Capitalogix

The New Era of Energy

A couple of weeks ago, I talked about oil production.  This week, I want to look at the current energy landscape. 

 

View the full infographic at visualcapitalist

Over the past several decades, there has been a massive shift in how we produce and consume energy.  This has been driven by the tech boom - as well as by climate awareness.

The practical realities of widespread tech adoption directly impact energy consumption.  For example, there are now over 7 billion people with smartphones.  As the population (and the number of gadgets and tech we use) grows, logically, so does our energy consumption.

Luckily, we're also getting better at powering them. 

On a different front, oil is still a meaningful and vital part of the energy ecosystem … but, now, it's being supplemented by multiple renewables. 

View the full infographic at visualcapitalist 

Over the last decade, investment in green technologies has helped the cost of renewable energies drop precipitously. 

That spurred a different set of products and use cases.  For example, we've seen the number of electric cars grow exponentially.  In 2011, there were approximately 70,000 EV units in the world.  Now there are around 16.5 million. 

This isn't a commentary on the environmental benefit of renewables; it is an observation about the direction energy is heading. 

And, just like with AI, despite being a space that's existed for a long time, it is still in the "early adoption" phase. 

Based on estimations, the IEA projects an 8x growth in EV by 2050.  This also means that we will use an increasing amount of batteries and rare metals.  Currently, China controls the supply chains and critical resource constraints. 

If our goal is to be energy independent, we have a long way to go ... Nonetheless, recognize that this creates massive business and investment opportunities. 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 28th, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• McKinsey Report: Two AI Trends Top 2022 Outlook.(VentureBeat)
• The Sixth Love Language Does Not Exist. (NYT)
• This is When Thinking Through Stressful Situations Can Be Productive. (FastCompany)
• Why and How Do We Dream? (Quanta Magazine)
• 'No Other Material Behaves in this Way': Scientist Identify a Compound With a Memory. (ScienceAlert)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Top Central Bankers Deliver Hawkish Message at Jackson Hole. (Bloomberg)
• The Fed Should Go On Vacation After this Year's Rate Hikes To Avoid the Risk of Overdoing Its Tightening Efforts, BlackRock Says. (Markets)
• It's OK To Gamble' On Speculative Meme Stocks, Jeremy Siegel Says: If You're Into Gambling and You Like That, Fine, Go To It'. (Fortune)
• How Much $1,000 Invested In Apple, Amazon, Bitcoin, Gold After Friday's Plunge Would Be Worth Upon Return To All-Time Highs. (Benzinga)
• Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Just Predicted Another 20% to 25% Drop for the Markets — Here’s What the Asset Manager Still Holds for Shockproofing (Moneywise)

 

 

A Reminder That People Can Be Good

The world seems pretty divided. 

Sometimes it feels like portraying people who think differently as "evil" has become a default strategy.  Frankly, it's exhausting.

As a break from that, here's a story of someone doing what most wouldn't. 

Mohamed Bzeek is a Libyan immigrant living in Los Angeles.  He's taken on a unique life mission.  He fosters terminally ill kids – so they don't have to die alone in hospitals.  He's been doing it for over 25 years (and he has fostered over 80 kids so far). 

 

via PBS Newshour

 

Over $800,000 has been raised via a GoFundMe campaign.  If you'd like to donate, you can do so here. 

Happy people find ways to be happy.  Generous people find ways to be generous.  Frustrated people find ways to be frustrated.

What do you find ways to do most often?

Some Cool "Futuristic" Tech You Might Not Have Seen

I joke that I have a "tense" problem. I spend a lot of my time thinking about what will be possible in the future. And once I know something is possible, in my head, it has already happened.

It isn’t a reality distortion engine … it is a reality creation engine.

For me, this is centered around the way technology is transforming the world and how it affects my business. 

Sometimes it's nice to take a step back and look at all the "quality of life" improvements. The gadgets that make you say "Wow!" … even though they may not benefit you directly. 

So, here are a few that caught my eye over the last few weeks. 

Augmented Reality Running 

In 2020, Ghost Pacer put together a pair of AR glasses that would give you a virtual running partner. The app would analyze the running route and the wearer's desired goals and set them up against a virtual runner who would push them to their limits. 

Last year, SNAP and Nike teamed up to create a new AR running experience as well. 

 

Spectacles via YouTube

This is a great way to get moving for those (like my wife) who benefit from a structure around their exercise. 

Magnetic Slime Robot for Healthcare

 

New Scientist via YouTube

Watching the video of this slime is somewhat uncanny. Its movements feel almost lifelike. That being said, the potential for this custard-like slime worm is massive. It can navigate narrow passageways, grasp objects, and more. There are already plans to use this to remove foreign objects from people.  

Functioning Hoverboards 

 

RIDE via YouTube

Multiple generations of kids have dreamed of hoverboards after watching Back To The Future. While it's not in homes yet, it is now a reality as seen in this video with Tony Hawk riding one. Unfortunately, since breaking into the scene in 2015 with a successful Kickstarter, I have not seen much from Hendo Hoverboard. 

Thankfully, they're not the only company in the space anymore. If you're willing to drop almost 15K, you can own a working hoverboard from Arcaboard. 

I remember when we used to go outside to play or exercise.

We live in interesting times!  

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 21st, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Elon Musk Accidentally Reveals His Address. (TheStreet)
• 10 Years On, a Spin-Off Use for CRISPR: Infectious Disease Testing. (BigThink)
• After 20 Years, What's the Most 'Shazamed' Song of All Time? (Cult of Mac)
• How Frustration Over Tiktok Has Mounted in Washington. (NYT)
• Apple Tells Employees to Work at the Office Three Times Per Week Starting in September. (CNBC)

 

Trading Links:

• Streaming Tops Cable-TV Viewing for the First Time.(Wall Street Journal)
• Over 13% of Singaporeans Will Be Millionaires by 2030 Compared to 8% in the U.S. (Fortune)
• As the Indian Economy Triples in Size in the Next 15 Years, Bet on these Sectors. (MoneyControl)
• Alphabet is the World's Top Blockchain-Friendly Investor Pumping $1.5 Billion Into the Sector. (FinBold)
• US Federal Reserve Minutes Show More Rate Hikes Coming, Concern About Stablecoin Risks. (CoinDesk)

 

 

Where Are Children Being Born?

Everyone knows that children are our future. They're the next generation of innovators, entrepreneurs, and workers. Countries that are having a natural decrease in population due to families not having children will likely find themselves becoming less important on the geopolitical stage.

While the future is often hard to predict, here is easy “prediction” (that is much less of a prediction than it is simple math). In order to predict how many 18-year-olds there will be in a particular country in fifteen years, simply count the 3-year-olds there now.  Yes, there will be some death or migration … but it is an easy way to get a sense of some important mega-trends.

With that said, the U.S. saw many states with more deaths than births in 2020 and 2021. 

So, where are children being born?

India, China, and Africa all are seeing massive population growth. America is still net positive. It's also worth noting that India and China are topping the list because they already have such large populations. Their birth rates are actually slightly below average. 

On a longer term scale, it's also worth noting that population growth has been declining since the 1960s. Partly due to education, wealth, and the move from rural to urban living. 

Slowing population growth means a larger portion of the population is older. As median age increases, there are lots of potential economic consequences.

It's an interesting compounding of consequences. 

We'll see if the countries with the largest population growth have the economy and infrastructure to support that growth. 

Oil Production By Country in 2021

You could argue that we're in the middle of the first energy crisis of the 21st century.

While gas prices are finally on the way back down, the recent surge is driving inflation and has consumers thinking much more about where their oil comes from. 

When I last wrote about oil production, the shocking "secret" was that the largest importer of oil into the U.S. was Canada - and that most of our oil was produced within the U.S. 

via visualcapitalist

While the U.S. is the largest producer of Oil, OPEC is the largest organization. OPEC accounts for 35% of total production, with Saudi Arabia accounting for a third of OPEC's output. 

Almost half of the world's oil production comes from The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia. 

Also, despite being the world's largest oil producer, the U.S. is still a net importer of oil. 

Supply constraints on oil - as a result of sanctions on Russia - are creating a price increase with skyrocketing demand from mid-pandemic levels. Combine that with OPEC refusing to increase production to meet demand, and you have an energy shortage. 

The U.S. has already started releasing barrels from its strategic reserves, and we've seen gas prices go down as a result, but it remains to be seen if our efforts will be enough to curb the shortage. 

What else do you think we should be doing?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 14th, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Cognitive Biases and Brain Biology Help Explain Why Facts Don't Change Minds.(NeuroScienceNews)
• At Least 300 TikTok Employees Previously Worked for Chinese State-Aligned Media: Report.(FoxBusiness)
• 4 Essential Reads About the (Sometimes Scary) Future of AI.(FastCompany)
• 5 Myths About Resilience You Need to Stop Believing So You Can Cultivate True Grit. (FC)
• Cowboys-Ex Deion Sanders Rips Hall of Fame: 'I Need a Different Jacket'. (SportsIllustrated)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• 3 Companies that Could Be Worth $1 Trillion by 2032.(MotleyFool)
• Why Amazon Paid $1.7 Billion For a Roomba. (Wall Street Journal)
• How Much Money Would You Need To Live Your Ideal Life?(Quartz)
• Most Airlines Are Now Much Smaller Than They Were Before the Pandemic. See the 20 Biggest Airlines In the World Ranked By Available Seats. (Insider)
• A Bad Week For Stationary Bikes: A Look Inside the Downfall of SoulCycle and Peloton After the Former Fitness Giants Slashed Hundreds of Jobs and Closed Stores On the Same Day. (Insider)

 

 

Taylor Swift's Carbon Footprint?

I'm writing this from International Falls, MN (someplace I never thought I'd be ... ).  Meanwhile, one of the only less likely things, I can think of, is the article's topic.

Taylor Swift is known for being vocal about climate issues.  She was also just 'outed' for the 170 flights her private jet took last year.  The news came out after another celebrity was chastised for a 20-minute private jet flight.  Taylor claims that most of those flights weren't hers – and that she rents the plane out.  Knowing other people with private jets, that's believable. 

There are obviously bigger problems in the world today.  Nonetheless, I'm sharing this info anyways because the chart comparing her carbon footprint to the average person's caught my eye. 

via Reddit

I wonder how that would compare to the carbon footprint of non-celebrity private jet owners or manufacturers. 

 

US Spending in 2021

In a prior post, we looked at the Global GDP in 2021. Now, let's look at US Revenue vs. Expenditures in 2021. 

 

So, from the start, we can see a 2,770-billion-dollar deficit last year. The #1 expenditure was income security. For those who don't know, income security is an extremely broad spending category. It covers everything from tax credits and unemployment to housing assistance, foster care, and many other welfare programs. It's somewhat of a catch-all for services that help people get necessities. 

Surprisingly, the US pays more per person for healthcare than countries with nationalized healthcare. 

Looking at 2021 isn't the best indicator of America's spending history as a whole; there were a lot of one-time events - and a pandemic. Usually, the deficit isn't that staggering. 

via Congressional Budget Office

While the deficit may grow out of control, debt is a powerful tool - not just a liability.  Nonetheless, given our current economic situation, inflation, and rising interest rates, the strategy that got us here might not be the best strategy to get us where we want to go.

What are your thoughts?