December 2021

  • Getting Ready For The New Year

    I love planning for the new year – both personally and professionally. 

    I've always been a big picture person – so I tend to think in 5, 10, 25-year increments … but thinking about the coming year is helpful too.

    I think about it a bit like using a map.  Even if you know your intended destination, you still have to start with 'where you are' in order to figure out the best way to get there.

    There are seemingly infinite potential paths … but motion in a direction isn't really "progress" if it doesn't take you towards your desired destination.

    As we reach the final week of 2021, I thought I'd revisit how I set New Year's resolutions. 

     

    Future

     

    To start with, resolutions only work if you actually "want" to make them happen. It's one thing to hope that something magically falls in your lap; it's another to want to put in the work. 

    With that being said, here are some tips. 

    • Focus on What You Want.
    • Focus on Why You Want It.
    • Focus on Ways You Might Get it.
    • Focus on Evidence of Progress.

    Below, I'll take you through an example of each of the four steps.

    Moving Towards a Solution, Rather Than Suffering From the Problem.

    Before I got back into my health, my first instinct was to think, "I need to lose weight."  Knowing that "you're fat" isn't helpful … my head quickly translates that to something a tad more positive, yet generic, like: "I choose to be healthy and vital, and to live a healthy lifestyle."

    Blah, blah … They are just words.  What I needed was something specific, measurable, and actionable.  How about: "I will lose 15 pounds and stop eating after dinner."  OK, but that isn't inspiring, and there isn't much for me to do. I can do better than that.

    Figure-Out a Big Enough WHY, Rather Than Worrying about the HOW's.

    This post isn't about health and fitness; it is about the mindset and techniques you can use to set empowering goals and plans in any situation.

    So, while I could list many ways to lose weight (and I might even remember to do some of them), leveraging a driving force creates momentum.  In other words, the first step in "Doing" is knowing WHY you want something.

    I really do want to be healthy, fit, and vital (it sure beats the alternatives), and I want to have the energy and confidence to live and enjoy my life fully.  The world is my playground, and I want to take advantage of more opportunities to play with family and friends.  However, to do those things, I must find better ways to live a healthy lifestyle.

    The WHYs are just as important for business goals too.

    Focus on Potential Solutions, Rather than Problems or Challenges.

    Obstacles Exist. The bad news: I don't eat fish, and I don't like vegetables (unless French Fries are vegetables).  My joints aren't close to healthy from years of violent contact sports. I rarely get 7 hours of sleep, and who'd have thunk it, but being a CEO of a startup is stressful.  The good news: is none of those things matter; and even if they did, it just would mean that I have a lot of room for progress.

    It is natural to focus on obstacles. But most obstacles are surmountable – with a big enough WHY, even I'll start to eat vegetables. Instead of dwelling on the limitations, use them as a reminder to focus on potential solutions instead. They are beacons, pointing the way.

    How do you do it?  To focus on solutions, you can make two action-based lists: one is of things To-Do … and another is of things Not-To-Do.

    Here are some of the sample To-Do Items:

    • I will drink more water than coffee.
    • I will stretch, or do basic calisthenics, on days that I do not go to the gym.
    • I will make a healthy shake as a meal replacement rather than a snack of min-meal.
    • I will focus on relaxation and meditation as much as I focus on strength & physical exercises.

    Here is the actionable list of Not-To-Do Items.

    • I will not buy new bigger pants or wear stretchy pants because of an expanding waistline.
    • I will not eat snacks out of their container – and will portion out what I want first.
    • I will not compare my current level of fitness to what I used to be able to do. Instead, I will focus on my actions and improvement.

    Create Healthier Habits.

    It is easy to follow a routine.  So, here's another tip … make your routine better.  Here are some examples of things you could do to make being healthier happen with less effort.

    • Pre-sort your vitamins into daily doses, and keep them by the coffee machine.
    • Buy healthy snacks, like fruit, raw nuts, or organic energy bars (instead of chips).
    • Enjoy listening to music or listening to a book/podcast during your "exercise time." Dedicating time to something doesn't mean you can't be multitasking.
    • Park at the end of the parking lot, so you get to walk.
    • Meet with friends at the gym or a hiking spot rather than a bar or restaurant.

    You get the idea.  Get in the habit of looking for ways to create better habits.  What habits could you alter slightly to make a big difference?  Which things can you automate or outsource?

    For two books about the subject, I recommend Tiny Habits by B.J. Fogg and Willpower Doesn't Work by Benjamin Hardy. 

    Focus on Your Progress.

    In this case, it really is about the journey.  Instead of keeping track of how far you have to go … notice how far you've come. Utilize an internal locus of control. It is about creating energy, momentum, and a sense of possibility.  You may have a big, hairy, audacious goal in mind.  That's fine, as long as you realize that reaching each milestone along the way is still an accomplishment.

    • Find shoes that don't hurt your feet.
    • Pick a gym or a personal trainer that you enjoy.
    • Run more than two laps without stopping.

    It doesn't matter what they are … they all count, as long as you know that you are moving in the right direction.

    Summary

    The point of this exercise was not really to focus on fitness. These techniques and goal-setting tools work in any situation. The principles are:

    1. First, figure out what you want and why it is important to you. Only focus on the few things that are actually important to you. 
    2. Second, find something you can do, right now, which moves you in the right direction.
    3. Third, notice which things create (rather than take) energy. Spend your time on those, and automate or create routines to take care of the rest.
    4. Fourth, plan forward, but measure backward. Set milestones so that you can recognize and celebrate your progress.

    In my business, this translates to having a mission and vision – it's what we want, why it's important to us, and a basic strategy to get there. Then we create yearly "Big 3" goals that move us toward that long-term vision. Then, the team creates SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely) and KPIs (key performance indicators) so they know where to spend their time, and what milestones tell them they're on the right track.

    It isn't magic, but it works.

    Hope this helped.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – December 26th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Visualizing Global GDP in 2021

    There are numerous ways to look at or measure the global economy (including trade blocs, big industry movers, or debt). Another way to get a global overview is to compare GDP.

    When trading was slower and more deeply tied to an investor mindset, economics played a more significant role in fundamental analysis. As the holding period (or "time in trade") shrinks, there is less focus on predicting markets over the long term … and more on determining which techniques are making money now.

    Even though markets are not the same as the economy, on a macro scale, many believe that it is possible to create value by understanding and the global economy better.  

    With that, take a look at the $94 trillion world economy, divided by region. 

     

    Global-GDP-by-Country-2021-V15-Mobile-1 via visualcapitalist 

    Some thoughts: 

    • Global GDP was $87 trillion in 2019 and $84 trillion in 2020. So, while COVID did negatively impact GDP initially, it has rebounded and risen again as if 2020 hadn't interrupted the trend. 
    • Since 2018, China has been slowly gaining ground on the U.S.'s lead 
    • Global GDP isn't zero-sum, so countries doing better doesn't necessarily mean other countries are doing worse 
    • The top four countries – U.S., China, Japan, and Germany – make up over half of the world's GDP. 
    • Based on GDP growth, Libya, Guyana, Macao, the Maldives, and Ireland have the world's fastest-growing economies. 

    To put these numbers in perspective, the world economy was approximately $3 trillion in 1970, and GDP is estimated to double again by 2050. 

    Crazy stuff.

  • How’d These 2021 Predictions Fair?

    I write about the future of technology often. 

    But, sometimes, it's fun to see what others have to say as well.

    Every year Visual Capitalist puts together a list of their predictions for the coming year. As we reach the final two weeks of 2021, I figure it's worth taking a look!

    Here was their "bingo card" for 2021.

    Prediction-consensus-2021via visualcapitalist

    Honestly, that was a pretty good set of predictions.  While some of this list didn't pan out, much of it did. We're seeing a growing exodus from major cities (where people lived to pursue opportunities previously available only in such places), movies are recovering, and hybrid work models are all the rage. 

    Could they have predicted how much of an issue COVID would pose throughout the year? Probably not. 

    As we near the end of 2021, there's a lot of uncertainty in the air.

    Global markets have the jitters – and we don't see the increased volatility changing anytime soon. 

    What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022?

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – December 19th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Greatest Strength or Greatest Weakness

    I often talk about "unique abilities"… Those skills that define you and also bring you energy and joy. 

    But, often, our greatest strengths also can be our greatest weaknesses (especially when you overuse them). I shot a brief video on the subject (under three minutes). Check it out. 

     

    When we get good at something, it's easy to focus on that thing myopically. It makes sense. You develop a habit because you often get rewarded for doing it.  Consequently, it makes sense to focus on your strengths and leverage your unique abilities.

    On the other hand, no technique works all the time.  Further, the "recipe" that got you here isn't necessarily the recipe for next.

    With that said, you shouldn't neglect opportunities to find other ways to win or to seek improvement around you by intentionally growing the collection of unique abilities at your disposal.  One way to do that is to add 'Who's to your team whose unique abilities are the 'How's you need.   

    Recognizing which new capabilities you need can be the job description for a person or the "spec and scope" of a technology solution.  In either case, it frees you to focus on setting your sights higher and doing more of what matters and adds the most value. 

  • Will AI Replace Human Perception?

    I'll spoil the ending of this article. Yes, I believe at some point, AI will get to the point where it's as good as humans at almost everything. 

    It's already better than humans at many things – but as I've mentioned before, that doesn't make humans irrelevant. 

    The Development of Artificial Perception

    As humans, we can only interpret based on what we know … and for the most part, we don't know what we don't know. 

     

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    At the inception of artificial intelligence, humans would teach computers specific rules (or tell the computer that it should optimize on a particular measure). Early AI was basically a complex combination of simple algorithms created by humans. Now, computers can figure things out themselves, and some AI can even create new AI.

    The success of AI at deep learning or reinforcement learning is about to skyrocket. The technology and the learning frameworks are progressing quickly.  Combine that with expected hardware and software advances.  Add to that the increased focus and attention that this industry is getting.  Combined, this will attract even more opportunities, talent, and resources.   Expect to be amazed!

    Recently, a Deep Learning computation-imaging system correctly predicted which patients were pending heart failure with 97% accuracy - compared to human pathologists who are correct approximately 74% of the time.  That is a meaningful difference, especially if the life at risk is yours (or that of a loved one).  

    And that's only one example. There are countless more.  An AI assistant in Denmark listens to the equivalent of 911 calls and diagnoses heart problems.  Many industries (like financial services, actuarial sciences, marketing, customer service, healthcare, medical device manufacturing, construction, and cyber-security) increasingly use predictive analytics. The possibilities seem endless.

    Computers Don't Get Distracted.

    Error is not a fault of our knowledge, but a mistake of our judgment giving assent to that which is not true. -  John Locke

    It makes sense that these machines can be more accurate than humans because they can ingest more and better data.  Moreover, these systems process the data more thoroughly and deeply than humans do, in a fraction of the time (and with greater accuracy).  AI is better and faster at combinatorial and dimensional expansion.  It is modular and fractal.  Because of these "truths" (and others), what used to be science fiction is now inevitable. Tiny AI capabilities combine with simple automation and the mechanical ability to follow checklists and best practices with precision in a simple, repeatable, and scalable way. The path is clear … and so is the result. 

    Meanwhile, humans are prone to fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.  They suffer from too many distractions, biases, and a tendency to relate current situations to past ones (or to follow patterns that are coincident rather than causal). 

    So, it isn't a fair fight.  And rather than fight, we should figure out how to best take advantage of the new capabilities and possibilities AI creates for us.

    Why?  Partly because humans too often choose to be "happy" or "safe" rather than right.

    The "Nightlight in the Dark" Phenomenon.  

    A nightlight might make you feel safer – but it likely won't keep you safe from the things you worry might hurt you. 

    Likewise, when you're in Vegas, you may have strategies and rituals that you hope provide an edge – but it is unlikely that your 'superstitions' change the odds in your favor or otherwise help you beat their system. 

    The paradigm shift is that with algorithms – or artificial intelligence – I don't care if I understand why something works. Instead, I care that my systems are valid and performing well. Really, I must only know that the system is useful and what its expectancy score is (over time) to compare it to other options. 

    Consequently, the best adopters of advanced technology and innovation aren't looking for a better algorithm; they're looking for more ways to win, better strategic certainty, and a way to compound their insights and learning to "raise the bar" and change the game. 

    Most AI methodologies are simple systems trained on extensive data lakes with simple goals … And that's a good thing.

    Simple works. Simple is hard to break. Simple means there's likely more consistency. As Swarm Intelligence increases, these simple systems can communicate, coordinate, and collaborate to perform better and more consistently. 

    Can Artificial Intelligence Replace Human Perception?

    Someone recently asked me whether I was worried that AI might eventually become more powerful than humans. My response was that I'm not concerned about that – because it's inevitable. AI is already good enough that you can use it to be good at almost anything. It's not yet good enough to be good at everything. But, objectively, we are in AI's infancy. These are exponential technologies creating exponential possibilities. The best response to its ascension is to figure out how to best leverage what it is good at (or makes possible) to improve the quality of our world and our lives. It doesn't make sense to fight mother nature, but rather to take advantage of the natural path it lays in front of you.

    So, can AI replace human perception? As I said at the beginning, I do believe the answer is yes … eventually.  But, with that said, there will always be things that humans are "better" at than an AI.  The goal is to recognize that relying on and adopting advanced technologies and innovation frees humans to focus on what matters most and creates the most value. Freeing them from busy work (or lower-valued tasks) creates an opportunity for people to do nothing … or to fill that space with higher-level activities and achievements. Ultimately, the choice is ours.

    While AI is an inevitability – there is a long road ahead. What you make that mean, what you choose to focus on, and what you ultimately do on that path is up to you.

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – December 12th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • It’s That Time of Year …

    Gift-giving is certainly an art more than a science. 

    As many of you start making your final purchases for the year, I thought you might enjoy these parodies from SNL. 

    Considering buying her a car?

    via SNL

    What about some clothes for your children?

     

    via SNL

    And, while you're out doing all of your shopping, you might need a little pick-me-up. Why not some Dunkin?

     

    via SNL

    Hope you have a good week.

  • A-To-Z of The Internet Minute in 2021

    As I get older, time seems to move faster … but it's also true that as I get older, more is accomplished every minute. 

    Technology is a powerful force function. In fact, the amount of data in the digital universe effectively doubles every two years. 

    Every couple of years, I revisit a chart about how much data is generated every minute on the internet.  

    In reverse chronological order, here's 2018, 2015, and 2011. 

    Here's an excerpt from 2015 for some perspective: 

    Compared to 2008 here is what's happened with social networks:

    • The number of people online has more than doubled from 1.4 billion to over 3 billion (2021 #: 5.2 billion) 
    • Facebook has gone from 80 million users to more than 1.4 billion (2021 #: 2.89 billion
    • Twitter had 2 million accounts and now it is 300 million and counting. (2021 #: 206 million ACTIVE users after a big bot deletion)
    • The number of smartphones was 250 million in 2008 and today there are more than 2 billion. That is an 800% increase! (2021 #: 6.37 billion)

    Today this is what happens every minute on the web.

    • 4 million search queries on Google
    • Facebook users share 2.46 million pieces of content
    • Email users send 204 million messages

    Throughout its (pretty short) history, the internet has been arguably the most important battlefield for relevancy and innovation. 

    So, what does the internet look like in 2021?

    Data-never-sleeps-9-1.0-1200px-1

    DOMO via visualcapitalist 

    Looking at the list, we see new editions like Clubhouse and Strava. Partially due to the quarantine, you're still seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams. 

    Just to pick out some of the key figures in the chart this year. 

    • Amazon users spend $283,000
    • 6M people shop online
    • TikTok users watch 167M videos
    • and, Zoom hosts 856 minutes of webinars. 

    Before 2020, I already thought that big tech had a massive influence on our lives. Yet, somehow this past year has pushed their impact even higher. 

    One other thing this chart also helps put into perspective is the rapid rate of adoption. As you look at different year's charts, you can see how quickly apps have become part of the cultural zeitgeist. 

    How do you think these numbers will grow or change in 2022?