Neuralink received approval for human trials of its PRIME Brain-Computer Interface in September 2023.
In January, Elon took to Twitter and announced that the first human recipient had received an implant and was showing promising neuron spike detection.
Neuralink designed PRIME to record and transmit neural data to interpret brain activity into movement intention. The PRIME Brain-Computer Interface empowers disabled individuals by enabling them to communicate and engage with the world in innovative and impactful ways, such as regaining the ability to speak and interact with others. In the future, advancements in the PRIME Brain-Computer Interface could even assist individuals with spinal cord injuries learn to walk again.
The first patient was 29-year-old Noland Arbaugh, a complete quadriplegic who had lost sensation and suffered paralysis from below the shoulders after sustaining a spinal injury during a diving accident eight years ago.
When we first began receiving updates about him, we were excited to hear that he could use a computer cursor. That was a big step ... and the start of many others. Now, we're being told that he recently used the technology to stay up all night playing a video game called Civilization 6.
— Neuralink (@neuralink) March 20, 2024
Similarly, in 2022, a completely paralyzed man used his brand-new brain implant to ask his caregivers for a beer.
It sounds like a joke, but these are the types of stories that make me optimistic. Both examples highlight a new capability ... but also a deeper purpose, freeing the human to enjoy being human and enhance the quality of their life.
This is a great reminder. Media coverage often focuses on the fear of an increasingly tech-driven world, and what it means for humanity ... but the best uses of technology allow us to be more human.
What used to be science fiction is becoming reality, and possibilities are becoming inevitabilities.
Onwards!
March Is Always Madness ...
March Madness is in full swing and will have the world's attention for a few more days. As you can guess, almost no one has a perfect bracket anymore. Yale beat Auburn, James Madison beat Wisconsin, Michigan State beat Mississippi State, and by the end of day 1, only 2,000 brackets remained intact. That's .008% of all brackets submitted.
Before 24/7 sports channels, people watched the weekly show "The Wide World of Sports." Its opening theme promised "The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat!" and "The human drama of athletic competition." That defines March Madness.
The holy grail is mighty elusive in March Madness (as in most things). For example, the odds of getting the perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (2.4 trillion based on a Duke Mathematician's formula that takes into account rank). It's easier to win back-to-back lotteries than picking a perfect bracket. Nonetheless, I bet you felt pretty good when you filled out your bracket.
via Duke University
Here's some more crazy March Madness Stats:
Feeding the Madness
In 2017, I highlighted three people who were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness: a 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world. None of them had the same success even a year later.
Finding an edge is hard - Maintaining an edge is even harder.
That's not to say there aren't edges to be found.
Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some people use gut feelings, some base their decisions on current and historical performance, and some use predictive models. You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision. That makes you feel powerful. But knowing the history, their ranks, etc., can help make an educated guess, and they can also lead you astray.
The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading. As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't. We want the bragging rights of that sleeper pick, of our alma mater winning, of the big upset.
You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or musical-loving co-worker.
In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses.
The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased. Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear-cut answer. We don't know who will win or what makes a perfect prediction.
Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint. People make decisions based on many factors — sometimes irrational ones — which can create inefficiencies and complexities. It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them, but they're there to be found.
In trading, AI and advanced math help remove biases and identify inefficiencies humans miss.
Can machine learning also help in March Madness?
The data is there. Over 100,000 NCAA regular-season games were played over the last 25+ years, and we generally have plenty of statistics about the teams for each season. There are plenty of questions to be asked about that data that may add an extra edge.
That being said, people have tried before with mediocre success. It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports - hustle, the crowd, momentum - and it's hard to overcome 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds.
Two lessons can be learned from this:
Something to think about.
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