeply. While tradition calls for communal prayers and rituals, I realized how much these ancient practices are really about the individual journey to become better.

    The Persistant Challenges of Human Nature

    Ancient prayers can reveal timeless struggles.

    As part of the atonement process, participants read a list of sins (available here), apologize for those committed, and ask for forgiveness. I would encourage you to read that list and use it to think about your life and the impact you have on those around you. These issues are likely to be both timely and timeless. The list is thousands of years old, yet it’s still surprisingly relevant.

    As I went through the list, two things struck me. First, regardless of the changes in the world over time (technology, geopolitics, urbanization, mobility, etc.), human nature remains relatively unchanged (otherwise, the issues on the list would seem quaint or outdated). Second, despite all that has changed in the World, these issues remain important. That suggests that these issues are more important than most people realize.

    A Time for Reflection and Commitment

    Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  It’s not just black and white or right and wrong … Frequency, intensity, and duration matter too.

    This past year has brought its share of challenges. Yet, Yom Kippur isn’t a time for self-pity or blame — it is a call to look inward with honesty, to reflect, and to commit anew to becoming our best selves.

    With that in mind, another prayer read on Yom Kippur is Unetaneh Tokef. This prayer paints a powerful image of judgment day, depicting the fate and destiny of every person — prompting deep introspection about our choices and actions.

    To set some context, the theme of the High Holy Days is a Divine decree being written about your Life … think about it as a yearly judgment day. Supposedly, on Rosh Hashana, three books are opened in Heaven – one for the thoroughly wicked, one for the thoroughly righteous, and one for those in-between. The thoroughly righteous are immediately inscribed clearly in the Book of Life. The thoroughly wicked are immediately inscribed clearly in the Book of Death. The fate of those in-between is postponed from Rosh Hashana until Yom Kippur, at which time those who are deserving are then inscribed in the Book of Life, those who are undeserving are then inscribed in the Book of Death.

    Below is a brief excerpt from the prayer that captures the spirit of the judgment each person faces. 

    Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

    On one hand, you can read that and pray for Divine intervention (or perhaps favor), or you can recognize that we each have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean. Your choices about these things have real power to create the experience and environment you will live in next year.

    Thoughts On Connection

    This year’s sermon focused on connection. In past years, the message often centered on being present in the moment — acting with intention and living in alignment with your values. This year was no different at its core, but the Rabbi approached it from a fresh angle. He compared one’s connection to God with the connections we nurture — or neglect — with a spouse, a sibling, or a child. His point was that it’s not enough to be present in the moment; we must also be present with each other. I appreciated that distinction and found myself wondering where I might be “phoning it in.” Living in alignment internally is only half the work … we need to practice that alignment outwardly, too.

    What Kintsugi Can Teach Us About Healing

    We can learn from many other cultures. For example, let’s look at  Kintsugi. It is the Japanese art of repairing broken ceramics with lacquer dusted or mixed with powdered gold, silver, or platinum. This process highlights the object’s “scars” rather than concealing them. It is rooted in the philosophy that breakage and repair are part of an object’s history and can make it more beautiful and resilient. The artform can also serve as a metaphor for embracing flaws and past traumas as sources of strength and beauty.

    This concept is an excellent reminder as we unpack the “trauma” of shootings, culture wars, actual wars, and more. Progress isn’t always linear — every setback is a part of our story, and even our scars can be sources of wisdom and strength. As we heal, we should also strive to help heal the world around us. In the Jewish faith, that concept is called Tikkun Olam. 

    Transformation Is Closer Than You Think

    One of the themes of Yom Kippur is that you’re only one good deed from tipping the scale towards good for yourself and others. As you recognize and repent for your sins, it’s also important to appreciate the good you did (and do) as well. 

    As I look at my year, atone, and look forward, I’m reminded of two definitions I heard recently. 

    One is that “intelligence” can be defined as the ability to get or move towards what you want … and the second is that “learning” is the ability to get a better result in the same situation.

    I choose to look at going forward as a chance to clear the slate and Be and Do better … personally, professionally, in the business, and in relationships. I know that there’s lots of room for improvement, opportunities for growth, and the ability to simply put the past behind me and focus on a better future.

    Initially, I looked at Capitalogix as a technology company that built trading and fund management capabilities. Over time, I realized that the team, our tools, and the things we do backstage are more valuable than the front-stage results that we produce. We can leverage these to amplify intelligence in virtually any industry.

    The future is going to be about making better decisions, taking better actions, and continually improving performance. That won’t really change. Almost everything else will. So, the business is really about the things that don’t change.

    I think this is probably true in life as well. Many parts of you change … but the part of you that doesn’t is really the core of who you are.

    Sprinting Towards What You Want

    With roughly 80 days left in the year, it’s easy to get caught up in frustrations over politics or inflation, blaming outside forces for unmet goals. Yet, these remaining days are also a unique opportunity—a perfect time to sprint toward positive changes and finish the year strong.

    There is plenty of time to make this your best year yet. What can you do? What will you do?

    What could you do to make the life of someone around you better? Likewise, how can you let others know you’re thankful for them?

    To reference a book by Ben Hardy and Dan Sullivan, transformational change is often easier than incremental change (because you don’t have to drag the past forward).

    So, what can you do that would trigger 10X results?   More importantly … Will you do it?

    I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.  As you approach year’s end, remember you’re not just starting fresh – but integrating the “gold” from repaired experiences.

    Best wishes for a great day and an even better year!

  • The State of the American Dream: Average Income vs. Average Cost of Living Across The US

    Is the American Dream still within reach for the average American today? For many Millennialsand Gen Z, it feels farther out of reach than ever. 

    In the 20th century, the American Dream centered on owning a home, securing a good job, and maintaining financial stability. But does that dream still match today’s financial realities? Recent maps comparing state incomes and living costs reveal just how far many Americans are from achieving financial comfort.

    via visualcapitalist

    The average full-time salary for all adults as of Q2 2025 is approximately $62K. Predictably, that figure rises in higher-cost metropolitan areas and dips in rural regions, with Washington, D.C., standing out as a notable high point.

    However, income alone reveals little about the actual quality of life or whether someone can live ‘comfortably’. That’s why Visual Capitalist looked at how well individual needs are met across America using the classic 50/30/20 rule — allocating 50% of income to essentials,30% to discretionary spending, and 20% to saving or investing.

    via visualcapitalist

    In many states, single earners face a sizable gap between median pay and what’s needed for comfort. For families, the math becomes even more challenging.

    via visualcapitalist

    For more context, see:

    Clearly, being “middle class” doesn’t mean being “comfortable” in today’s economy. Households in the five most expensive states need nearly twice the average incomejust to meet basic comfort levels. Unsurprisingly, housing costs are a major part of this gap.

    It raises important questions: How have these disparities changed since the 1980s or ’90s? Have wage increases failed to keep up with the rising costs of essentials, even as technology and living standards have advanced?

    These charts also point to practical strategies. Decades ago, moving to a big city often meant earning higher wages and finding better opportunities. Today, for many workers, the opposite might be true: pursuing remote-friendly roles and relocating to more affordable areas can lead to a better standard of living. Likewise, developing skills in tech-related or future-proof fields can also give workers more leverage.

    Ultimately, the data emphasizes the growing significance of location, flexibility, and early career choices — while highlighting a larger challenge: ensuring that economic growth and productivity gains turn into real purchasing power.

    While innovation and economic growth have transformed our lives, they haven’t yet led to true financial security for the average American. To make the American Dream more accessible again, we need to address the widening gap between paychecks and the cost of living — even as our economy continues to expand. Recognizing this gap is the first step toward closing it.

    The challenge: how do we turn today’s progress into tomorrow’s prosperity?

    Onwards.

  • A Look at the American Dollar Compared to Global Currencies

    In 2025, the U.S. Dollar has experienced its biggest decline in over twenty years. A drop of more than 10% in a primary global currency is always significant — and this decrease is sending shockwaves through markets, policy discussions, and consumers’ budgets. But what’s truly driving this change, and what does it mean for you?

    While substantial, the Dollar’s decline is just one of several significant moves among major currencies. For a broader perspective, here is a chart highlighting key global currency trends this year.

    via voronoi

    The Brazilian Real is up 15.4% YTD, while the Swiss Franc, the Euro, and the Mexican Peso have each gained more than 10% this year.

    Nevertheless, the U.S. Dollar continues to assert its dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency, a status it has maintained since the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement. This means it is the main currency held by central banks to support international transactions and reduce exchange rate risk. Additionally, it remains the global benchmark against which other currencies are measured.

    So, why is the U.S. Dollar down, and why does it matter?

    View Full Image via visualcapitalist

    A strong currency benefits consumers by making imports more affordable and helping to keep inflation under control. A weaker currency, on the other hand, can be a tailwind for exporters by lowering the global price of their goods, but it also drives up import costs and can stoke inflationary pressures.

    The Dollar’s movement reflects not only U.S. conditions but also global ones. As the world’s reserve currency, it responds more directly to worldwide economic forces than most others. This year, soft U.S. GDP projections, high inflation, and the Fed’s shift toward lower interest rates have all contributed to downward pressure on the dollar. But that’s not the whole story. 

    Of course, no single factor explains the market. The Dollar’s decline isn’t a death knell, just as a surge wouldn’t be proof of perfect health. It’s one signal among many in a complex economic picture.

    When discussing negative indicators, it’s just as important to highlight the positive ones — including America’s historical resiliency. While headlines often focus on the dollar’s decline, history shows it has weathered many challenges and thus remains the world’s dominant reserve currency.

    For investors and consumers, the lesson is: stay informed, understand the broader economic context, and avoid overreacting to short-term swings. Currency markets move in cycles, and the dollar’s influence won’t disappear overnight.

    ‘Intentional patience’ often outperforms impulsive action, in trading and in business. By tracking market trends, understanding the underlying factors, and recognizing how currency shifts impact trade, prices, and investments, you can respond strategically rather than reactively to the news cycle.

  • The Current State of AI Chatbots

    Chatbots have come a long way from the quirky digital curiosities of the early 2000s (like AOL Instant Messenger’s SmarterChild) to the sophisticated AI chatbots and agents we see today. They’ve become essential tools in both business and daily life.

    These tools are having an increasingly global impact, answering customer service questions on retail sites, guiding patients through scheduling in healthcare, providing instant support in banking and insurance, and even acting as digital concierges for travel and hospitality. Inside companies, they streamline HR requests, provide IT troubleshooting, and deliver training. Beyond business, they power personal assistants on our phones, manage smart home devices, and help people learn new skills and appear more caring to those they care about. This widespread adoption reflects how quickly these tools have become part of our daily lives. 

    Chatbots have transformed how we interact with digital services, but their uptake varies significantly around the globe. What do current usage trends say about the future of this rapidly evolving technology? A recent chart from Visual Capitalist sheds light on “The 10 Most-Used AI Chatbots in 2025,” showcasing the swift adoption and dominance of major platforms.

    via visualcapitalist

    ChatGPT now averages over 5 billion monthly visits and accounts for nearly half of global chatbot traffic. 

    DeepSeek, Gemini, Peplexity, and Claudefollow relatively closely behind. 

    While Poe has experienced a significant decline in usage, Xai’s Grok, Meta, and Mistral are gaining steam. 

    It’s also interesting to look at which countries are adopting the technologies, and which ones remain the most resistant. This chart shows “How Often People Use ChatGPT.”

    via visualcapitalist

    Today, in the US, fewer than 20% of citizens report using chatbots daily. Meanwhile, India, Pakistan, and Kenya all poll at over 25%. 

    At the lower end of the spectrum, countries like Chile, Argentina, Germany, Italy, and Australia all report daily chatbot use by fewer than 10% of the population. Japan has the lowest rate, with just 6% of people saying they use chatbots daily, and a notable 42% saying they hardly ever interact with the technology. These differences are probably due to factors such as cultural attitudes toward technology and how people report their own habits.

    In contrast, “weekly usage” rates are notably more consistent across different countries, suggesting broader but less frequent interaction. 

    Just as search engines, social networks, and smartphones each converged on a few dominant players, the chatbot landscape is likely to consolidate, offering a clearer and more streamlined experience for users. 

    As chatbots advance, their impact will depend not just on technological advancements, but also on how well they build trust, integrate seamlessly, and adjust to different cultural norms. The question still stands: which platform will become the go-to digital companion?

    Let’s turn this into a conversation. I’m curious about your favorite AI platforms and reasons why.