Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 14th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Lessons From 2020’s Markets

    The idea that the market is not the economy has been made very clear over these past months. While businesses continue to shutter or (if they're lucky) slowly re-open, the stock market has rallied immensely since the initial crash – in large part due to governmental efforts. The markets are so confusing right now that CNBC has given up and created a new type of market – the kangaroo market … I assume implying "jumpy" volatility. 

    IMG_3657

    The rally has only served to increase the uncertainty as people hold their breath waiting for the drop… For all that waiting, "dumb money" has been beating a lot of "intelligent" investors.

    I found an interesting visualization that shows the performance of the S&P through the performance of its underlying stocks. 

     

    via Chartfleau

    As you watch the video you can see that most of these underlying stocks are struggling – but they're being propped up by a relatively small number of stocks, including the likes of tech giants, the gold mining company Newmont Corporation and the HVAC company Carrier Global. 

    While many funds still struggle, novice investors and day traders listening to the advice of "buy low, sell high" have made staggering gains. 

    I'm not encouraging a back-to-basics approach to trading, but I think it is a good reminder that sometimes, as Da Vinci said, "simplicity is the ultimate sophistication." 

    Being in Fintech, I'm always paying attention to the newest "sophisticated" technologies, looking for a new edge – and that's valuable – but you can't throw out the baby with the bathwater. 

    So, I find myself looking for what's timeless (instead of timely) in what others are doing. 

    At a Genius Network meeting recently, Brian Tracy mentioned two key questions he asks himself (before writing a book) that I think are very insightful. 

    Would this work 20 years from now? Would this have worked 20 years ago?

    Tools and techniques change… why often doesn't matter.

    The truth is, if you don't know what your edge is … then you don't have one.  

    On a related note, if nothing is working … doing nothing is an option!

    Hope that helped. 

  • Talking AI, Analytics, and Trading With IBM

    I'll be speaking at an IBM Webinar on June 18th. The focus is on using AI, analytics, and advanced computing to improve trading research. Click here to sign-up. 

    IBM_BSFS_Webinar_SpeakerSocialTiles_LinkedIn_1200x628_Howard Getson

  • Solid Advice from MMA fighter Chael Sonnen

    Chael Sonnen is a famous retired mixed martial artist. He was also a coach on the show The Ultimate Fighter. 

    The advice in the video is fantastic – whether you're fighting in the ring or your own personal battles. 

     

    via UFC

    Silencing the voice in your head that says "you can't" is impossible, but ignoring the voice, and learning to compete with it is entirely possible. 

    Failure is an option, but it's the only option available if you don't try. Motion begets motion. And, with persistence, failure can be a stone on the path to eventual success. 

    Onwards! 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 7th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Are You A Maverick Or A Heretic?

    I have a tents problem. I keep buying tents, but I never go camping. Just kidding – I don’t own a tent. I have a tense problem – because I’m so excited about the future and what’s possible that I sometimes lose track of what’s been actualized "in real life" already.

    FutureFocus2

    Once I’ve thought it, it becomes real for me. Once I’ve figured it out and told it to someone … on some level, it's already done. And, I’m probably moving on to the next idea or challenge in my head (like: And what would that make possible?).

    I think this is common among (to use a Kolbe term) Quick Starts. I love being around entrepreneurs because a lot of them are Quick Starts, and they share this future-focused perspective. The problem, however, is that when you say something’s possible that hasn’t been proven yet, the average person responds with “no it’s not.”

    I’ve seen the pattern over and over, both in my own company and in my friend’s companies. At my company, we have a lot of data scientists – and they’re almost all naturally pessimistic. Which makes sense; if you were going to hire a personality type to be a scientist, you’d want someone who didn’t believe their hypothesis until they’ve proven it. It’s the right personality for the job, but it doesn’t mean they’re right, and it certainly doesn’t mean that approach is right for the visionaries.

    I’m not telling everyone to be visionaries. What I am saying is, if you’re naturally a visionary, feel free to embrace it, but surround yourself with people who keep you grounded in reality. We’d never have innovation if it wasn’t for you, and innovators wouldn’t ever get anything done if it wasn’t for other personality types.

    Information Is Beautiful put together an interactive list of famous ideas rejected that were later proven correct. You can filter by industry – Astronomy, Biology, Engineering, Mathematics, Medicine, Physical Sciences – and by other factors like how long the originator was a pariah, how they were treated due to their idea, and when the idea was formally adopted. Click to see the interactive version. 

    Screen Shot 2020-04-12 at 10.25.14 AMvia Information Is Beautiful

    In 895, Al-Razi believing a fever was a natural defense mechanism got him beaten.

    In 1592, Giordano Bruno believing the Sun was one of many stars got him killed. Shortly after, Galileo Galilei was imprisoned for believing the earth wasn’t the center of the solar system.

    Losing some of the stakes, in 1884 and 1903 respectively, Nikola Tesla and the Wright Brothers were ignored and rejected for their technological innovations.

    Even today you can see the initial response to visionaries like Peter Diamandis or Elon Musk.

    The status quo is comfortable, but if you’re standing still you’re moving backward.

    Are you a maverick or a heretic? You won’t know until you see it to the end. You may experience failures, but that’s the experience for your next endeavor.

    "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." – Thomas Edison

    Onwards!

  • A New Era In Spaceflight

    “Today a new era in human spaceflight begins as we once again launched American astronauts on American rockets from American soil on their way to the International Space Station, our national lab orbiting Earth…The launch of this commercial space system designed for humans is a phenomenal demonstration of American excellence and is an important step on our path to expand human exploration to the Moon and Mars.” – NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine

    Yesterday, SpaceX teamed up with NASA to launch a historic space flight … sending astronauts Robert Behnken and Douglas Hurley on the "Crew Dragon"  to the Internal Space Station. Today, they officially docked on the ISS.  

    It's the final test flight before the Crew Dragon is certified for operational, long-duration missions to the ISS.

    Crew-Dragon-Spacecraft-Launchvia NASA

    This is the first time a private vehicle has carried astronauts into orbit – and is undoubtedly an important step in the future of spaceflight … and space-travel. 

    As an added bonus, for them, they're escaping our current tumultuous times here on earth.

    When I was growing up, the space race caught the public's hearts and minds.  I was a kid, but I still remember watching the lunar landing and thinking how cool that was (and it still is)!

    Think about what this makes possible!  Lots of it in our lifetimes.  Even more, if you allow yourself to dream a little.

    In the past decade, rockets, space stations, satellites, etc. were often just an afterthought or a small filler news item.  Meanwhile, A.I., Cloning, Voice Recognition, 3D Printing, Drones, and other technological advances were sexy attention-getting topics. 

    Recently, that has changed.  The space race is getting hot again.  Resources are pouring into this area, and SpaceX's launch is proof that we are making progress (and probably altering life's history). 

    You can watch the astronauts dock on the ISS below. Warning, docking is a slow process, and the video is 4 hours long. If you skip 3 hours and 33 minutes in, you can watch the astronauts board the ISS. Take a look.  

     

    via NASA

    With all the struggle and strife, it feels good to experience something on a scale like this. 

    Spaceflight is captivating again. Teachers can use this to excite students and create the next generation of engineers and astronauts.

    Passion in the sciences is important, and successes like this ignite passion in more than just space exploration.

    We live in exciting times …Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – May 31st, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Here’s How Time Works Now…

    At this point, time feels like an illusion. My son, Zach, was recently musing on how nebulous time has felt during quarantine … ebbing and flowing between passing too fast and lasting an eternity. 

    But, what does he know?! At 50+ years in age, time flows much differently than it did in my youth…

    Right? It's not just me?

    Eli Grober wrote a piece for McSweeney's titled "Here's How Time Works Now". It is conspicuously fitting. 

    Here at Time, we’ve made a few changes you may already be experiencing that we think you should know about. Please see below.

    A Minute

    A minute used to be sixty seconds long. We thought this could be spiced up. A minute can now either be one hour, or it can take 3.5 seconds. We hope you enjoy this new feature.

    A Day

    You may remember that a day used to take place over the course of 24 hours. We felt this was too much. A day is now over the moment you first ask yourself, “What time is it?”

    It does not matter what time it actually is when you do this. As soon as you ask or think, “What time is it” for the first time that day, even if it is still ten in the morning, it will suddenly be eight at night. Does that make sense?

    A Week

    A week was once measured over the course of seven days. Our testing showed that this has been way too short, for way too long. So we made a big adjustment: a workweek now takes an entire year. From Monday to Friday, you will feel like it’s been (and you will actually age) an entire year. This is non-negotiable. This brings us to…

    A Weekend

    A weekend doesn’t exist anymore. You will go to sleep on Friday and you will wake up on Monday with a vague memory that you may have watched an entire TV show (every episode, every season) sometime in the last 48 hours.

    Read the Full Article via McSweeney's

    What year is it?

  • The Power of Asking The Right Questions

    There's immense power in asking the right questions. 

    Finding the right answers can be valuable too – but I'd argue finding the right questions is more important than finding the right answers. 

    To some extent, if you ask the right questions, the answers don't matter as much as how easy it was to find appropriate answers, proof of progress, or meaningful momentum.

    I shot this short video on the power of asking the right questions. Check it out. 

     

    The exercise of asking the right questions is really an exercise in the power of framing – of digesting or accessing information differently. There's power even in the reframing of the same question:  "How do I survive the pandemic shelter-in-place quarantine?" vs. "In what ways has the pandemic shelter-in-place quarantine improved my relationships (or productivity, or health)?" 

    In my experience, asking someone what they want often results in a response about what they don't want.  Yet, when the obstacle becomes the path forward it becomes easier to find the "hidden" gift.

    You control what you make things mean and how things make you feel. In many respects, this is the difference between feeling sad or happy or feeling like a victim versus someone in control of their destiny.  Your ability to control your perception is the difference between feeling like life happens to you or for you. 

    It's the same when tackling a research problem. When I hear "it can't be done" my first thought is usually "It can be done … just not the way you were thinking about it."

    The most important advances in society were impossible until they weren't.  The examples are too numerous to list.  But imagine telling someone in the middle ages that you could communicate with people around the globe in real-time, while seeing their faces, and sharing documents.  They'd try you as a witch faster than you could say "Zoom!" 

    The term Moonshot, in a technology context, is an ambitious, exploratory, and ground-breaking project that was considered to be impossible (like going to the Moon).

    Success is often a function of using Moonshots to set direction, then asking the right questions, being willing to see things differently, and finding a way to move in the right direction while gaining capabilities and confidence.  As long as you are doing those things, the trick is to keep going until you get there.  The result is inevitable if you do those things and don't give up.

    Onwards!