Doing the same things, the same ways, has predictable results. Sometimes it is important to do things differently.
Here is a photo of me at the National Society of Black Engineers' Professional Development Conference, where I had the opportunity to present and participate in several panel discussions.
I'm neither black, nor an engineer, and they aren't traders; so why would they ask me to present… and why would I say yes?
Value is often added at the edges. Likewise, good things often happen when you travel outside your comfort or habit zone.
I gained a lot from the experience. For example, I had a discussion with the nuclear physicist who talked about how they use computer simulations to model the effects of a nuclear explosion. That gave me great ideas about how to measure the effect of a particular trading system or algorithm on a market.
Luck does favor the prepared. That conversation could just as easily have been me simply saying 'hello,' shaking hands, and moving on to the next person. To some extent, the ability to take advantage of opportunities comes from the intent to find them.
Is Luck Something That You Can Maximize, Or Would You Consider It Random?
It's possible that luck is both random and something you can maximize.
Here is an example. Many people consider the stock market to be random. Nonetheless, there
are groups of people who consistently beat the market and trade
profitably. How is that possible?
To explain, let's examine the
decision to purchase Apple Computer stock. Regardless of whether that
decision was based on gut instinct, fundamental analysis,
or a technical chart pattern … whether price moves up or down the
moment after that purchase is for the most part random.
However, if you
make 10,000 trades over time, then your ability to make and keep money is about how you manage risk and opportunity. At that point, your
system is not necessarily random. Consequently, it is something that you can
improve.
Transform Results By Getting Un-Stuck.
Improvement means getting better and different results. And, as you already know, it doesn't make sense to continue to do the same thing, yet to expect different results. So, a key skill is learning to recognize when things are "stuck" in rut.
The trouble with many "ruts" is that you don't know you're in one, while you're in one. Consequently, it often takes a different perspective to become aware of new possibilities, opportunities, or best next steps.
Implications.
The interesting thing that this implies is that those opportunities were always there … they just weren't there for you in your current state of awareness.
Similarly, recognize that many of the processes that we rely-on limit our "luck" or opportunities precisely because they limit our choices. When this is done consciously it can be helpful. However, when it's an unconscious act, it can be dangerous.
In general, you can categorize many tools as either being multipliers or diminishers. Neither one is good or bad in and of itself. The trick is to recognize that you have a choice, and that not choosing is still a choice.
The Euro Zone is safe; at least someone is propping up the euro.
The picture was taken last week in the financial center of Frankfurt, Germany. The handmade signs in the foreground are part of the Occupy Frankfurt movement, which is still active a year after it started.
This visit to Germany prompted some questions. While my observations are not scientific (nor statistically relevant) I'll share a
few of them with you anyway.
First, there seemed to be a pervading sense of
wariness and weariness. I heard many people express concerns about the economy
and the future. "Zeitgeist" is a German word that means spirit of the
times … and the spirit here seems somewhat dampened, despite a 24% gain in the German DAX Index this year.
Second, native
Germans are not having babies at the rate they used to. This would
typically result in an aging population. However, it seems to have
triggered a major influx of immigrants from other countries in the
region, like Turkey, but also from Pakistan, Afghanistan and other Muslim nations.
Third, while stereotypical, my sense is that the German national identity
was somewhat tied to "craftsmanship". But as their economy
manufactures less, it's as if the nation struggles to figure out what it
will become.
Fourth, while America may be a melting pot, historically Germany hasn't been. So, it isn't hard to imagine the cognitive dissonance felt by a Germans who don't know how to respond to a Germany that is becoming less "German".
As a result, this newly diverse population is struggling to
decide how to allocate resources.
I'm reminded of the warning flight
attendants give you on an airplane; if the oxygen masks are deployed,
make sure you use them yourself first, before trying to help someone
else, because it's tough to help somebody else if you're incapacitated.
By
many measures, Germany is the strongest nation in its region. However,
the burdens of a new economy and a new world order are hard to ignore.
It may pay to remember the saying: "Pigs get meaner as troughs get smaller."
Topping the list is Mansa Musa I, ruler of the Malian Empire until 1337. His net worth of $400 billion was amassed through his empire’s production of more than half of the world’s supply of gold and salt.
Many of the others on the list will be more familiar. Interesting.
I spoke on a panel at "A New Beginning – Entrepreneurship and Business Innovation" event this week.
It was sponsored by the US Department of State and EO.
Several dozen countries sent entrepreneurs to attend the session. It was lively and fun.
In this picture, I am with fellow panelists, Stewart Youngblood from TechWildcatters, Tricia Bridges from Ciapas, and Greg Moore from Blackhill.
Great to see so many countries sending entrepreneurs to the United States to participate in programs like this.
The
World's First Vegetarian McDonald's. To capture more of India's $12 billion
fast-food market, the burger chain will jettison meat entirely in favor of the
McAloo Tikki burger and the McSpicy Paneer. (The Week)
