In the past, most profitable companies built or sold some sort of tangible product. The Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, land owners, etc.
Over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, the leaders are in tech, IP, and other intangible assets. Here is a chart showing the changing weight of tangible and intangible assets as part of the S&P 500’s total assets between 1975 and 2020.
By VisualCapitalist’s definition, intangible assets are holdings that don’t carry any physical or financial embodiment. This includes R&D, intellectual property, and computerized information such as data and software. Today, intangibles are worth over $21 trillion.
With technology becoming more ubiquitous, I think the trend will continue – which makes protecting your intangibles even more important.
Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors. Remember, however, that anything you get a patent on becomes public knowledge – so be careful with your trade secrets.
Last week, I shared an article about creating your annual plan (and how Capitalogix does it). This week, I want to talk more high-level about how we create a bigger future for ourselves, and next week I’ll talk about how I translate that bigger future into resolutions and actions.
The beginning of a new year is an excellent time for a fresh start. While it’s always the right time to take the right action, the structure of a year-end is a helpful crutch and force function.
We look forward to what we will achieve – even though history says we rarely achieve everything we hope for. Meanwhile, paradoxically, it is also true that we rarely achieve things we don’t hope for. So, Hope! It may not be a reliable strategy … but it beats the alternative.
I’m excited about 2023. Despite the abnormal market, the crazy headlines, and the still volatile political climate, we’re moving toward increased stability.
Even though I expect some volatility, we have become more accustomed to handling it (and we’ve become better at transforming its strategic byproducts into strategic benefits).
On a different topic, think about how much progress we’ve made and how different the “new normal” has become. For example, think about Zoom and remote work or how quickly our economy migrated online. On many levels, what we are doing now seemed like science fiction, even just a few years ago.
We are living in an age of exponential technologies and exponential possibilities.
I commissioned this image from GapingVoid, to remind our team to keep shooting higher.
Resilience, resourcefulness, and a worthy goal are the foundational keys to many entrepreneurial success stories.
In the spirit of New Year’s Resolutions – I’ll add that a deliberate approach to goals is important too.
I’m a big fan of picking a Big Hairy Audacious Goal (sometimes called a “BHAG”) and taking actions that move you in that direction.
I’m also a big fan of Strategic Coach’sBigger Future exercise. It is a 25-year planning exercise where you lay out your commitments and goals to yourself, your family, your career, and your legacy. One of the keys to this is chunking high enough to name the roles, goals, and strategies you select with timeless language (meaning that the target words hold up even as you pivot and adjust your focus and actions).
While doing this, I realized that my ideal next chunk of years involves taking Capitalogix to the next level (and beyond) through collaboration, cooperation, and joint ventures.
Once you know your long-term goal, it is relatively easy to plan the steps you need to achieve it. Achieving smaller goals reinforces successes, builds momentum, and makes continued progress feel more likely.
Extra points if you make them SMARTs (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-Bound).
Actions speak louder than words, and your words can distract you.
If your goal is to win first place at a competition, focus on the metrics of a first-place finish instead of the medal. This makes the goal concrete and sets an internal locus of control for your victory. This also means you don’t need to tell others about your goal too soon. Studies show that when you announce your intention to achieve a goal in public, you decrease the likelihood of succeeding.
It’s okay to misstep, and it’s okay to get stuck – but recognize where you are and what you’ve done … and move forward.
Delayed gratification happens when you want something badly, but are not able to get it right away. The result is often anger or frustration.
Meanwhile, the mainstream media broadcasts a seemingly non-stop stream of messages screaming for immediate attention and gratification. The result of that is not good either (for example, it can result in higher rates of obesity, drug abuse, and depression).
Don’t be fooled. Overnight successes are rarely actually overnight successes (for long).
It’s also important (once you’ve accomplished your goal) to set new goals.
Over the next 25 years, there are many people I want to impact – and many goals I want to accomplish.
It hasn’t always been easy – but building Capitalogix has been an intensely rewarding passion. It has been easier because I want what I want. Make sure you know what you really want … it makes getting it much easier.
I look forward to you all being a part of it as well. Here’s to a successful 2023 and an even more successful 2048.
There's a new trend of AI-generated profile pictures – using tools like avatar.ai.
Below are some sample results my son, Zach, got after downloading an iPhone app called Lensa. The company that makes it also offers a product called Prisma that is worth looking at as well. He paid $4 within Lensa to generate these AI photos (for context, avatar.ai charges more than 5x as much). He uploaded 17 photos from different angles (and with different expressions), and the app promised 50 pieces from 4 styles.
What do you think of the results? I thought some of them were surprisingly good.
Some were not so good … (or at least outside my zone of artistic preferences).
After seeing his, I'll admit I got curious and made my own.
To be honest, these apps are still volatile … meaning, sometimes they are good enough to seriously impress – but they also can underwhelm from time to time. Check out DALL-E for more examples of the dynamic range of possibilities and results.
Regardless, I am impressed with AI art's progress and momentum. Recently, generative AI has gotten a lot of hate (along with the hype), nonetheless, people are talking about it (meanwhile AI art is still not as polarizing as Kanye).
The reality is, most of these tools still are an elegant use of brute force. Nonetheless, I am bullish. Hardware and software are getting better … and when fed more data, generative art depictions get better as well.
The uses continue to get more elegant and complex as time passes … but we're still coding the elegance.
It is that time of year, again. We are in the midst of our annual planning for 2023.
The process is relatively straightforward. We start by deciding what the company's three highest priority goals are. With those goals as the base, each department (and manager) creates a big three that represents what they can do to reach the company's big three. From there we dive into quarterly rocks, SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, actionable, relevant, and timed), as well as the explicit tactical steps it will take to accomplish what we set out to achieve.
The meetings are going well. There is a lot of back-and-forth idea sharing, negotiating, and priority setting.
Nonetheless, I had a sneaking suspicion that sometimes what seemed like a dialogue, was really multiple monologues.
The reason for the disconnect (or misconnect) was that the participants had fundamental beliefs, at a higher level than we were discussing, that were at odds with each other.
I shot two videos that I think help teams get to alignment.
Thinking About Your Thinking
The first discusses several techniques to enhance your decision-making.
One of the ideas is something called "Think, Feel, Know." Basically, it explains that you have to deal with superficial thoughts before getting to deeper feelings. Then, you have to deal with those feelings before you get to "knowing".
Another technique discussed in the video involves adding time to look for "insights" after working on something. Those insights are often the seeds for something greater.
Chunking Higher
The second is on how to chunk high enough that you can start from a place of agreement. Exploring distinctions from there is relatively easy.
I'll add one more concept for good measure … Start with the end in mind. Alignment happens in stages. Before you can truly get alignment on what to do next, you have to get agreement and alignment about where you are and where you want to go.
With that said, another important component of meaningful communication is a shared understanding of a common language. Words can mean different things to different people. Simply agreeing on a "word" is different than agreeing on a common meaning.
This year, we continued our tradition of going to the Cowboys game – then having a big dinner together afterward.
I got to spend time with both my sons and my first grandchild (who didn’t seem to want her picture taken while there was so many other things to investigate).
Thanksgiving is a reminder to be grateful for the blessings in your life – big and small. But it's also a time to be thankful for the challenges in your life – and the opportunities for growth.
Often, when I think about what I want, the first thing I think of is what I don't want. Similarly, when I think about what's going well (or something worthy of being thankful for), I first think about what has been difficult or isn't above minimum standards yet. Some things change quickly. Apparently, human nature isn't one of them.
Challenges are often hidden gold mines. Instead of thinking about them being obstacles for you, recognize that getting past them creates an obstacle for competitors. In other words, figuring out a strategy to achieve these lofty goals creates a new status quo and a sustainable competitive advantage.
At Capitalogix, we often talk about "finding a way," "creating breakthroughs," and "setting new standards." The reason is that most things an innovator wants are just outside their current capabilities (otherwise, they'd already have them).
Dealing with this on a daily basis requires a resilient mindset and the ability to be comfortable with being uncomfortable.
Having no problems either means you're blind to your flaws or aren't playing a big enough game (which is a problem in itself).
So, I am thankful for my health, my family and friends, and the quality of my life. But, I am also thankful for the stress, the challenges, and the opportunity to face a continually better class of challenges that forge a path to a bigger future.
It purports that the US dollar will suck up liquidity from the other currencies, creating a chain of events that will drive the US dollar even higher. Unfortunately, this increases the risk of debt defaults. Eventually, the dollar ends up drinking the liquidity from the entire world economy.
Think about it. If you're getting negative yields on your two-year bonds from other countries, after a certain point you would sell those investments and switch to US two-year treasury bonds. It's a slippery slope from there.
We recently dove into what's happening at Twitter. Since that article, Elon wrote an ultimatum e-mail to his employees saying that if they wanted to stay, they would have to work harder and longer than before … and that they would get three months severance if they chose to leave. In a result that might have surprised Elon, thousands of Twitter employees quit. In response, Elon locked the doors, cut badge access, and attempted some damage control.
With that, it's probably a good time to take a look at the social media landscape. Here is an infographic that shows the relative popularity of various social media properties.
As we near the end of the year, I start to think about what I want for my future, and how far I’ve already come. It’s also a reminder that while I can extend my life – eventually, the clock stops.
Death is often a trigger that sends my thoughts spinning: celebrating life; mourning death; imagining what lies in store for the family; empathizing with the survivors … and even future-pacing to my death and memorial service.
In daily life, I often remind myself that ‘everything happens for a reason – and just because I can’t find the gift in a particular situation, doesn’t mean it isn’t there.
This is the anniversary of my Father’s death. When he died, I came out with a newfound respect for how precious life is. I decided it was time to stop thinking about what I do – and spend more time cultivating who I want to be. It also caused me to consider how I would be remembered – versus how I’d choose to be remembered.
Death is often a reminder to make the most of the time given to us.
It was a reflection on my struggle with juggling work-life balance. It was about a year that brought my Dad’s death, the forced sale of my company by venture capitalists, and a divorce (in that order). Luckily, sometimes, life’s darkest days bring the greatest gifts … if you are willing to look for them.
One of my biggest takeaways from that struggle was about the time value of life.
In finance, the “time value of money” refers to the principle that the purchasing power of money varies over time (meaning, money today has more purchasing power than money later). In part, this is because the value of money at a future point in time might be calculated by accounting for other variables (like interest earned, inflation accrued, etc.).
It occurred to me that a similar calculation applied to life … or living.
The above video is 13 minutes. Hopefully, you’ll watch … but if not, I’ve added some of my favorite excerpts below.
Live Like You Only Have a Year Left.
“During the last part of my Dad’s life, I think he would have done almost anything for a little more time.
Things that used to be unimportant, or even mildly irritating, took on increased importance. For example, a dinner together became almost a sacred event; a kiss goodnight was truly heartfelt, and saying goodbye meant something … because it could be the last time.
Nevertheless, as a result of that focus, he took more life out of that time.
Shouldn’t we do the same thing? Think about it: We will never be younger than we are right now. We are never going to have more time to fix a big mistake. Isn’t it likely that the time value of your life is worth maximizing?”
People Who Are Good Take Advantage of Opportunities. People Who Are Great Create Them.
“When I think back to that year, I spent so much time moving away from pain … that I forgot to move towards opportunity. I feel like I wasted so much time.
My Dad said the difference between good and great is infinitesimal. People who are good take advantage of opportunities … But people who are great create them.
I think what he meant was that when they see the opportunity, they move towards it. They shoot through it.
It is easy to say, “I see that opportunity; but it’s not the right time.” Or, “I see that opportunity, and I really want to remember it for when this is over.” And as much as I want to believe that’s true … deep down, I know that it’s always a good time to take the right action.
Instead, “life” (the noun) often gets in the way of “living” (the verb).
To Change Your Life, Change Your Perspective.
“When you are ‘stuck’… a shift in role, or a shift in perspective, is often all you need to see a new path forward or a new possibility.
Have you ever been stuck playing a role you knew didn’t serve you? Where you knew what the best next step was, from your perspective, but you had a sense that it wasn’t the right action? Sometimes it makes sense to step back and ask, ‘What role can I play that would get a better result?’”
That is often all it takes to change the game. Other times, what it takes is the decision to play a new game.
Everyone has the same 24 hours each day. Some use it better than others.
Sometimes we are conscious of how we use this precious resource. Sometimes it gets away from us.
The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.
How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?
What about time with your parents or older relatives? It’s easy to forget to call or to miss an important event because “life happens,” but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person … doesn’t it become more special?
In my TEDx talk, I mentioned “living like you only have a year left,” and how much more “life” we got out of the last part of my Dad’s life.
How do you replicate that?
To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, and experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self.
Hitting flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say – Wow!
Making a difference in someone’s day or giving back to your community;
Experiencing peace and relaxation;
Feeling pure joy.
It’s easy to get lost and take these moments for granted when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left, they take a whole new meaning.
What would it take for you to get the most out of your life today? How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.
To start, think about different time frames:
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?
Make those lists … it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.
Seriously, try it.
Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose.
Everyone knows that Elon Musk was sued by Twitter and 'forced' to buy Twitter for $44B. Since then, the now-private company has made a lot of confusing decisions.
To start, Musk publicly announced that the company was hemorrhaging money. To try and remedy this, he began by firing approximately half the employees. Key executives were fired. Later, many more executives left on their own. After the massive exodus, Elon supposedly reached out to some former employees asking them to come back. He also ended remote work for employees.
In an attempt to increase the company's profitability, he announced Twitter Blue, a paid subscription service that would give you a checkmark, and push your content to the top of users' feeds.
Unfortunately, users were quick to abuse the new verification system by pretending to be public figures and even public companies. As a result, there was real tangible damage to stock prices.
Do you think those are the most influential 8 dollars ever spent in history?
As a result of the turmoil, advertisers are leaving Twitter in droves, and Twitter has paused Twitter Blue in America – though it remains up in some different geographies.
On the surface, it looks like Twitter is being run into the ground. It seems like Musk is throwing a lot of darts at the board and seeing what sticks. He said as much when he promised that Twitter would do many dumb things as part of his strategy to innovate and find smart things to do.
Are the foibles simply the cost of the innovation needed to revitalize the company … or signs of trouble for Twitter's future?
Even though I'm prone to bet on Musk, I think it's too early to believe you can predict the outcome.
With markets making new lows and volatility shaking out investors in both directions, I thought this would be an excellent time to talk about coping with losses and managing your anxieties during "scary times." I last shared this at the apex of COVID fear … and it's just as relevant today.
The Anxiety Antidote
"When the trough gets smaller … the pigs get meaner." - Dan Sullivan
Many people are suffering from "I should have …", or "if I would have …", or "if I could have …" thoughts.
The problem is that thoughts like those create more stress and distraction. They are a lens focused on loss, difficulties, past events, things that are missing, and what you don't want.
Think of them as an unhealthy reflex that wastes energy, confidence, and time.
All We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself
I often talk about market psychology and human nature. The reason is that markets reflect the collective fear and greed of its participants… people tend to get paralyzed during scary times like these.
But it's not the economy that makes people feel paralyzed. People feel paralyzed because of their reactions and their beliefs about the economy. Your perceptions become your reality.
A little examination reveals that most fear is based on a "general" trigger rather than a "specific" trigger. In other words, people are afraid of all the things that could happen and are paralyzed by the sheer scope of possibilities. These things don't even have to be probabilities in order to scare them.
You gain a competitive advantage as soon as you recognize that it's not logical. Why? Because as soon as you distinguish that fear as not necessarily "true", you can refocus your insights and energy on moving forward. You can act instead of react. You make better decisions when you come from a place of calm instead of fear… so create that calm.
Even a challenging environment, like this, presents you with opportunities if you watch for them … or even better, if you create them.
The Scary Times Success Manual
The goal is to move forward and feel better. Strategic Coach offers ten strategies for transforming negativity and unpredictability into opportunities for growth, progress, and achievement. They call it the "Scary Times Success Manual," and what follows are some excerpts:
Forget about your difficulties; focus on your progress.
Because of some changes, things may not be as easy as they once were. New difficulties can either defeat you or reveal new strengths. Your body's muscles always get stronger from working against resistance. The same is true for the "muscles" in your mind, your spirit, and your character. Treat this whole period of challenge as a time when you can make your greatest progress as a human being.
Forget about events; focus on your responses.
When things are going well, many people think they are in control of events. That's why they feel so defeated and depressed when things turn bad. They think they've lost some fundamental ability. The most consistently successful people in the world know they can't control events – but continually work toward greater control over their creative responses to events. Any period when things are uncertain is an excellent time to focus all of your attention and energy on being creatively responsive to all of the unpredictable events that lie ahead.
Forget about what's missing; focus on what's available.
When things change for the worse, many desirable resources are inevitably missing – including information, knowledge, tools, systems, personnel, and capabilities. These deficiencies can paralyze many people, who believe they can't make decisions and take action. A strategic response is to take advantage of every resource that is immediately available in order to achieve as many small results and make as much daily progress as possible. Work with every resource and opportunity at hand, and your confidence will continually grow.
Forget about your complaints, focus on your gratitude.
When times get tough, everyone has to make a fundamental decision: to complain or to be grateful. In an environment where negative sentiment is rampant, the consequences of this decision are much greater. Complaining only attracts negative thoughts and people. Gratitude, on the other hand, creates the opportunity for the best thinking, actions, and results to emerge. Focus on everything that you are grateful for, communicate this, and open yourself each day to the best possible consequences.
The VIX (Cboe's Volatility Index) is regarded as the "Fear Index". While we saw spikes in early October, numbers are significantly lower than the spikes in 2020.
But, numbers have remained higher than pre-pandemic. To me, this shows how uncertain and anxious the average "trader" is with various global trends. We can discuss all the long or short-term causes of the rises and falls of markets, but I don't think it does much good. I let the algorithms worry about those.
I sound like a broken record, but volatility is the new normal.
Markets exist to trade, and if there's no "excitement" on either side, trades don't happen
Trades are getting faster, which means more information has to confuse both the buyer and the seller
You're no longer competing solely against companies and traders like you. It's like the cantina from Star Wars, you've got a bunch of different creatures (and bots) interacting and fighting with each other, trying to figure out how to make their way through the universe
Pair that with all the fear and uncertainty, and you've got a recipe for increased volatility and noise. That means that the dynamic range of a move will be wider and happen in shorter periods of time than ever before. You'll hear me echo this thought over the next few years as the ranges continue to expand and compress. Cycles that used to play out over weeks now take days or hours. The game is still the same, it just takes a slightly different set of skills to recognize where the risks and opportunities are.
There's a difference between investing and trading. On some level, I believe some humans can still invest well (assuming that they do the research, find an edge, and minimize the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that negatively impact results. However, for most people, believing that they can trade (personally) is dangerous. There are simply too many things to pay attention to – and the ratio of signal to noise is difficult to overcome as well.
The crucial distinction is between adding data and adding information. Adding more data does not equal adding more information. In fact, blindly adding data increases your chances of misinformation and spurious correlations.
Today's paradigm – both in life and in trading – is about noise reduction. It's about figuring out what moves the needle and focusing only on that.
Said a different way, if you don't know what your edge is, you don't have one.
Meanwhile, if you do know what your edge is (regardless of how scary the times are), keep calm and carry on.
