Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Tech Company Layoffs

    For all the drama at Twitter, they're not the only ones experiencing layoffs in the tech industry. Though, Elon is now (supposedly) trying to renege on his severance packages.  

    Tech-layoffs-2022-MAIN-1via visualcapitalist

    Meta and Amazon saw even steeper layoffs than Twitter. Is this a result of overhiring during the tech boom, or a sign of dire times? Time will tell.  

    Stated reasons are economic uncertainty and poor performance, we're also seeing unsuccessful departments downsize – like Alexa. 

    To help allay economic fears, payroll and wage data from the U.S. government are exceeding expectations, and the country’s unemployment rate is close to a half-century low. As well, tech jobs account for 3% of the workforce – and many of those laid off will be picked up by smaller companies. 

    Even if the layoffs represent a short term reaction to what tech companies are seeing, hearing, or otherwise experiencing … they won't necessarily translate to long term bad news for our economy. 

  • Reaching Your Goals In The New Year

    Two weeks ago, I shared an article about creating your annual plan (and how Capitalogix does it).  Last week, I shared how to set your goals higher and envision a bigger future for yourself and your business. 

    This week I want to talk about how I set and meet my goals.  Clearly, I'm a big-picture guy … but it's important to think about the coming year as well.

    I think about it a bit like using a map.  Even if you know your intended destination, you still have to start with 'where you are' to figure out the best way to get there.

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    There are seemingly infinite potential paths … but motion in a direction isn't really "progress" if it doesn't take you toward your desired destination.

    To start with, resolutions only work if you actually "want" to make them happen.  It's one thing to hope that something magically falls in your lap; it's another to want to put in the work. 

    With that being said, here are some tips. 

    • Focus on What You Want.
    • Focus on Why You Want It.
    • Focus on Ways You Might Get it.
    • Focus on Evidence of Progress.

    Below, I'll take you through an example of each of the four steps.

    Moving Towards a Solution, Rather Than Suffering From the Problem.

    Before I got back into my health, my first instinct was to think, "I need to lose weight."  Knowing that "you're fat" isn't helpful … my head quickly translates that to something a tad more positive, yet generic, like: "I choose to be healthy and vital, and to live a healthy lifestyle."

    Blah, blah … They are just words.  What I needed was something specific, measurable, and actionable.  How about: "I will lose 15 pounds and stop eating after dinner."  OK, but that isn't inspiring, and there isn't much for me to do.  I can do better than that.

    Figure-Out a Big Enough WHY, Rather Than Worrying about the HOW's.

    This post isn't about health and fitness; it is about the mindset and techniques you can use to set empowering goals and plans in any situation.

    So, while I could list many ways to lose weight (and I might even remember to do some of them), leveraging a driving force creates momentum.  In other words, the first step in "Doing" is knowing WHY you want something.

    I really do want to be healthy, fit, and vital (it sure beats the alternatives), and I want to have the energy and confidence to live and enjoy my life fully.  The world is my playground, and I want to take advantage of more opportunities to play with family and friends.  However, to do those things, I must find better ways to live a healthy lifestyle.

    The WHYs are just as important for business goals too.

    Focus on Potential Solutions, Rather than Problems or Challenges.

    Obstacles Exist.  The bad news: I don't eat fish, and I don't like vegetables (unless French Fries are vegetables).  My joints aren't close to healthy from years of violent contact sports.  I rarely get 7 hours of sleep, and who'd have thunk it, but being a CEO of a startup is stressful.  The good news: is none of those things matter; and even if they did, it just would mean that I have a lot of room for progress.

    It is natural to focus on obstacles.  But most obstacles are surmountable – with a big enough WHY, even I'll start to eat vegetables.  Instead of dwelling on the limitations, use them as a reminder to focus on potential solutions.  They are beacons pointing the way.

    How do you do it?  To focus on solutions, you can make two action-based lists: one is of things To-Do … and another is of things Not-To-Do.

    Here are some of the sample To-Do Items:

    • I will drink more water than coffee.
    • I will stretch, or do basic calisthenics, on days that I do not go to the gym.
    • I will make a healthy shake as a meal replacement rather than a snack of min-meal.
    • I will focus on relaxation and meditation as much as I focus on strength & physical exercises.

    Here is the actionable list of Not-To-Do Items.

    • I will not buy new bigger pants or wear stretchy pants because of an expanding waistline.
    • I will not eat snacks out of their container – and will portion out what I want first.
    • I will not compare my current level of fitness to what I used to be able to do.  Instead, I will focus on my actions and improvement.

    Create Healthier Habits.

    It is easy to follow a routine.  So, here's another tip … make your routine better.  Here are some examples of things you could do to make being healthier happen with less effort.

    • Pre-sort your vitamins into daily doses, and keep them by the coffee machine.
    • Buy healthy snacks, like fruit, raw nuts, or organic energy bars (instead of chips).
    • Enjoy listening to music or a book/podcast during your "exercise time." Dedicating time to something doesn't mean you can't be multitasking.
    • Park at the end of the parking lot, so you get to walk.
    • Meet with friends at the gym or a hiking spot rather than at a bar or restaurant.

    You get the idea.  Get in the habit of looking for ways to create better habits.  What habits could you alter slightly to make a big difference?  Which things can you automate or outsource?

    For two books about the subject, I recommend Tiny Habits by B.J. Fogg and Willpower Doesn't Work by Benjamin Hardy. 

    Focus on Your Progress.

    In this case, it really is about the journey.  Instead of keeping track of how far you have to go … notice how far you've come.  Utilize an internal locus of control.  It is about creating energy, momentum, and a sense of possibility.  You may have a big, hairy, audacious goal in mind.  That's fine, as long as you realize that reaching each milestone along the way is still an accomplishment.

    • Find shoes that don't hurt your feet.
    • Pick a gym or a personal trainer that you enjoy.
    • Run more than two laps without stopping.

    It doesn't matter what they are … they all count, as long as you know that you are moving in the right direction.

    Summary

    The point of this exercise was not really to focus on fitness.  These techniques and goal-setting tools work in any situation.  The principles are:

    1. First, figure out what you want and why it is important.  Only focus on the few things that are actually important to you. 
    2. Second, find something you can do, right now, which moves you in the right direction.
    3. Third, notice which things create (rather than take) energy.  Spend your time on those, and automate or create routines to take care of the rest.
    4. Fourth, plan forward, but measure backward.  Set milestones so that you can recognize and celebrate your progress.

    In my business, this translates to having a mission and vision – it's what we want, why it's important to us, and a basic strategy to get there.  Then we create yearly "Big 3" goals that move us toward that long-term vision.  Then, the team creates SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely) and KPIs (key performance indicators) so they know where to spend their time, and what milestones tell them they're on the right track.

    It isn't magic, but it works.

    Hope this helped.

    If you're interested in the health aspect of it, here are a few more articles I've written on health. 

  • The Rise of the Intangible

    In the past, most profitable companies built or sold some sort of tangible product. The Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, land owners, etc.

    Over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, the leaders are in tech, IP, and other intangible assets. Here is a chart showing the changing weight of tangible and intangible assets as part of the S&P 500’s total assets between 1975 and 2020.

     

    Ds-tangible-vs-intangible-assets-1

     via visualcapitalist

    By VisualCapitalist’s definition, intangible assets are holdings that don’t carry any physical or financial embodiment. This includes R&D, intellectual property, and computerized information such as data and software. Today, intangibles are worth over $21 trillion.

    With technology becoming more ubiquitous, I think the trend will continue – which makes protecting your intangibles even more important. 

    Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors. Remember, however, that anything you get a patent on becomes public knowledge – so be careful with your trade secrets. 

  • Envisioning A Bigger Future

    Last week, I shared an article about creating your annual plan (and how Capitalogix does it).  This week, I want to talk more high-level about how we create a bigger future for ourselves, and next week I’ll talk about how I translate that bigger future into resolutions and actions. 

    The beginning of a new year is an excellent time for a fresh start.  While it’s always the right time to take the right action, the structure of a year-end is a helpful crutch and force function. 

    We look forward to what we will achieve – even though history says we rarely achieve everything we hope for.  Meanwhile, paradoxically, it is also true that we rarely achieve things we don’t hope for.  So, Hope!  It may not be a reliable strategy … but it beats the alternative.

    I’m excited about 2023.  Despite the abnormal market, the crazy headlines, and the still volatile political climate, we’re moving toward increased stability. 

    Even though I expect some volatility, we have become more accustomed to handling it (and we’ve become better at transforming its strategic byproducts into strategic benefits).

    On a different topic, think about how much progress we’ve made and how different the “new normal” has become.  For example, think about Zoom and remote work or how quickly our economy migrated online.  On many levels, what we are doing now seemed like science fiction, even just a few years ago.

    We are living in an age of exponential technologies and exponential possibilities.

    I commissioned this image from GapingVoid, to remind our team to keep shooting higher.

     

    How Can It Be Impossible If We're Already Doing It_GapingVoid

     

    Resilience, resourcefulness, and a worthy goal are the foundational keys to many entrepreneurial success stories.

    In the spirit of New Year’s Resolutions – I’ll add that a deliberate approach to goals is important too.

    I’m a big fan of picking a Big Hairy Audacious Goal (sometimes called a “BHAG”) and taking actions that move you in that direction. 

    I’m also a big fan of Strategic Coach’s Bigger Future exercise.  It is a 25-year planning exercise where you lay out your commitments and goals to yourself, your family, your career, and your legacy.  One of the keys to this is chunking high enough to name the roles, goals, and strategies you select with timeless language (meaning that the target words hold up even as you pivot and adjust your focus and actions).

    While doing this, I realized that my ideal next chunk of years involves taking Capitalogix to the next level (and beyond) through collaboration, cooperation, and joint ventures. 

    Once you know your long-term goal, it is relatively easy to plan the steps you need to achieve it.  Achieving smaller goals reinforces successes, builds momentum, and makes continued progress feel more likely.

    Extra points if you make them SMARTs (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-Bound). 

    Actions speak louder than words, and your words can distract you. 

    If your goal is to win first place at a competition, focus on the metrics of a first-place finish instead of the medal.  This makes the goal concrete and sets an internal locus of control for your victory.  This also means you don’t need to tell others about your goal too soon.  Studies show that when you announce your intention to achieve a goal in public, you decrease the likelihood of succeeding

    It’s okay to misstep, and it’s okay to get stuck – but recognize where you are and what you’ve done … and move forward. 

    Delayed gratification happens when you want something badly, but are not able to get it right away.  The result is often anger or frustration.

    Meanwhile, the mainstream media broadcasts a seemingly non-stop stream of messages screaming for immediate attention and gratification.  The result of that is not good either (for example, it can result in higher rates of obesity, drug abuse, and depression). 

    Don’t be fooled.  Overnight successes are rarely actually overnight successes (for long).

    It’s also important (once you’ve accomplished your goal) to set new goals. 

    Over the next 25 years, there are many people I want to impact – and many goals I want to accomplish.

    It hasn’t always been easy – but building Capitalogix has been an intensely rewarding passion.  It has been easier because I want what I want.  Make sure you know what you really want … it makes getting it much easier.

    I look forward to you all being a part of it as well.  Here’s to a successful 2023 and an even more successful 2048.  

    Onwards!

  • Another AI Art Gimmick

    There's a new trend of AI-generated profile pictures – using tools like avatar.ai.

    Below are some sample results my son, Zach, got after downloading an iPhone app called Lensa.  The company that makes it also offers a product called Prisma that is worth looking at as well.  He paid $4 within Lensa to generate these AI photos (for context, avatar.ai charges more than 5x as much).  He uploaded 17 photos from different angles (and with different expressions), and the app promised 50 pieces from 4 styles.

    What do you think of the results?  I thought some of them were surprisingly good. 

     

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    Some were not so good … (or at least outside my zone of artistic preferences).

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    After seeing his, I'll admit I got curious and made my own. 

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    To be honest, these apps are still volatile … meaning, sometimes they are good enough to seriously impress – but they also can underwhelm from time to time.  Check out DALL-E for more examples of the dynamic range of possibilities and results.

    Regardless, I am impressed with AI art's progress and momentum.  Recently, generative AI has gotten a lot of hate (along with the hype), nonetheless, people are talking about it (meanwhile AI art is still not as polarizing as Kanye). 

    The reality is, most of these tools still are an elegant use of brute force.  Nonetheless, I am bullish.  Hardware and software are getting better … and when fed more data, generative art depictions get better as well. 

    The uses continue to get more elegant and complex as time passes … but we're still coding the elegance. 

    For more on this topic: 

  • Creating Your Annual Plan

    It is that time of year, again.  We are in the midst of our annual planning for 2023.

    The process is relatively straightforward.  We start by deciding what the company's three highest priority goals are. With those goals as the base, each department (and manager) creates a big three that represents what they can do to reach the company's big three. From there we dive into quarterly rocks, SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, actionable, relevant, and timed), as well as the explicit tactical steps it will take to accomplish what we set out to achieve. 

    The meetings are going well.  There is a lot of back-and-forth idea sharing, negotiating, and priority setting.

    Nonetheless, I had a sneaking suspicion that sometimes what seemed like a dialogue, was really multiple monologues. 

    The reason for the disconnect (or misconnect) was that the participants had fundamental beliefs, at a higher level than we were discussing, that were at odds with each other. 

    I shot two videos that I think help teams get to alignment.

    Thinking About Your Thinking

    The first discusses several techniques to enhance your decision-making. 

     

    One of the ideas is something called "Think, Feel, Know." Basically, it explains that you have to deal with superficial thoughts before getting to deeper feelings. Then, you have to deal with those feelings before you get to "knowing". 

    Another technique discussed in the video involves adding time to look for "insights" after working on something.  Those insights are often the seeds for something greater.

    Chunking Higher

    The second is on how to chunk high enough that you can start from a place of agreement.  Exploring distinctions from there is relatively easy.

    I'll add one more concept for good measure … Start with the end in mind. Alignment happens in stages.  Before you can truly get alignment on what to do next, you have to get agreement and alignment about where you are and where you want to go.

    With that said, another important component of meaningful communication is a shared understanding of a common language.  Words can mean different things to different people.  Simply agreeing on a "word" is different than agreeing on a common meaning.

    To summarize these concepts:

    1. Make sure you have a common language
    2. Begin with the end in mind
    3. Start with the highest level of agreement
    4. Make distinctions from there

    Hope that helps.