Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Sea-Thru Sea

    An engineer and oceanographer, Derya Akkaynak, created an algorithm that removes the water from underwater images – meaning it takes away the haze & tint that come with most underwater photos. It doesn't require a color chart either (though it does need distance information it gathers through numerous photographs from different angles). 

    Check it out. 

     

    via ScientificAmerican 

    From the abstract: 

    The Sea-thru method estimates backscatter using the dark pixels and their known range information. Then, it uses an estimate of the spatially varying illuminant to obtain the range-dependent attenuation coefficient. Using more than 1,100 images from two optically different water bodies, which we make available, we show that our method with the revised model outperforms those using the atmospheric model. Consistent removal of water will open up large underwater datasets to powerful computer vision and machine learning algorithms, creating exciting opportunities for the future of underwater exploration and conservation.

    Essentially, the algorithm goes through every pixel and color balances the image based on collected data on distance/color degradation.

    T0xSYRV

    As with most algorithms of this type – the more data we feed it, the better it gets. Sea-thru already has great applications for furthering ocean-based research, but the follow-up question is can this algorithm be extrapolated outward to deal with other atmospheric conditions outside of water – smog, etc. 

    What other uses can you imagine?  It is not hard to imagine how this could be applied to market data either … Interesting stuff! 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – November 17th, 2019

    The holiday season is coming fast.

     

    191117 Holding Off the Holidays

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • November Round Table With John DeTore – Part 2

    Peak Capital is running an online roundtable in November with our CIO John DeTore, John Mauldin, and Sam Stovall.  You can check with them to get the full answers from the various panelists, but I wanted to share some of John's answers ahead of time. I previously shared Part 1. This is Part 2 and will finish this piece. 

    November 2019 PCM Roundtable 

    Peak: Consensus suggests the U.S. economy is slowing and that trend will continue. What might cause an unexpected rise in GDP going into 2020?

    John: Well, a cascading set of trade deals would now set us up for that.  It would be politically beneficial for Trump to wrap them up soon.  So that means 1) he will try really hard, and 2) other countries (and his political adversaries) will use that to their advantage. I have no idea who will win that one.  For instance, look for the house to ignore USMCA until the election.

    Peak: The Fed takes its cue from the economy, so it is unusual with virtually full employment and strong wage growth they are cutting rates, and everyone expects QE4. Any non-consensus views about the Fed's policy going forward?

    John: Well, they are cutting rates not because the economy is weak, but because they figured out that they overdid it in 2018 by raising the rate.  They started out too low, they raised it too much, and are now in the process of fixing it.

    Peak: Earnings season started strong with better than expected earnings from banks. Are initial results going to be reflective of the broad market's earnings for the remainder of 2019?

    John: Earnings are not going to be a problem for us. 

    Last year, earnings benefitted from very substantial corporate tax relief and deregulation.  This will continue for several years, but the benefit is front-loaded, and the tailwind will ease off.

    We fall into the trap of looking at year-over-year EPS growth to judge the strength of our public companies.  They are earning good money!  Profits are not being driven down by any undue systematic force.  Even if they don’t grow fast, they are still quite profitable.

    Peak: Looking out 12 months, 1 month prior to the 2020 election, do you believe the stock market will be higher, lower, or generally flat from today's level?

    John: The market assumes Trump will win and very much will want Trump to win, if only to avoid the painful experiment with the far-left policies of the current Democratic candidates. 

    You would think Trump would be unbeatable given the success of the economy and a democratic candidate pool that is oddly positioned to the left of the Democratic party in general. 

    But there really is Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) in the country today …don’t remember there ever being a President with such venomous detractors since Nixon … right before his resignation.  So, we can’t assume.  And Hillary might get into the race which will cause the market to take off if only for the entertainment value.

    The answer to the question is that I am biased to the market being higher.  If it looks like Trump will probably lose the market will have a hard time with this and could be off quite a bit.

    Peak: The search for yield has not gotten any easier in 2019. What concerns do you have for pension plans and retirees who require steady income?

    John: A lot of concern.  Long-term rates, in fact, act as a negotiation between generations.  Retirees, who need income, lend their life assets to young families, who borrow for home formation.  As discussed earlier, long-term rates are too low.

    While “too-low” rates do in general stimulate the economy, lots of awkward or even negative side effects occur:

    • Pensions go deeper into unfunded territory because of the assumed discounts on future obligations.
    • Low rates mean low mortgage rates. While this is initially good for borrowers, there is an equilibrium that drives up housing prices.  Most of America buys their home with a mortgage and set what they can afford based on what they can borrow.  Low rates push housing prices up.
    • While retirees get hurt by low rates, it's unclear if young families will get helped in the long run. They end up with more debt for the payment they can afford.  It can lead to a housing price bubble.
    • There are other disruptions of too-low rates like “zombie companies” supported by too-easy credit.

    Not to sound all 50’s about it, the solution for income for retirees (that don’t pursue active management) might be to seek out strong US public companies that have significant dividend yields.  The S&P yield is now competitive with bonds.  Remember also that we have gone through a multi-decade process of accepting that stock-buybacks are often preferred by investors to dividend yields.  You don’t just get the dividend payment, you get the buybacks in the form of capital appreciation.

    Those who are interested in alpha should find approaches that will work in the new environment.  The three major sources of return available to typical U.S. investors are bond yields, the stock market, and a return from active management.

    As yields fall, active management must work less well to keep up.  The bar has been lowered. 

    There has been a mass exodus from active management into index funds and ETFs.  So many people I talk to say they don’t want to take the risk of active management.  But a S&P index fund has more risk than most retirees should take with the core of their assets.  Active management in general needs a careful new look by investors.

    Peak: Switzerland, Germany and Japan have negative yields going well out on the yield curve. Do you expect negative yields at any point in the U.S.?

    John: No … but I didn’t think they would go as low as they have so far either.  

    I’ve heard educated arguments that falling yields are a counter-intuitive result of too much government debt.  But this just seems wrong-headed to me.  I brought it up earlier:  the yield of bonds is set by supply and demand.  Supply is certainly up given our deficit spending, but, counter-intuitively, rates are down.   I am left with only one good answer: demand is up more than supply.

    My suspicion is that the culprit is the post-2008 waves of regulation with its haircuts to allowed leverage, and complex capital ratios that favor first-world sovereign bonds.  I see no reason why so many would be willing to hold a bond at negative rates unless they really had no legal choice.  The sky is not falling, there are many great places to invest capital for positive rates.

    To answer the question, sooner or later we will better understand why negative rates happen.  We should try and fix it. If we don’t, it's probably a matter of time 'til it happens here.

    Peak: Correlations between stocks and bonds this year have made maintaining a diversified portfolio relatively easy. Anything on your radar that may make this more difficult in the future?

    John: Bonds obviously respond to changes in interest rates.  Stocks, through the P/E ratio, also respond to interest rates in the same way.  Lower rates mean a higher P/E, all things being equal. 

    In periods of rapid rate changes or big changes in inflation expectations, the two asset classes will be correlated because they are both responding primarily to rate changes.  Both will have positive returns when rates drop.

    Hmm … but right now the market has refused to play this game.  While the yields on bonds are in many cases at ALL TIME LOWS,  the corresponding yields on stocks are near average.  It is as if the stock market is saying: “these really low bond rates are crazy … this can't last for the next 5-10 years … I’m waiting this out.”  If the market ends its obstinance and plays along, IT WOULD NEED A 50x P/E multiple.  It might even be saying “The stock market is rational, but the bond market is a bubble.”

    The stock market is responding to the EPS side of the equation, though.  When EPS come though unexpectedly, the market rises.  When perceived growth increases the market rises (and the bond market falls).

    In addition, the market has been really (too) preoccupied with politics and the political divide in the country right now.

    This adds up to a low correlation between the stock and bond markets.  It is lower than usual and will eventually go back to normal. 

    Catalysts that would cause low correlation to rise: 

    1. it will happen naturally if bond yields and P/E ratios normalize,
    2. it will also happen if we go into a recession and the stock market re-adopts it “bad news is good news” posture and rises with every rate lowering move by the Fed.

     

    Peak: If I gave you a magic wand that allowed you to change just one thing about the financial markets or investing, what would it be?

    John: (I genuinely, seriously wish I had invented high-frequency trading back when it was fun and innovative.  I promise I would put my $B’s to good use.)

    But seriously, I wish we would pass legislation (tax or regulation) that made it attractive to spinoff companies rather than merge them.  Many evils in our economy stem from too few firms that are too large and influential (drugs, tech, banking).  This is doable and would affect income disparity more than any of the proposals I hear from politicians.  It would add many more senior and middle managers who are talented and can drive innovation better with some independence.

    JDT1

    via USFunds

  • Investing In Your Future

    I think about investments a lot … which makes sense given my profession. 

    Yet, there are three key investments I think are more important than any monetary investment you can make. 

    The first is in yourself – in your physical and mental health. I recently spent a whole month introducing my approach. 

    Physical and mental health was a major topic at last weekend's Genius Network Annual Event in Arizona.  I enjoyed listening to speakers like Peter Diamandis, Andrew Weil, Christopher Voss, and Dave Asprey – which brings me to key investment #2.

    Find Your Genius Network

    "You are the averrage of the five people you spend the most time with." – Jim Rohn

    I have always believed that you can predict a lot about your future, based on the quality of the people you spend the present with. That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical. Peer groups help us set higher standards for our behavior, help us aim higher in our aspirations, and they help us stay better focused and committed to big-picture goals.

    I belong to several executive and business leader peer groups like Genius Network,  EO or Strategic Coach—groups that double as advisory boards, counselor’s offices, and idea factories. They allow me to see, hear, and discuss things I don't normally think about, talk about, or even notice.  Peer groups bring blind spots to my attention and keep me fully connected to trends that are transforming industry on a global scale.

    I've gained partners, life-long friends, and ideas that will last a lifetime. I've also started taking my son, Zach, to these events so he can get a headstart. 

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    Dan Sullivan, founder of Strategic Coach, met my son and proclaimed "The book reader!" 

    Good memory. 

    Which brings me to my third key investment – and the one I'm most proud of. 

    Spread The Wealth

    It is not enough to have a good mind; the main thing is to use it well. -Rene Descartes

    Like many parents, I wanted to teach my children that, to a large extent, they control what happens to them. One of the first ways I did that was to set up a "game" for them to earn video games. Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games.  Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books. Here is a photo from way back then.

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    Paid With Play.

    Here's how it worked. Every 10 books earned them a video game, and every 100 books earned them a video game console. When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished the requisite number of books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store (does anyone remember CompUSA?) for them to choose whatever game (or console) their heart desired.

    How Can You Encourage a Jump to the Next Level?

    “Don’t just read the easy stuff. You may be entertained by it, but you will never grow from it.” – Jim Rohn

    There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortable reading a certain type of book, and didn't want to read the kind of books that I read. So, I created a bonus system that counted a particular book as three books. I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.

    It's a great way to learn about your kids.

    I used the bookstore to get a sense of how the boys were doing. For example, I might say "I notice that you read five books in that series, maybe you'd like this book". Or, "That sure is a lot of science fiction; what was the last biography you read?" For the most part, though, I didn't care what they read. The key was to get them to want to choose certain books for their own reasons. Ultimately, their preference meant they were learning to love reading – and once you love reading, you'll eventually branch out on your own.

    It Puts Them In Control of Their Destiny and Rewards.

    My younger son likes competition. He also broke or misplaced many things. So, in order to earn back the Game Boy unit that he lost, I challenged him to read five books in five days. These weren't easy books either. It was designed to stretch him, and also to teach him that he could read a book a night. The bet was that he either finished all the books in the allocated time, or none of them counted towards games or Game Boys. On the other hand, if he read a book a night for two weeks, not only would he get to have his Game Boy back, the books would count towards a game too. It worked like a charm, and we were both happy.

    So, Who Got the Better Bargain?

    To end the game, as they entered their teenage years, I upped the ante a little. 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice and had beaten the system. Both boys cashed in … and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad. I got what I wanted, though; my boys love reading, and I was able to teach them two key ideals.

    1. The secret to growth is to constantly challenge yourself
    2. You can accomplish anything you put your mind to … one step at a time.

    That is an investment that pays dividends for a long time.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – November 10th, 2019

    Here's a quick reminder about Veterans Day.
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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

     

     

  • A Roller Coaster of Emotions

    I recently saw this video during a presentation.

    It's hilarious – and a great reminder that it doesn't matter how simple something is (if the stakes are high enough) and the environment is distracting enough. 

    That's where automation comes in. Enjoy. 

     

    Eliminating fear and greed are great steps to take in the pursuit of eliminating discretionary mistakes.

    Think about how many other places this video explains the "why" behind disappointing results.

  • To Infinity and Beyond!

    Thursday was Halloween … even though my son is old enough that he doesn’t want to go trick or treating with me (who could guess why) he still bought me a costume so we could dress up for our annual Capitalogix Costume Contest.

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    They said one size fits all … but they didn't say it would fit well. 

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  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – November 3rd, 2019

    Around the world, people are protesting – with amazing representation from our youth. The sparks that started these blazes may seem small, but they're indicative of great unrest. In Chile, there was a hike in metro prices … in Lebanon, a tax on WhatsApp… in Hong Kong, a proposed extradition bill. 

    These sparks brought light to deep-rooted inequalities, frustrations, and government control. As a result, we're seeing the protests continue even after the initial complaint is addressed. 

    It's harrowing seeing the need for protests and the violence from both sides that inevitably occur, but it's encouraging to see these people fighting for their rights and equality and instrumenting change. 

    231420

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

     

    Trading Links:

     

  • November Round Table with John DeTore – Part 1

    Peak Capital is running an online roundtable in November with our CIO John DeTore, John Mauldin, Sam Stovall.  You can check with them to get the full answers from the various panelists, but I wanted to share some of John's answers ahead of time. 

    It's a lot of information, so I'm going to split it between two weeks. 

    November 2019 PCM Roundtable 

    Peak: Let's kick things off in a very different way. It is April 2021 and we just completed the first 100 days of the Warren Administration. What are you most concerned or excited about?

    John:

    • Finding the bottom of the US stock market.
    • Concerned because there is further to go.
    • Excited because of my short positions.

     

    (Listen, I can see that she is trying to do good things for humanity:  Free healthcare, tuition, and so forth will help people.  But, ahem, it isn’t free, is it.  Taxpayers pay for it.  So, the stock market "don’t likey".)

    Despite one’s political leanings, and there are a lot of interesting ideas being kicked about, the market will hate a flirtation with socialism.  The market is probably off 20% from November 2020 (or its previous high if it became obvious she was winning earlier than November). Many analysts in April 2021 are looking for a bottom.  They are early.

    Remember the Obama recovery? (in RED below, it's the only one where the recovery is obviously not symmetrical.) While he shouldn’t be blamed for the financial crisis he inherited, he immediately moved to work on healthcare while we were in the depths of the crisis.  Taxes increased, and regulations expanded.  We can see how that recovery was different than any other in recent history, drawn around 2011:

    Picture1

    via calculatedriskblog

    I doubt that Warren will do any better with the economy and I fear she will do worse.

    Thinking about how inaccurate political polling has become, I believe economic forecasting errors have also risen dramatically. Formerly reliable indicators and data points seem less reliable in today's market. How are you addressing this reality?

    Statistical analysis is relatively easy and can be learned in a few college classes.  Forecasting is maddeningly hard and often largely based on the forecaster’s training, assumptions, biases, and experience.

    What happened to the notoriously inaccurate polls of 2016? 

    Party affiliation, likelihood of voting, age, sex, state of residence all affect candidate choice — even the most careful survey will find that the sample pool is different than the total voting population.  All pollsters adjust their sample demographics to what they assume the voting population is.  But how many of each will show up on the big day?

    Many pollsters in 2016 assumed they could use the turnout in 2012.  The election had a large black, young, liberal turnout … are we surprised given the first black U.S. president was elected?  Did we think Hillary would get the same response?  Most pollsters did, but does that make sense?  Several pollsters who saw Trump as having a decent chance were publicly describing this specific statistical error.

    Regarding economic forecasting:  It suffers from the same phenomenon.

    Example: we can dutifully correlate “yield curve inversion” to subsequent recessions.  And I read about this about 50 times a day when the curve inverts.  But let’s look a little deeper:

    • A simplified theory: 10-year Treasuries represent a market view of forward inflation. As such, we might suggest it’s a nice neutral point for Fed policy to set the Fed Funds rate.  (Maybe a little lower because we believe in term premium but let us not split hairs.)  If the Fed pushes up short rates higher than this, it’s hitting the breaks.  They tend to overdo things, causing recessions (occasionally on purpose?).
    • Do we believe that 10-year Treasuries still represent a market view of inflation? There are reasons to be suspicious, with QE now affecting long rates and a strange influence on foreign buying from markets with negative real rates.
    • If long-rates are depressed below that of long-term inflation expectations, then I for one lose faith in the usefulness of the indicator.
    • (For what it's worth, I think rates are set by the supply and demand for bonds. The supply is going through the roof given deficit spending.  I can reach no other conclusion that demand is growing faster. I suspect Dodd-Frank, Basel III and the like for creating new sovereign debt demand.  If someone has data on this, write to me!)

    Economic forecasting is an art best practiced by people who understand the economy.  Which means most of us should stop doing it.

    Peak: How will the trade war with China get resolved?

    John: It won’t.  Trump famously started his trade war tour with claims that it's easy to win a trade war with China because they have so much more to lose.  He thought they would be the first to resolve USMCA, the UK post-Brexit, Europe, and various Asian markets would follow … even India.

    He is correct they have more to lose … much more, since they hardly buy anything from us.  But to me, this was an obvious tactical mistake by the master negotiator.  President Xi feels no pressure.  His limo still has fuel, his meals are still exquisite, and there is no political pressure on him.  It would benefit their economy to cave to Trump, but they have no incentive.  They play the long game.

    Trump is right to pressure them and even to play hardball.  We might get real intellectual property relief.  It will be quite a slog … my prediction is there will be a string of broken promises, and once we have concessions they won’t live up to their end of the bargain.

    If Trump is really hard on them, they will just drag their feet for 5 years and try again.  It will shave a couple of percent off their GDP.  No one in China will complain.

    Peak: What is the long-term impact of Brexit?

    John: I fear the real result is to box Brussels into a difficult position.  The UK is leaving because politically the EU is too left-leaning and quick to impose their views on member countries.  The UK will survive this better than the EU will.  The only saving grace is that the UK was a reluctant participant in the first place … retaining the Pound as their currency.

    This does open the possibility, though, that the relations with one of our strongest partners improves.  US-UK relations are due to be renegotiated and this could be material.  In fact, to me this looks like the UK is trading in Europe for the US as their best buddy.   I think they will do fine. 

    Worry it hurts Europe.

    Peak: Is impeachment a threat to the stock market?

    John: Continue to believe this is political theater and not a serious impeachment case.  It's unclear what the charge is or whether the house will even take a vote.

    As an influence on the market, its probably already there.  For instance, if the impeachment effort dissolved, it would be enough for the stock market to eek up to new highs, maybe breakthrough.

    But if the market begins to believe that the Senate could actually convict … the market would react badly.

    Peak: Could the Turkey-Syria conflict spiral out of control?

    John: It could.  It’s not clear how badly this could hurt the US economy though.

    I doubt any of us really know what is going on behind closed doors.  The U.S. has no primary fight in that battle.  Turkey, Russia, and Iran all have strategic interests.  We have issues with all three, but if “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” what we are really all about is diminishing Iran’s influence.

    We will not be obvious about what we want.  It will not be public what is being said to Putin and Erdogan.  It will be a quagmire of deception and influence.

    But it won’t shave multiple percents off our GDP or cause our stock market to drop 10%. (If it does, BUY)

    Peak: Recessions are typically not formerly declared until months after they actually began. What is the probability the U.S. economy is in a recession by next June that would impact the 2020 election?

    John: The economy is strong, unemployment low, confidence high.  There are small snippets of bad news that come out all the time and are ignored by the stock market.

    The question implies, I think, that GDP would decline both in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2020. 

    The combination of full employment, strong profitability, and very low rates rarely ever happens.  When you are at the summit of a mountain, every path leads downhill.  It's not that things aren’t good, they are.  It’s just that it’s hard to see them improving much from here … every macroeconomic variable is maxing out.

    Certainly, it could happen.  After many months of >200K new payroll, we are reaching what could be called full employment.  We have worked our way through a shadow economy of functionally unemployed, returning people to the workforce that was shed in the 2008  financial crisis (they weren’t retired after all). Interest rates are of course very low.

    It would take more than this to really hurt the stock market though.  Over the long-term, it’s surprising how S&P forecast eps yield are tracked by 10-year Treasuries.  

    • That forward eps yield is now 177/3022=5.9%! Even the dividend yield is 1.9%, ahead of the 10-Year’s 1.8%.  
    • While I don’t expect the eps yield to fall to 2% (which means the P/E ratio would head to 50x!), it is reasonable to think in this environment (strong economy, strong earnings and growth, and paradoxically very low rates) the multiple should be above average, and it’s not.

  • 90th Anniversary of Black Thursday

    This past Thursday was the 90th anniversary of Black Thursday, a day when sellers on Wall Street panicked and closed approximately 13 million shares on the NYSE … causing 5 billion in immediate losses and spurring the Great Depression, easily the worst stock market crash in US history. 

    GettyImages-51311238-585d7e163df78ce2c31d3706

     

    With 90 years of education, technology and progress under our belts, we can look back at their mistakes assuming that it could never happen again – but could it? 

    The years prior to 1929 were filled with post-WW1 optimism and massive speculation. The combined net profits of 536 manufacturing and trading companies in the first six months of 1929 showed an increase of 36.6% over 1928, itself a record half-year. Rural Americans flocked to cities to take part in the excess of the Roaring Twenties. Stock prices were rising and there was massive economic growth. Like many 20 years olds, the '20s was a period where Americans felt invincible, right up until October 24th of 1929. We almost made it out of the decade.  

    On the day the 1929 Crash started, 11% of the Dow's value was lost by the opening bell. There was so much trading that the ticker tape reports were backed up. Traders had no idea of the true value of the stocks. Panic.  Suddenly, 5 billion dollars was gone, along with optimism and trust in the system. By Black Tuesday, several stocks sat without buyers and the Dow drops another 12%.  Collective confidence shattered.  Psychological traumas compounded until there was widespread economic PTSD.  Uncertainty spread like wildfire. Owners of businesses were unsure if they could get credit, workers were uncertain of job prospects or whether they'd get paid. As a result, consumption dropped, businesses failed, banks followed, and shortly thereafter, so did the Great Depression. 

    From the peak of the Dow (September 3, 1929) to the bottom of the Great Depression (July 8, 1932) the Dow lost 90% of its value. 

     

    Human Nature is Human Nature

     

    We've since instituted many measures to protect businesses, banks, and consumers, including measures to suspend trading in periods of rapid decline (like the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934). As well, we have a better understanding and tracking of economic barometers like car sales, real estate, etc. 

    The reality is that in various scales and timeframes human traders undergo the same issues time and time again. It only becomes a talking point when it becomes painful enough. 

    It shouldn't take mass unemployment and economic contraction for us to understand the dangers of speculation, the dangers of human fear, greed, and discretion, and the dangers of poor economic theory. 

    Human fear and greed will likely play less of a role in markets going forward.  Increasingly more of trading volume is algorithmic.  And increasingly more of the decisions are made with AI using more data and shorter time frames.  As a result, while I expect increased volatility, I also expect increased opportunity.

    Keep in mind that there is a difference between guessing and knowing … and knowing is more profitable.  The corollary is: if you don't know what your edge is … you don't have one. 

     

    If You Don't Know What Your Edge Is You Don't Have One _GapingVoid

     

    Here's to a great last few weeks of 2019!