Student loans may be a liability on the consumer balance sheet, but they constitute an asset for Uncle Sam. Just how big? Nearly 35% of the total federal assets, over four times the 8.6% percent for the total mortgages outstanding.
The nation's total student debt load is growing at a terrifying $2,853 per second.
Creating the illusion of economic growth is easy if you can print money. It’s a prank you can play on an entire country. Cut the value of the currency in half and the economy’s size will appear to double. If it doesn’t, you’re in recession (whether you know it or not).
Cavemen probably understood this concept better than America’s best economic minds.
The only way to accurately measure changes in a nation’s economy is to do so relative to the world. According to the World Bank, the U.S. represented 31.8% of the world’s economic activity in 2001. By the end of 2011, that share had dropped to 21.6%, meaning America’s slice of the world economy is 32% smaller than it was a decade ago, and getting smaller every day. Note that America’s housing bubble did nothing to boost the U.S. on the global stage.
As horrific as these results are, they’re better than Japan’s, whose “lost decade” proved only to be prologue for its “lost-er decade.” Japan’s share of the world economy fell more than 35% from 2001 to 2011 (literally worse than Zimbabwe) and has now shriveled 54% from its peak. But Japan’s real collapse did not coincide with the bursting of its stock and real estate bubbles in 1990 and 1991 respectively. The decline actually began in 1995 when policymakers allowed government debt to exceed 90% of GDP (a milestone the U.S. quietly passed in 2010).
As you'd expect in a Colbert segment, there is lot's of 'truthiness' mixed in with the humor.
For example:
Some say all this computer trading is dangerous, but I say it's actually safer. Because if the stock market ever crashes again, instead of brokers jumping out of windows in a panic they'll simply turn on their computer and see the soothing message, 'error 404, economy not found.' What's the worst that could happen?
There
we were at the Cowboys game. It was a beautiful day. I was feeling
terrific because I was with my two sons. The crowd was cheering … and I
had a great thought: 'Let's get a picture of this'.
Perfect … a random series of events had led to a satisfying crescendo … and I captured the moment.
It wasn't so random. Despite a difference of four years and two stadiums – the result was similar (if not predictable).
History doesn't necessarily repeat itself. But it often rhymes.
It Is True In Trading As Well.
The Hype Curve is an interesting map of human emotion. Below is an idealized version.
Here is a chart of Apple going back to 2004. Note the similarities.
Classic economic theory dissects the economic cycle into four distinct stages: expansion, trough, decline and recovery. A stock is no different, and proceeds through the following cycle:
Stage 1 – After a period of decline a stock consolidates at a contracted price range as buyers step into the market and fight for control over the exhausted sellers. Price action is neutral as sellers exit their positions and buyers begin to accumulate the stock.
Stage 2 – Upon gaining control of price movement, buyers overwhelm sellers and a stock enters a period of higher highs and higher lows. A bull market begins and the path of least resistance is higher. Traders should aggressively trade the long side, taking advantage of any pullback or dips in the stock's price.
Stage 3 – After a prolonged increase in share price the buyers now become exhausted and the sellers again move in. This period of consolidation and distribution produces neutral price action and precedes a decline in the stock's price.
Stage 4 – When the lows of Stage 3 are breached a stock enters a decline as sellers overwhelm buyers. A pattern of lower highs and lower lows emerges as a stock enters into a bear market. A well-positioned trader would be aggressively trading the short side and taking advantage of the often quick declines in the stock's price. More times than not all of stage 2 gains are given back in a short period of time.
While these stages are historically defined over long time periods they actually exists in all time frames, allowing traders to take advantage of a cycle regardless of their trading time frame. Fortunately this phenomenon, known as a "fractal", exists within all security markets. A fractal is simply a rough geometric shape that can be subdivided into smaller parts that have the same properties; a smaller version of the whole.
This is important to understand because through technical analysis as we are often analyzing multiple time frames. In the short term, the four stage model may repeat itself many times. The combination of these short term cycles form a medium term cycle, and the combination of multiple medium term cycles form a long term cycle.
You know the economy is tough when a company like Hostess
Brands, the maker Twinkies and Wonder Bread, announces plans to close its plants and fire 18,000 employees as it moves to
liquidate.
Doing the same things, the same ways, has predictable results. Sometimes it is important to do things differently.
Here is a photo of me at the National Society of Black Engineers' Professional Development Conference, where I had the opportunity to present and participate in several panel discussions.
I'm neither black, nor an engineer, and they aren't traders; so why would they ask me to present… and why would I say yes?
Value is often added at the edges. Likewise, good things often happen when you travel outside your comfort or habit zone.
I gained a lot from the experience. For example, I had a discussion with the nuclear physicist who talked about how they use computer simulations to model the effects of a nuclear explosion. That gave me great ideas about how to measure the effect of a particular trading system or algorithm on a market.
Luck does favor the prepared. That conversation could just as easily have been me simply saying 'hello,' shaking hands, and moving on to the next person. To some extent, the ability to take advantage of opportunities comes from the intent to find them.
Is Luck Something That You Can Maximize, Or Would You Consider It Random?
It's possible that luck is both random and something you can maximize.
Here is an example. Many people consider the stock market to be random. Nonetheless, there
are groups of people who consistently beat the market and trade
profitably. How is that possible?
To explain, let's examine the
decision to purchase Apple Computer stock. Regardless of whether that
decision was based on gut instinct, fundamental analysis,
or a technical chart pattern … whether price moves up or down the
moment after that purchase is for the most part random.
However, if you
make 10,000 trades over time, then your ability to make and keep money is about how you manage risk and opportunity. At that point, your
system is not necessarily random. Consequently, it is something that you can
improve.
Transform Results By Getting Un-Stuck.
Improvement means getting better and different results. And, as you already know, it doesn't make sense to continue to do the same thing, yet to expect different results. So, a key skill is learning to recognize when things are "stuck" in rut.
The trouble with many "ruts" is that you don't know you're in one, while you're in one. Consequently, it often takes a different perspective to become aware of new possibilities, opportunities, or best next steps.
Implications.
The interesting thing that this implies is that those opportunities were always there … they just weren't there for you in your current state of awareness.
Similarly, recognize that many of the processes that we rely-on limit our "luck" or opportunities precisely because they limit our choices. When this is done consciously it can be helpful. However, when it's an unconscious act, it can be dangerous.
In general, you can categorize many tools as either being multipliers or diminishers. Neither one is good or bad in and of itself. The trick is to recognize that you have a choice, and that not choosing is still a choice.
