Business

  • Capitalogix Commentary 10/18/09

    Dow 10,000 – Version 2.0.

    SNL made a joke that hitting Dow 10K was different this time.  The difference was that 15 million unemployed Americans cheered while they watched CNBC on their couch in their pajamas.

     091019 Letting the Air Out of Hope

    The U.S. Equity Indices continue to perform well.  The economy, however, is sending mixed signals.  At this point, some would argue that any positive economic signal is a welcome signal.

    Mixed Signals: Two Charts Giving Us Different Views Into a Potential Economic Recovery.

    The first chart shows that unemployment is still growing faster than new job growth.  Recent readings show six unemployed people for each potential job opening.  A glance at the chart shows that ratio is usually 2:1 (rather than 6:1).  I'll be watching this indicator, and will take even a small improvement as a positive sign for the economy.

     091019 Number of Unemployed Per Job Opening

    Speaking of positive signs of economic recovery, the next chart does show a hopeful turn of events (based on increasing Capacity Utilization).

     091019 Capacity Utilization Up-Turn

    Utilization has increased for three straight months, and is up from the record low set in June (the series starts in 1967). Capacity Utilization had decreased in 17 of the previous 18 months.  An increase in capacity utilization is usually an indicator that a recession is over.  Let's hope it keeps up.

    When In An Up-Trend, Like This, Don't Fight the Fed.

    I was reading "A Dash of Insight" and saw this investment hypothesis: "The government is on a mission.  You may not like the policies, but as an investor, you fight it at your peril."  In other words, don't fight the Fed.

    Recently,
    that has been a painful lesson to Bears trying to short the rally.  The
    result, a dramatically declining short interest.  Here is a chart from
    Bespoke, illustrating that point.

     091019 Short Interest Declining

    At a certain point, the lack of sellers
    becomes the contrarian indicator that we are near a top.  Again, in
    trending markets, too much thinking is dangerous.  Just consider this
    another indicator to watch when the up-trend finally breaks.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Impacts of High-Frequency Trading – Manipulation, Distortion or Improvement? (Wharton)
    • Blue Chips Top 10,000 for the First Time in a Year. (WSJ)
    • Loose Monetary Policy: When Will Wall Street's Biggest Gravy Train Slow? (WSJ)
    • Goldman Sachs Sees a "Perfect Storm" for M&A. (StreetInsider)
    • Venture Capital Exits Dallas and Other Places Outside of Silicon Valley. (WSJ)
    • Pessimistic Commentators Remain Anything But Convinced by the Rally. (Economist)
    • Bloomberg Buys BusinessWeek From McGraw-Hill. (StreetInsider)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Mossberg Gives Windows 7 a Good Review. (WSJ)
    • White House Tells Fox Network News to Take a Hike. (Newser)
    • Patent Auctions Offer Protections to Inventors. (NYTimes)
    • Facebook Has a Happiness Index Drawn From Posts. (NYTimes)
    • Anthropologist: Modern Male Is 'Worst' Man Ever. (Newser)
    • Un-Tapped Potential: Autistic Savant Draws Cities from Memory. (Wiltshire)
    • Cool Chart of Apple's Path To 2 Billion iPhone App Downloads. (BusinessInsider)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
  • The Game Is Changing

    Mergers and Acquisitions are likely to increase before the next big bull run.  This chart shows that we aren't there yet.

     091011 Decline in Merger and Acquisition Activity

    We're at the point in the economic recovery cycle where a lot of companies have folded, or will soon fold. On the other hand, the survivors are starting to see the clearing … or at least the light at the end of the tunnel. Consequently, I expect to see more merger and acquisition activity at the next pull-back.

    This will help the strong get stronger … But it will also serve as a catalyst to new growth and new leaders.

    M&A Isn't the Only Way.

    This is a great environment to incubate what comes next. During downturns, some people lose their money, business, or hope. During that same period, other people recognize and seize the opportunity to create something great.

    There so much talent on the street right now looking for work … yet there is even more looking for something that inspires them.

    At the same time, technology continues to
    get better. And that just means it continues to get cheaper and easier to implement
    great ideas and scalable businesses.

    Consequently, I think a lot of talent is going to switch from the confines of
    corporate America to more entrepreneurial ventures. Bright minds will
    shed cost-cutting cultures and management-by-committee for virtual
    teams of talented individuals looking to innovate and operate more
    nimbly.

    Something Old is New Again.

    Sometimes new things come from familiar faces.  There are many
    successful entrepreneurs who have been to the brink, and back. What's
    interesting is that
    they tend to succeed faster, later in their
    careers. It makes sense if you think about it; losing money or facing a
    setback doesn't take away the other skills that they had … so their
    next venture is easier for them simply because they
    are more experienced and better seasoned.

    Nonetheless, I'm confident that we will soon see a new wave of
    the business leaders emerge. I'm curious who you think the likely winners will be?

  • How To Keep Track of the National Debt

    The Big Red Calculator.

    I've known Matt Miles for years; and he does what's necessary to make a point.  He is also a smart and successful entrepreneur.  The result, a new company called Big Red, that makes a calculator with enough digits to display the national debt.

    In his own words: "The Big Red Calculator, a 16-digit calculator, makes your old calculator extinct!  First we owed millions.  Then it was billions!   And now-thanks to those wonderful people who brought you deficit spending, we've shattered the trillion-dollar ceiling.  It truly is a proud moment.  But how can the average American keep track of such an incomprehensible number?  The answer is Big Red Calculator.  It is  "the official calculator of the national debt".  Endorsed by professional spenders! Ensuring that "no digit is left behind",  this calculator displays the largest collection of zeros ever assembled."  Yes, you can buy one at Amazon.

  • How To Keep Track of the National Debt

    The Big Red Calculator.

    I've known Matt Miles for years; and he does what's necessary to make a point.  He is also a smart and successful entrepreneur.  The result, a new company called Big Red, that makes a calculator with enough digits to display the national debt.

    In his own words: "The Big Red Calculator, a 16-digit calculator, makes your old calculator extinct!  First we owed millions.  Then it was billions!   And now-thanks to those wonderful people who brought you deficit spending, we've shattered the trillion-dollar ceiling.  It truly is a proud moment.  But how can the average American keep track of such an incomprehensible number?  The answer is Big Red Calculator.  It is  "the official calculator of the national debt".  Endorsed by professional spenders! Ensuring that "no digit is left behind",  this calculator displays the largest collection of zeros ever assembled."  Yes, you can buy one at Amazon.

  • Sometimes Simple Is Better

    This simple communication tool had a huge impact on our project management.

    I took for granted that our team was working towards the same vision, that we were aligned, and that we had a clear understanding of what constituted success.I was only partly right.  Here are some of the things we did to fix it.

    Perception Changes With Focus.

    The timeframe someone focuses on tells a lot about that person's level in a company. For example, people producing work tend to focus on what they're doing that day or week. Managers have a slightly longer timeframe, and may be looking at monthly production. Some executives are looking at the next year or two; while the CEO is often looking much further out than that.

    On a generic level, it is easy to think about the future. On the other hand, for someone working on the day-to-day operational details, it's much harder to figure-out how to go from where we are to even the very next step.

    Alignment Is a Key to Momentum and Progress.

    Aligning vision, strategy, and tactics is important to make sure that
    what we're doing now supports our ultimate goal and moves us in the
    right direction. Consequently, one of the goals of the planning exercise is to create a clear path so each person understands what they're doing, and how what they're doing up takes us closer to our ultimate goal.

    A Quick Look Backwards.

    One of the ways we have done this is to talk about some of the past iterations of technologies that we've gone through.  Doing this helps reinforce how much progress we've already made, as well as to recognize which things really marked the ending of one phase – or the beginning of another.

    Looking back, we identified seven major phases of technology. We agreed to call what we're currently doing version 7.0. We also agreed on which features and functions would constitute version 8.0. In other words, here is where we are … And here is where we want to be.

    A Clear Path Forwards.

    Then, we identified five stages to get from here to there. The first stage will take about one month, and we're calling it version 7.1. The key is that the team understands that 7.1 Is an important milestone on the path towards a bigger goal. However, it's specific, measurable, and actionable. Each person understands what they have to do, and what the project plan looks like to get from here to there.

    Accepting the Journey.

    We talked about why version 7.1 was an important step for us. We discussed what it will entail, and how we will know that it's complete. Then we had each person sign the sheet indicating that they agreed with and accepted these specifications.

    It sounds silly, but getting people to sign the sheet that documented a complete understanding of "who, what, when, where, and why" was important and freeing. It unlocked each person's unique abilities and gave them a clear path forward.

    Think about an area in your business or personal life that could use a little more transparency, clarity and unconditional agreement. Perhaps this simple tool can make it better?

    Hope that helps.

  • Sometimes Simple Is Better

    This simple communication tool had a huge impact on our project management.

    I took for granted that our team was working towards the same vision, that we were aligned, and that we had a clear understanding of what constituted success.I was only partly right.  Here are some of the things we did to fix it.

    Perception Changes With Focus.

    The timeframe someone focuses on tells a lot about that person's level in a company. For example, people producing work tend to focus on what they're doing that day or week. Managers have a slightly longer timeframe, and may be looking at monthly production. Some executives are looking at the next year or two; while the CEO is often looking much further out than that.

    On a generic level, it is easy to think about the future. On the other hand, for someone working on the day-to-day operational details, it's much harder to figure-out how to go from where we are to even the very next step.

    Alignment Is a Key to Momentum and Progress.

    Aligning vision, strategy, and tactics is important to make sure that
    what we're doing now supports our ultimate goal and moves us in the
    right direction. Consequently, one of the goals of the planning exercise is to create a clear path so each person understands what they're doing, and how what they're doing up takes us closer to our ultimate goal.

    A Quick Look Backwards.

    One of the ways we have done this is to talk about some of the past iterations of technologies that we've gone through.  Doing this helps reinforce how much progress we've already made, as well as to recognize which things really marked the ending of one phase – or the beginning of another.

    Looking back, we identified seven major phases of technology. We agreed to call what we're currently doing version 7.0. We also agreed on which features and functions would constitute version 8.0. In other words, here is where we are … And here is where we want to be.

    A Clear Path Forwards.

    Then, we identified five stages to get from here to there. The first stage will take about one month, and we're calling it version 7.1. The key is that the team understands that 7.1 Is an important milestone on the path towards a bigger goal. However, it's specific, measurable, and actionable. Each person understands what they have to do, and what the project plan looks like to get from here to there.

    Accepting the Journey.

    We talked about why version 7.1 was an important step for us. We discussed what it will entail, and how we will know that it's complete. Then we had each person sign the sheet indicating that they agreed with and accepted these specifications.

    It sounds silly, but getting people to sign the sheet that documented a complete understanding of "who, what, when, where, and why" was important and freeing. It unlocked each person's unique abilities and gave them a clear path forward.

    Think about an area in your business or personal life that could use a little more transparency, clarity and unconditional agreement. Perhaps this simple tool can make it better?

    Hope that helps.

  • The Marshmallow Test: What Kids Teach Us About Temptation

    Here is a brief video that reminds me that the difference between men and boys is often just the price of their toys.

    It's fun to watch these kids and the temptation of one marshmallow in the hand vs two marshmallows in the bush.  To eat, or not to eat?  … That is the question.

    Oh, The Temptation from Steve V on Vimeo.

  • The Marshmallow Test: What Kids Teach Us About Temptation

    Here is a brief video that reminds me that the difference between men and boys is often just the price of their toys.

    It's fun to watch these kids and the temptation of one marshmallow in the hand vs two marshmallows in the bush.  To eat, or not to eat?  … That is the question.

    Oh, The Temptation from Steve V on Vimeo.

  • Here are the iPhone Business Apps I Use Most

    This week I'm listing the iPhone business and productivity apps that I find worth using.
    Click here to explore last week's list of the fun stuff.

    At first I wanted to create a list of the coolest iPhone apps. However, cool doesn't necessarily mean useful. Instead, this is a list of the applications that I use most. I limited myself to the top two applications per category.

    For more information about these applications, click the links to go to the developer's site.  Even if you don't have an iPhone, check-out the links to see what is
    available.  I am amazed at how much of my computing and basic research
    are now done on my phone (as opposed to laptop or desktop computers).

    Stock Market Info

    090919 iPhone Apps

    Business News

    General News

    Reference

    To-Do Lists

    Calculators

    Conversions

    Ideas

    Travel

    That's it for now.  Let me know if I forgot your favorite or you found something worth sharing.

  • Here are the iPhone Business Apps I Use Most

    This week I'm listing the iPhone business and productivity apps that I find worth using.
    Click here to explore last week's list of the fun stuff.

    At first I wanted to create a list of the coolest iPhone apps. However, cool doesn't necessarily mean useful. Instead, this is a list of the applications that I use most. I limited myself to the top two applications per category.

    For more information about these applications, click the links to go to the developer's site.  Even if you don't have an iPhone, check-out the links to see what is
    available.  I am amazed at how much of my computing and basic research
    are now done on my phone (as opposed to laptop or desktop computers).

    Stock Market Info

    090919 iPhone Apps

    Business News

    General News

    Reference

    To-Do Lists

    Calculators

    Conversions

    Ideas

    Travel

    That's it for now.  Let me know if I forgot your favorite or you found something worth sharing.