Business

  • Setting Yourself Up For A Successful 2021

    We're about to usher in a new year – along with the promise and pressure of filling its blank slate.

    2020 is nearly over.  What a strange year it was!

    With 2021, we get a fresh start.  

    We look forward to what we will achieve – even though history says we rarely achieve everything we hope for.  Meanwhile, paradoxically, it is also true that we rarely achieve things we don’t hope for.  So, Hope!  It may not be a reliable strategy … but it beats the alternative.

    Personally, I’m excited about 2021.

    Despite the abnormal market and uncertain political climate, we're clearly moving toward increased stability compared to 2020.

    Even though I expect some volatility, we have become more accustomed to handling it (and we've become better at transforming its strategic byproducts into strategic benefits).

    On a different topic, think about how much progress we've made and how different the "new normal" has become.  For example, think about Zoom and remote work or how quickly our economy migrated online.  On many levels, what we are doing now seemed like science fiction even just a few years ago.

    We are living in an age of exponential technologies and exponential possibilities.

    I commissioned this image, from GapingVoid, to remind our team to keep shooting higher.

     

    How Can It Be Impossible If We're Already Doing It_GapingVoid

     

    Resilience, resourcefulness, and a worthy goal are the keys to many entrepreneurial success stories.

    In the spirit of New Year's Resolutions – I’ll add that a deliberate approach to goals is important too.

    I'm a big fan of picking a Big Hairy Audacious Goal (sometimes called a "BHAG") and taking actions that move you in that direction. 

    I'm also a big fan of Strategic Coach's Bigger Future exercise.  It is a 20-year planning exercise where you layout your commitments and goals to yourself, your family, your career, and your legacy. 

    While doing this, I realized that my ideal next 20 years involves taking Capitalogix to the next level (and beyond) through collaboration, cooperation, and joint ventures. 

    Once you know what your long-term goal is, it is relatively easy to plan out the steps you need to achieve that goal.  Achieving smaller goals reinforces success, builds momentum, and makes continued progress feel more likely.

    Extra points if you make them SMARTs (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-Sensitive). 

    Actions speak louder than words, and your words can distract you. 

    If your goal is to win first place at a competition, focus on the metrics of a first-place finish instead of the medal. This makes the goal concrete and sets an internal locus of control on your victory.  This also means that you don't need to tell others your goal too soon. Studies show that when you announce your intention to a goal in public, you decrease the likelihood of you succeeding. 

    It's okay to misstep, it's okay to get stuck – but recognize where you are, what you've done, and move forward. 

    Often the most frustrating thing that any of us feel on a regular basis is to want something really bad, and not be able to get it right away.

    The world makes that hard – media everywhere is peddling immediate gratification, but it results in higher rates of obesity, drug abuse, and depression. 

    Don't be fooled.  Overnight successes are rarely actually overnight successes.

    It's also important (once you've accomplished your goal) to set new goals. 

    Over the next 20 years, there are a ton of people I want to impact and a lot of goals I want to accomplish. Capitalogix is the way I intend to do that.

    It hasn't always been easy – but building Capitalogix has been an intensely rewarding passion.

    I look forward to you all being a part of it as well. Here's to a successful 2021 and an even more successful 2041.  

    Onwards!

  • Thinking About Thinking

    We're in the middle of annual planning – which I mentioned in my video on Chunking Higher. 

    Today, I want to focus on another aspect of getting better at planning and alignment … the idea of thinking about your thinking. 

    I shot a video that discusses several useful techniques to amplify decision making.

     

     

    One of the ideas is something called "Think, Feel, Know." Basically, it explains that you have to deal with superficial thoughts before getting to deeper feelings. Then, you have to deal with those feelings before you get to "knowing". 

    Another technique discussed in the video involves adding time to look for "insights" after working on something.  Those insights are often the seeds for something greater.

    Let me know what you think of the video … and I'd love to hear ways you try to amplify intelligence.

  • Processing A Bigger Future

    Whether you think you can or you think you can't. You're right. – Henry Ford

    Processing the possibilities of tomorrow is very difficult for humans.  Part of the problem is that we're wired to think locally and linearly. It's a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth … let alone its implications.  For example, consider what happened to seemingly smart and forward-looking companies like Kodak, Blockbuster Video, or RadioShack. 

    The world changes quickly.

    Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it, or not). 

    As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up … or the longer-term pain of being left behind.  Said a different way, you have to choose between chaos or nothing. 

    It is hard to keep up – and harder to stay ahead.

    Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie.  Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.

    Def5094d723b4c099755173bc6b580ad

    My company may not really do "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We use exponential technologies like high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning. 

    But, as we get "techier," I get less so … and my role gets less technical, over time, too.

    Because of my age, experience, and tendency to like pioneering … I've battled technology for decades. 

    Don't get me wrong, technology has always been my friend.  I still love it.  But my relationship with it is different now.

    I tend to focus on the bigger picture.  Also, I tend to appreciate technology on a more "intellectual" or "conceptual level" – but in a far less detailed way (and with much less expectation of using the technology, directly, myself).

    The Bigger Picture

    My father said, not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.

    You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress.  Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built.   That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting "how'. Why? Because technology doesn't often look for a problem; rather, it is the response to one.

    Here's a video from 1974 of Arthur C. Clarke making some very impressive guesses about the future of technology. 

     

    via Australia Broadcasting Corporation

    Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, and a host of exponential technologies are going to change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself).  Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities … but what they enable is virtually limitless.

    Where do see this going?

    We certainly live in exciting times.

    Onwards.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – December 13th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Do Candles Smell Worse?

    Covid-19 rates are still rising in many places, and there's an unexpected consequence …

    Candle companies are getting much more negative reviews. Angry people everywhere seem to be reporting that the candles have no smell!  With Covid, perhaps they need to check if they've lost their sense of smell or taste (and whether they have a mild fever). 

    Katie Petrova, on Twitter, did some research to check if there was really a correlation. 

    En2drsoXUAMNU6tvia Katie Petrova

    And the results were as expected. In 2020, consumer ratings for scented candles declined much more than unscented candles, and there are spikes in reviews mentioning lack of scent during months with increased cases. 

    Since the beginning of this year, the proportion of reviews mentioning lack of scent grew from < 2% in January to close to 6% in November.

    That being said, unscented candle reviews are lowering too … which makes you think about the confounding variables. Are sales simply increasing to the point where reviews (and thus negative reviews) are increasing? Is it a result of people being bored/frustrated at home?

    I'd be curious to see how much candle (or other home scent improving products) purchases increased during 2020.

  • Trends To Watch Due To The Pandemic

    The pandemic has affected many things beyond basic health. Increasingly, I see research showing meaningful increases in pornography consumption, suicide rates, and a host of other trends that are shaping our world today … but, in the longer-term, it is also affecting the face of tomorrow. 

    Flexible Workplaces

    In May, after only several months of lock-down, I was surprised how many businesses decided that they had no intention of ever requiring their employees to come back into the office. 

    As we close in on a year in the pandemic, I am surprised how easily we adapted to the new normal.  Even with a vaccine in sight, I suspect many of the adaptations will remain.

    Personally, I like going to the office.  Most days, I still do … even though a tiny fraction of our people are there.

    With that said, I know that our business matured.  We are better at the skills, tools, and mindsets that make remote work possible or profitable. We've gotten better at deciding what's a meeting (versus an e-mail or an online chat). People are working hours that are more comfortable for them, and we see meetings happen both earlier and later than they used to, before the quarantine. 

    As a macro trend, we also see a flight from urban centers.

     

    Migration-from-urban-areas

    via visualcapitalist

    I keep hearing about people moving far from their work-places.  Ultimately, they decided that remote work enables a new form of freedom for them – to live where they want, regardless of what they do (or who they do it for).

    Over time, I'm curious how a remote workforce will impact the quality and the amount of work done. 

    Adding to my initial concerns, flexible workspaces cause (or exacerbate) other issues, including cybersecurity, digital collaboration, defining the new workday, and a host of other challenges. 

    Digital Explosion

    I remember the early 2000s and the distress I felt watching how many time cycles my son "wasted" being on his phone (which to me, at that time, seemed like "all-the-time"). But, in retrospect, that was nothing. 

    Flash forward to 2019, and everything was even more "digital" and "smart."  Refrigerators, exercise bikes, billboards, and more all had screens, and 2-year-olds were already digitally literate. "All-the-time" took on a whole new meaning.

    Somehow, the pandemic still took our reliance on the digital world (or our augmented alternate reality) to the next level. 

     

    PAN Graph for HEALTH Survey

    via Alaska DHSS

    Kids are also getting less physical activity and human contact, and spending much more time online.  Contributing to this is the reality that much of their academics have been forced online.  Likewise, adults also are shifting more of their attention and activity cycles to the digital world.

    Continued screen-time increases coincide with video game revenue spiking and Internet traffic increasing by more than 50% worldwide. 

    As the world opens up, I still expect digital reliance numbers to stay above pre-COVID benchmarks. People's reliance on digital to feed their need for information, entertainment, and companionship is growing.

    Changing Business Landscape

    Starting with consumers, we've seen a massive movement toward frictionless and touchless payment. Even physical stores are prioritizing getting in and out without having to deal with another human. In addition, there's a massive move toward delivery services for groceries and meals. 

    On top of the changes to normal retail services, reliance on online shopping has increased, while the time it takes for electronic purchases to your door has decreased. Combined, these factors will terraform commerce.  Consequently, this year was likely an inflection point for e-commerce penetration … and, from that perspective, life will never be the same again.

     

    Ecommerce-forecastvia visual capitalist

    Despite the growth of online retail, many small businesses that couldn't move online are struggling, and many have already gone under. 

    Which leads to the next trend …

    Increasing Wealth Stratification

    While small business owners and front line workers have been struggling, billionaires saw their wealth increase by over half a trillion dollars. 

    Part of this is due to government aid toward large companies, part of it is due to tax laws, and part of it is due to the digital rise mentioned in the previous section. The big tech companies were already thriving, and the pandemic created a positive inflection point. 

    Despite those gains, the pandemic hit millennials and small businesses hard. 

     

    200928_millennial-covid-impact_fullwidthvia Morning Consult

    The longer the economy is affected by COVID-19 measures, the larger the wealth inequality will grow, and the more people you can expect looking for government assistance. The strong will thrive while others will suffer increasingly from learned helplessness.

    Obviously, the 2020 quarantine has created impacts in many other areas – including family stress, community isolation, political radicalization, etc. Moreover, these effects won't be isolated to this year – and we should expect many to impact our "new normal" for years to come.

    Some people consider this a challenge. I think it's the playing field. It's going to be true for everyone. What you make it mean, and what you choose to do, it is up to you.  Some will be like a cork, floating on the water, going where the tide takes it. Others will recognize the situation as an opportunity and thrive.

    The impact has been global, but the choices you make are local … and they are still your to make.

    Here is to making 2021 our best year yet!

    Onwards!

  • Chunking Higher

    We've been doing annual planning for 2021.

    The meetings are going well.  There is a lot of back-and-forth idea sharing, negotiating, and priority setting.

    Nonetheless, I had a sneaking suspicion that sometimes what seemed like a dialogue, was really multiple monologues. 

    The reason for the disconnect (or misconnect) was that the participants had fundamental beliefs, at a higher level than we were discussing, that were at odds with each other. 

    I shot this video to explain how to fix that issue.   

    The short answer is to chunk high enough that you truly start from a place of agreement.  Exploring distinctions from there is relatively easy.

     

     

     

    I'll add one more concept for good measure … Start with the end in mind. Alignment happens in stages.  Before you can truly get alignment on what to do next, you have to get agreement and alignment about where you are and where you want to go.

    With that said, another important component of meaningful communication is a shared understanding of common language.  Words can mean different things to different people.  Simply agreeing on a "word" is different than agreeing on a common meaning.

    To summarize these concepts:

    1. Make sure you have a common language
    2. Begin with the end in mind
    3. Start with the highest level of agreement
    4. Make distinctions from there

    Hope that helps.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – November 29th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • What Do We Care About?

    In a time of unrest, partisan politics, and situational anxiety … it is important to remember how much we share (as opposed to what separates us).

    VisualCapitalist put together a great graphic on the top 56 values that drive human behavior. For the top 15, it also shows you where they rank based on country. 

    1. Family
    2. Relationships
    3. Financial Security
    4. Belonging
    5. Community
    6. Personal Growth
    7. Loyalty
    8. Religion/Spirituality
    9. Employment Security
    10. Personal Responsibility
    11. Basic Needs
    12. Harmony
    13. Health/Well-Being
    14. Experiences
    15. Respect

    Each individual's ranking of the 56 (15 shown above)  may be different, nevertheless, this chart helps highlight what is really important to us all. 

    Click the image to see the full infographic. 

    ValueGraphics_v11v2via VisualCapitalist

    The ranking of the values changes across cultures and nations, but family emerged as the most important value consistently, and other "connectedness" values consistently ranked high. 

    Humans are emotional creatures (with the ability to think) rather than thinking beings (with the ability to feel).  Ultimately, we are social creatures in a social society. From a Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs standpoint, security often comes first, but connection comes right after that. 

    It's easy to focus on our differences, but it's more important to find the common ground. That's where discussion and progress happen. 

    Onwards!

     

  • Cybersecurity for Beginners

    In 2016, I received this e-mail from my oldest son.

    Date: Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 7:09 PM
    To: Howard Getson
    Subject: FYI: Security Stuff

    FYI – I just got an alert that my email address and my Gmail password were available to be purchased online.

    I only use that password for my email, and I have 2-factor enabled, so I'm fine. Though this is further proof that just about everything is hacked and available online.

    If you don't have two-factor enabled on your accounts, you really need to do it.

    Since then, security has only become a bigger issue. I wrote about the Equifax event, but there are countless examples of similar events (and yes, I mean countless). 

    When people think of hacking, they often think of a Distributed Denial Of Service (DDOS) attack or the media representation of people breaking into your system in a heist.

    In reality, the greatest weakness is people; it's you … the user.  It's the user that turns off automatic patch updating.  It's the user that uses thumb drives.  It's the user that reuses the same passwords.

    Password_strengthv2

     

    via xkcd

    Whether it's malicious or unintentional, humans are often the biggest security weakness. 

    As proof, watch the first few minutes of the video below to watch a social engineer find out this man's email and gain access to his cell phone account. She locks him out of his account at the same time.

    I started the video with the interesting part, so you don't have to search for it.

     

    via Real Future 

    As for passwords … I recommend not knowing them.  You can't disclose what you don't know.  Consequently, I recommend a password manager like LastPass or 1Password.

    Some other basic tips include: 

    • Keep all of your software up to date (to avoid extra vulnerabilities)
    • Don't use public wifi if you can help it (and use a VPN if you can't)
    • Have a firewall on your computer and a back-up of all your important data
    • Never share your personal information on an e-mail or a call that you did not initiate – if they legitimately need your information, you can call them back
    • Don't trust strangers on the internet (no, a Nigerian Prince does not want to send you money)

    How many cybersecurity measures you take comes down to two simple questions … First, how much pain and hassle are you willing to deal with to protect your data? And, second, how much pain is a hacker willing to go through to get to your data?

    It doesn't make sense to put all your data in a lockbox computer that never connects to a network … nevertheless, it might be worth it to go to that extreme for pieces of your data.

    Think about what the data is worth to you, or someone else, and protect it accordingly.