October 2009

RoboForm: the Best Password Manager and Form-Filler
Here's something that I use many times, every day, and still think is a terrific piece of software.

Besides completely automating password entry and form-filling, RoboForm it allows you to:
- Manage your passwords and log-in automatically.
- Fill long registration and checkout forms with one click.
- Encrypt your passwords to achieve complete security.
- Generate random passwords to maximize password strength.
- Back-up and synchronize passwords between computers.
- Fight Phishing and defeat Keyloggers.
This tool will save you time and help keep you safe on an increasingly dangerous web. Here is a screenshot of the toolbar it installs in your browser.

There is no need to remember passwords anymore … and even better, it keeps track of web addresses too (like bank and credit-card sites or any site you need to enter your member credentials). Type a few letters into the RoboForm search bar, click the website it suggests, then it takes you to the appropriate address and fills in the log-in credentials, automatically. It's fast, safe, and easy.

Lots of Ways to Use It.

RoboForm has a version that runs from a USB stick (so you can take it with you anywhere and use it without installing anything on someone else's computer). There are also versions for various smart-phones, including the iPhone. In addition, it links to their tremendous file synchronization tool, which is also worth taking a look at.

RoboForm was named PC Magazine Editor's Choice, and CNET Download.com's Software of the Year.

I've used this software for many years, and watched it get better and smarter. The author never tried to charge an upgrade fee, and continues to add new features and more intelligent algorithms to fill-out web forms as they continue to evolve.

All-in-all, this is a high-quality utility worth having on your computer. Hope that helps.
October 31, 2009
RoboForm: the Best Password Manager and Form-Filler
Here's something that I use many times, every day, and still think is a terrific piece of software.

Besides completely automating password entry and form-filling, RoboForm it allows you to:
- Manage your passwords and log-in automatically.
- Fill long registration and checkout forms with one click.
- Encrypt your passwords to achieve complete security.
- Generate random passwords to maximize password strength.
- Back-up and synchronize passwords between computers.
- Fight Phishing and defeat Keyloggers.
This tool will save you time and help keep you safe on an increasingly dangerous web. Here is a screenshot of the toolbar it installs in your browser.

There is no need to remember passwords anymore … and even better, it keeps track of web addresses too (like bank and credit-card sites or any site you need to enter your member credentials). Type a few letters into the RoboForm search bar, click the website it suggests, then it takes you to the appropriate address and fills in the log-in credentials, automatically. It's fast, safe, and easy.

Lots of Ways to Use It.

RoboForm has a version that runs from a USB stick (so you can take it with you anywhere and use it without installing anything on someone else's computer). There are also versions for various smart-phones, including the iPhone. In addition, it links to their tremendous file synchronization tool, which is also worth taking a look at.

RoboForm was named PC Magazine Editor's Choice, and CNET Download.com's Software of the Year.

I've used this software for many years, and watched it get better and smarter. The author never tried to charge an upgrade fee, and continues to add new features and more intelligent algorithms to fill-out web forms as they continue to evolve.

All-in-all, this is a high-quality utility worth having on your computer. Hope that helps.
October 31, 2009
Capitalogix Commentary 10/25/09
Traders are starting to sell into strength. That is something to watch.

This Heat Map, from FinViz, shows that last Friday was a tough day in the markets. Most everything was red. However, Amazon was up almost 27%. And Microsoft had a pretty good day too. Realize that the averages would have been even weaker without those outlier performances.

But big up-moves on big down days are another sign of volatility, confusion and disagreement. These are simply things I've learned to notice.

Price is still the primary indicator. So keep an eye on the trend-line of your choice.

Items In the Rear-View Mirror May Only Be Half as Big as They Seemed.

Why isn't the world beating a path to our markets, driving-up prices and volume? Perhaps because they don't see our market the same way we do.

This next chart caught my eye because it shows our 20% rally (since May) is less than a 10% rally, when it is measured in Euros instead of Dollars.

A similar phenomena is playing-out with Gold too.

Venture Capital Charts are Eye-Opening … But Not Wallet-Opening.

The third quarter was rough for VCs, with 17 firms raising just $1.6 billion. That's the fewest number of firms to raise money in 15 years; and it's the smallest amount of money raised since Q1 2003, says the National Venture Capital Association.

How tough was it? Venture Capital funding fell 42% through the third quarter compared with last year, and had an 81% drop quarter-to-quarter from a year ago.

The more I think about this, the less it worries me. There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, and I believe that we just aren't in the stage of the cycle where late-majority money flows to speculative investments. There is a similar situation going on in the M&A cycle too.

When the longer-term economic recovery gets moving, so will the money.

The Jobs Flu.

The real virus affecting the economy is unemployment.

For example, Sun says it is about to cut 3,000 jobs. Frankly, I hear chatter from a number of companies planning to reduce headcount in meaningful and painful ways. Bottom Line: Without a clear path to more sales, the pressure to make numbers is driving further reductions.

It seems several things are thinning the workforce.

President Obama declared swine flu a national emergency. Officials described the move as similar to a declaration ahead of a hurricane making landfall; though perhaps it was more a "call to action," like how they hand out Nobel Peace Prizes.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
- What Happens When the Fed's Buying Binge Ends? (WSJ)
- McKinsey Says Global Capital Markets Entering a New Era (McKinsey)
- Sharp Drop in Start-Ups Bodes Ill for Jobs & Growth Outlook. (WSJ)
- Bank of America Lost $1 Billion in Q3, & It's Now Testing Support. (NYTimes)
- Great Chart of Google's Long Road Back To $500 (BusinessInsider)
- Nokia Slaps Apple with Lawsuit about Wireless Patents. (Forbes)
- Some Reasons Not to Care about Dow 10K. (CuriousCapitalist)
- More Posts Moving the Markets.
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
- A $1 Million Research Bargain for Netflix, & Maybe a Model for Others. (NYTimes)
- Forbes Lists the 50 Most Influential Management Gurus. (Forbes)
- Does Social Media Mark the End of the Email Era? (WSJ)
- 54% of CIOs Forbid Use of Social Networks at Their Companies. (WallSt&Tech)
- Gout: The Missing Chapter from Good Calories, Bad Calories. (Ferriss)
- Study – Touch Money And You Feel Less Pain. (CreditCards)
- Disney Offers Refunds on Baby Einstein. (TDB)
- More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
October 26, 2009
Capitalogix Commentary 10/25/09
Traders are starting to sell into strength. That is something to watch.

This Heat Map, from FinViz, shows that last Friday was a tough day in the markets. Most everything was red. However, Amazon was up almost 27%. And Microsoft had a pretty good day too. Realize that the averages would have been even weaker without those outlier performances.

But big up-moves on big down days are another sign of volatility, confusion and disagreement. These are simply things I've learned to notice.

Price is still the primary indicator. So keep an eye on the trend-line of your choice.

Items In the Rear-View Mirror May Only Be Half as Big as They Seemed.

Why isn't the world beating a path to our markets, driving-up prices and volume? Perhaps because they don't see our market the same way we do.

This next chart caught my eye because it shows our 20% rally (since May) is less than a 10% rally, when it is measured in Euros instead of Dollars.

A similar phenomena is playing-out with Gold too.

Venture Capital Charts are Eye-Opening … But Not Wallet-Opening.

The third quarter was rough for VCs, with 17 firms raising just $1.6 billion. That's the fewest number of firms to raise money in 15 years; and it's the smallest amount of money raised since Q1 2003, says the National Venture Capital Association.

How tough was it? Venture Capital funding fell 42% through the third quarter compared with last year, and had an 81% drop quarter-to-quarter from a year ago.

The more I think about this, the less it worries me. There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, and I believe that we just aren't in the stage of the cycle where late-majority money flows to speculative investments. There is a similar situation going on in the M&A cycle too.

When the longer-term economic recovery gets moving, so will the money.

The Jobs Flu.

The real virus affecting the economy is unemployment.

For example, Sun says it is about to cut 3,000 jobs. Frankly, I hear chatter from a number of companies planning to reduce headcount in meaningful and painful ways. Bottom Line: Without a clear path to more sales, the pressure to make numbers is driving further reductions.

It seems several things are thinning the workforce.

President Obama declared swine flu a national emergency. Officials described the move as similar to a declaration ahead of a hurricane making landfall; though perhaps it was more a "call to action," like how they hand out Nobel Peace Prizes.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
- What Happens When the Fed's Buying Binge Ends? (WSJ)
- McKinsey Says Global Capital Markets Entering a New Era (McKinsey)
- Sharp Drop in Start-Ups Bodes Ill for Jobs & Growth Outlook. (WSJ)
- Bank of America Lost $1 Billion in Q3, & It's Now Testing Support. (NYTimes)
- Great Chart of Google's Long Road Back To $500 (BusinessInsider)
- Nokia Slaps Apple with Lawsuit about Wireless Patents. (Forbes)
- Some Reasons Not to Care about Dow 10K. (CuriousCapitalist)
- More Posts Moving the Markets.
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
- A $1 Million Research Bargain for Netflix, & Maybe a Model for Others. (NYTimes)
- Forbes Lists the 50 Most Influential Management Gurus. (Forbes)
- Does Social Media Mark the End of the Email Era? (WSJ)
- 54% of CIOs Forbid Use of Social Networks at Their Companies. (WallSt&Tech)
- Gout: The Missing Chapter from Good Calories, Bad Calories. (Ferriss)
- Study – Touch Money And You Feel Less Pain. (CreditCards)
- Disney Offers Refunds on Baby Einstein. (TDB)
- More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
October 26, 2009
New Version 4 of Shift Happens Video
Last week I wrote that my son (and his generation) won't communicate the way we do.

For example, he used 9,827 text messages and 564 MB of data on his phone this month.

I'm not going to pretend that I understand how I would use that many messages … But I'm beginning to understand that he does.

A decade ago, I couldn't have conceived the way we use trading technology today. The scope and scale of what's possible would have seemed like an improbable science fiction plot.

And that is the point. Some things seem like nonsense (or magic), until they become science and way things are done.

New Version 4 of Shift Happens Video

Fascinating presentation of facts, stats, and insights about how technology (like the internet) has been changing the world. Some of the tech that we take for granted is now at an inflection point because of the sheer mass of late-adopters.

It is worth watching and thinking about … as someone living in these
changing times … and in terms of how these changing times shift the
game and create a whole new set of opportunities.

While similar to the post on how Social Media is changing everything … this presentation focuses on the bigger picture and has a more general business tone.

I like the new
design and the added content; yet, found the music a bit distracting.

We are moving forward more quickly than ever. What you thought you knew about the
economy, technology, innovation, and the world are probably
out-of-date. I can't wait to see what comes next.
- Here is a link to a transcription of the presentation.
- Here is a link to the author's blog.
- Here is a link to the Shift Happens Project.
October 26, 2009
New Version 4 of Shift Happens Video
Last week I wrote that my son (and his generation) won't communicate the way we do.

For example, he used 9,827 text messages and 564 MB of data on his phone this month.

I'm not going to pretend that I understand how I would use that many messages … But I'm beginning to understand that he does.

A decade ago, I couldn't have conceived the way we use trading technology today. The scope and scale of what's possible would have seemed like an improbable science fiction plot.

And that is the point. Some things seem like nonsense (or magic), until they become science and way things are done.

New Version 4 of Shift Happens Video

Fascinating presentation of facts, stats, and insights about how technology (like the internet) has been changing the world. Some of the tech that we take for granted is now at an inflection point because of the sheer mass of late-adopters.

It is worth watching and thinking about … as someone living in these
changing times … and in terms of how these changing times shift the
game and create a whole new set of opportunities.

While similar to the post on how Social Media is changing everything … this presentation focuses on the bigger picture and has a more general business tone.

I like the new
design and the added content; yet, found the music a bit distracting.

We are moving forward more quickly than ever. What you thought you knew about the
economy, technology, innovation, and the world are probably
out-of-date. I can't wait to see what comes next.
- Here is a link to a transcription of the presentation.
- Here is a link to the author's blog.
- Here is a link to the Shift Happens Project.
October 26, 2009
Capitalogix Commentary 10/18/09
Dow 10,000 – Version 2.0.

SNL made a joke that hitting Dow 10K was different this time. The difference was that 15 million unemployed Americans cheered while they watched CNBC on their couch in their pajamas.

The U.S. Equity Indices continue to perform well. The economy, however, is sending mixed signals. At this point, some would argue that any positive economic signal is a welcome signal.

Mixed Signals: Two Charts Giving Us Different Views Into a Potential Economic Recovery.

The first chart shows that unemployment is still growing faster than new job growth. Recent readings show six unemployed people for each potential job opening. A glance at the chart shows that ratio is usually 2:1 (rather than 6:1). I'll be watching this indicator, and will take even a small improvement as a positive sign for the economy.

Speaking of positive signs of economic recovery, the next chart does show a hopeful turn of events (based on increasing Capacity Utilization).

Utilization has increased for three straight months, and is up from the record low set in June (the series starts in 1967). Capacity Utilization had decreased in 17 of the previous 18 months. An increase in capacity utilization is usually an indicator that a recession is over. Let's hope it keeps up.

When In An Up-Trend, Like This, Don't Fight the Fed.

I was reading "A Dash of Insight" and saw this investment hypothesis: "The government is on a mission. You may not like the policies, but as an investor, you fight it at your peril." In other words, don't fight the Fed.

Recently,
that has been a painful lesson to Bears trying to short the rally. The
result, a dramatically declining short interest. Here is a chart from
Bespoke, illustrating that point.

At a certain point, the lack of sellers
becomes the contrarian indicator that we are near a top. Again, in
trending markets, too much thinking is dangerous. Just consider this
another indicator to watch when the up-trend finally breaks.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
- Impacts of High-Frequency Trading – Manipulation, Distortion or Improvement? (Wharton)
- Blue Chips Top 10,000 for the First Time in a Year. (WSJ)
- Loose Monetary Policy: When Will Wall Street's Biggest Gravy Train Slow? (WSJ)
- Goldman Sachs Sees a "Perfect Storm" for M&A. (StreetInsider)
- Venture Capital Exits Dallas and Other Places Outside of Silicon Valley. (WSJ)
- Pessimistic Commentators Remain Anything But Convinced by the Rally. (Economist)
- Bloomberg Buys BusinessWeek From McGraw-Hill. (StreetInsider)
- More Posts Moving the Markets.
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
- Mossberg Gives Windows 7 a Good Review. (WSJ)
- White House Tells Fox Network News to Take a Hike. (Newser)
- Patent Auctions Offer Protections to Inventors. (NYTimes)
- Facebook Has a Happiness Index Drawn From Posts. (NYTimes)
- Anthropologist: Modern Male Is 'Worst' Man Ever. (Newser)
- Un-Tapped Potential: Autistic Savant Draws Cities from Memory. (Wiltshire)
- Cool Chart of Apple's Path To 2 Billion iPhone App Downloads. (BusinessInsider)
- More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
October 18, 2009
Capitalogix Commentary 10/18/09
Dow 10,000 – Version 2.0.

SNL made a joke that hitting Dow 10K was different this time. The difference was that 15 million unemployed Americans cheered while they watched CNBC on their couch in their pajamas.

The U.S. Equity Indices continue to perform well. The economy, however, is sending mixed signals. At this point, some would argue that any positive economic signal is a welcome signal.

Mixed Signals: Two Charts Giving Us Different Views Into a Potential Economic Recovery.

The first chart shows that unemployment is still growing faster than new job growth. Recent readings show six unemployed people for each potential job opening. A glance at the chart shows that ratio is usually 2:1 (rather than 6:1). I'll be watching this indicator, and will take even a small improvement as a positive sign for the economy.

Speaking of positive signs of economic recovery, the next chart does show a hopeful turn of events (based on increasing Capacity Utilization).

Utilization has increased for three straight months, and is up from the record low set in June (the series starts in 1967). Capacity Utilization had decreased in 17 of the previous 18 months. An increase in capacity utilization is usually an indicator that a recession is over. Let's hope it keeps up.

When In An Up-Trend, Like This, Don't Fight the Fed.

I was reading "A Dash of Insight" and saw this investment hypothesis: "The government is on a mission. You may not like the policies, but as an investor, you fight it at your peril." In other words, don't fight the Fed.

Recently,
that has been a painful lesson to Bears trying to short the rally. The
result, a dramatically declining short interest. Here is a chart from
Bespoke, illustrating that point.

At a certain point, the lack of sellers
becomes the contrarian indicator that we are near a top. Again, in
trending markets, too much thinking is dangerous. Just consider this
another indicator to watch when the up-trend finally breaks.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
- Impacts of High-Frequency Trading – Manipulation, Distortion or Improvement? (Wharton)
- Blue Chips Top 10,000 for the First Time in a Year. (WSJ)
- Loose Monetary Policy: When Will Wall Street's Biggest Gravy Train Slow? (WSJ)
- Goldman Sachs Sees a "Perfect Storm" for M&A. (StreetInsider)
- Venture Capital Exits Dallas and Other Places Outside of Silicon Valley. (WSJ)
- Pessimistic Commentators Remain Anything But Convinced by the Rally. (Economist)
- Bloomberg Buys BusinessWeek From McGraw-Hill. (StreetInsider)
- More Posts Moving the Markets.
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
- Mossberg Gives Windows 7 a Good Review. (WSJ)
- White House Tells Fox Network News to Take a Hike. (Newser)
- Patent Auctions Offer Protections to Inventors. (NYTimes)
- Facebook Has a Happiness Index Drawn From Posts. (NYTimes)
- Anthropologist: Modern Male Is 'Worst' Man Ever. (Newser)
- Un-Tapped Potential: Autistic Savant Draws Cities from Memory. (Wiltshire)
- Cool Chart of Apple's Path To 2 Billion iPhone App Downloads. (BusinessInsider)
- More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
October 18, 2009
Social Media is Changing Everything
My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold. I was looking at recent phone use. The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.
- My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
- I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
- My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
- My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.
How can that be? That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome.

But, of course, that isn't how he sees it. He is holding many conversations at once. Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why … some are even about homework. Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs. There is near instant gratification. And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

Welcome to the World of Socialnomics. This video has a bunch of interesting statistics … and is fun to watch.

Other Resources:
- Here is a link to a short-version of this video.
- This reminds me of the "Shift Happens!" video.
- Worth Looking At … Here are the Stats.
October 18, 2009
Social Media is Changing Everything
My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold. I was looking at recent phone use. The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.
- My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
- I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
- My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
- My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.
How can that be? That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome.

But, of course, that isn't how he sees it. He is holding many conversations at once. Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why … some are even about homework. Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs. There is near instant gratification. And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

Welcome to the World of Socialnomics. This video has a bunch of interesting statistics … and is fun to watch.

Other Resources:
- Here is a link to a short-version of this video.
- This reminds me of the "Shift Happens!" video.
- Worth Looking At … Here are the Stats.
October 18, 2009