We're currently operating on $6 trillion of stimulus. The Trump administration approved the first 4 trillion dollars, and Biden's administration added another $1.9 trillion. Around $3.5 trillion of that went to purchasing government securities. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury also printed another $2B in dollars (more than they produce in a normal year).
Here is an infographic showing the programs enacted to counteract the pandemic's economic impact.
These strategies make credit easier to get by growing the money supply and lowering interest rates with banks having more reserves. Without these and the Fed's other emergency measures, the economy likely would have crashed … but was it a "fix" … or did it just delay the inevitable?
In the short term, the stimuli did a pretty good job of creating liquidity, preventing a substantial market crash, and increasing faith in the system.
Markets became more erratic and harder to predict. And other ripples are starting to show in the economy.
Inflation: Temporary?
It's not hard to tell that prices have risen recently. But, while consumer prices have risen 2%, on average, investors continue to invest in treasuries and push the price of 10-year yields down to where they were in February of last year. That seems to imply that despite inflation and stimulus, investors still have faith in the Fed.
The hope would then be that the inflation is transitory and not a long-term effect of the stimulus.
It's possible that this inflation is the result of a post-Covid demand surge (and not the beginning of a larger trend). You can also assume that the surge in prices of airfares, hotels, and sports games will drop once they become "normal" again. And, even if they don't, if wages don't rise with that new demand, it's easy to picture demand returning to normal.
The last time the Fed created money on a similar scale (the Great Recession), high long-term inflation didn't materialize, so it might not happen again.
Conclusion
I think it's unlikely that we see another 1970s style surge – and I think it's equally unlikely we see major deflation. With that said, I still don't think we've seen the end of the effects of the pandemic and the pandemic stimulus either.
One of the practical results of the Fed's bond purchases is that it creates money to finance the gigantic debt run up by Congress. With the national debt at almost $25 Trillion, it gets harder to pick a measuring rod of financial health that isn't woefully inefficient. The idea of "sound money" or a sustainable fiscal path seems increasingly questionable. But, if you believe in Modern Monetary Theory and in the United States' amazing ability to borrow, it's possible that there truly is no worry. Japan is a potential example of that – with a debt-to-GDP ratio of double the U.S.
So, even if inflation continues, it's hard to judge how bad a sign it is.
Whether or not there's a crash tomorrow (or 7 years from now), at some point, we know there will be a "correction."
Both of my children are adults now. It's strange to consider them fully-functioning autonomous adults – because I remember their childhood like it was yesterday (like worrying whether the soft spot on their heads would ever fill in and harden up, or if they'd ever stop sleeping with a nightlight).
Today, they're men doing great things … and I get to watch and be proud of them. I also get to be proud of my role in their growth and proud of passing down the wisdom of my dad, and his father, and the rest who came before me.
I also get to be excited because my oldest is about to have a child. Meaning the chain of education continues, and the wisdom of each generation builds upon and becomes greater than the last.
Three Generations of Getsons
As I come to grips with becoming a grandpa, I think about my children's grandpa – my father.
It has been over 20 years since my father died … Crazy how time flies! He was my best friend and an amazing mentor. His vision for what I could become helped shape and inform my goals, my accomplishments, and yes, me.
For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, my dad came down from the stands onto the field. He hugged me and told me that he knew I could do it. Then, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was a little disappointed? "Disappointed?" I asked. "But, Dad, I won." He looked at me and said, "Winning is great … but you didn't throw a personal best." He was proud, and he loved me. He recognized that winning was important … but he wanted to remind me that the other throwers weren't my real competition.
In life, to be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself; and we both knew I could do better.
My Dad believed in setting high standards. He taught me that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards. Why? Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted or complacent.
One of his favorite sayings was, "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal." This applies to many things. For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them.
As time goes on, I recognize how much of my Dad is in me. And, likewise, how much his father was a part of him … and how parts of all of us have somehow become a part of my children.
Many of the lessons he taught me became the lessons I taught my children – and my company. It's easy to focus on the big stories and the big lessons – but as I look back and consider what had the biggest impact, it was what happened in between … It was his incredibly consistent and unconditional love and his focus on what was possible.
The standards I hold people to are high, and it can be tough for them to meet those standards. Hopefully, they understand that it's because I love them (as my dad loved me) and that I see the greatness in them and available to them.
I like to think each generation becomes better (as people and parents) due to the cumulative experience of the generations that came before them.
We stand on the shoulders of giants.
I look forward to seeing how my grandchildren turn out, and how little pieces of me and their great-grandfather show up.
The Global Economy is more complex than I could ever explain in a single blog post. But one of the simplest ideas to understand is that trade and commerce are the foundation for the Global Economy.
Trade between states, nations, and continents is how you end up with innovation, global increases in prosperity, and resistance to the consequences of famine, natural disasters, and even pandemics.
But, the wants and power dynamics of these different entities can get complicated. There are many intergovernmental trade barriers.
That's where trade blocs come in … Two you likely recognize would be NAFTA (now USMCA) and the EU.
Trade blocs are meant to reduce trade barriers between participating entities but are sometimes controversial for their potential consequences. For example, they can result in rival groups, overly benefit certain countries, and potentially place undue pressure on certain exports.
The agreement isn't fully ratified (it is set to be fully launched by early 2022). Regardless, it will impact the global stage and create approximately $209B of income increase per year.
Despite all the rules and benefits that RCEP will have for its 15 nations, it doesn't contain any provisions for labor unions, environmental protection, or government subsidies.
As China continues to race against America to be the largest global superpower, the RCEP is a powerful tool in its arsenal.
There's a popular quote by Jim Rohn that states that you are the average of the 5 people you spend the most time with.
I think there's a lot of truth to that statement, but I also think it's true of larger groups.
The people and groups you spend time with influence who you are in the moment and over time. We all act differently within different groups of people, and that's part of why surrounding yourself with the right people is so important.
You can see this when you visit your childhood home after many years, or spend time with your parents, or visit your old college. It is easy to revert to who you were when you were most influenced by that person or environment.
For decades I have believed that you can predict a lot about your future based on who you choose to spend your present with.
That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical. Peer groups help us set higher standards for our behavior, aim higher in our aspirations, and they help us stay better focused and committed to big-picture goals.
I belong to several executive and business leader peer groups — groups that double as advisory boards, counselor’s offices, and idea factories. They allow me to see, hear, and discuss things I don't normally think about, talk about, or even notice. Peer groups bring blind spots to my attention and keep me fully connected to trends that are transforming the world on a global scale.
I love going to Strategic Coach because it has a unique approach to challenging people about how they think. After years in the program, the frameworks have unconsciously become a part of how I work and live day-to-day.
If I could challenge you to do one thing based on the lessons in this podcast, I'd encourage you to lay out the framework for where you will be in 25 years. Who do you want to be? How do you want to live? What are you committed to building? Who are you going to be spending more or less time with?
The next part is easy. With those things in mind, start taking steps in the right direction today.
Two weeks ago, I introduced Innovation Activity Centers which are the building blocks for my technology adoption model.
Today, I have a video and a worksheet for you that goes into the overarching Technology Adoption Model Framework. It explains how thoughts become things and how ideas scale with respect to capability, audience, and monetization.
The four base stages of this framework are: Capability –> Prototype –> Product –> Platform.
It's a great use of 20 minutes. Check it out.
While the Technology Adoption Model Framework stages are important, the ultimate takeaway is that you don't have to predict what's coming, only how human nature works in response to the capabilities in front of them.
It's a bit cliche, but to paraphrase Wayne Gretzky, you just have to skate to where you think the puck is going to be.
Desire fuels commerce. As money fuels progress, desire grows … and so does the money funding that path. As such, the path forward is relatively easy to imagine.
This isn't about predicting specific technologies, but rather about the capabilities people will want. I think of it as anticipating the natural path. It is easier to ride the wave than it is to fight nature.
Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desire and adoption.
It isn't really about building the technology, rather it is about supporting the desire.
If you understand what is coming, you don't have to build it, but you can figure out where you want to build something that will benefit from it.
This model is fractal. It works on many levels of magnification or iteration.
What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.
For example, as a Product transforms into a Platform, it becomes almost like an industry of its own. Consequently, it becomes the seed for a new set of Capabilities, Prototypes, and Products.
SpaceX's goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now … but once it's achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.
This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them.
In the video, I walk you through several examples of companies, their innovations, and how they fit into each stage. I even used Capitalogix as an example.
I'm also attaching a fillable PDF of the form we used so that you can run through this with your business as well.
As I continue to refine and work with this framework, I look forward to improving it and sharing it with you all.
As the world continues to change faster and more dramatically, this framework will help you anticipate changes, and it will also help you take advantage of them.
If you have any questions or comments about the idea, or how to implement it, feel free to reach out.
My mother watches the news religiously. To her credit, she watches a variety of sources and creates her own takeaways based on them. Regardless, there's a common theme in all the sources she watched – they focus on fear or shock-inducing stories with a negative bias. As you might guess, I hear it when I talk with her.
While I value being informed, I also value things that nourish or make you stronger (as opposed to things that make you weak or less hopeful).
Negativity Sells.
Sure, news sources throw in the occasional feel-good story as a pattern interrupt … but their focus skews negative. History shows that stories about improvement or the things that work simply don't grab eyeballs, attention, or ratings consistently.
The reality is that negativity sells. If everything were great all the time, people wouldn't need to buy as many products, they wouldn't need to watch the news, and this cycle wouldn't continue.
It's worth acknowledging and understanding the perils our society is facing, but it's also worth focusing on the ways humanity is expanding and improving.
As a brief respite from the unending doom and gloom of mainstream media, Information Is Beautiful has a section of their site focused on "Beautiful News".
It's a collection of simple data visualizations for positive trends, it's updated daily, and can be sorted by topic.
The law of averages is a principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average.
Take, for example, flipping a coin. Should you get 5 "Heads" in a row, you'll assume the next one must be "Tails" despite the fact that each flip has a 50/50 chance of landing on either.
Even from this example, you can tell it's a flawed law. While there are reasonable mathematical uses of this law, in everyday life, this "law" mostly represents wishful thinking.
It's also one of the most common fallacies seen in gamblers and traders.
Perhaps you heard the story about how the U.S. Air Force discovered the 'flaw' of averages by creating cockpits based on very complex mathematics surrounding the average height, width, arm length, etc. of over 4,000 pilots. Despite engineering the cockpit to precise specifications, pilots crashed their planes on a too regular basis.
The reason? With the benefit of hindsight, they learned that very few of those 4,000 pilots were actually "average". Ultimately, the Air Force re-engineered the cockpit and fixed the problem.
It's a good reminder that 'facts' can lie, and assumptions and interpretations are dangerous. It's why I prefer taking decisive action on something known, rather than taking tentative actions about something guessed.
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Three Generations of Getsons
